North Dakota Election 2012 Part 2

Congressman Rick Berg (R) decided not to seek re-election to the House of Representatives only two years after winning the seat. The chance to sit in the open Senate seat was just too tempting and he is now in a tough race with former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D).

The result of Berg's decision is that is now an open Congressional seat in the state as well.

North Dakota has only one seat in the House of Representatives chosen at large by the voters of the state. For many years it was held by the Democrats until Rick Berg (R) wrested it away from Earl Pomeroy (D).

The choice for President in North Dakota seems a foregone conclusion  Since 1964, they have always voted Republican. Mitt Romney can probably call this one of the safer states he has.

This doesn't mean there isn't room for Democrats. For a time, the state had two Democrats in the Senate and one in the House of Representatives. In the past two years that dropped to only one: Senator Kent Conrad (D). He retired this year.

Exciting times for North Dakota. The Republicans have chosen a candidate close to the Tea party movement. Kevin Cramer, Commissioner of the North Dakota Public Service Commission that regulates utilities,  is a two time loser in running for the Congressional. Most of his jobs since the 1990s have come from state posts tied to the Republican governor.

The Democrats have chosen Pam Gulleson, a fifth generation farmer and presently a staff officer of the North Dakota Farmers Union. She served in North Dakota House of Representative from 1993 to 2009 as well as chief of staff to former Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan for nine years.

There have been no recent polls out on this election race but some media are calling it an competitive race. There may be some ticket splitting as voters weigh a vote for Romney with how they vote for the Senate and House of Representatives.

In terms of Canada, it appears that both candidates are strong supporters of the oil and coal industry. How this plays out for Canada is anyone's guess but pipelines are a debate that will have happen after this election take place.

North Dakota Election 2012 Part 1

The North Dakota election is turning into a real dogfight with the decision of Senator Kent Conrad of the Democrats not to run. He is the last Democrat standing in the state at the federal level. Former Governor of the state, John Hoeven (R) is the junior senator for the Republicans elected in 2010 when an opportunity came for change when the former Senator Byron Dorgan (D) decided not to run. On the House of Representatives side, North Dakota's single seat is represented by Rick Berg (R) who defeated Earl Pomeroy (D) primarily over federal Obamacare in 2010. It was the first time that the Republicans would take the seat in 24 years.

North Dakota is not the state it was 20 years ago. It has taken major hits due to flooding both from the Red River and from Devil's Lake and struggled as an agricultural state with a small, spread out population. Events have turned and even in the face of a recession, North Dakota has arisen as the second largest oil producer in the United States. There is a new muscularity to the state as wealth flows in from deep wells in the once sleepy west side of the state.

From Manitoba's perspective, North Dakota has represented itself as a weekend destination for a vacation and shopping. It is a very long and friendly relationship albeit once sided. Not many North Dakota people head north for a holiday, fewer for shopping. Americans now require a passport to travel outside the country and many don't have one. It seems the one sided relationship will continue. One imagines if it suddenly became much cheaper and much more vibrant on the shopping side, North Dakotans would flock across. Alas, it has never been that way.

Manitoba pays little attention to North Dakota politics. It should. Over the years, with a cross the board federal presence of Democrats, we found that Pomeroy, Conrad and Dorgan were no friends to Canada on trade. In short, they hammered us.

Like many Canadians, Manitobans probably skew more Democrat save for a number of Harper Tories who attended the Republican National Convention. In terms of trade and movement of people, the Democrats have not exactly been friendly to us. Some say that Barack Obama appears to have little interest in furthering the relationship with Canada and some academic papers have been written on the subject. Still, we are used to this as we saw that George W. Bush had a single minded interest on Mexico.

In contrast to the Democrats, Senator John Hoeven is a leading advocate for the Keystone XL pipeline. Ultimately, Kent Conrad broke with his party to vote for the pipeline but was undecided right up to the end.

The focus this years for Election 2012 will be filling Kent Conrad's seat. The Democrats and Republicans are fighting hard. For the Democrats, the torch bearer is Heidi Heitkamp, the former state attorney general.  Her links to the energy industry is a far cry from past Democrats linked strongly to agriculture. She has no hesitation supporting Keystone XL.

The Republicans have turned to Representative Rick Berg, a former real estate developer and state legislator. Only two years before Tea Party supporters helped him defeat Earl Pomeroy in the House of Representatives.

It should have been a cakewalk to the Senate. It has been a dogfight instead. The issues have been healthcare, managing the economy and the size of government. While the State has supported every republican since 1964, it has had many years of Democrats on the state and federal level. It isn't a complete right of center state by any means. It is the only state requiring pharmacists to own 51% of the pharmacy, the only state with a state owned bank and a state owned flour mill. Down right communist, don't you think?

There has been a tendency to balance the odds a bit in the state. The Republicans are in control in many offices in the state and there is probably a re-evaluation in part based on that old agricultural axiom: eggs in one basket.

A tracking of various polls has the lead with Rick Berg but Heidi Heitkamp has narrowed the advantage to only four points, practically within the margin of error.

What would be better for Canada? Hard to say. One thing is appears clear and that is the Democrat won't be the thorn in the side on trade that some previous representatives were.

One of the races to watch in November of this year.

Tea Party and Reform Party of Canada

CNN is running a story about how the Tea Party movement and the Reform Party of Canada share some traits in how the right has been shaken.

Preston Manning is quoted widely in the story.

I was in Florida in April and saw the Tea Party with its protest signs about how Barack Obama was not born in America. It was one of the more milder signs I saw.

The Tea Party is going after any person on the right who is not deemed right enough. The result could be that Independents and moderate Republicans might not have a home in the party. It is difficult to say whether this will be an impediment to election fortunes in the U.S. where there are only two main parties. Still, if some on the right decide as Florida's governor has to run as independents, the right might find it splits the vote.

The Reform Party in Canada had a hard time escaping from the narrow politics it had staked out. The party eventually killed off the Progressive Conservatives and I think it can be said that the present Conservative Party of Stephen Harper has no Red Tories or progressives in it. This allowed for a reunification of the right minus this significant component from past decades.

It isn't a reach to say that Harper will have a hard time ever reaching a majority so long as centrists remain uncomfortable with the more ideological aspects of Harper's government.

As far as the Tea Party goes in the U.S., the same desire for centrist politics could hurt the conservative movement from making long term, sustainable gains. The anger now about the recession could see Tea Party people nominated and even elected but hardcore right stances could result in their defeat just as quickly if they espouse racist or hyper intolerant views as some have in the past months.



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