NDP Take Tuxedo in Historic Byelection Win

 

Some ridings are so consistent in supporting one political party that other parties put in a placeholder candidate often from outside the area. The sacrificial goat is to show the flag but no real resources are thrown into it as there are more winnable ridings in need of people and money.

Byelections are where a lot of resources can be thrown in. The focus is often on the individuals running and less on the overall party and leadership, The NDP chose Carla Compton to run against three other candidates including PCs, Liberals and Green Party, The PCs had a contested nomination and lawyer Lawrence Pinsky was chosen. Liberal chose foster parent advocate Jamie Pfau and Green Party leader Janine Gibson ran as well. In the end it was not even close. 

Carla Compton won by 600 votes with less than 50% turnout. PCs will be shocked this morning and are blaming a snap election but they knew Heather Stefanson was leaving and have been sleepwalking about the leadership race, policy direction or figuring out what happened in the general election and how to be relevant again. The party seems on the verge of a takeover by less established forces on the right. Perhaps they are hoping for some Alberta or Saskatchewan conservativism to bring them success again. However, even Saskatchewan after a two terms in office is trending downwards. It is the inevitable result of  having a record warts and all.

The NDP is solidifying it's popularity now. Wab Kinew is trying to look and act the part of premier. There has not been a major scandal or failure so far that can't still be tied back to the previous government. It won't always be that way. A major storm and poor response, a failure tied to present health policies, crime that is tied to inaction now will whittle away at support. There is an expiry on governments in terms of creativity and energy. They can revitalize but it requires new people in and not just an appearance of change but actual change.

The present government will face no real opposition for some time to come. The best bet for them to get things done is now but change can be glacial. Approving new hospital work can take years to get underway. In many cases, a successful project is completed after a political party is defeated and the incoming party receives the rewards. Examples can be hydro projects, water diversion works or urban development programs. A successful government just tries to make sure they articulate an agenda and set out to it successfully. Even when they do something successfully, it might not be remembered at election time.

For the next three or so years, Tuxedo will be in NDP hands. It will be up to the new MLA to build a team and resources there because in a general election, the party won't be able to send teams of people in as they during the byelection. It is possible that happens. But we can expect the Progressive Conservatives to re-build and if they can't win back seats like Tuxedo, they will spend a long time in the wilderness.

Wab Kinew Leads NDP to Government in 2023 Election

First of all congratulations are in order to Wab Kinew who led his NDP to a victory over the two term Progressive Conservatives. The NDP stuck on message about health care but also on not reversing some Heather Stefanson announced policy changes in the lead up to the election, mostly pertaining to fiscal. On issues such as searching the landfill, they were for it while PCs were against it. 

The complete collapse of the PCs in the election could be attributed to so many conservatives stepping down earlier, the difficulties in generating momentum for a third majority and the policies needed for it. A winning campaign was just not what ended up happening. It kept going more negative and evidence in Canada has shown over the decades that there is not nearly the taste for it here.

Some of the ads featuring past brushes with crime or unsavoury aspects of an NDP candidate probably did as much harm to Tories if not more. After a number of elections already, past behaviour of Wab Kinew has been part of the calculus of how people have voted already. It can be fair to ask to ask about the background of candidates but the electorate are more likely to assess on the most recent years for suitability if they have held office for a while. In other words, the attack on Kinew's background during an election likely drew more cynicism and probably was regarded as a distraction from the policy record of the government over seven years.

The amount of cabinet ministers who went down to defeat and the near defeat of Stefanson in her own riding is likely to have repercussions on the direction of the party.  Future and past leadership candidates are indicating early that they are not interested in the job. Some Tories lost their seats so running again for leadership might mean sitting on the sidelines unless one of their own steps aside for byelection.

In any event, Progressive Conservatives and Liberals will have at least four years of re-building ahead. Traditionally, Manitobans give a new government two terms so new leaders can expect to be in opposition up to 8 years. Certainly Kinew spent years in opposition himself before winning a majority. Such time allows for the leader and party to develop a strategy to win and govern. However, you can just as easily say that the electorate just gets tired of the governing party after two two terms and voters defeat governments rather electing governments. That is not to say the NDP or any new government doesn't have a mandate but it is worth considering how deep the support really is. On other words, a controversial agenda might sink a new government.

Expectations are high based on promises made by Kinew in the election. There may be some wiggle room such as when Gary Doer said the electorate could defeat the government if they did not fulfill their emissions promises. They didn't and Doer didn't take it to a vote but stepped down to let Greg Selinger lead his party to defeat. Voters will likely measure the new government in health outcomes, crime reduction and economic markers. There will be a honeymoon period but not an everlasting fountain of good will.

The instinct to concentrate power in the premier's office will be strong. Kinew has already said that the cabinet will be smaller. This is wise if only for the reason that parceling off responsibilities will dilute cabinet and the effectiveness of ministers. There are a lot of new people coming aboard. Most will have a tough time even knowing how to be a MLA and where the washrooms are in first months. Still, this is no excuse for taking all power and decision-making into the premier's office. 

It would be wise to strengthen the committees of the Legislature which have been extremely limited in recent years. It is one way to assess worthy cabinet appointees sometime later and a better way to suss out issues and sort out policies in a bipartisan format. It is a big mistake to have a caucus of 34 where the majority don't have anything to do.

The NDP and Wab Kinew have some room to maneuver as the other two parties begin a slow rebuild. It will be the public and expectations that will be a challenge even if the opposition in the house is blunted and smaller. It is hard to know what unexpected things can happen such as a deep recession, fire or flood or societal breakdown. It will be important to have competent people in place and a plan. There will be little patience for scandal or sub-standard performance.

Provincial Election 2023

Advance polls opened on Saturday, September 23 and there has been a fairly brisk turnout ever since. Tens of thousands have voted using the new scanner equipment instead of the old pencil and paper system. It remains to be seen if it can be counted sooner that the old way which was consistent and reliable but could take time.

TV stations, as we saw in the last civic election, can grow impatient and call and election so they can resume regular programming. And get it wrong.

The election has not suffered from a lack of debate. No matter what happens, the result will likely be something different in that the first elected premier will be a woman or indigenous man. And possibly a return to party status for the Liberals. It it is probable that two of those those things will not happen.

There are only so many competitive ridings of the 57 in Manitoba. Some are stalwart Progressive Conservative or NDP seats. Maybe only one can be said to be a steady Liberal seat in River Heights. This leaves suburban seats in Winnipeg as the focus of much attention as they have histories of voting different parties. 

In this election the Progressive Conservatives have a new leader as premier in Heather Stefanson. It is her first election after serving in cabinet including as health minister. Wab Kinew is a veteran in the house after building the NDP back up after the leadership of Greg Selinger. The Liberals also have a veteran leader in Dougald Lamont who won his seat in the former NDP leader Greg Selinger's riding in St. Boniface.

In recent decades, the attention on politics has been solidly on the leaders although no one directly votes for the leaders, they only vote for their MLA which may or may not be the leader. Local candidates can matter but aside from door to door, there are not a lot of ways to get noticed as not too many local debates are available nor profiles in community news papers which are rapidly disappearing. Podcasts is the only way I generally hear anything that is about individual candidates. Otherwise, I read their campaign websites.

