Winnipeg Transit Free for Kids

Transit rides for under 11 accompanied by adults has been part of bus transport for some time. The city, with provincial funding, has added students with ID from school age 12 to 21 to the free users. It is a one year project to see how it will run. It is just under a $90 a month benefit for students per child in Winnipeg. The cost savings for a family with two kids could be as high as $1,500. The program will run in Winnipeg, Brandon, Flin Flon, Selkirk and Winkler. Across all those communities the province will set aside $10 million.

It is such a modest investment with real money savings for families that is hard to believe it hasn't been considered before now. And given that the province has invested in things like a $5 million plus daycare that remains shuttered and a source of crime, it seems like this is a good idea whose time has come.

Young people will take the bus to things like school events when school buses are not operating such as weekends, evenings and holidays. They will go to recreation facilities, concert venues, museums, movie theatres, restaurants or to see grandma if they have the buses, routes and their student ID. One other aspect is that kids can use this during the year when not at school to work. This could be one of the more meaningful benefits to being a student and families in terms of cost and enriching the lives of those involved.

The city of Winnipeg will have to be responsive to security, capacity and routing over this test pilot. The reliability of the system could help build trust and forever users. A healthy system is not just five days of commuters but people who use it for hockey games, going to the mall and the like. It can't be a long walk to a stop, a long wait for a bus and danger every step of the way. Winnipeg Transit could use this for generational change and an accelerated timetable of rapid transit.

Gillingham seemed ecstatic that he could make this announcement during an election cycle. It almost seemed an endorsement by Kinew but it could also mean trying to get some sympathetic councillors on board when the NDP go to the polls. That might be as early as next year. It could be they are looking to knock off Obby Khan and the PCs and take the last Liberal seat. This could prove a popular urban policy.

Around the world, some cities have taken up public transportation as a truly taxpayer system for students right up to the university level. Ensuring that student cards are the price of admission is a selling point for being in school, a real savings for families that could have two or three kids and promotes an environmental response to cars on the road. It up to the city and school divisions to make use of their service and make it great and up to the province to make this permanent.

Royce Koop Seeking Conservative Nomination in Winnipeg South Centre

 

University of Manitoba professor and Winnipeg Sun columnist has indicated he will be seeking the nomination for the Conservatives for Winnipeg South Centre. The riding is presently held by the Liberal under Ben Carr, son of the last Jim Carr, former MLA and MP from the area. Carr was recently re-elected in 2025. The riding has been one of the most consistent federal Liberal riding for nearly five decades. The next election is, at best, three years away now the Mark Carney has a majority.

By all accounts, Koop has been a well liked professor at University of Manitoba. He has degrees from all over Canada and has taught at many Canadian  universities. When he wrote at the Free Press, there was insightful analysis. His columns in The Sun and sometimes National Post are all opinion pieces. His focus pretty much all the time is the Liberal party and why it is bad for Canada. He also writes for the conservative digital news service call The Hub. Just this week, Conrad Black, a frequent contributor said Trump is a good president and his name in the Epstein Files is irrelevant.

Koop is known as a fairly partisan conservative. His Sun columns and podcasts with Kevin Klein have been focused against the NDP in Manitoba and the Liberals in Ottawa. As an academic he is well aware of the micro and macro of the political economy. He knows how the Westminster system works. He is well aware of the ideology of every political party in the country. Knowing all this, his political opinion of things overlooks the failures of his own party and focuses on the failures of the other guys.

It it is unclear if there is competition for the nomination for the federal riding. The last candidate for the Conservatives in the riding was Royden Brosseau, an engineer and businessman, who hasn't indicated that they will run again. Joyce Bateman won for the Tories in 2011 but lost to Jim Carr the following election. It has been a very Liberal since the 1980s even through many Conservative governments.

The Conservatives have felt this riding, with a mix of wealth and high education, has been ripe for the plucking for decades but have continually come up short. And by a long ways most of the time. And some of the right who campaigned in the riding have often shown a level of racism and anti-Semitism dating back to the Reform party. Given the  Jewish strength in the riding, conservatives often think they take the the seat. But that assumes a monolithic viewpoint of Jewish Canadian votes. It dismisses Jewish roots in a spectrum of views rather than single issue politics.

Royce Koop will likely face challengers for the nomination which is might might fight off being more right of center. He will then have to show the riding he can represent all the people that live there. There are many government workers, artists and small business people who live in the riding. Many will be ever alert to threats to health, education and and areas they feel passionate about.

