Sunday, January 1, 2023

Looking Back 2022, looking forward 2023

The start of 2022 was still one mostly of lockdowns and loss. The previous Christmas was cancelled by many families because of severe outbreaks. Even this year my family was weighing the risks. We went ahead but wore masks until seated dining area was spread out. What else can you do? This year I have had Covid for second time and strep and I have been cautious and up to date with vaccines.

Our family is still reeling from the loss of our parents to Covid and an aunt who died while under restrictions due to continued outbreaks. No one wants anyone else to get sick in the family and among friends. And anyone who has gotten sick with some of the worst going on out there now knows it isn't just the sniffles.

And so it goes as the year closes, we struggle with effects of Covid. Even for the freedom lovers who want no restrictions or vaccines, getting sick or having people sick around them will affect their lives. Without being cruel about it, even a minister who preaches freedom who ignores their own health can end up dead. Viruses are not the only danger and denial won't overcome good and regular health checks.

We have been at war in our communities for the last three years. Perhaps it has been longer if you think about the dispute between urban, rural and northern, men and women, religion, language, race and whatever else seems to get our goat. Don't know that any of us are completely free of it. It is often a battle with ourselves. I've done it myself. And the last year or so, I have literally ended relationships because of the level of toxicity. I've resolved to try not to be toxic myself. It doesn't mean overlooking conflict but I will not to engage with it or fuel it.

It probably doesn't help with people in smaller and smaller tribes but mental and physical health doesn't last if family, work, church or community make you ill. Safety is so important for yourself and to escape someone else's unpleasantness. The story of the murders in the Ontario highrise sounds like someone's toxic nature grew to such a rage that it posed a danger to everyone. And eventually did. It is scary. How can you protect yourself?

The explosion in murders in Winnipeg though often seems linked to hard drugs and domestic abuse primarily. And the serial murders are a bitter reality of the vulnerability for women. The provincial government seems stuck with what to do about the lack of housing and hard drugs. Arresting and jailing addicts doesn't appear to end their addictions in prison. Manitoba's prisons are like an episode of Oz except for more murders.

The recent civic election had some elected officials wanting the election to only about about roads and potholes but the issue of crime, housing, drugs and murder is now impossible to ignore. It is hard to talk today about building the Peguis extension when the the city dump is being blocked by people in anguish over lost family. And the truth is that if it had been three police officers buried there, the chief would have never said there would be no attempt at recovery. His own force would have turfed him. Before the end of the day.

But let's not focus all on the bad even if it can seem overwhelming seeing and hearing it about it first hand ourselves. I think we can be glad that employment is at historically high levels. Wages, according to data, have gone up. Immigration is at levels not seen since confederation. Business investment is starting to grow. And residential units planned years ago are finally coming on stream now including the tallest residential tower in Winnipeg.

Of course this is countered by inflation and difficulty in finding workers. Add to that the high cost and availability of housing. The planning and the actual building of houses takes years. It isn't just zoning that takes time but finances, supply chains and contractors to build. Some student housing near the University of Manitoba has been in the planning and building stage for several years. Thankfully, it is coming on stream just as international student demand is exploding. However, the university has already been painfully slow on getting housing built on the abundant land it already has. Still, if you look up and down Pembina Highway there are more high rises being built than in many decades. Some are within the affordable level that students need as well as part of their financing package.

If Canada's immigration level goes up by 500,000 a year as forecast and we have a million foreign students across the county and we only have 300,000 housing units built a year, we have shortfalls already. And they get bigger every year. Starting plans now and having a multi-unit building up in six years will mean we still are scrambling for housing even as apartments and houses go up in the future. Moreover, spreading housing farther and farther from city centers will only stretch service further and further. Costs will go up.

For those thinkin the answer is to cut immigration and student intake, they should consider that business is already struggling to fill all positions including high paying ones. Unemployment is at lows not seen since the Second World War. Restaurants and family businesses are closing for lack of workers. And while pay increases could help, many businesses already do that with no takers either. It is workers choice out there. Many just ghost after applying or doing some shifts. There is just better opportunities out there.