Lots of MLAs/ministers stepped down this year so no matter what there will be a lot of new faces. And given the amount of promises made in the election there will also be a different direction that the province is going, presumably. It is worth noting that all of this is dependent on the economy. A recession could change all those tax cuts and program spending.

Some late polls have indicated a NDP lead. The lack of any Liberal or Green candidate in some ridings will make it harder for PCs to win in close ridings that they won in squeakers last time. The lack of incumbents in many PC ridings means more campaigning at home rather than helping other candidates as has happened in the past. As for the NDP, they have made direct appeals to past Liberal voters to vote for them to defeat the PCs. If the polls are any indication, it might be working. However, it will be hard to beat the Liberals in the three ridings they already hold.

Tuesday, October 3 is official election day. Voter turnout and which party motivates their voters could be a factor. Campaigns do matter and over the course of the election, momentum might have moved the electorate, especially in Winnipeg.

We'll find out soon enough how it turns out.

Looking Back 2022, looking forward 2023

The start of 2022 was still one mostly of lockdowns and loss. The previous Christmas was cancelled by many families because of severe outbreaks. Even this year my family was weighing the risks. We went ahead but wore masks until seated dining area was spread out. What else can you do? This year I have had Covid for second time and strep and I have been cautious and up to date with vaccines.

Our family is still reeling from the loss of our parents to Covid and an aunt who died while under restrictions due to continued outbreaks. No one wants anyone else to get sick in the family and among friends. And anyone who has gotten sick with some of the worst going on out there now knows it isn't just the sniffles.

And so it goes as the year closes, we struggle with effects of Covid. Even for the freedom lovers who want no restrictions or vaccines, getting sick or having people sick around them will affect their lives. Without being cruel about it, even a minister who preaches freedom who ignores their own health can end up dead. Viruses are not the only danger and denial won't overcome good and regular health checks.

We have been at war in our communities for the last three years. Perhaps it has been longer if you think about the dispute between urban, rural and northern, men and women, religion, language, race and whatever else seems to get our goat. Don't know that any of us are completely free of it. It is often a battle with ourselves. I've done it myself. And the last year or so, I have literally ended relationships because of the level of toxicity. I've resolved to try not to be toxic myself. It doesn't mean overlooking conflict but I will not to engage with it or fuel it.

It probably doesn't help with people in smaller and smaller tribes but mental and physical health doesn't last if family, work, church or community make you ill. Safety is so important for yourself and to escape someone else's unpleasantness. The story of the murders in the Ontario highrise sounds like someone's toxic nature grew to such a rage that it posed a danger to everyone. And eventually did. It is scary. How can you protect yourself?

The explosion in murders in Winnipeg though often seems linked to hard drugs and domestic abuse primarily. And the serial murders are a bitter reality of the vulnerability for women. The provincial government seems stuck with what to do about the lack of housing and hard drugs. Arresting and jailing addicts doesn't appear to end their addictions in prison. Manitoba's prisons are like an episode of Oz except for more murders.

The recent civic election had some elected officials wanting the election to only about about roads and potholes but the issue of crime, housing, drugs and murder is now impossible to ignore. It is hard to talk today about building the Peguis extension when the the city dump is being blocked by people in anguish over lost family. And the truth is that if it had been three police officers buried there, the chief would have never said there would be no attempt at recovery. His own force would have turfed him. Before the end of the day.

But let's not focus all on the bad even if it can seem overwhelming seeing and hearing it about it first hand ourselves. I think we can be glad that employment is at historically high levels. Wages, according to data, have gone up. Immigration is at levels not seen since confederation. Business investment is starting to grow. And residential units planned years ago are finally coming on stream now including the tallest residential tower in Winnipeg.

Of course this is countered by inflation and difficulty in finding workers. Add to that the high cost and availability of housing. The planning and the actual building of houses takes years. It isn't just zoning that takes time but finances, supply chains and contractors to build. Some student housing near the University of Manitoba has been in the planning and building stage for several years. Thankfully, it is coming on stream just as international student demand is exploding. However, the university has already been painfully slow on getting housing built on the abundant land it already has. Still, if you look up and down Pembina Highway there are more high rises being built than in many decades. Some are within the affordable level that students need as well as part of their financing package.

If Canada's immigration level goes up by 500,000 a year as forecast and we have a million foreign students across the county and we only have 300,000 housing units built a year, we have shortfalls already. And they get bigger every year. Starting plans now and having a multi-unit building up in six years will mean we still are scrambling for housing even as apartments and houses go up in the future. Moreover, spreading housing farther and farther from city centers will only stretch service further and further. Costs will go up.

For those thinkin the answer is to cut immigration and student intake, they should consider that business is already struggling to fill all positions including high paying ones. Unemployment is at lows not seen since the Second World War. Restaurants and family businesses are closing for lack of workers. And while pay increases could help, many businesses already do that with no takers either. It is workers choice out there. Many just ghost after applying or doing some shifts. There is just better opportunities out there.

Another few areas where we have seen problems in capacity in 2022 if healthcare, education and professional skills from IT to engineering. There has been too few people trained, too many retiring and too large an increase in need. The provincial government is begging for more health federal supports but there is no evidence that the the province won't just use it for tax cuts. Plus, there revenue situation looks to turn into a surplus in 2023 and yet they still look at the federal government for tax transfers. Presumably for ever more tax cuts. Sadly, tax cuts won't add more doctors. They don't come for the tax cuts.

In the debate about the Manitoba Clinic, a letter from a former doctor there said that both the NDP and the PCs limited the clinics from charging fee for service and having hospital privileges. Certainly, there has been a strategy over the years to limit how many people graduate from nursing, medical and diagnostic programming. Past government have recruited overseas rather than training people here. But rules changes have made it harder so that even trained nurses from other provinces are are finding it hard to move to Manitoba. Add it all up and healthcare reform is needed so that money that does arrive in the system has some accountability.

The election in 2023 provincially will mean that it is hard to avoid going before the media. It isn't impossible but someone like the Health Minister won't be able to stay unavailable as she often does now. Nor will the crime and drug issues be something that the province can blame the city or the feds for. Certainly there will be an attack on the NDP but the blame game going back several years has not moved the polls this time. The Tories are trying to hang a defund the police rap on the Wab Kinew but their own record on not funding the department of Justice falls on them alone.

The issue of drugs, crime and homelessness is something that requires real solutions. The shouts of one side to end capitalism and redistribute wealth and the other side to criminalize homelessness and addiction does not resonate. And it will be curious what sort of solution they come up with the library. Staff want to feel secure and activists want a library with no security checks. The activists got what they want and the result was murder. The librarians got what they want and only the lobby is open. Not great solutions.

The activists should lobby to be part of outreach at the library. That is doable. People who can do wellness checks, assist in arranging coffee, food, counselling, housing assistance and healthcare. The law and safety advocates should should lobby for measures that don't profile people and actually contribute to safe places rather than a security force prepared to make takedowns and arrests. Security measures at the door and inside the building along with outreach and assistance workers is the solution. How it could be anything else is beyond me? Extremist positions on either side have made matters worse.

 In 2023, I'm not sure how many Canadians are aware of just how fast some of the technology changes will be. In Norway, for example, all Hyundai cars sold in that country will be be electric. Canada is slower than that with the mandate that all cars sold be electric by 2035. However, that means over the next years massive infrastructure of charging stations will be built by businesses, homeowners and energy companies. In Winnipeg, it likely means we'll see a push for electric buses at a faster pace since this is the manufacturing hub. And you can expect all couriers and delivery vehicles like Amazon and Fed Ex trucks to be electric far quicker than anyone expects. 

