Fairmont Hotel and Fort Garry Hotel Undergo Multimillion Dollar Upgrades

The Richardson Family repurchase the Fairmont Hotel in 2024 after selling it in 2010. Since then they have been upgrading mechanical, plumbing and heating and cooling systems. The 1970 built hotel was part of the overall Richardson work that included their headquarters, a hotel, parkade and another office building. In 1979 it also included the Richardson Concourse connected to the main Concourse and Winnipeg Square. 

The hotel was originally called the Winnipeg Inn and was the foremost luxury hotel in the city and has remained such for decades. Even now, it is the main hotel for Hollywood stars and NHL players because of the king-sized beds and two secure floors. It hasn't been without its critics. Some NHL players have been critical of Wi-Fi, the isolated location away from things and that isn't as posh as some of the hotels they stay at. The accelerated pace of the long delayed Sutton Place Hotel and the very low vacancy rate of hotels has hastened the Fairmont to upgrade now.

They are not the only downtown hotel to upgrade. The Delta has also upgraded so that it has captured some of the NHL, AHL and officials bookings. The Fort Garry Hotel has had $5 million dollars of work since 2020. Yuk Yuk's was one addition in the old Club Room. The Oval Room was completely upgraded. The Sunset Terrace outdoor patio was built as well as the Vida Cucina Italia formal dining room. The latest work is nearing completion for April and involves first floor rooms being turned into suites and luxury Regal rooms for about $1 million. These 15 rooms are possibly the poshest and largest in the downtown.

Mid-range hotels have also been upgraded and in some cases expanded in the downtown and beyond. The Best Western Plus was re-branded as Hampton Inn and had floors added. The Holiday Inn and Suites Downtown was also renovated. The Holiday Inn Airport West was re-branded to Birchwood Inn. The Hilton Garden Inn by Seasons is expanded a few floors and unknown amount of room. The Holiday Inn on Pembina Highway is getting a full renovation.

All 340 rooms at the Fairmont will be upgraded. Every restaurant and ballroom will get the same treatment. At $120 million, it could be one of the biggest investments in a hotel in Winnipeg ever. It is unclear what the price of the Sutton Place Hotel near the arena will be. The overall cost is listed for True North towers and the like was $400 million but there has not been a breakdown of what cost what.

Many downtown organizations and businesses are nervous about the Fairmont being closed for nearly a year. Some of the media comments make it clear that some small restaurants get a lot of customers referred by the hotel. The hotel also serves a lot of guests for concerts and entertainment in the area. I'm sure the Richardsons considered just doing floor by floor but it sounds like this will be far bigger in scope for piecemeal work like that. 

Between 2026 and 2027 so many big projects for hotels are planned that the city will look very different when they are complete. Another noteworthy project is a Hyatt Centric Hotel on Broadway. It is being built where the former CRA federal building was. It is surprising that it took this long for another hotel to join the Fort Garry Hotel on Broadway considering the government and business offices on the street.

As for the Fairmont, it will be ready for a real revival of Portage and Main when the Metis museum and apartments just down the street open in the next years.

Firefly TV Series to Return as Animated Series

Firefly was a TV series that was briefly on the FOX network in 2002 for a two hour pilot and 13 episodes before being cancelled. Low ratings got it cancelled before all 13 episodes were aired. This left three unaired episodes which had many begging for their release. Oddly enough, it would take the British Sci-Fi cable to air the entire series in syndication in 2003. In Canada, the whole series would eventually air in full on Space, the sci-fi channel, a few years later. For many people, the opportunity to rent of buy the series came a year after it was cancelled and the fandom grew accordingly. I tried watching on FOX but they kept changing the airdates and I just missed episodes. I eventually watched the whole series on Space and the movie that came out in 2005. Serenity was not a box office success the year it came out.

Creator of the show, Joss Whedon, was a FOX network fave with Buffy the Vampire Slayer and movie writing credits to his name. The reputation of FOX was to aim for younger audiences in the 1990s and and it was bolder than other networks in choosing material. However, it was also a time when NBC dominated and networks like CBS were coming up with things that would lead to their own dominant ratings. FOX was putting things in the window but unless it really built an audience like The Simpsons or X-Files, it was quickly pulled out of the window. A long list of show that were pulled left audiences in North America disappointed.

Pre-empting shows by networks for sports, holiday, presidential addresses and the like has a fundamental negative impact on those shows. In some cases, the networks can't help it but other times it is the programmers who cripple the show. Not to mention networks that want to put the series order out of whack as in the case of Firefly. Studio execs decided another episode should be first. The lack of consistency was too much to build an audience.

Nathan Fillion, who played Captain Mal, is presently lead and executive producer of The Rookie has been teasing some sort of revival of Firefly and has been showing clips of the cast agreeing that "it's time." The final piece was Alan Tudyk who played Wash in the series. Fillion and Tudyk are leading the charge but this is a full cast push. Creator of the series Joss Whedon has given his support but has not taken a role in whatever new project that might result from the gathering of the actors. This may be to give them a clean slate with the studios and networks who might not want to be accused of giving Whedon a free pass from work harassment that he was accused of going back to the 1980s.

The cast of Firefly actually seem to like each other and officially just announced, they have agreed to a second season of Firefly as an animated series. Showrunners have been announced and presumably script idea. What still hasn't been worked out is a network or streamer to carry the series. This won't be the only live action series to bring back the stars in an animated series. Star Trek did it with much of the old cast and Babylon 5 did it with as many as the living members left from the their series.

Sci-Fi fans and their conventions keeps shows alive in way that comedies and dramas of other series don't as often have. Star Trek owes any extension past its 1960s series to conventions and any product they could put out whether it was comics or animated series. The original actors and writers were able to work during the writers strike at the time. Animated writing was not in the Guild at the time.

Firefly already has had books and comics made  following the series. An animated series would support the building of a franchise. It is hard to see if it will lead to more live action series or movies but many studios are looking to bring back beloved programs. I don't think I'd ever live to see the day a show like Matlock back. None of this would be possible if the actors from the show were on board and promoting it so heavily. Let's hope a broadcaster picks it up!

The Re-Newed Expansion of 7-Eleven in Winnipeg

 

Southland Corporation in Dallas had been operating stores since 1927 but by 1946 had re-branded as 7-Eleven to reflect their general operating hours. It began to franchise in the 1960s to various countries such as Canada. The first store in Canada would be in Calgary with others that quickly followed. Unbeknownst to many, 7-Eleven has been Japanese owned since 1991.

The history of 7-Eleven in Winnipeg goes back to 1969. The first location in Charleswood was before the municipality even joined the city in 1972. The first 7-Eleven locations were built in Alberta and only a few months later Winnipeg's was built on Dale Avenue as part of the Westdale Shopping Mall. By 1979, there were over 40 stores across the city. Initially, they were operating from 7 am to 11 pm but a number of stores operated 24 hours a day except Christmas and a few other holidays over the years where they closed all day or were of reduced hours.

Robberies were awful at any store that operated 24 hours. This included Domo gas stations, Mac's and 7-Eleven. Some stores reduced hours because Winnipeg was near the worst in Canada for this. The police wanted the stores closed at night but conveniences stores pushed back. The company responded in 1976 with some of the security measures that everyone today is familiar with. The 6000 stores across North America now had limited amounts of cash at night. By 1980, the timed safes were in place. The first lottery tickets were sold in 1971 in stores, a first for Canada.

