The Exodus from Winnipeg

Winnipeg experienced a net loss of 7.140 people July 1 of 2021 to July 1 of 2022. It is the worst drop in 20 years. Even before the pandemic in 2019, the number was 6,607. It only dropped in 2020 when people were not easily able to move because of Covid 19. Statistics Canada has reported in its latest data that Winnipeg has seen more people leave for other provinces for 20 years straight. While this could be blamed on the city of Winnipeg government, keep in mind that Brandon last year lost 981 people and Thompson 163.

The numbers have worsened in recent years but under NDP and PC governments provincially, it has been consistently bad. Were it not for immigration and birthrate, Manitoba would be in steady decline. There are no studies of why people leave. Anecdotally, the media will quote reasons from those who have left but there is no break down done from post-exit interviews that could assist in changes to government and businesses policies. Good data means better response to get people to move in or move out.

If crime data is all people see, it is not putting our best foot forward. We have our own Bureau of Statistics, we should be compiling data to act on. So much information is buried or requires freedom of information request and money to get a handle on. In many cases the government seems incurious after 20 years and collects no data. They don't want an answer. It is easier to blame past governments although the same results follow the new government.

It is not all bad news. Manitoba, and by extension Winnipeg, has attracted many immigrants through the innovative provincial nominee program. All political parties are agreed on it and it has kept the province from slipping into negative growth. The TV and film industry continues an upward cycle and requires more people each year and all months of the year. Manufacturing, agriculture, energy, financial services and insurance are diverse and strong sectors for the city. Post secondary education and government also contribute to the strength of Winnipeg.

So what are the cons that people outside of Manitoba have towards Winnipeg. In some case, we can't help those impressions and in other cases, we can.

Cons

- Extreme temperatures. Cold or hot, Winnipeg has them both.

- Mosquitoes. Some years terrible, other years tolerable.

- Crime. The numbers don't lie. It is too high.

-Poverty. Some of the poorest census districts are in Winnipeg nationally.

- Homelessness. The numbers are increasing and the housing strategy is too slow, too expensive and uncoordinated.

- Addictions. Winnipeg has a drug and alcohol problem. It is a health problem that can't afford to not have treatment available to those looking to receive it and know there are no spaces. And support has to be more consistent after.

- Downtown, Too spread out with safety issues for those who live and work in the area. 

- Public transportation. Safety issues in recent years and only one rapid corridor after decades of planning. Not nearly enough buses or security to make more people give up their cars.

- Not as senior friendly. While some seniors are able to go to warmer spots and return to Winnipeg. Some are making the choice to move to parts of Canada such as B.C. where they are able to be more independent and face less adversity being outdoors.

- Poor minimum wages, poor professional wages with respect to other jurisdictions in Canada.

- Crumbling infrastructure of roads, bridges, water and sewer makes it difficult to to service the community or expand capacity on existing infrastructure.

- City planning that fails to see sidewalks built of any kind on large lengths of streets like Kenaston or gaps like northside of Sterling Lyon Parkway among other places.

- Falling amounts of affordable apartments or any rentals of any kind. It makes it difficult for people who are students, newly arrived in Canada, those looking to downsize, upsize a bedroom for kids or simply don't want to live in a detached house.

Since Winnipeg grew by nearly 20,000 people, the have to advantages too.

Pros:

- Low unemployment. The city of Winnipeg continues to grow because there are jobs in the city. And those numbers have been steady.

- Steady economy. Other jurisdictions have highs and lows. Ask Alberta. While resources have driven growth, they have had painful times related to world market prices. Winnipeg have a very diversified economy. It has not had such roller coaster times.

- 24 hour airport. There are few in North America and the advantage for Winnipeg has been and will be worth billions. It has triggered the 20,000 acre Centreport which has over 1000 tenants and has air, road and rail connections. If Winnipeg cannot have a port on the ocean, it can have a port on land.

- Post Secondary Schools. They attract tens of thousands of students and the city has four universities, multiple colleges and several training schools. Foreign students numbers are rising all over Canada. Winnipeg needs to make room for the thousands of residential units needed. Many of these students will be in the city for years and in some cases make Winnipeg their home long term.

- More Affordable Housing. Home ownership is just a dream for some in the most active markets of Toronto and Vancouver. There are a number of options for housing with schools and recreation nearby that are attractive to those who might have worked for a number of years and have not been able to buy a home elsewhere.

- Diverse population. For immigration outside Canada, Winnipeg is attractive as there is usually a support system in place of people already calling the city home whether you are from Ukraine, Philippines, Syria of wherever. 