Think of what this means just in Winnipeg. It isn't just emissions from cars but the roar of car, bus and truck engines will be ended after a hundred years. Electric cars just don't have that level of engine noise. It literally changes everything. Canada has just opened its first electric car manufacturer. It won't be the last. And from building batteries to mining lithium, Canada will have leading roles. The only place that lithium is mined in Canada is in Manitoba. Expect to see more of that.

Farmers will continue to have to innovate. While productivity, automation and digitization will help the businesses, there is a strong need to work electrifying farm vehicles, creating energy from the land, storing carbon in the soil and innovating fertilizer. Food security must be looked at with the problems demonstrated in the supply chain. We grow great vegetables in Manitoba. Something to think about when lettuce from California is not available.

We often work against our own best self interests out of fear, stubbornness, ideology, hatred or contrariness.  Presently, we have a government that is bent toward cutting tax. Not always but in general such as the education tax, However, they are far less clear when indicating how they will pay for it if we are to maintain a public education system. It isn't that they don't use tax support to leverage investment. For example, the province had given just under $5 million to support direct flights to Los Angeles via Westjet. The contract is reviewed every six months and money is only paid out if the flights themselves don't pay off. 

All evidence suggests that the TV and movie industry will benefit strongly from direct flights to LA,. The addition of three more soundstages in the city can and will bring in more productions. There is no sunlight in the positions of all three parties in the Legislature on support for the the industry. As it should be. Expect more and more people working in TV and film, gaming and entertainment in the next years.

I don't think anyone will regret 2022 ending, I know very few people who aren't doing something different this coming year. I certainly am.

Best to all in 2023, Let's hope for a recovery in more ways than one for the new year.

Crime and Safety in Winnipeg in 2022 Part 8

In past posts I have detailed what local, provincial and federal governments might do. There are plenty of things private citizens, organizations and companies can do as well to help with safety and reduce crime. Let's start on the individual level.

- Continue to support Bear Clan and Peace Walker teams. They are volunteers so provide them your support both in person and in donations. Find space for them to use. They are not police but they do so much to make people feel safe and supported. Osborne Village is the latest to engage this group. 

- Better video security at home, office and public spaces. It may not stop all crime but is a valuable preventative and investigative tool. Ensure that privacy issues and security of footage is abided by. It shouldn't need saying but cameras in bathrooms and change areas is not security. It is a violation. However, a camera looking out the front or back of your house or around your work or a public park are fine within the confines of privacy laws. And good quality cameras really do count.

- Shoplifting has not completely ended in liquor stores but checking IDs at the door and keeping door locked has stopped swarming, under the drinking age and habitual theft from happening. And when product goes missing, there is a good idea who took it. Cannabis stores have been well protected from the beginning. Regular stores are reluctant to operate with locked doors because there is a good percentage of lost sales from people annoyed by it. For liquor, cigarettes and cannabis, people just accept it if they want those products. However, given the fact that stores like 7/Eleven are closing in various places in Winnipeg, you have to wonder if the locked door policy pending ID will spread.

- They are ugly as can be but with so many windows being many businesses are turning to metal shutters. The plywood up on windows is an indication how bad things have gotten. Pre-pandemic it was more rare but with fewer people on the streets, this type of attack is costly. In these cases, cameras have likely caught what happened but damage is done when your window is destroyed and a slow response time means thieves are come and gone by the time police or security or business owner arrives. I imagine that is a lonely and sad time waiting for the plywood to open outside your shop. A metal gate might seem to be your only hope. Eventually areas start to look like Beirut though.

- Re-direct all package deliveries to local post office. Your front porch is an invitation to theft if you are not home to receive it. Want to keep your local post office alive, use it. If there are package lockers to receive goods, use them. Not surprisingly, people follow the Amazons trucks in Winnipeg. If you want your house to receive regular visits by thieves, this is the way to do it.

- Cars on streets are always vulnerable to theft, break-ins and the like. Some people in River Heights have gotten in the habit of leaving nothing in their cars and the doors open. That doesn't seem to stop the broken windows. Only police patrols and arrests eased the problem. But is has been consistent over the year in various neighbourhoods. In the 1970s many people had one car and it was parked in a garage. Now cars are parked end to end on every block of the city including places with double and triple garages. So many cars. A tracker can help with outright theft but vandalism is possible any time in public as well as parts theft. When possible, get parts printed with the VIN number. Don't leave anything visible on seats or console.

- Not sure how many times this has to be mentioned but don't hand out money to roadside panhandling. People have died on the road because of it and many others have likely been hurt by overdoses. Panhandling means people can bypass health and care services in favour of getting money that results in pandemic of overdose and rescue. Money for assistance should go to organizations who do make a difference on the streets. No one will stand on a corner if the result is zero money. Addiction means seeking cash. Our help has to come from different options.

- Support women's shelters. Women and children need to know there is a safe place to go. Domestic violence continues to be where we too high a rate of harm. Women shouldn't have difficulty getting to or finding places that are safe.

- Volunteer and donate. Food banks, safe walks, community clubs can always use help in people and money. Want safety in your area? Make it look like people live, work and have recreation there. Don't live in a fortress.

- Fix broken windows, cover over graffiti, maintain properties. Some places are repeatedly broken into and set fire to because no one cares for them. 

- Offer safe parking for bikes. What is the point of biking if it they are stolen every day? Make your business/residence a place where people can trust their bike will be there when they get back. This applies to schools, community clubs, apartments and condos, restaurants and everything in between. Riding bikes is something families do. When they put official bike trails in Assiniboine Park in the 1970s people used them and still do. But what if you want to go for ice cream and come back and find your bike gone? Do better. Have a secure lock-up area.

- Keep people apprised of what you are doing? Dating someone new? Let someone know. Selling something? Let someone know. It is easy to become a victim.

- Remember crimes can happen even when you are at home. Be aware that commercial crimes, blackmail, extortion and others things can come while in the safety of being at home. Have those discussion with seniors, teens, vulnerable people and for yourself, consult when you don't know.

Reclaiming our safety and reducing crime is going to be multi-pronged. Learn from what made you vulnerable to past security issues. But don't live in fear. 

Crime and Safety in Winnipeg in 2022 Part 6

From the provincial ledger, much can be done that is beyond the city to do. The levers of courts, social work, healthcare and oversight of policing is all at a provincial level. Housing and health are two main provincial responsibilities. The province has full authority here and both areas are important to a place like Winnipeg in crime and safety. The premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson has recently weighed in on the side of the police union.

A provincial election is coming soon. Here is what might be needed for crime and safety moves, especially in Winnipeg:

- There is a strong chance that the present government will run a law and order campaign. Some of what they want to do also lies in federal jurisdiction but support for hiring more cops might be an election policy. At the moment, with 4% of RCMP jobs left unfilled in Manitoba, it should be a priority to fill them. And questions asked why those positions are unfilled.

- If additional police are hired for Winnipeg with support from province, the real question is where? Patrol cars, beat cops, major crimes, CCTV? Not even sure the police administration or the union have made a case for where they need more boots on the ground. And to be sure there will be resistance from parts of the public not happy with today's policing.