It may be hard for people to remember but Slurpees were behind the counter and poured by employees from 1969 to late 1980s. It was very limited in flavours in that Coke and Sprite were the only consistent drinks. Hoagies first appeared in the 1980s. And Slurpees in Canada were different than the U.S. in that they were more icy while in the U.S., they were more syrupy.

Sometimes it was 7-Eleven that led innovations and sometimes it was different regions and stores adapted to the areas. Microwaves introduced at stores in the very late 1970s and 1980s made it possible to have heat and eat items. Burgers, hotdogs and hoagies were popular in Canada. In Japan around the same time it was rice balls (o-nigiri) or simmered foods (o-den). In the U.S. it was hotdogs and burgers. I would think that chicken has really taken over at 7-Eleven over the last several years.

In 1991, the family that owned majority shares of 7-Eleven tried to take the company private and was overwhelmed with debt. Even selling some divisions was not enough to bail them out. In Canada, we probably didn't know they were even in trouble. The Japanese franchise was probably surprised how tenuous the parent company was in Dallas. Because of the strength of the Japanese yen, they were able to take majority ownership of the company and several years later made it a full subsidiary.

Most Canadians still don't know that the ownership change happened. Nor was there any sense of who directed how operations were to be run in Winnipeg or Canada, for that matter. There does seem to be a general manager in Winnipeg for the corporate stores although there is a distribution center on Bentall. This begs the question of who makes decisions for the stores on say, what newspapers should be carried or what local food needs to be on the shelves. One example, in 1979, after the Winnipeg Arena was expanded for the NHL's Winnipeg Jets, tickets were sold to games for a discount.  The Charleswood location became a prime spot to grab these tickets. In 2025/2026. 7-Eleven came on board as a Jets sponsor and a Slurpee machine now resides at the Canada Life Centre and store ads appear on the broadcasts. In the past, only the Dallas Stars got that ad support for a hockey team. Not surprising since that is where the company was founded and still operates the U.S. base.

In the most recent year, 7-Eleven Canada has tied to evolve a small restaurant style area that serve alcohol. In Winnipeg, it is only one location on Ness and that location isn't even open 24 hours. In Ontario, they have far more testing this out. And it is a test. It might not work. Sometimes 7/Eleven chases a trend as it did with renting videos back in the 1980s. It took some years but the convenience store retreated from sales when big players like Blockbuster, Jumbo and Rogers took over.

Convenience stores like 7-Eleven have always had coffee but even those use to be poured by store clerks at one time. Then small coffee stations were set up with coffees rotated by clerks. Now the machinery and choices for coffee are a lot more varied.  It is uncertain how many people get coffee at 7-Eleven in Winnipeg compared to competitors. To be sure Winnipeg is very much a Slurpee city unlike any other in the world. It isn't just corporate kiss-up when 7-Eleven says Winnipeg is the Slurpee capital of the world. It is a phenomenon unlike any other place on the planet. In some stores there are a dozen or more choices. In a Japanese 7-Eleven they are likely two machines and they aren't going to be Coke and Sprite.

Magazines are no longer in stores in Canada. They used to be positioned in their own row and newspapers were right beside the store. Some 7-Elevens in Winnipeg used to have Toronto Stars, USA Today and every national paper along side the local Free Press and Sun in abundance. Newspapers are now exiled to the corner.

Pay phones were once inside, then moved outside and now gone altogether. Banks vie for space for ATMs inside 7-Eleven. Lottery stations are now right beside the door. The formerly clerk supplied food is now self serve and deliveries have exploded in every 7-Eleven.

Canada's Circle K attempted to take over 7-Eleven worldwide last year and failed in part to the difficulty it is for international companies to take over Japanese ones. Some were saying Japan might be invoke national security reasons since convenience stores are so depended on in Japan. Oddly enough, 7-Eleven continues to acquire stores in the U.S. but that same courtesy does not extend the other way.

Regardless, it appears both companies are cutting marginal stores and ones subject to safety issues. Winnipeg has seen around 10 stores cut in recent years and management has said some of it is because of crime. In fact, they put a number on how much product was being removed from stores and it was in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. That is unsustainable and while corporate critics might not have had any sympathy, this level of theft was also taking down mom and stores and leaving the area barren of any grocery or convenience stores. 

According to Mayor Gillingham in his State of the City address, 7-Eleven has spoke to him about an expansion of the company in Winnipeg. After the closure of the aforementioned locations, it is curious what the company has in mind. We can take our clues from some information released back in February as well as world reports on 7-Eleven. In terms of the former, 7-Eleven has indicated they are open to franchising opportunities. This is interesting because they are very much a corporate store company. In Australia, the company took over the entire Australian franchise as part of corporate takeover. In Canada, they appear to to looking at side by side operations.

So what does that mean? It means that we could more of a saturation of stores in certain parts of the city. For example, Portage Avenue has two stores along the entire run from Portage and Main to Headingley. In Tokyo, that would be unheard of. The company would try and place stores along major transit hubs and shopping areas. Suffice to say that places like Charleswood and St. James with only four stores seem a little light in terms of presence. 

There is no getting around the shoplifting issue in Winnipeg and around North America, for that matter. 7-Eleven is at the forefront if security for convenience stores in the world so expect even more efforts to reduce theft and identify those who are responsible. It will be positioning any new stores to have the best chance of success but also security. Given how many university students are off Pembina Highway, it is a missed opportunity that 7-Eleven has no stores aside from the one. This seems a perfect opportunity for franchises. And let's not even talk about how underserved the east side of the Red River is. 

An opportunity for franchisors to do really do well with a company that is iconic in Winnipeg is good. In some cases, some areas are crying out for any kind of convenience store. There are literally none and certainly not 24 hours. There could be opportunities as well for stores inside malls, airport and sports facilities. 

This doesn't have to be all bad for existing convenience stores. There have been several that have opened up and they are finding niches that 7-Eleven can't fill such as being on the ground floor of apartments, offices and the like where they would rely on foot traffic more than car traffic. These stores also cater to niche areas such as ethnic foods to sell or to serve. 7-Eleven may be a lot of things but not a seller of ethnic foods or big on foot traffic. Even St. James has seen at least three convenience stores that fit the ethnic label open in the last 12 months.

From the government side things, the province has to keep pushing on secret property agreements that protect companies such as Safeway/Sobeys having any competitors set up near them. This sounds like it might apply to just big stores but any agreements of exclusivity need to be known and hoarding properties is anti-competitive and should be dealt with federally by the Competition Bureau and by the provinces to make sure these secret agreements see the light and are handled by the municipal board. As far as the city goes, they need to ensure security for 24 hour stores and that may entail more police visits, safety audits and sharing of information. A lot of trouble is sometimes organized or the same people.

Some might not find an expansion of 7-Eleven exciting but if the attempt is to make the stores as essential as they are in Japan, that mean offering food and service at prices that are compelling. For example, the egg salad sandwich in Japan sells for 200-300 yen. That is about $2.50 Canadian. The egg sandwich in Winnipeg is $5.00. We need to keep competition up in Winnipeg because those type of prices for 7-Eleven are typical for a number of products in Japan.