- Strong arts community. Winnipeg has a huge theatre, music, literature and arts community. One of the fastest growing areas is TV and film and with the addition of new soundstages and direct flights to LA. Some of the past productions that took a pass on Winnipeg will have it back at the top of their lists because of the advances in available flights, soundstages and crews. It is possible to work full-time in various aspects of production within Manitoba.

Winnipeg should not feel so bad. Other cities including Toronto and Vancouver have seen people leave. However, in the case on Ontario, Toronto loses to other urban areas of Ontario,

As long as Winnipeg remains attractive to immigration, growth will be in the thousands added every year. Some suitable economic growth areas have received government and business focus. The location for the city as an inland port is ideal over, say Edmonton and Calgary. Calgary is three hours from the border and the biggest cities in the U.S. are closer to Vancouver or Winnipeg. In short, cargo landing in Calgary or Edmonton, which is even farther away, will take some time to reach a U.S. destination.

Winnipeg, by contrast, is one hour from the border and is connected by three rail lines and a major highway that runs through several major cities all the way to the third largest city in the U.S.: Chicago. It is faster in some cases to land a cargo aircraft in Winnipeg overnight, unload it, put it on a truck and arrive faster in Chicago rather than landing in Chicago in the first place. Centreport could attract even greater cargo capacity and therefore employment.

The move to electric vehicles bodes well for Winnipeg since New Flyer and Motor Coach Industries are based in Winnipeg and are at the forefront of electric bus development and manufacturing. In keeping with the climate file, Manitoba has lithium mining for batteries taking place in Snow lake, Manitoba and the processing plant will be built at Centreport for 2025. Manitoba has nine of the critical metals needed for improving and changing technology for climate change. More than one processing plant might end up being built in the city.

One of the fastest ways to decrease transfers of people out of the province is to make sure more people find a reason to come to your province for education. In 2022, both University of Winnipeg and University of Manitoba rated very high for student satisfaction in Canada. International students are increasing in numbers at both schools and will continue to if adequate housing, flexibility in work and supports encourage this pattern. For many years insufficient housing has plagued all our main universities.  Inter-provincial student migration increases are possible if something is being offered that is not available elsewhere. Winnipeg has a medical school, a dental school, law school and more. We graduate too few doctors and there needs to be a plan that makes it worthwhile for graduates to stay. Some of the doctors at the medical school are in the top per cent of research papers and cutting edge medical science.

Arts, as mentioned, is a huge booster of tourism and jobs. Folk Festival and Folklorama have in the past driven tourism into the province and contributed to employment of artists, hospitality companies and government revenues. TV and film continues to increase and is in a far more stable and predictable arc than in the 1980s and 1990s. Hollywood wants to save money but keep quality and that fits the bill in Winnipeg. And Canadian TV series are now being shot in the city regularly which is good all around. Thousands of people are employed in the arts and the more work they have, the less need there is to move to do work.

There is not much we can do about the weather but work, wages, advancement in career, training and education and picking our spots for growth will help. Energy from hydro is likely to become ever more important, especially with states like Minnesota making it law that they seek out cleaner energy. Conversion of transportation to electric and lithium processing will also contribute to growth. The deficit the city presently faces and the fact that a majority of it comes from snow removal is proof positive Winnipeg has a lot of roads that we maintain. It isn't wrong to think what ten years from now will look like. You can't park cars on the street and drive them without power supply. Assigned parking will be necessary and if a home has two, three or four cars, they will have to be cycled through charging. And if an apartment has dozens of cars parked on the street, they will have to seek out charging areas and wait. It is safe to assume a paradigm shift will happen. A future Winnipeg might include rental cars when you need them.

All in all changes are happening and an aging population will have to stay closer to home and populated areas as they require home care and beyond. The exodus out of cities like Winnipeg can't be sustained because no one will build a hospital or sufficient nursing homes in exurbia. Already people are making difficult choices when insurance is too high to go to Mesa, or living at the lake in Ontario means too far away from visits to the specialist...in the Thunder Bay.

One hopes the government acts rather than reacts. Short term thinking can hurt. There is some inkling things are headed to a turning point. Planning and stable financing to support that plan will mean vital cities like Winnipeg needs and wants. The future does not have to be grim.

Burger King Now Open at Seasons at Tuxedo

If it seems like an overflow of activity from Seasons at Tuxedo, it is because so much constructions has reached conclusion, is nearly done or about to put shovels in the ground. The rush is to complete as much as possible. Polo Park is about to embark on a huge expansion with housing and retail and Kenaston Kapyong Barracks. At the pace Seasons is going, it is not unreasonable that by the end of 2023, there will be no undeveloped land left.