- The present government seems not to know what to do with the drug and alcohol problem. They are unsuccessfully trying to use law and order measures without doing enough on the health and addictions part of the equation. There was an attempt during the pandemic to do more on mental health and that is progress. But everyone seems to push addiction on the streets which contributes to a growing number of people without housing. Safety and crime follow. More resources from the province on addictions and treatments along with support housing are needed. Restoration of single resident occupancy is only way to end homelessness.

- It is hard to know what the policy on provincial jails is in Manitoba. By all accounts some of the youth detention centres are closing as they are underutilized. At least in southwest Manitoba, specifically the Agassiz Youth Centre in Portage la Prairie. The RCMP reported 24% decrease in overall crime. We'll see how this looks in the next year but on the face of it, the stats were in line with what was happening even before the pandemic. In the north, there was an increase across the board for crime and the province is redirecting resources there. Bad as I feel for Portage, the province is right to do so. The north is under policed and needs more court and detention attention from the province. The overall provincial jail system is a tough place overall but it is probably no where near what is happening at Murder Mountain (Stony Mountain). That federal prison might be the worst in Canada. More on that in federal section of this post. However, back to provincial side of the jail system, there is capacity to hold youth offenders in remand detention and adults in both remand and jails if they pose a threat to society. There is no excuse for some people to be released on an undertaking when they are likely to repeat offences without an intervention.

- Parole and probation services can do better. We need a provincial parole board here in Manitoba. The province leaves it to the Feds but not every inmate is in federal custody. We need better assessment and tracking. We need parole officers and probation. We need halfway houses. We need social workers, training, job placement, heath supports, addiction supports. If this sounds expensive you know what is even more expensive? Prison time.

- Provincial housing is the worst housing in Manitoba and the province is the poorest landlord. This has been true under multiple government of both the major parties of NDP and PCs. Ending homelessness and making a dent in addictions means more focus in this area. Income supports, rules on major housing complexes having a variety of house sizes, ending renovictions and renovating older housing stock are all needed. Safety comes from people having a place of their own and crime reduction comes from support in jobs, training and basic needs.

- The perception of safety comes in part from action of the Crown Prosecutor. In Manitoba, the Crown provide no feedback about why they don't pursue charges. No comment. And in recent years have dropped cases and even seemed to undermine their cases. Other provinces do things differently and are more forthcoming and transparent about briefing the public. Transparency about the justice system is essential in terms of crime and safety. It is hard not to think we have not been let down by this office far too many times.

-In terms of crime and safety, mental health and addiction services or that lack of can beget both safety and crime issues. If someone asks for help and can't get it in a timely way or not at all, it is not surprising to see poor outcomes. Much more is needed in the area of health. The provinces have asked for more federal financing in health but they have cut service and taxes when given more funding. A lack of trust prevents serious work being done. The provinces want no strings money. It is pretty brazen especially since they will still blame federal government for failure even as they re-allocate the money elsewhere including checks to citizens. This needs to stop and measurable improvements health recorded or funding should be clawed back.

- Reconciliation. The province under Pallister had a combative relationship with indigenous people and went to court in various fights and lost on several fronts. There has been an improvement in tone from Stefanson but still a long way to go on substance. Manitoba has the worst record on apprehending children and First Nations and Metis have paid the steepest price. The broken families continues a cycle of safety and crime as kids age of out of care and have no supports as they are jettisoned onto the streets. This has to stop or the suffering continues. Putting kids in hotels as past governments have done or in poorly funded, culturally removed and improperly vetted foster care all contribute to a lack of safety for kids and families. Does the government truly want children to bounce around foster care till they end up homeless, mentally defeated, addicted and victims of or perpetrators of crime? Do better.

- The Forks is not just a city park or a national park. It is even fully a park. It is a multi-purpose space for the entire community. The province is one of three partners there. Yet another attack has taken place there. And no, it isn't because media is focused on it. It is because it is happening with such regularity that it is impossible to ignore.  What is the province to do? The latest firearm charges were released on an undertaking of a promise to appear. The province needs to clamp down on failure to appear and the various writs, warrants and subpoenas need enforcement to stop the revolving door. Want to prevent some murders? Stop letting people out and then letting the crime spree continue. And for those who get out, monitor and provide support. As for The Forks, the duty of the province to take care of it can't be brushed off. They own it and should act like it.

Manitoba Election 2016

By any definition the NDP run in Manitoba has been unprecedented. Majority after majority with two different provincial leaders from 1999 on. Think about it. Some kids graduating this year have only known an NDP government in their lives.

The leadership of Gary Doer, a prolonged economic expansion, restored federal transfers and a pragmatic style of government kept unemployment low and deficit-free. It wasn't perfect but there was little for the Progressive Conservative to chip away at.  Long memories of the tough 1990s and the vote rigging scandal and uninspired campaigns chewed through PC leaders.

Gary Doer rode a popular wave with good instincts and a likeability factor that was not and has not been easily replicated. His decision to leave and become Ambassador to the United States was perfectly timed. He left of his own accord which is not the case for a many a politician.

The selection by the NDP of Greg Selinger as leader did achieve another majority for the NDP but at a cost. The promises made of not raising taxes and the adamant dismissal that they would ever do so has affected credibility and popularity.  The shocking rebellion of five senior cabinet ministers and the subsequent leadership race and purging of MLAs and staff afterward can only make an outside observer watch gape mouthed.

The last few years have been tumultuous for the NDP under Greg Selinger. The world-wide economic woes, spring flooding and loose spending habits have pushed surpluses into deficits with no end in sight. As with many governments, the provincial NDP have used spending to keep things moving along. The problem is that they don't seem to be able to stop the flow and continue to blame past governments for their demise. Meanwhile, they have used government ad spending to promote themselves and use slogans that make it difficult to distinguish between government and political party. It is hard not to compare the tactics Greg Selinger with that of Stephen Harper.

The Progressive Conservatives under Brian Pallister have had their share of knocks. In a leader-centric political landscape, the man charged with guiding the party out of the wilderness has been prone to awkward and even confounding statements. Part of this might have be a sense of humour but because many people don't have a sense of the man. As we have learned a little more over the present campaign is that Pallister has been bullied a young man. Tall, bad teeth, living on the edge of his community and too proud to tell even his parents that he didn't always have enough money, he has been and probably always will be a guy that is hard for people to know.

The Tory leader has a provincial as well as federal past that NDP have been gleeful to emphasize in terms negative campaigning. The problem for the NDP is that 17 years is a very long time to blame someone else for the woes your government had to deal with. One major misstep for the NDP was to blame Pallister and others for the death of children back in the 1990s at Children's Hospital. The parents of said children lashed out at using them for them political gain. Moreover, there was no link to the Conservatives for any of what happened at the hospital.

Where Pallister is weak is in disclosure. It is not his wealth that's the problem but that simple questions of where do you live and where were you during a provincial crisis have been met with evasion. In the end though, it is up to the people of Fort Whyte if their candidate lives in River Heights. And likewise, it is up to the overall electorate whether they think their representative should be around in a crisis. The evasion thus far shown has not dented PC support yet but like the former mayor of Winnipeg, it can catch up with you. For the mayor, the evasion in regards to Remembrance Day about where he was really did not play well to the public.