Another few areas where we have seen problems in capacity in 2022 if healthcare, education and professional skills from IT to engineering. There has been too few people trained, too many retiring and too large an increase in need. The provincial government is begging for more health federal supports but there is no evidence that the the province won't just use it for tax cuts. Plus, there revenue situation looks to turn into a surplus in 2023 and yet they still look at the federal government for tax transfers. Presumably for ever more tax cuts. Sadly, tax cuts won't add more doctors. They don't come for the tax cuts.

In the debate about the Manitoba Clinic, a letter from a former doctor there said that both the NDP and the PCs limited the clinics from charging fee for service and having hospital privileges. Certainly, there has been a strategy over the years to limit how many people graduate from nursing, medical and diagnostic programming. Past government have recruited overseas rather than training people here. But rules changes have made it harder so that even trained nurses from other provinces are are finding it hard to move to Manitoba. Add it all up and healthcare reform is needed so that money that does arrive in the system has some accountability.

The election in 2023 provincially will mean that it is hard to avoid going before the media. It isn't impossible but someone like the Health Minister won't be able to stay unavailable as she often does now. Nor will the crime and drug issues be something that the province can blame the city or the feds for. Certainly there will be an attack on the NDP but the blame game going back several years has not moved the polls this time. The Tories are trying to hang a defund the police rap on the Wab Kinew but their own record on not funding the department of Justice falls on them alone.

The issue of drugs, crime and homelessness is something that requires real solutions. The shouts of one side to end capitalism and redistribute wealth and the other side to criminalize homelessness and addiction does not resonate. And it will be curious what sort of solution they come up with the library. Staff want to feel secure and activists want a library with no security checks. The activists got what they want and the result was murder. The librarians got what they want and only the lobby is open. Not great solutions.

The activists should lobby to be part of outreach at the library. That is doable. People who can do wellness checks, assist in arranging coffee, food, counselling, housing assistance and healthcare. The law and safety advocates should should lobby for measures that don't profile people and actually contribute to safe places rather than a security force prepared to make takedowns and arrests. Security measures at the door and inside the building along with outreach and assistance workers is the solution. How it could be anything else is beyond me? Extremist positions on either side have made matters worse.

 In 2023, I'm not sure how many Canadians are aware of just how fast some of the technology changes will be. In Norway, for example, all Hyundai cars sold in that country will be be electric. Canada is slower than that with the mandate that all cars sold be electric by 2035. However, that means over the next years massive infrastructure of charging stations will be built by businesses, homeowners and energy companies. In Winnipeg, it likely means we'll see a push for electric buses at a faster pace since this is the manufacturing hub. And you can expect all couriers and delivery vehicles like Amazon and Fed Ex trucks to be electric far quicker than anyone expects. 

Think of what this means just in Winnipeg. It isn't just emissions from cars but the roar of car, bus and truck engines will be ended after a hundred years. Electric cars just don't have that level of engine noise. It literally changes everything. Canada has just opened its first electric car manufacturer. It won't be the last. And from building batteries to mining lithium, Canada will have leading roles. The only place that lithium is mined in Canada is in Manitoba. Expect to see more of that.

Farmers will continue to have to innovate. While productivity, automation and digitization will help the businesses, there is a strong need to work electrifying farm vehicles, creating energy from the land, storing carbon in the soil and innovating fertilizer. Food security must be looked at with the problems demonstrated in the supply chain. We grow great vegetables in Manitoba. Something to think about when lettuce from California is not available.

We often work against our own best self interests out of fear, stubbornness, ideology, hatred or contrariness.  Presently, we have a government that is bent toward cutting tax. Not always but in general such as the education tax, However, they are far less clear when indicating how they will pay for it if we are to maintain a public education system. It isn't that they don't use tax support to leverage investment. For example, the province had given just under $5 million to support direct flights to Los Angeles via Westjet. The contract is reviewed every six months and money is only paid out if the flights themselves don't pay off. 

All evidence suggests that the TV and movie industry will benefit strongly from direct flights to LA,. The addition of three more soundstages in the city can and will bring in more productions. There is no sunlight in the positions of all three parties in the Legislature on support for the the industry. As it should be. Expect more and more people working in TV and film, gaming and entertainment in the next years.

I don't think anyone will regret 2022 ending, I know very few people who aren't doing something different this coming year. I certainly am.

Best to all in 2023, Let's hope for a recovery in more ways than one for the new year.

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