They key to vitality in many cities is the diversity of options for those who live in it. Think of the bodegas of New York or the bakery shops on Paris. Price competition competition comes from a multitude of suppliers. If we ever want to have $2.50 egg sandwiches, a Japanese-style surge of stores will help.

U.S. Makes It's Position on Trade Clear

Figuring out the the Trump position on anything is a difficult one. He can contradict himself in the same day. But fair to say that his tariffs on Canada for steel, aluminum, lumber and cars is not just a negotiating position but the actual position he is taking so long as he is president. Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Traded Representative has made it very clear. He has stated that Canada's manufacturing sector has to move to the U.S. and Canada will have at least 10% tariff on all goods and possibly 15% tariff and Canada can't have any corresponding tariff or face punishment. He says the U.S. wants the liquor ban abandoned (even though it is in response to U.S. sectoral tariffs), they want access to Canada's dairy

The conservative viewpoint in Canada is that Trudeau and now Carney were just playing games on a deal. It is apparent that Poilievre in 2026 has seen popularity drop even steeper for not even mentioning Trump by name for few of alienating his base who, in some cases, support Trump and even advocate for the U.S. to annex Canada or for parts to separate. The steady migration of his MPs to the Liberals and low poll numbers could indicate that made in his own party see Trump as a drag on their support and chanced of government.

July 1st is the day that CUSMA, the free trade agreement is to be negotiated in earnest although discussion are going on non-stop since Trump came back into office. NAFTA and now CUSMA have been around since 1994 and aside from a few areas such as culture and supply management, it is almost entirely tariff-free. As such, Canada, Mexico and the U.S. have configured supply chains so that we are all supplying elements to an overall economy. The end of free trade means those supply chains disappear.

It would appear the U.S. thinks that all manufacturing will be in the U.S. and we will buy the products. However, the U.S. car companies of Ford, GM and Stellantis have already indicated now high priced the cars will be and that they are likely to go under as a result. For Canada, we are likely just to stop buying those products and get cheaper ones elsewhere. Chinese electric cars are far cheaper.

Many Republicans know how damaging tariffs are but the fear they have of Trump is so high, they will say nothing. The strategy of waiting or dragging out negotiations has been mentioned a few times. The Supreme Court has struck down some tariffs and others have time limitations on them. All the while, the mid-term elections are coming and some Republicans fear they will lose the House and possibly the Senate. By then it is game over and the House will take responsibility for tariff control again and Trump will see more Republicans distance from him.

Or at least that is what the Carney and the Canadian government is probably hoping for. Signing a bad deal is worse than no deal. As most countries are finding, Trump changes the deals he has in place every week.  With this in mind, Carney has been going to country after country to begin the process of restoring old trading relations and beginning new ones. In this past week, a deal with India on energy has been made despite misgivings about Indian involvement in the death of Canadians.

There is probably no trade deals out there that don't have some sort of naysayer. Sanctions for countries like Belarus and Russia because of Ukraine invasion. Tariffs, boycotts and tensions with the U.S. with Trump. Issues with China and India because of foreign intervention. And the list goes on. Any attempt to change those dynamics comes with challenges. And conservative media keeps says Carney is holding up real work on a U.S. trade agreement.

It starts to feel like gaslighting as we often see from Conrad Black contributions from the National Post. Or puff pieces from Postmedia about Poilievre. It is no wonder why Ford Progressive Conservatives get so annoyed. Ford knows that the deal the U.S. wants is to close down all car manufacturing in Canada and have a 15% tariff on top of that. Some federal Tories seem convinced Carney is holding up the deal but the provincial ones know that only a quick bad deal is in the offing.

Time is on Carney and Canada's side. Tariffs are unpopular among Americans. War fares even worse and the United States is doing both. The mid-term election in November possibly means the House of Representatives and Senate go Democrat. And while Democrats are not always trade friendly, they are not likely to pursue blanket tariffs on Canada and the world. Trump seems pretty set on his path and for the foreseeable future, Canada is likely to try to stay off his radar while leaving negotiating to the backrooms.

St. Vital Centre Purchased for $160 Million

St. Vital Centre was built in 1979 for about $40 million just when a flurry of other malls were going up in including Kildonan Place, Winnipeg Square, Eaton Centre and Unicity. That was a lot of malls all at once and some of them did not survive or have been drastically changed over the years. Most of the malls were owned by real estate companies in the beginning but many including Primaris and Cadillac Fairview are now owned all or in part by the Maple 8, Canadians top government pension funds. For the last numbers of years St. Vital Centre has been owned by the Ontario Pension Board.

In recent years some private players have been making inroads as owners. It is unclear who their shareholders might be. In many cases their financing still comes from pension funds as in the case of Brookfield Asset Management. The fact that a pension fund sells a property doesn't mean they are not part of shareholding or or financing the deal to enhance their balance sheets. 

In the case of the sale of St. Vital Centre to Leyad, a Quebec-based real estate company, it appears the sale was financed by six credit unions in a syndicate. Since Leyad is a private company, it doesn't have to disclose its financial structure except to the banks and paying taxes. 

This is not the first foray into real estate in Winnipeg by Leyad. They have purchased Garden City Square, Johnston Terminal, CDI College and the Canada Goose Distribution Centre over the years for a pretty significant footprint in the city. Next to Montreal, it might be the biggest holdings right in the company. 

For many years St. Vital Centre has been firmly entrenched as the second largest mall in the city. Due to the location, it is hard for it to expand much beyond what it is now unless they build up. However, they still have to fill the empty Bay store location. This is an issue for Polo Park as well. Since the other large story closures led to knew tenants, it is expect that by year end announcements will be made on new uses for the space. And Leyad seems well suited to investing in their properties but that remains to be seen. The Johnston Terminal took a while to get going again after Covid but seems better now.

There is no record of what the purchase price of the mall when it was taken over by the Ontario Pension Board. However, with the original price being $40 million and the sale price being $160.5 million that is a very healthy price for a mall still producing income. The powerful Canadian pensions probably can't quit malls completely. They are too big and growing to not buy real estate. The U.S. could be less attractive if their economy tanks but who knows? That could be the perfect time to invest. Just ask the people who bought dirt cheap after the last crash in Florida and Arizona.

As mentioned, there have been some malls across Canada that have closed. In Winnipeg, that would be Portage Place, Unicity and a few strip malls. However, Canada never really overbuilt the way the U.S. has and done. In Grand Forks, North Dakota, you could call Columbia Mall a failed mall. It is embarrassing to see.

The purchase by Leyad is probably an attempt by St. Vital Centre to remain the second largest mall in the province ahead of Outlet Collection Mall and the rest of the Seasons development. This may be a losing battle because the Seasons development had been going strong for 13 years. There has never been a stop in building on the site although it is possible this year might see the last few spots filled up in the surrounding mall spaces.

St. Vital's hosting of the Children's Hospital Book Sale at least two to three time a year also fills the place with people from all over the city and beyond. For those who don't remember, it used to be Polo Park that hosted this. The destination malls usually have things over seasonal times to attract shoppers. The more unique, the better. For many decades it was mini-concerts and fashion shows.

It seems Leyad's purchase of St. Vital Centre will be followed up with a multimillion investment in the former Bay location soonest. There are few if any big retailers out there that could take the full space over. Some are still hankering for a Simons department store but it might be wishful thinking as the company takes a long time to expand their private company. Others believe there might be a new grocery coming courtesy of rule changes that block competitor from opening in the same mall. Many places have agreements that are paid for to keep other grocery and pharmacy out. This has been ruled as anti-competitive. Those that continue to practice may face penalties and fines.