As for the rest of the Costa Rica story and Pallister, there is no evidence of a violation of laws. Still, it will be hard not to be more forthcoming in regards to all politicians in what they do and where they go in the future. The Panama Papers and massive tax fraud already occurring in Canada have made citizens believe there are rules for some and not for others.

This is what politics has become in the last years. It is neverending campaigning and spin, lots of negative advertising, creating a narrative about your opponent, using third party groups to attack and generally being disagreeable. It is cruel and mean spirited. People are lathered up because all they see is that bad and a heavy handed sale job on the rest.

The tit for tat of going over candidates by researching them right down to their birth records is just standard procedure. It is doesn't allow for any evolution though. For example, someone who might have had strong feelings about gay marriage might have a different view now. However, their old statements might be used to hammer them rather considering the journey they took to acceptance. Beware the person who keeps their views close to the vest but secretly seethes with intolerance.

In the months leading to April 19's vote, a lot of people seemed to park their choice with the provincial Liberal party. What seemed favourable conditions has quickly turned bad. Initial soft support due to the situation provincially and some carry over from Trudeau's victory has been offset with rookie leader Rana Bokhari's campaign thus far. Shortly after winning the leadership, the Liberals started fighting as they seem prone to do almost every time. Any hope of putting that behind has been undermined by a spotty campaign since. One can simply not save they don't know if they filed taxes and not have people raise eyebrows.

I continue to be a member of the Liberal party and have donated to both in the past year. Unlike other campaigns, I have not volunteered. This is not from any deep seated ambivalence but the amount of time and energy required to assist. Having said that, I'm not a disinterested party but I have no special insight into how things are organized, what policies were decided or how candidates chosen.

Suffice to say that Justin Trudeau's federal campaign has been textbook of how to do things right, the Rana Bokhari provincial campaign has been the opposite. A few intriguing policy ideas were ruined by some very bad ones. Poll numbers that had been good and now all over the place. A breakthrough might have been three maybe four seats. Now, it will to be retain a presence in the Legislature.

The Green leader has been confident and impressive. James Beddome has consolidated the control over the leadership and the campaign has been a good one. The biggest problem for the party is no organization on the ground to promote candidates, policies and brand. Association with the environment has been good but still leaves people wonder if they are solid in other areas.

All in all it has been an ugly election. There has been very little positive and a whole lot of negative. I voted in the advance poll. My area has been represented by the Progressive Conservative since 1981 and before re-distribution from 1969 and if you go back further, it might be all the way back to the 1950s. In short, it never changes. For the last several elections, the provincial Liberals have been third place behind the NDP who parachute someone in to run most of the time. I've not seen one Liberal sign. I've seen a rare NDP sign and I thought I saw a Green sign but that's it.

I voted Liberal. I don't think of it as wasted. My vote comes from where I stand on the political spectrum. Am I happy? Not really. This election has been painful to follow and disheartening. But I do want to support choice and having just a two party system would leave me not wanting to vote at all.

No one can really be proud about this election. No one.

Future Pot Shops of Manitoba

1957 Liquor Commission Winnipeg. Fill in a form, we get your liquor, does your mom know you drink, son?

The Liquor Marts of today are far removed from the Liquor Commissions or LCs of Manitoba's past. A selection was behind a counter, a customer wrote their order and put lots of personal information there for tracking and a government worker went into the back and fetched it for you. Cash only, please. Put in a plain paper bag and don't dare have it anywhere but your trunk, sir.

The good old days.

We just had changes to archaic liquor laws in Manitoba but neither the NDP or Progressive Conservatives like to go to far for labour or religious reasons. Manitoba might eventually be the only place in North America with government stores.

Now, don't get me wrong... the Liquor Marts of today are far better than the sullen shops of the past. The liquor laws as well. However, as we have been told, Manitoba liquor is the most expensive in the nation. Our government has boasted how proud they are of it.

The government is so proud of their achievement that they have merged liquor and lotteries. Both businesses need to be government owned according to the government. Best they be together.

Now, Premier Greg Selinger has indicated that marijuana should also be sold by the government in Manitoba. Talk about the triple crown here.

Now, I am not a consumer of pot but I think it is very rich that the government is stepping in here to make sure they can max out on the profits by banning everyone else from selling it. Talk about overstepping.

The early pot shops in Colorado were heavy on security and light on aesthetics. That is changing. The latest store to open in the Denver area saw design reporters attending to comment on the award-winning architects.

An election is coming up and one has to ask: If the federal government moves to laws similar to Colorado on crime and pot, do we really need the province to step in and crush everyone else? Go further with this argument and perhaps we can ask: Do we need to own government liquor stores and casinos? Is there a better way? Is regulation not enough?

Look at what Colorado opened up this week.

Ajoya...get your pot and a Apple computer

Regulate where a pot store goes. Regulate security. But do we need to know it if it legally can be sold?

Winnipeg could see some brilliantly designed stores. The money will pour in. Keep the province safe, healthy and prosperous but stop being mother.

Fill to this line or go to jail

Greg Selinger - Return of the King

I can't be the only one confused about the NDP leadership convention. In my mind an actual leadership race should take place only when the position is open or being held by an interim leader not running or campaigning for any party. It's simply really. Anything else is an unfair advantage.

It is shocking that any challengers agreed to the terms that Greg Selinger and his supporters placed on the leadership race. The wearing of two hats in the leadership race of premier and leadership candidate continued the confusion and cemented the advantage of the man who seemed to have all the cards in the game.

It gets worse though. The unique aspects of select delegates for unions meant that slots would be reserved for people the union chose to fill them. Once again the strongest advantage lay with the man who remained as active premier of the province.

In the end, two candidates emerged to run for the leadership despite everything being gamed against them. Steve Ashton possibly thought he could simply overwhelm the odds against him by selling even more memberships and having a few unions support him.  It would simply not be enough against even larger Winnipeg unions. Theresa Oswald entered the race thinking that there was possibly enough opposition that would congregate around her to win the leadership if it came down to two people.

The raw anger at the dissidents was a defining characteristic of Selinger's support. The feeling was that the outspoken MLAs were damaging the brand and that their tactics were odious and against democratic principles. The truth obviously was and is a little more fuzzy.

When Sunday was all said and done, Greg Selinger was affirmed as leader and Premier by the thinnest of margins. The purge began the very next day as staffers were let go. The outcomes for the six MLAs outside caucus remains undecided. But here is one fact: If all the MLAs resign immediately, we could be having an election right now.

The NDP would probably like nothing better than to hide for the next year and have people forget these last weeks but that is just not in the cards. A budget is required and work is required across a spectrum of ministries. And somehow the party has to come together.

Nothing is impossible but the NDP party did not come of the leadership race unified and motivated to fight an election.

It is often said governments defeat themselves. If this is not an example of that, I don't know what is.

Predictions for 2014 in Winnipeg Part 2

In politics, we have one main election happening this year barring any snap elections of the provincial and federal levels.

The civic elections happens in October of 2014. A number of people have indicated interest. Many of those people will pull out when the realities of resigning from their positions on council to run for mayor look decidedly poor.

Having said that, I predict:

* Dogfights for two open city council seats in St. James and St. Boniface with a possibility of at least two more in places like Tuxedo and River Heights.