The lesson learned from Pierre Poilievre's defeat in his own riding is that many people in the Ottawa area were afraid of slash and burn policies that could affect their jobs and workplaces. It is possible that if Trudeau had still been in power in 2025 in the election, even Winnipeg South Centre would have turned blue. However, the Liberals turned to Carney and the Trump changed the election into an existential threat. That threat still hangs over Canada.

I suppose the benefit of Koop getting the nomination early is that he can get a feel of the riding. You can bet they will be reading his columns, watching podcasts and so will his opposition. If Carney nose dives in the polls, it is possible this seat can turn over. But it is likely it will only be a narrow window and the community will be watching like hawks the whole time.

Lowering Gas Tax

The continuing war has led to the new majority government of Mark Carney to lower the excise tax on gas 10 cents. For diesel and aviation fuel the drop is 4 cents In the next days and week, summer fuel comes on the market and it costs an additional fivc cents a litre.  And there is no telling how long the war continues. Even if oil begins to flow, resumption of pre-war prices is forecast not to happen this year and maybe never.

There is a lot of cynicism. Some are saying that the money should be used for other things to make life affordable. It is about $2.5 billion that is out of government coffers. The suggestion is that the money could be used to pay for 10,000 nurse for an entire year. If only that would end the nurse shortages. As with most things, it is very complicated.

With gas 40 cents higher than a year ago, some people asked to comment on media were begging government to somehow get it lowered back to that. Covid, global recessions and market manipulations have dropped gas prices way low from time to time. But what have we learned? Not much. It is when people buy the biggest vehicles. However, they can run into sticker shock if gas goes high which happens fairly often. Unlike the housing market, there are no guardrails against gas shooting through the roof. 

The war in the Middle East is outside Canada's control. What Canada can control is access to some critical supplies like helium where 30% is supplied by Qatar. Even before this there has been a shortage of this element that is central in things like MRI machines. Perhaps the private sector will take up the cause and invest here. There is a role for government in this.

As for reserves that other countries have such as the U.S., Canada has never needed since we are a net exporter. The price though is set worldwide. It doesn't matter if we have enough supply for ourselves. And we are not Venezuela or Saudi Arabia that subsidize fuel prices for locals. And where countries have subsidized, it hasn't helped their economies.

Reducing tax as a inflation relief strategy has to be measured against how much government revenue is lost versus how much costs of living. And once you reduce tax, the very act of doing show can in itself cause inflation. It is a balancing act. Most industries will all beg for tax relief while as the same time say the roads are terrible. Well, government revenue is required for infrastructure. 

The war has been a shock to the system so a temporary measure to help is understandable. The excise tax of 10 cents has been frozen since 1995. Adjusted for inflation, it should be 17 cents now. An argument for tax reform can be made, especially transparency and fairness. But some people, often richer, think taxes are only for the poor. No one likes taxes but they are a dense collection of fees that are confusing even to accountants.

The ceasefires in the Middle East usually have the same result every time. Civilians rush back to the smashed homes and re-build as do belligerents for the next wave of attacks. The incentive to actually resolve the problems is never really there. It seems for some, the war is a chance to shore up political support every few months. In some places like Lebanon, the state seems paralyzed to do anything as a nation.

For many Canadians, they will take the relief for now. They will wait till Monday to fill their cars. Some provinces might follow suit. Canada does not control the war. It might be involved somehow in a peace agreement but we seem far off from that scenario yet. The now majority government of Mark Carney will have to move fast to juice the economy and bring affordability to the market. If the world will stop fighting.

Harper Nostalgia from Conservatives

The Conservatives have been have been all mushy nostalgic for Stephen Harper this past week during the Calgary convention to affirm Pierre Poilievre as party leader. It is the Conservative convention so they can mush all the want. However, the Conservatives certainly leave out a lot of stuff when they talk about Harper, not the least of which is how he got thumped by Justin Trudeau for a terrible campaign and based on his record. And thereafter, Trudeau beat the new two Conservative leaders. It was the Liberals themselves who replaced Trudeau and thereafter Carney beat yet another Conservative leader in Pierre Poilievre.

The last time the Conservatives held power was back when Harper was Prime Minister. The National Post are been particularly strong in singing the praises of Harper the past weekend crediting him with a golden era in Canadian governance. They are very strong in condemnation of Trudeau. There is plenty to criticize Trudeau about but on things like military spending, Trudeau's government easily surpassed Harper who had .08% GDP spending even while we were in Afghanistan. Trudeau was at 1.3% and Carney is to bring it to 2% by March and head past that to 5%. Somehow the way the conservative media frames it, Harper was superior. He wasn't but they seek to downplay that. 

