Wab Kinew Leads NDP to Government in 2023 Election

First of all congratulations are in order to Wab Kinew who led his NDP to a victory over the two term Progressive Conservatives. The NDP stuck on message about health care but also on not reversing some Heather Stefanson announced policy changes in the lead up to the election, mostly pertaining to fiscal. On issues such as searching the landfill, they were for it while PCs were against it. 

The complete collapse of the PCs in the election could be attributed to so many conservatives stepping down earlier, the difficulties in generating momentum for a third majority and the policies needed for it. A winning campaign was just not what ended up happening. It kept going more negative and evidence in Canada has shown over the decades that there is not nearly the taste for it here.

Some of the ads featuring past brushes with crime or unsavoury aspects of an NDP candidate probably did as much harm to Tories if not more. After a number of elections already, past behaviour of Wab Kinew has been part of the calculus of how people have voted already. It can be fair to ask to ask about the background of candidates but the electorate are more likely to assess on the most recent years for suitability if they have held office for a while. In other words, the attack on Kinew's background during an election likely drew more cynicism and probably was regarded as a distraction from the policy record of the government over seven years.

The amount of cabinet ministers who went down to defeat and the near defeat of Stefanson in her own riding is likely to have repercussions on the direction of the party.  Future and past leadership candidates are indicating early that they are not interested in the job. Some Tories lost their seats so running again for leadership might mean sitting on the sidelines unless one of their own steps aside for byelection.

In any event, Progressive Conservatives and Liberals will have at least four years of re-building ahead. Traditionally, Manitobans give a new government two terms so new leaders can expect to be in opposition up to 8 years. Certainly Kinew spent years in opposition himself before winning a majority. Such time allows for the leader and party to develop a strategy to win and govern. However, you can just as easily say that the electorate just gets tired of the governing party after two two terms and voters defeat governments rather electing governments. That is not to say the NDP or any new government doesn't have a mandate but it is worth considering how deep the support really is. On other words, a controversial agenda might sink a new government.

Expectations are high based on promises made by Kinew in the election. There may be some wiggle room such as when Gary Doer said the electorate could defeat the government if they did not fulfill their emissions promises. They didn't and Doer didn't take it to a vote but stepped down to let Greg Selinger lead his party to defeat. Voters will likely measure the new government in health outcomes, crime reduction and economic markers. There will be a honeymoon period but not an everlasting fountain of good will.

The instinct to concentrate power in the premier's office will be strong. Kinew has already said that the cabinet will be smaller. This is wise if only for the reason that parceling off responsibilities will dilute cabinet and the effectiveness of ministers. There are a lot of new people coming aboard. Most will have a tough time even knowing how to be a MLA and where the washrooms are in first months. Still, this is no excuse for taking all power and decision-making into the premier's office. 

It would be wise to strengthen the committees of the Legislature which have been extremely limited in recent years. It is one way to assess worthy cabinet appointees sometime later and a better way to suss out issues and sort out policies in a bipartisan format. It is a big mistake to have a caucus of 34 where the majority don't have anything to do.

The NDP and Wab Kinew have some room to maneuver as the other two parties begin a slow rebuild. It will be the public and expectations that will be a challenge even if the opposition in the house is blunted and smaller. It is hard to know what unexpected things can happen such as a deep recession, fire or flood or societal breakdown. It will be important to have competent people in place and a plan. There will be little patience for scandal or sub-standard performance.