Last year Burger King indicated they were going to be opening more Burger Kings in Manitoba and renovating others. True to their word, two more have gone up bring the number in Winnipeg to about 14. One has gone up on Empress and another at Seasons of Tuxedo. During the pandemic pretty much every McDonald's in Winnipeg renovated. Other franchises are only catching up.

Burger King is looking to challenge McDonald's in Winnipeg. For years, they have been in locations that are less lucrative than the Golden Arches. That seems to have changed only recently.

Above the Empress location with Khab Tapioca and Chung Chun Rice Hotdogs. Expect to see more Asian fast food, casual dining and fine dining in Polo Park area in the next years. And the missing area across the city is curry shops.

As noted about Seasons, it isn't a standard mall. If it was, it would have some of the problems affecting the smart centers across the country. They have waited for some miracle retailer that is just not coming.

Just down the street the Smart Centre is struggling to fill spaces that have been vacant for some time. It is only now they they have freed themselves to seek out businesses that would not have had a chance to be located there in the past. In short, the focus on retail with a few restaurants is far too limited for success.

Contrast this with Seasons with a huge residential area, hotels and non-movie house attractions such as Rec Room. Also, contributing to livability are dentist, vet, pharmacies, fitness studios and banks and financial services. What is unacceptable is after ten years is that there is still no sidewalk from Kenaston to Red River Co-Op Grocery. None.

Presently, there are only internal pathways but none connecting south Sterling Lyon. The city is letting down the community. All of Kenaston in the area not having sidewalks is an embarrassment and dangerous.

One section after another of construction is going on so the community should expect to see people explore what is actually present. More and more people are walking within the area. In some cases, it easier to step out of your residence, skip the car and walk to the grocery or pharmacy.

Not as heavy on the cannabis stores here but I'm assuming the days of 200 locations will come to be a rationalization of them. Seasons has a liquor store and a beer vendor too. Say what you will be you know what Osborne Village and South Osborne don't have? A beer vendor.

The pictures above will be the 5000 square foot Krispy Kreme. It will be clearly visible at the busy corner of Kenaston and Sterling Lyon.

Across from Krispy Kreme is IG Wealth Management. Some of their meetings will feature donuts soon.

Few vacancies remain in completed sections. Hair and nail salons are also present. A large medical tests centre is on site.

Foot traffic and car traffic going by from commuters and local residents will come in handy. This week a few more restaurants have shuttered elsewhere in the city because it has been hard to find workers, people have not returned to office and high inflation. It hasn't easy.

At the moment Seasons has the momentum and Burger King opening should see success at such a busy location. 

Burger King and Tim Horton's Coming to Seasons of Tuxedo

Even in the pandemic, construction in Manitoba never abated. And at Seasons of Tuxedo north and south of Sterling Lyon  there was no let up even as the Outlet Collection Mall was closed or on reduced hours.

On the south side of Sterling Lyon, adjacent to the Rec Room and across from the mall is construction of a Tim Horton's with drive-thru. It is likely that from an apartment window, you will be able to see two and possibly three Tim's already.

Just south of the Tim's (which this week is just working on the drive-thru part) will be a Burger King also featuring a drive-thru.

It might seem like no big deal but keep in mind the majority of River Heights and Tuxedo has no drive-thrus. No Tim's till Charleswood and that has only been in recent years. It is for this reason that two Tim Horton's are so close to each other on Kenaston. Demand is high for those who work, shop and live in the area.

Even with the pandemic on, work has not stopped on the Seasons of Tuxedo north and south of Sterling Lyon. Retail and restaurants is the least interesting from a demographic point of view. What has been interesting is how many multi-unit housing units have been going up. Since the population in the area 10 years earlier was zero, this represents a significant lift in density and is affecting transit in ways that is likely to see growth. 

Still, this is a car world we live in and without a doubt this will cause more cars to pull in and out of this side of Sterling Lyon. While there is talking of synchronized lights, you cannot turn off Kenaston heading west without hitting two lights that will always stop you. And the wait times are getting longer.

To date, there is still no sidewalk or bikepath on the northside of Sterling Lyon at Seasons of Tuxedo. It is an oversight that is having real consequences for safety because it means unnecessary crossing just to use the east/west sidewalks and bike paths.

I have no problem adding restaurants to the area but more has to be be done for those who now actually live right in this retail hotspot.