* Mayor Katz will announce at the very last minute that he won't be running in the upcoming election and will cite family and business as the reason plus achieving all his goals. 2014 will be a repeat of the previous years of questions regarding financial management.

* The stepping down of the mayor will cause the next mayoral vote to be one of the largest slate of candidates in Winnipeg history. The next mayor of Winnipeg will be Jeff Browaty who will land the endorsement of other councillors who chose not to run. Browaty will count on Conservative voters but will reach out to Liberals to undercut and divide center and left of center voters.

* On the provincial side of things, the provincial NDP will mount an advertising campaign using government moment for every department in an attempt to turnaround poor polling numbers. Toward the end of the year, Greg Selinger will announce that after 25 years of politics, he is stepping down and that a leadership campaign will replace him ahead of a provincial election in 2015. Sometime after the provincial election, Selinger will return to the University of Manitoba as professor.

* Christine Melnick will announce she is not running for the provincial NDP in the next election. She will be joined by a few more from her party as well. 

* In 2014, Vic Toews will become President of the University of Winnipeg.

* On the federal level, James Bezan will announce he is not running for the federal Conservative after 10 years in office for Selkirk-Interlake. He will be joined by Joy Smith who will also have served 10 years as MP for the Tories for Kildonan-St.Paul. Steven Fletcher will be challenged for the nomination in Charleswood-St.James-Assiniboia.

The New Liberal Leader

Rana Bokhari, New Manitoba Liberal Leader

I have worked Saturdays since childhood. I was newspaper carrier when there were still evening papers. I delivered the Winnipeg Tribune, Winnipeg Free Press and Winnipeg Sun.

For much of my life, I have worked more evenings and weekends that I care to remember.

I still do.

I try to take some Saturdays off occasionally but generally it is an extremely busy work day for me.  This Saturday was another busy one.

I take a rare Saturday off and would have this week for the Liberal leadership vote. However, there were a mail-in ballot and advance poll.

I love advance polls in that on election day, I like to be able to avoid any crowds and get my vote in. I do take time do go over my candidate lists and policy platforms. However, by a week before the election or so, I am more or less confirmed in what my decision will be. So far I have been lucky and there has not been a reason for me to regret voting before the actual election date.

The Liberal advance poll was a preferential vote numbering 1 through 3. There were were three worthwhile candidates in Rana Bokhari, Dougald Lamont and Bob Axworthy.

I made my selection based on a variety of criteria for and chose Rana Bokhari as my first choice. I didn't make my decision widely known but did tell a few people. I did not want to influence anyone and I should be clear that I would have supported any of the three had they become leader.  I told only a few people what my decision was. In my view, all of them would be preferable to the two main parties for their leadership.

It will be a tough time for the new leader. No seat in the legislature and probably the loss of two staff members. Those staff are assigned to elected leaders and had worked for Jon Gerrard. Since he is no longer leader, the positions are likely to be terminated unless the other parties agree to a change. The NDP might want to cripple the Liberals and say no. It might be in the Conservatives interest to say yes.

Why? Because every time the Liberal vote goes up, it gives the PCs a chance at becoming government.

I was not present when the leader was elected on the first ballot. However, I was happy to see Rana Bokhari become youngest Liberal leader in provincial history.

Some Liberals expressed dismay from other camps and made disparaging remarks about demographics dictating the vote. I can't say what the break down was but I am white and older than the candidate chosen. I saw a mix of people at the advance polls and on TV supporting the chosen candidate.

The Free Press mentioned that not enough eligible voters actually voted and too many voted in the advance polls. I suppose a delegate election could have ensured more people in the room and dispensed with the advance polls. I don't know. I have been part of both processes. It will always come down to how many memberships sold and voter turn out.

I think my reasons for not going to the actual leadership convention are fairly solid. I still think things have been fairly exciting and interest seemed to grow. But people are going to take their time assessing.

I know that I will be putting more time in but in what capacity, I don't know.

I think one thing I am certain of and that is our two party polarized system has made a lot of people wonder out loud if we could do better.

The B.C. Election and What it Means for Manitoba

B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix in Defeat

Despite Losing Her Own Seat, B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark Wins

What can you can about Tuesday's Liberal majority win in the B.C. election?

Some are calling it the upset of the century in Canadian politics. Perhaps. We have seen a few reversals in fortunes over the years. To be fair to B.C. though, this was a rather stunning turn of events.

By all accounts, the NDP expected to win the provincial election. They expected to win big. Some figured it was a moral imperative that they do win against a Liberal party that was wrong, wheezing, unloved and in need of a time out.

The Liberals had so many knocks against it the last years that people started to lose count. The Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) struck down, party staffers linked to controversial political notes, the economy and a whole host of others things seemed to tag the Liberals time and time again on the chin.

The political opinion polls had given wide support to the NDP. Adrian Dix, the leader looked to be the man to takeover the premier's office and hand Liberal leader Christy Clark a devastating defeat.

So what went wrong?

Well, I don't live in B.C. and won't presume to know everything about the politics there. However, let's look at a few things.

First: It is generally a difficult task to unseat a sitting government

The government has all the advantages before the writ is dropped. It can run ads on TV for government service that promote its work. It can deliver money to various areas and be there for all the glad handing. It has a large staff, better resources, better access to funds, better access to new candidates than other parties.

In short, being in government is like a runner who is allowed a few strides out of the blocks even more the starter's gun is fired.

Second: Negative ads work

The NDP leader Adrian Dix said he was going to run a positive campaign. It failed. The Liberals hit hard and they hit mean and the NDP took a drubbing. It is a fine line to decide just how far to take things in an ad campaign. While Canadians say they don't like the ads, it is surprising how they will quote back from them when asked for an impression.

It is often thought that Jack Layton ran a positive campaign.

Remember this ad?

It was a effective and despite Ignatieff indicating that he needed to meet Canadians directly after becoming leader, it played on a carefully constructed narrative that Layton was hard at work in Ottawa.

One can imagine the attendance record of the NDP during their campaign as Tom Mulcair took over. Or of the Liberals today with Justin Trudeau taking over.

In any case, negative ads work. It is something Justin Trudeau must accept or looks like Adrian Dix in the next election.

Third: Political opinion polls can be wrong

Or at the very least cause people to change their vote, lose their interest and maybe not show up. Voter turn out was awful. Did some people assume a NDP victory and figure their vote was not needed.? Did Liberal voters get scared and run to the ballot boxes to stop an NDP victory?

Or is there something more fundamental? Are the poll callers not getting through to enough electorate? Are they routinely missing people? Is the measurement of opinion failing terribly?

Fourth: Voter turn out is imperative

Even if polls are super accurate, they can be undermined by a lazy and unmotivated voter.  Liberals got their vote out, the NDP did not.

Fifth: Don't count your chickens

A good political campaign depends on many things. Sometimes it is because your opponent slips. In B.C., the provincial Conservative struggled and had a few candidates dropped.  This kept people from considering voting for them rather than Liberals or NDP. A vote Conservative was more likely to help the NDP.

The NDP didn't know how to fight the negative campaign and looked weak when having to defend themselves.

Luck, skill and timing are important. A campaign can turn on a dime with an economic report, scandal, a debate or a perceived gamechanger.

It should be mentioned that elections rarely turn on one key policy. It is more about the the perception of what your overall focus will be rather than specific ideas.