It used to be that malls had long lists of retailers wanting to move in but the need to expand the hours and reasons to go to the mall have had to increase. It can't be all fashion stores that don't last a season. Expect to see more moved development in the near future.

 

Kildonan Place Food Court

It seems Kildonan Place has been under construction for a decade. And to some extent it has. The loss of Sears and The Bay along with other stores meant the mall seemed to be perpetually replacing stores like Dominion, Sears, Bay, Zellers and Target. The addition of Save-on-Foods and a new and expanded movie theatre has helped bring stability to that end of the mall.

The goal of a mall is to extend how long each day people are there as well as try to get repeat business. A grocery store usually brings people to the mall at least once a week as do any pharmacies in the mall. A movie theatre can attract a younger crowd and help the restaurants and food court on a weekly basis and longer into the evening and weekends.

Polo Park and St. Vital Centre have also gone through substantial changes but Kildonan Place has been hit by the changes in retailing harder than most. It seems to have solved the issue of retailers as well as anchor entertainment but the long stalled upgrade to food court just didn't happen until now.

A good food court or all can add all sorts of life to a mall. The St. Vital food court expansion cemented it's spot as the most attractive of the courts with soaring ceilings, faux stone surroundings and fireplaces. Most food courts try to have a variety of ethnic choices albeit in fast food options. Polo Park's second floor food court is not nearly as attractive but it is large and has variety. It is possible that we see Polo Park do something different but I tend to believe if they had wanted to move, they would have used the space on the first floor of the Sears building. Still, I would not rule out a third floor being added to the mall in the next five years and the food court moving up. This would likely only happen if there is a new focus on hotel, housing and entertainment in the mall.

However, back to Kildonan, their food court has been in need of an upgrade for ten or more years. The food court they have sufficed with is cozy but the mall is bigger and the amount of people living nearby greater. The move and expansion of Dollarama as well as Cineplex Junxion set up opportunity for an upgrade. This was an 8000 square foot space to create a new food court.

The old movie theatre will be demolished and a newly re-designed entrance will go. Guest Services will move and re-open in April. As far as the food court goes, it will go from 8 vendors to 10 vendors and 325 seats to 550 seats. Although some things are expanding, the actual leasable space will be reduced by 30,000 square feet.

None of the work comes cheap and it will take till 2027 for work to be totally complete. By that time perhaps the next huge change happens to Kildonan. The ups and downs have hit this mall more than most but according to the landlord, it is still a profitable mall.

Some local retailers will displaced in this which is sad because clearly the mall depended on them when large national and international stores shut down. There is some evidence that some of these stores are finding other leasing space for themselves. 

Oakwood Cafe on South Osborne to Permanently Close

The Oakwood has been an institution along south Osborne since the 1980s. From a brief time it was Samantha's but has been the Oakwood ever since. It hasn't always been perfect. In 40 years, sometimes the minimum wage increases have put the restaurant in a pinch and they have publicly said so. 

It is a very tough business but the restaurant has benefitted from a stellar location. It is across from the Safeway, leisure center and library in a neighbourhood that has had a real uptick in the last ten years. But alas, as restaurant owners get older, the desire to pass on the place grows and sometimes there is just no one to take over. 

I have no idea if there was an attempt to sell the restaurant. It may be the landlord already had someone in mind for the spot as well. This happens more often than people realize. Various landlords in Winnipeg are shuffling tenants. Retail shopping areas including St. Vital Shopping Centre are being bought and sold. In some cases tenants are finding they are not renewed.

Even for restaurateurs who own the land they are on sometimes find it better to close and the land re-purposed under new owners. Examples abound this last few years. Whatever the reason, a number of people are mourning the loss of the family restaurant they went for breakfasts and family get togethers. A number of people remembered their favourite dining options.

Family restaurants are often the glue in terms of gathering spots in a community. Not everyone wants a fast food choice or pizza chain. Sometimes you want a table for several and diverse meal choices. The closing of the Oakwood Cafe is the end of an era.

Manitoba Hydro Building Unsafe

I recently wrote that restaurants inside the recently converted Marcello's at Manitoba Hydro should feel more secure than some of their old locations in downtown Winnipeg. I said the issue for Manitoba Hydro might be security outdoors. I was wrong. A knife attack inside the building overwhelmed security who are not equipped to deal with violence. I had thought the mere presence of security and a lot of people, 2000 when full staff are present, would be sufficient for safety. I was wrong. 

Businesses and residents of various places in the city, downtown in this case, are suffering from violence and theft. It isn't useful to downplay it since even very progressive voices, those who live downtown and support businesses there are finding it exasperating that their cars and personal safety are constantly under pressure. The Ashdown Market cited crime as a big issue of why they are shutting down this week. 

The police are responding to arson and bus assaults and they have made some progress. However, some of this has come after a number of convenience stores and restaurants have been burned to the ground. Former hotels have been burned to the ground so that there is no possibility they could be turned into transitional housing. The empty spaces left could be there decades.

The fact that higher levels of security are needed inside buildings with camera and security people in them is scary. It isn't an obstacle for those who don't fear consequences at any time. Calling the police is already too late for those who attack first and have the knife out. The Hydro case is all too common where a subject has a knife and a response can't nearly be fast enough. Or the security that is present is ill equipped for an actual attacker.

People can't feel they will be randomly assaulted any time they are out in the city. Make no mistake people are well aware of where assaults take place and are talking about it.  Manitoba Hydro has no choice to respond or employees and customer will not want to come downtown. In fact, some are questioning the move from Taylor. Others have said they should move the HQ right out of Winnipeg, some joking it should be right out of the province. 

Given the efforts to make the arena area even more a recreation hotspot and supporting existing and incoming business developments, it is in very much a priority to improve safety and security. This isn't just superficial appearances. If businesses and people can't feel they won't be burned down, assaulted or suffer constant threats, you might as well demolish everything downtown. Would be that be the solution. It simply would move the problems even more so across the city.

It would appear that new security will be present this week who can restrain and detain those set out to do harm. And it can't seem like a revolving door. It is staggering that the person arrested for burning down places was re-arrested for more crimes a day later. It just makes people feel there is no hope because there are no consequences for hurting people. It was a huge deal arresting a suspect in the arsons case and just as huge a failure when he was released to do it again. 

Looking at the Manitoba Hydro building by itself though is a distraction. Even if the inside is made safe, it doesn't necessarily mean a worker doesn't get attacked outside the doors. And it isn't limited to the Hydro building. The new Pan Am Clinic is coming to Portage Place and if people are attacked with knives in and around the building, they will hold all level of governments accountable.

Canada is going through a pretty profound addictions, homelessness and violence spike. Truly, overall crime might be down in the country but people won't feel like safe and secure when they hear of random attacks in schools and workplaces. It isn't alarmist if nurses grey list their workplaces. It is a cry for help for real problems. A detachment of police at Health Sciences Centre is probably only the beginning of a full safety audit. Health professionals are going to court to get Shared Health to comply with security measures in the workplace.

It certainly feels like an escalation where we worry about security inside the workplaces and schools. As the awful shooting in B.C. demonstrates, our sense of security hangs by a thread. The trauma of assault and violence doesn't just go away. Communities across Canada are hurting from fear of repeating offences against them. We can't feel unsafe in our homes, our schools and work as well.

It is now up to both public and private sectors to restore not just actual security but a sense of security as well. That could mean continuous assessment of safety which might mean keycode passes to various areas of schools and workplaces. It might mean security that involves more security capable of intervening and not seemingly observing your assault. Cameras are mostly responsive after something has happened. Certainly we need a surge of resources. This is not a time of a committee doing a report that will be available a few years from now. Nurse are already making decisions about where to work now. They won't wait years to protect them from being assaulted. They will leave en masse.

This has to be high priority and will likely be a multi-pronged approach. It is clear though that people are not being overwrought and decisions about where people will live and work are being made about experiences they are having. There really is no more time to waste.

Peter Young Passes Away 2026

Peter Young was the sports guy who turned CKY into a powerhouse of local in 1974 when he came aboard as sports director from background in sports reporting in Thunder Bay. The job was part time and he attended school at University of Manitoba for a Master's program at the same time. The heavy competition between radio, TV and print to cover sports in Winnipeg became a big deal when the WHA Jets came on the scene in 1972. Very few games were televised back then so it relied on radio, TV and print to cover the games in reporting form.

There have been a few reports on his passing. Take note of Marty Gold's story in the Winnipeg Sun. He does a far better job than CTV news with their 47 second story about the death of the person who helped the station take number one and keep it all these decades. His interview two years ago with Peter Young shows there is still important stories to tell on people in the city that can't come from generative AI. The sooner the owners of AI pay creators of content rather than just scraping the Internet of material they don't own, the better.

Peter Young was responsible for a lot of the sports and entertainment hires in Winnipeg. Don Percy and Rod Black both came to the city either with job offers or referrals. In one funny story related on Marty Gold's story, he helped a Blue Bomber player get a job in another city when his time ran out here. I expect the memorial service will bring out all the stories and hope some get to be made.

Peter Young was not content to do just a re-cap of a few professional sports, he set out to cover local amateur sports in a major way. It really forced other media to increase coverage. Now, most newscasts in Winnipeg don't mention much about sports at all, even professional ones. But it wasn't always that way.

My recollection of Peter Young is the multiple sports he covered including three Olympics and the Wide World of Sports where he was prolific. School athletes were always given priority and reporting on coaching and teams with player highlights was not just a tiny spot on the one hour broadcast. It was a focus of that was superior to the public broadcaster for local sports.

Sports coverage is evolving for sure. However, one thing can be said about the new digital coverage. None of it focuses on local sports. It is generally all professional sports. Peter Young showed that it was possible to do it. He gave many reporters both men and women their first chance at broadcasting. He covered so many different sports that he was indispensable in telling the story to Winnipeg and throughout Canada. 

His kind of reporting will be missed.

Harper Nostalgia from Conservatives

The Conservatives have been have been all mushy nostalgic for Stephen Harper this past week during the Calgary convention to affirm Pierre Poilievre as party leader. It is the Conservative convention so they can mush all the want. However, the Conservatives certainly leave out a lot of stuff when they talk about Harper, not the least of which is how he got thumped by Justin Trudeau for a terrible campaign and based on his record. And thereafter, Trudeau beat the new two Conservative leaders. It was the Liberals themselves who replaced Trudeau and thereafter Carney beat yet another Conservative leader in Pierre Poilievre.

The last time the Conservatives held power was back when Harper was Prime Minister. The National Post are been particularly strong in singing the praises of Harper the past weekend crediting him with a golden era in Canadian governance. They are very strong in condemnation of Trudeau. There is plenty to criticize Trudeau about but on things like military spending, Trudeau's government easily surpassed Harper who had .08% GDP spending even while we were in Afghanistan. Trudeau was at 1.3% and Carney is to bring it to 2% by March and head past that to 5%. Somehow the way the conservative media frames it, Harper was superior. He wasn't but they seek to downplay that. 

In terms of deficits, Harper media supporters say it was the result of the 2008 stock and economy crash. They credit Harper for managing the crisis while saying that Carney had nothing to do with it. I expect if Carney didn't help, Harper would not have offered him the job of Finance minister or be so effusive in praise of his job as Bank of Canada governor. It is all such nonsense. Such obvious digs sound just like they are: blindly partisan.

The seeds of most leaders demise show themselves early. The electorate initially appreciates or tolerates it in the early going. Most voters are are not extremists. They tend to vote for their own reasons. Having said that, the seeds of Harper's demise came from the social conservative side and his desire to end collection of data in some quarters. The cancelling the long form census and gagging government departments from reporting stuff not approved by his office was very concerning. The focus on immigrants and what they wore turned off a number of people as well as associating with the extremist side with the cultural barbaric practices hotline. Holy ICE in Canada! For Trudeau, it was the performative side of things. He went to India and was annoying in his costume and family holiday. Serious trade and security issues needed to be talked about and they were outshone by superficial stuff. Eventually, with high cost of living, the charismatic Trudeau looked destined for a thorough defeat.

Usually the leader are blind to their own weakness. And why would they think that anything other than victory was possible. Both Harper and Trudeau clobbered opposition. Liberals are not nostalgic for Trudeau insofar that they want him back. I personally believed that some of his personal foibles would have resulted in loss of position by almost every other Liberal MP if they had committed them. Still, I approved in general the change in cannabis law, the handling of the pandemic and the free trade agreement in Trump's first term. As for the cost of living and handling the crime and drug addictions, I was like many people not very happy.

It has been interesting to note in recent days that Harper and Chretien were on stage together talking about national unity. It is hard to imagine this in the U.S. right now. In fact, both men mentioned the issue of Donald Trump and how the country should come together. It was fairly funny to but it also emphasizes Poilievre's problem. While he can embrace nostalgia for Harper, he is having a hard time being critical because there are so many Trump supporters in his party, some who even welcome being the 51st state.

Based on the way the Conservatives are acting, it is clear they don't want to pull the trigger on an election right away. If the act with bravado and block things, Carney might be compelled to call a snap election and call their bluff. Minorities don't have long. If no more floor crossers join the Liberals, the election could be in 2026. Poilievre is meeting Carney to discuss the session. It doesn't seem likely he would do that if he was going to vote non-confidence in the next month.

In the mean time, conservative media will continue to say what a grand time a Harper conservative government was and say nothing bad ever happened. The relationship between Canada, the U.S. and China was never as good as some on the right have said. Harper never did get a pipeline in Canada or the U.S. either. Trudeau got the one in Canada completed. Harper kept the worst instincts of the party down until he didn't. 

Carney and Chretien were present this week when Stephen Harper had his portrait unveiled in Ottawa on 20th anniversary since he was in office. Peter McKay was present too. But no Poilievre. It was probably not a thing he wanted to show a non-partisanship appearance at. A missed opportunity to grow his base. However, his base in furious and angry. About everything. They want to control the courts and judges. They want to end bilingualism. Go to zero immigration. They will go to extremism if they see the Conservatives give on these issues.

It is hard to believe that the Harper nostalgia doesn't teach anything new to present day Conservatives. They certainly don't seem to be listening to Harper now.