Analysts might scratch their heads for some time with this one. We may never know what main turning point changed everything. Suffice to say, it may have been all of the above or none of the above.

***

So what does this mean for Manitoba?

We had our election in 2011 and although the Tories led initial polls heading into the vote, their support was spread out inefficiently. The NDP staked a claim on seat rich Winnipeg and continued to target voters with money and policies that would make Stephen Harper proud as it comes from his playbook.

Any potential Liberal threat was mitigated and despite what some once again called good policies, the thinking was that Jon Gerrard was not the man to challenge the two main parties.

For better or for worse, it is usually about the leader in provincial elections. In provincial politics in general, it is hard for people to identify their own local elected officials.

In the past Manitoba election, the decision was generally about who should leader. Hugh McFadyen just didn't connect with people. And although Greg Selinger wasn't lighting up the skies, he was the premier and it was enough to carry the day.

It obviously came down to more than that. The Progressive Conservatives caused some suspicion and lost credibility with their promise to have a longer deficit than the NDP.

The negative NDP campaign about Manitoba Hydro was something the PCs just couldn't defend against. The problem was they had no election platform to challenge the NDP where they lived and breathed on health and education.

In short, not enough contrast so that the PCs could hit hard on an issue or two favoured by Manitobans.

***

Lesson learned for the next Manitoba election? All the parties have to create a narrative for their campaign, the leader has to be sharp and a rapid defence initiated to every challenge. Don't be afraid to go negative but watch for over the top. Don't let the polls discourage and motivate your voters right to the last minute.

The final tally is all that matters in the end

The Long Hot Summer of Crime

Winnipeg Police Ford Interceptor

Kudos to the Winnipeg Police Service for massive arrests to the Hell's Angels last year and the Mad Cowz now. In 2012, 11 members of the Hell's Angel's got taken down in arrests centered around trafficking drugs. One leader was sentenced to 10 years prison and his house on Autumnwood and two motorcycles were confiscated along with $500,000 in cash.

Police estimate the Hell's Angels operation brought in $100,000 a month.

A side note: Where does all the confiscated money go?

Today, another 11 gang members were arrested. This time from the Mad Cowz. Once again the arrests center around trafficking, specifically cocaine.

If the belief in Winnipeg is that the arrest of so many in organized crime will make the city safer, it is probably not going to happen.

Why?

Demand.

There will be demand to fill the insatiable need for drugs in Winnipeg and the province.

If you wonder why there is so much organized crime in Winnipeg, it is because there is so much demand for drugs. Looks to your friends, your neighbours and yourself. If you are using in some form or fashion, it is likely you contribute to organized crime. The harder the drug, the more likely that organized crime was responsible for bringing it to you.

I know some recreational users of drugs probably don't want to responsibility for their behaviour citing that they have never been arrested or are not scum like those who distribute but it hard to reconcile with outcomes.

The fact of the matter is that Winnipegger's demand is responsible for the fight amongst distributors of drugs.

Now people can argue that the government should take a role in these drugs as they did with alcohol and still do today. I don't disagree and some police say the same thing. I personally don't have a use for drugs but then I am not suffering from cancer where the doctor might be recommending it either.

The point is that our morality on things like alcohol and gambling have run into a brick wall with things like demand. The government gave in on the first two. No one in their right mind has called outright for Prohibition despite the huffing and puffing.

And while government may be addicted to alcohol, gambling and cigarette taxes, it is probably better than the carnage of illegal activity. At some point, we ought to...need to think about this in regards to drugs.

But we don't live under government sanction and control of drugs now. Our provincial and federal governments are pressing ever harder on drugs and large segments of the population are pushing back with demand and those that supply illegally are jumping in.

It is something to think about when the various names of arrested suspects appears on TV. How many are them are there to supply the supposed victimless crime of using drugs?

In the end, what we can expect is a long, hot summer of violence connected to the vacuum left by another police sweep of suppliers. While I certainly don't advocate the police not doing their jobs, it does seem like an endless circle.

People who demand drugs should know their part in this cycle.

The Fort Whyte By-Election

Brian Pallister Elected to the Legislature

It was a solid win for the new leader of the Progressive Conservatives. By all accounts, the election team of Brian Pallister ran and efficient and enthusiastic campaign in one of the safest city ridings for the PCs in town. It was a lower voter turn-out as one might expect of a summer election but it set the stage for a fall where the governing NDP will face a united opposition party with both a leader the house, a re-shuffled shadow cabinet and a new determination to press on the issues.

The percentage of the vote that Pallister won by was lower than the heady numbers of the previous election. It would have been hard to match the numbers of the former incumbent MLA and leader. Pallister was not well known in the riding and he lived outside of it. As a result, the PC leader was down 7% in the vote but still won a a decisive 55% of the vote.

The NDP ran an outsider in the riding as well. Aside from a cynical promise for 85 daycare spaces in Linden Woods on the eve of the election, the NDP ran a campaign where they tried not to draw too much attention. The result of this strategy was a 18% decline of their vote and third place finish. It was the worst finish for the NDP in the riding since its inception. Their vote total was 11%.

The Liberals running Bob Axworthy as candidate had the best showing in the riding ever. Their vote was up 23% and their overall vote tally was 31%. Axworthy was the only local candidate and drew star power via the family name and with help from senior Liberals. While the overall results were impressive, even a combined opposition vote would not have been enough to win the day. Still, an impressive showing as acknowledged by both Pallister and Greg Selinger.

What does this mean for Greg Selinger and the NDP? Short term: nothing. The election is a long way off. The governing party has a solid majority, money in the bank and a ready campaign team for ridings they need to win again.

Are their long term warning signs? Yes. The Liberals will have a new leader in the coming year. The collapse of the Liberal vote generally works in favour of the NDP. In many suburban ridings, a stronger Liberal vote could spell trouble for NDP candidates.

Major issues related to Manitoba Hydro and provincial finances loom. The NDP ran into trouble in the 1980s a result of having a backlash due to rising rates on a variety of items from Autopac to taxes.

It is a long way away from an election but fixed election dates might not be a good thing for timing. There are some indications that the government might change when the election happens. This is in part to the fact that federal, provincial and city elections could all be around the same times. I expect that we might see an earlier result but it depends on what is happening with the economy.

In the lead up though, I expect the NDP to hammer the PCs on them selling Hydro. They will also try to create a perception of Pallister as heartless and a right wing cutter.

The PCs under Pallister will focus on financial management of the economy.

Greg Selinger is probably hoping that overall economic growth will overshadow the problems Hydro now faces.

Fort Whyte Byelection

The biggest issue in regards to the byelection for provincial seat Fort Whyte is likely that people are unaware that it is being contested. Certainly there are signs up and door knocking going on but many  are kind of out of the loop. Hard not to think this is exactly what the NDP wants. Either they wanted a steal due to lower voter awareness and turnout or they wanted a Progressive Conservative victory to go by without so much as a ripple indicating any momentum.

By all accounts, the PCs have run an extremely organized campaign to get their leader Brian Pallister a seat in the Legislature. The NDP has run a quiet campaign.

The most spirited campaign has come from the Liberals running Bob Axworthy. There has been quite a few fundraisers, high profile Liberal assistance and a serious campaign since the election was announced.

In the end though, the margin for this seat will probably be too high to overcome. Even a combined vote of non-PC supporters would not have wrested the seat away from the Tories.

It is only the rare candidate and the rare campaign that can do the truly exceptional. Think Kevin Lamoureux's ability to steal NDP seats provincially and federally.

On September 4, I expect voters will show up in smaller numbers than a full provincial election. Will something unexpected happen? It is an extreme longshot. The leader of a party running in the area does have particular strengths with the voting public.

In terms of the issues? Locally, it is one things that is probably in everyone's mind: Traffic. Kenaston Route 90 is getting busier and busier. Despite the tens of millions spent, the area continues to be a source of problems. I am sure every candidate has heard it at the door. Come this fall, the irritation could reach fever pitch as IKEA is complete.

To those in Fort Whyte who are still deciding how to vote, think about what is important to you and ask the candidates hard questions. There is no doubt that some difficult times lay ahead in the direction of the province. It is best we think about who actually proposes solutions to the problems.

Lower the Voting Age to 16

The Free Press laments about the low voter turnout. It is a worthwhile discussion and the talk has leaned towards a mandatory vote. Perhaps in the next election, the Free Press will get all reporters on board and engaged rather than writing a column about a treehouse in the middle of the last provincial outing.

There are around 30 countries that have one and it certainly increases the voter turn out. One suspects if Australians weren't forced to the polls, they would turn out in way below 50 per cent numbers. Canada should not be so smug. We are getting closer and closer to that.

I have no idea it is a strategy of the major parties to ensure that voter suppression happens. It would appear that it is in the interest of some parties that certain people don't get out and vote. There has been evidence of this in provincial and federal elections.

It will be interesting if one political party makes mandatory voting an election promise and see what the response of the other parties is. If they disagree, perhaps they can indicate what measures they are making to not fall below have the population voting.

If making mandatory voting seems too big a step, there is an alternative to ensure that more people vote.

Lower the voting age to 16.

It has happened all over the world. Austria, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador, Hungary, Slovenia, and Norway already allow 16-year-olds to vote in certain circumstances. Some cities have also changed their laws to allow voting.

If the argument is that 16 year olds are too immature and it would be dangerous, perhaps we should raise driving age to 18 years as obviously the same argument applies. Right?

The age of 16 is good for operating a vehicle. Said vehicle could kill the user and others and yet we allow the young the opportunity to manage such a responsibility.

Can someone please argue why a vote should be disallowed when driving is allowed?

Does making an argument of not allowing 16 year olds the vote smack of the same reasons why women were denied the vote?

It is time for one political party in Manitoba to change the laws provincial and municipally to lower the vote to age 16. It is time to see just how democratic and far we are. It is time to make this a teachable moment in schools and for families. It is time to stop complaining about voter turnout among the young and actually do something about it.

Fort Whyte Byelection Part 2

Bob Axworthy to Run For Liberals

The Liberals have decided not to roll over in Fort Whyte byelection. They are running a resident from the riding and a well known family name in Manitoba politics: Bob Axworthy. The NDP and Tories are running people from outside the riding.

Axworthy is a well known coach in the city and community club participant.

Could this be a gamechanger? Hard to say. The Tories have a huge majority of votes from just over a year ago.

One thing for certain is that byelections are very local.

Fort Whyte Byelection

The provincial byelection for Fort Whyte has been set for September 4. It comes on the heels of NDP hinting they had no idea when a good election time would be for the area. It seems they decided that a possible victory for the Progressive Conservatives might be better before the fall legislative session lest it give the new leader Brian Pallister additional publicity that he lacked from no leadership contest.

In the background, the NDP quickly announced funding for a 65 daycare spaces in the Whyte Ridge riding, chose a loyal NDP footworker from Fort Rouge in Brandy Schmidt, expunged her Twitter account and any other online presence and have set her out with a fullly supported team. Quite possibly they are looking for a steal here in the dead of summer.

Fort Whyte has hosted a long line of Tory leaders. It is hard to imagine the politics in the area has changed all too much although the NDP have successfully won suburban seats elsewhere.

Could cynical politics win the riding? What else might we expect? A community club, a school or does Greg Selinger think desperate parents in Whyte Ridge in need of daycare will reward them with another backbench NDP member?

The Liberals have not offered up a candidate yet. The last time was a young candidate. It is hard to have someone step forward when the riding has voted almost 60% Progressive Conservative.

The Conservatives could make this much more than the just a byelection. It certainly would help raise the profile of their new leader who many people will not know well.

It is hard not to think the NDP are laughing at how this has turned out and are planning their next majority win three years from now.

Manitoba Election 6 Predictions

In the last election the NDP won a majority government with 36 seats won to the Progressive Conservatives 19 seats. The Liberals came away with 2.

In the terms of change, it was a 1 seat addition for the NDP and a triumph for the NDP. Little did anyone know that Gary Doer would not serve his entire term. Did anyone ask?

There was only one seat gained by the NDP but it affirmed the popularity support that Gary Doer had as leader of the NDP.

The difference for the PCs to unseat the NDP seems too great at this point to make a difference in ending NDP rule.

First, the Liberal predictions.

Jon Gerrard should should hold River Heights. It has been a tough fight but people appreciate his presence in the riding and in the legislature.

Kevin Lamouruex is gone to represent federally. But his people are working hard to gain Roldan Sevillano a seat.

Tyndall Park and River Heights will be gains.

Spirited campaigns by other Liberals will have difficultly breaking through.

Liberals Hold: 2 Seats.

The Progressive Conservatives will hold all their present seats or the proximity to the old boundaries. Hugh McFadyen and the PCs will make some gains.

The NDP made a wash with in St. Norbert. They screwed up the nomination and with no incumbent there, they are vulnerable. Gain for Karen Velthuys. Shocker will be if name recognition puts Marcel Laurendeau of the the Liberals there instead.

I think the NDP are vulnerable in a few places in western Manitoba. Brandon East will go PC. I think with Rosann Wowchuck in place, Swan River will go PC. I think Interlake will go PC.

In a shocker, re-distribution may deliver La Verendrye and the new Dawson Trail to the PCs.

Progressive Conservative Gain: 6 seat

That puts them at 25 in the Legislature.

The NDP drop to 30 in the Legislature.

NDP Lose: 6 seats

House split 30 NDP, 25 PCs and 2 Liberals.

Manitoba Election 5 Liberal versus Liberals

John Harvard and Anita Neville decided to throw Jon Gerrard under the bus today and endorse NDP candidates in Kirkfield Park and Seine River.

Both have mused in the past about merging the NDP and the Liberals and seem to be hurrying along that process.

It has to be a bitter pill for Gerrard who has presented a good platform, has recruited some excellent candidates and received some credit in the press for trying to show some alternatives.

I have stated I don't believe in the two party option of simple left and right choices.

Jon Gerrard has one thing correct and that is the NDP performance in health is underwhelming and the worst place you can end up having happen to you is to end up in the emergency room. While the NDP clams they have reduced wait times, they don't include waiting to be discharged out of the ambulance.

The thinking behind Neville seems to be "anyone but the conservatives." Sadly, that attitude wasn't held by the NDP who gunned hard for her and the result was...a Conservative.

We need a third or more choices in our Legislature. Some Liberals seems to want to end their party by undermining support for the party. It would appear some Liberals are moving right and some left.

Doesn't leave room for us centrists.