Push For More Housing in 2026

I have spoken about housing on many an occasion in this blog. For many years we have seen next to nothing built in multi-unit housing. It is only in the last several years that apartment housing has really accelerated in Winnipeg. However, there are numerous examples of housing being blocked and some developments take well over a decade to get approved. It isn't very timely and for the apartments that do get approved, it doesn't come close to meeting demand.

Winnipeg continues to grow despite whatever thoughts there are to the contrary. According to the latest statistics, Winnipeg is fifth in Canada in growing municipalities. In the last years it has meant tens of thousands of new people looking for places to live. The result has been a very low vacancy rate even as apartments come on stream. 

This isn't just a Winnipeg or a Manitoba thing. It has been happening all over Canada. Or it was. The federal government putting heavy restrictions on international students and has been having a dramatic impact on prices and housing availability in parts of the country. Apartments, condos and houses themselves are coming down in price and more capacity is being built. In markets like Toronto and Vancouver, it could have an effect on what is being built by the private sector.

As for Winnipeg, we haven't seen a real change in price or vacancy rate as yet. It is probably because we are barely recovering from the superheated economy when it comes to housing. The new and pre-owned housing market is still steady in Winnipeg. Meanwhile apartments that were approved and financing arranged for over time are now being built. 

One such apartment is being built on Pembina Highway on an old motel site that eventually fell on hard times. The Capri was one of many motels that lined Pembina Highway from the 1960s till recent years. It is the type of hotel that had no hallways where you pulled up and your door was directly into the room. Only a handful exist today. The Capri had several police related visits due to crime and fire and was demolished in recent years. Now, it will be 10 storey mixed used apartment building with an enclosed parkade. Altogether, it will be 240 units. 

Pembina Highway has very slowly gained height. It has for decades been lined with one and two storey commercial and retail units with some of the taller conglomerations dating back more than 40 years ago. Not surprisingly, they have been popular with people starting out on their own or downsizing as seniors. Some of the apartments have courted seniors and have services for them such as busy to take them shopping and to medical appointments.

As mentioned many times here, the Baby Boom generation will be increasingly downsizing from larger houses and many would like to stay close to their neighbourhoods. In several neighbourhoods this is impossible. I'm talking to you River Heights. Some places are strictly single family homes and even on commercial streets like Corydon, there are fights about anything over two floors.

There are several other taller apartments under construction up and down Pembina Highway from Jubilee to the Perimeter. It seems right after the pandemic, a whole bunch of projects were approved in the last three years. Some are strictly private while others have taken advantage of civic, provincial and federal programming supports. From 1993, the federal government exited the housing market aside from mortgage assistance and rules from CMHC. They gave transfers to the provinces who largely used money for other things including tax cuts. 

The 1990s were a tough time in Winnipeg. The recession dragged on and housing prices actually went down and nothing was being built. It really took till 2000 when prices began to climb out of the basement. The commitment to getting our house in order paid off because in the stock market crash of 2008, Manitoba was doing fairly well with deficits ending and housing prices up and building going up. It took a lot longer in the United States for recovery and even other parts of Canada. in 2009, Manitoba led the Canadian economy.

The problem is that the pent up demand was for detached housing and apartments that were one and two bedrooms at market rates which were not as affordable as older places in Wolseley, Osborne Village and elsewhere. More concerning was that older places and houses that had been affordable were falling apart and coming down to be replaced by units unaffordable. This includes the various hotels along Main Street used by people with low income. There is a direct correlation to their loss and to people living on the streets.

The federal accelerator fund administered by the municipalities faced cancellation if the Conservatives were elected in 2025. It was popular even with Conservative MPs and has now had two or three tranches of approved projects that are shovel ready. A few are in the Exchange District. The previous ones are in various stages of progress. The area around Waterfront Drive started around 1999 and now has 25 years going. It attests to fact that areas along the river can attract private investment although Waterfront has required various public support with a mix of old and new buildings as well as building a road that had been gravel right to the 1990s.

Prior to Waterfront though, building in the Exchange for housing was patchwork, Condos built at the Ashdown, co-op built a street over and undeclared housing used by artists scattered through the area. Even until the 1980s there was a significant garment sector in the warehouses. The first location of the Spaghetti Factory was in the Exchange from 1970 on. And now it will see housing built on its site with 114 units. It is unclear how many floors but the building at one time had four floors before fire reduced it to one.

The latest tranche of partially funded housing is 1000 plus units with 3/4 of them affordable or geared to income. Many are in the Exchange District in properties like the St. Charles Hotel that has had development drag on 20 years. The federal money seems to have helped a lot of projects get off the ground. In two years, nearly 10,000 units have been approved with many under construction. This is almost at the goal Winnipeg has set for itself.

It hasn't been easy getting projects off the ground. It will never be a case of one and done. Places like Vienna have made a commitment to building housing for over 100 years and it has helped keep the city affordable. We relied all to heavily on low inflation, low interest rates and a number of downturns in the economy to keep housing within reach. Even so, places like Toronto and B.C. got pricey.

There are some trying to make out in nostalgia that everything was so much better back in the Chretien days or the Harper days. The seeds of our hosing problems literally go back to the Mulroney days when all federal housing was sold off and federal money only went out as transfers. In the Chretien years transfers were cut and provincial housing dried up. In the 2000s housing was boosted under Martin and Harper as inflation and interest rates declined but no housing was built that was aimed at affordability. 

There has been 25 years of prices rises which has been good for home owners who bought low but is terrible for anyone getting in the market. Now, with prices going down, it is a buyers market. It will be important that the government not prop up the real estate market by cutting supply but it might be painful for some who bought high expecting it would only go up in value. In the end though, it is better for good Canada for a decline in prices that often went up month by month.

It is going to take a while yet to catch up with how many affordable houses disappear to demolition before new places go up. And because we have so many traumatized people from being on the streets, not working and using drugs, we are going to have to have support workers. More importantly, it is better to keep people in housing because once out, it is hard to find options for them if we keep going sideways.

Carney in the Post Davos World

 

Much has been made of Mark Carney's speech in Davos, Switzerland about the current situation the world sees itself after one year of Donald Trump's return to office. It is interesting to note that is has had a world-wide response and the speech was re-printed in Le Monde and the New York Times. Donald Trump has reacted negatively and disinvited Carney to his Board of Peace. This may be a blessing for Carney. And Trump is escalating. He says he will launch 100% tariffs on Canada for the recent trade deal with China which does not involve sending any goods to the U.S. but a lowering of tariffs to pre-2024.

In Canada, Pierre Poilievre credited Carney with with an excellent speech and then went on for pages after criticizing him and his government. His main argument is that Carney has done nothing and his party has done nothing. This could be posturing for the election leadership review that Poilievre faces in two weeks. Every opportunity to bring down the minority government he has passed on. We'll see if he is ready to take the government down in February.

We don't have as many silos of only right wing or left wing views as the U.S. has. The American-owned National Post just doesn't have the reach nor does right wing radio or podcasting media in Canada have near the influence it does south of the border. Our bookstores have smaller politics section than U.S. ones where every politician or media person has a book out, it seems. Even social media is light on politics in Canada even on X (Twitter), TikTok and YouTube. Most Canadians seem to get their news from a diverse number of sources and stubbornly hug the middle in most things.

Nevertheless, Conrad Black, who received a pardon from Trump, says that Canada and NATO countries have been have been letting the U.S. do all the work. He seems to forget Afghanistan when Canada honoured Article 5 and went to fight. The first four Canadians killed in Afghanistan were killed by "friendly fire" from American forces. A total of 158 Canadian Forces killed along with 6 civilians seem to have been forgotten. Not just by Trump but by Conrad Black. The Super Conservative forgetting all this is appalling as is the soft pedaling of the disgust many Canadians feel about the threats that Black largely ignore. He gaslights us by calling it derangement syndrome.

The election in 2025 very much felt like a vote for stability when Mark Carney was elected. Canadians seemed to have a visceral response to the chaos south of the border. Many are angry at the aggressive bullying from Donald Trump. It has changed travel and shopping patterns and continues to alter them. It seems like whatever conservative media there is clearly is not reading the room at the rage against the U.S. and Trump in Canada. Every time the Conservatives blame Carney, they are likely setting their own prospects back.

The Winnipeg Sun seems to recognize that Trump's criticism of Carney helps the Liberals get their majority. The editorial believes it might be a conspiracy. The truth is a lot of conservatives are not looking for a united Canada. Some want separation. Some want 51st state. Polls consistently say that the majority in every province are against that. Even when Conservatives have power provincially and federally, there has been a separatist minority so blaming Liberals for them doesn't wash.

Pierre Poilievre had said the Liberals under Carney are not doing anything which is not exactly true. The budget passed but other pieces of legislation have been held up in the minority parliament. Parliament seems stalled as so often happens in a minority. The Carney government has announced GST relief that Poilievre says he will support. Since it is a financial measure, a vote down would likely trigger an election which Conservatives don't seem prepared for.

Trump might be miffed with Carney and his ambassador and cabinet are uttering threats and encouraging separation of Alberta. The ambassador seems perplexed why we won't just surrender our industry to the U.S. or why we'd consider them a threat? Not entirely sure some in Trump's team will every get why were not on board with their plans. Ultimately, it could be Carney is waiting for the Supreme Court to weigh in on the tariffs. Based on the questions the Supreme Court had for Trump officials, it seems likely they are worried that it might be an overreach on Congress and their constitutional power. However, given how the administration looks to dump the Second Amendment when it is a anti-Trump rally and shoot a protestor, who knows?

Although Poilievre has been critical of it, Carney has been travelling lots. He will continue to do in 2026 with India and Australia in search of business and security deals. The Europeans just signed a massive trade deal with India this week and Canada may be close to doing so as well. In Australia, Canada is buying a billion dollar defense system to be used in the north to detect intrusions. It is hard to believe that Poilievre would sit at home in some chauvinistic way to appeal to his base rather than making business, security and business deals around the world. His fear of being called a globalist would do harm to Canada.

Poilievre using the same talking points of the last election may not serve him well. The Canadian public has pivoted and it has a lot to do with Trump. And Poilievre still doesn't know how to respond well to Trump because a lot of his base loves the man. As we swing to separation talks in different regions, the fear is that the U.S. will meddle. They already are. And Poilievre can't be seen to lead the conga line for that. 

The Trump people have so many fires to put out that they started and the mid-term elections are happening this year. Time is running out to run on a winning message. The Supreme Court is to weigh in at any time on tariffs any time up till mid-February. This could result in a reversal of Trump tariffs. As it stands now, China has ordered many shiploads of canola at a reduced tariff and should stay within American red line limits. Prime Minister Carney might just have to wait things out till then.

For now we have to put up with Treasury Secretary Bessant and Commerce Secretary Lutnick gaslighting us about how it is Canada that started this fight with drugs crossing the border and our unfair trading practices. A list of Trump officials will have nothing good to say no matter what concessions are made. And Trump himself is likely to take it as weakness to try for a takeover. It isn't just negotiating strategies. After Venezuela, everything has to be looked at as a shakedown.

The Conservatives in Canada have been saying they are not Trump MAGA while re-posting MAGA comments. Liberal support is up mostly at the cost of the NDP and Bloc in the post Davos speech polling. The Conservatives have called it virtue signaling and said if the Liberals are not adopting the the Poilievre plan, they are doing nothing. Given the tax and GST cuts, the Liberals are not exactly doing nothing. And the canola shipments are hard to argue with except if Conservatives are saying they wouldn't sign tariff reduction deals with China.

A number of media outlets have indicated that Carney has a long list of additional travels in 2026, Some Conservatives are critical saying he should be back in Canada in Parliament facing a blocking opposition. This ignores the amount of Team Canada trips that Stephen Harper did that Conservative are extolling now. India and Australia trips are coming up and there are hints that trade agreements are pending. We can't completely replace American trade. It is simply too big and North American is too integrated to not reach a deal. However, we can't act like we are the ones blocking a deal.

It is still likely an election happens this year unless there is another few floor crossers to the Liberals. Minority governments never last long. Until then, Carney will run a government trying to mitigate the chaos in the U.S.

China

There is no doubt that China uses tariffs to punish other countries for infractions. They also use hostage diplomacy as we saw from the Two Michaels situation when two businessman were abducted when Canada responded to an extradition request from the U.S. for a Chinese exec. The Americans left us out to dry with that and we are still facing the consequences of that.

And this is part of the problem we face today is superpowers trying to acquire land, assets and influence. To an extent this has always been the way over the centuries with continental blocs held together by similar interests with one dominant who pushed their agenda the most. The Western Bloc, the Eastern Bloc and the Asian Bloc or whatever names they were called over time.

In recent years, the western alliance of NATO has been in ascendancy in that has grown and Europe by itself has become a a powerful bloc. Canada, by virtue of being a G7 country, founding member of NATO and for European ties, is part of a trans-Atlantic alliance. The U.S. is by far the largest entity in the Western alliance militarily and economically. At its best it is an example of democracy and economic innovation. At its worst, it can be authoritarian and a military menace.

Since the 1980s Canada has had a series of free trade agreements that has cemented our position as a primary trading partner with the U.S. and Mexico. It has become such a large percentage that some businesses have not really sought to expand their business elsewhere. That is, except for agriculture, where the U.S. market is saturated and protected that Canada exports around the world. 

The top two market of China and the U.S. in recent years punish Canada on trade for not obeying them. Canada is no longer naïve about China. Even in the Harper years there was a belief we could sell incredible amounts of product to China and not be dependent on the U.S. and Mexico. However, Canada quickly learned that China was looking at Canadian technology and manufacturing to access that information and then use it in their own products and limit Canadian trade. We weren't the only ones. The U.S. and Europeans also learned that China was not looking for a true free trade agreement.

So in 2026, Canada is back talking with China with a more nuanced approach. It is looking to trade more with China, especially with food but also on cheap EVs. However, like we did with the Koreans and Japanese in the 1980s, we are looking to draw more manufacturing to the country. If Ontario auto plant workers are working for BYD or GM, what does it matter? This should not be a hard thing. If the U.S. is trying to end all manufacturing of cars in Canada, why should we not seek out other manufacturers? The expectation that we only buy expensive cars from the States is nonsense.

The premier of Ontario Doug Ford is outraged about the deal to let Chinese electric vehicles in but it really goes back to 2022/23 in terms of what was in place prior. Ontario benefits now as Chinese purchases canola resume. Beef sales are also resuming. This is a good thing in a years long tariffs war. It isn't perfect or addresses interference in elections, espionage or human rights. Nothing is said on Taiwan. Canada isn't rolling over on these issues but is more likely to pick their battles more carefully. It is why Carney is going from country to country to limit our exposure to only one export market and to form buffer against dependency. This is hard when 75% of your export trade goes to the U.S.

In the 1980s there was a lot of fear about Honda, Toyota and Hyundai and Canada got them to build manufacturing plants in Ontario. I think there will wide acknowledgement that it helped makes cars affordable and the quality across the board went up. Ideally, a portion of the manufacturing comes to Canada. Some critics say it won't and say the country will lose manufacturing just as Australia did. That is possible even if Canada doesn't import Chinese EVs.

If the U.S. ends the free trade agreement with cars, all the manufacturers could move to the U.S. which is probably not great for GM, Ford and Stellantis (Chrysler). As it stands now, Canada depends on billions of subsidies to keep the car plants in Canada. Norway, Denmark and Australia don't have car industries and remain prosperous and even more productive. However, losing all your manufacturing has consequences. One example is that Canada used to produce all its vaccines. When Covid happened, we had no ability to produce anything and China cut us off.

For those who lobby strictly for only private aspects for the market, it can leave you vulnerable you to market manipulation that ends up being anti-competitive. Even within Canada anticompetitive behaviours by business. The right balance of government and business is difficult to gage. Perhaps the ones that create the fewest imbalances in society are the best.

Around 5% of export trade goes to China. That represents a lot of agriculture. For pork products that means the whole pig unlike Canada where not all is used. Because of China's past, we have to ensure that we seek out even more markets for our goods. Some things such as potash or oil products can go anywhere. As can critical minerals. The truth is we haven't looked much because we believed the U.S. market was always available. Selling gold recently has helped Canada in its international trade. India, for example, imports a lot of gold.

I don't think anyone is naïve about China in the Canadian government about the risks involved. The Carney government has to mindful of espionage, military escalation and other issues that come up. It is likely Carney won't be vocal in public about what some of the red lines are. However, I expect spies and aggressive behaviour over territory will not be ignored.

The world has been doing a lot of talking about what Canada is doing on the global stage. From Davos to Beijing, we are not doing what has been done in the past. We can't. The threats have just been too great.

Gen Z Leaving Winnipeg

Gen Z is often considered to be people born between 1997 and 2018. Everything they do as of late is drawing attention. It is a generation that is changing alcohol consumption, shopping and education because they don't do what previous generations do. To that end, each generation does their own thing. In some cases, like the Baby Boom generation, the generation is so large that it crashes through each decade like a bulldozer. Sometimes they are so small, like Generation X, they are not mentioned at all.

So if a place like Winnipeg can draw students (along with the province), how do we lose them? Jobs, wages and opportunities are a big factor. Perhaps the biggest. We can't compete with mountains and weather. 

One of the things that attract Gen Z to Manitoba has been post secondary education. From Brandon to Winnipeg and through the province there fairly decent post secondary schools. 

Gen Z in Manitoba is leaving in substantial numbers and questions are being asked as they always are about why people are leaving. The simple truth is that continued job and education opportunities await further afield. It is very competitive in that area and always has been. Alberta today probably has over 200,000 people originally from Manitoba who have re-located there.

CBC Manitoba had a panel January 13 of Gen Z students. Most of them said they are not leaving per se but did explain the rationale for those that do. In terms of higher education, sometimes Masters and Doctoral programs are elsewhere. Research money is elsewhere. To its credit, the University of Manitoba had a successful year this year in recruiting Canadians to the campus and the increase in research money has been among the highest in Canada.

The University of Winnipeg has had a decades long program of building student housing. So has Canadian Mennonite University. The University of Manitoba has lagged while private builders have begun to take on the job. However, affordable housing means units need to be built all the time with no 10 or 20 year gaps as we have seen.

One of the things the CBC panel mentioned over and over was transit. It is easy for those who have cars to dismiss those who take the bus. Young people are too young to drive or too poor to drive. The penalties and costs of campus parking has been a decades long agony for students and faculty. However, the priority on housing has been painfully slow even with so much land available.

So riding buses that require multiple transfers or require long walks or waits is looked on unfavourably. Trips to Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and elsewhere make the difference clearer when young people take trains and subways. If you don't have a car for any number of reasons, you long for good transport and affordable cost. Some would just like bike paths that connect them to parts of the city or walkable trails.

Young people, when not in school, are looking for those first employment opportunities and wage growth that help pay for rent and future home ownership. Manitoba has been known for low pay and the excuse has been lower cost of living. But it also comes with slow advancement. For those who advance in companies such as banks, insurance companies and government the promotion sometimes means a move to places like Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa. This, in and of itself, doesn't always represent a problem. While some who go away never return except as visitors, some return for a variety of reasons.

In the 1980s during the recession, Winnipeg and the province lost massive population as big employers shut down. Many people had no choice to leave as they had no job. And tens of thousands didn't come back. Calgary and Edmonton surpassed us in population. As did Ottawa. And almost Hamilton and Quebec City. The decline has ebbed since but most of Winnipeg's growth has come from immigration and birthrate and not transfers from other provinces.

Gen Z is more mobile and while there are good reasons for them to stay such as family, higher education and family, the lower wages, lack of advancement and general fewer amenities in recreation and transportation to name a few. Various interviews reinforce Gen Z observations.

As mentioned, Winnipeg can't change its climate or geography and create oceans and mountains. However, it can make sure that it corrects its missteps on buses. Buses that drive back busy stops of students, buses that are never on time, buses that don't work with student schedules, bus shelters that are broken, unsafe, bus travel that can result in violence. And as far as fast or convenient, it pales to many other places.

Up until the last few decades there were deeply affordable housing in Winnipeg. Osborne Village was known for where many people started in their first rentals. There were a few areas around town like that. While there are some less costly areas to live, the rent has gone up and the availability gone down. Since 2005, new buildings don't have any rent control for 20 years and there is a $13,500 tax credit per unit. Not surprisingly, there is apartment building going up all over the city. 

However, it takes 20 years of consistent building where you start to see deeply affordable housing at sufficient capacities. Keep in mind though that even when rent was affordable, we lost young people to other provinces because of job opportunities, wages and perceived exciting city life. Still, a commitment to affordable housing often draws back people who live elsewhere for a while and wish to get more bang for the buck. Winnipeg and the province can't take a hiatus from building as they did for nearly 20 years.

In the U.S., Gen Z is re-populating mid size cities like Raleigh and Madison. Perfect climate and geography have been less important that being able to walk places, shop locally and have things to do. In Winnipeg, The Fringe Festival and Nuite Blanche are exactly what that population likes to see. Food truck weekend, bike event and the like are high on their lists.

For work, they want flexible workplaces, clear directives and commitments with opportunities for growth. The generation is prepared to come and stay in places like Winnipeg. This is not a case of big cities and nothing else will do. The generation will respond to an authentic and dedicated appeal to them.

What they won't respond to is a city they can't travel in, afford in housing or prepared to cut them the moment there is a business rationalization to maximize profit at their expense. They are looking at communities and at their present ages, they can't see it in long commutes to suburbs.

There are things that Winnipeg is doing to appeal to Generation Z. Some of them are here already but patience in improving wages, opportunities and transportation might be too slow to keep them here initially.