In terms of deficits, Harper media supporters say it was the result of the 2008 stock and economy crash. They credit Harper for managing the crisis while saying that Carney had nothing to do with it. I expect if Carney didn't help, Harper would not have offered him the job of Finance minister or be so effusive in praise of his job as Bank of Canada governor. It is all such nonsense. Such obvious digs sound just like they are: blindly partisan.

The seeds of most leaders demise show themselves early. The electorate initially appreciates or tolerates it in the early going. Most voters are are not extremists. They tend to vote for their own reasons. Having said that, the seeds of Harper's demise came from the social conservative side and his desire to end collection of data in some quarters. The cancelling the long form census and gagging government departments from reporting stuff not approved by his office was very concerning. The focus on immigrants and what they wore turned off a number of people as well as associating with the extremist side with the cultural barbaric practices hotline. Holy ICE in Canada! For Trudeau, it was the performative side of things. He went to India and was annoying in his costume and family holiday. Serious trade and security issues needed to be talked about and they were outshone by superficial stuff. Eventually, with high cost of living, the charismatic Trudeau looked destined for a thorough defeat.

Usually the leader are blind to their own weakness. And why would they think that anything other than victory was possible. Both Harper and Trudeau clobbered opposition. Liberals are not nostalgic for Trudeau insofar that they want him back. I personally believed that some of his personal foibles would have resulted in loss of position by almost every other Liberal MP if they had committed them. Still, I approved in general the change in cannabis law, the handling of the pandemic and the free trade agreement in Trump's first term. As for the cost of living and handling the crime and drug addictions, I was like many people not very happy.

It has been interesting to note in recent days that Harper and Chretien were on stage together talking about national unity. It is hard to imagine this in the U.S. right now. In fact, both men mentioned the issue of Donald Trump and how the country should come together. It was fairly funny to but it also emphasizes Poilievre's problem. While he can embrace nostalgia for Harper, he is having a hard time being critical because there are so many Trump supporters in his party, some who even welcome being the 51st state.

Based on the way the Conservatives are acting, it is clear they don't want to pull the trigger on an election right away. If the act with bravado and block things, Carney might be compelled to call a snap election and call their bluff. Minorities don't have long. If no more floor crossers join the Liberals, the election could be in 2026. Poilievre is meeting Carney to discuss the session. It doesn't seem likely he would do that if he was going to vote non-confidence in the next month.

In the mean time, conservative media will continue to say what a grand time a Harper conservative government was and say nothing bad ever happened. The relationship between Canada, the U.S. and China was never as good as some on the right have said. Harper never did get a pipeline in Canada or the U.S. either. Trudeau got the one in Canada completed. Harper kept the worst instincts of the party down until he didn't. 

Carney and Chretien were present this week when Stephen Harper had his portrait unveiled in Ottawa on 20th anniversary since he was in office. Peter McKay was present too. But no Poilievre. It was probably not a thing he wanted to show a non-partisanship appearance at. A missed opportunity to grow his base. However, his base in furious and angry. About everything. They want to control the courts and judges. They want to end bilingualism. Go to zero immigration. They will go to extremism if they see the Conservatives give on these issues.

It is hard to believe that the Harper nostalgia doesn't teach anything new to present day Conservatives. They certainly don't seem to be listening to Harper now.

Carney in the Post Davos World

 

Much has been made of Mark Carney's speech in Davos, Switzerland about the current situation the world sees itself after one year of Donald Trump's return to office. It is interesting to note that is has had a world-wide response and the speech was re-printed in Le Monde and the New York Times. Donald Trump has reacted negatively and disinvited Carney to his Board of Peace. This may be a blessing for Carney. And Trump is escalating. He says he will launch 100% tariffs on Canada for the recent trade deal with China which does not involve sending any goods to the U.S. but a lowering of tariffs to pre-2024.

In Canada, Pierre Poilievre credited Carney with with an excellent speech and then went on for pages after criticizing him and his government. His main argument is that Carney has done nothing and his party has done nothing. This could be posturing for the election leadership review that Poilievre faces in two weeks. Every opportunity to bring down the minority government he has passed on. We'll see if he is ready to take the government down in February.

We don't have as many silos of only right wing or left wing views as the U.S. has. The American-owned National Post just doesn't have the reach nor does right wing radio or podcasting media in Canada have near the influence it does south of the border. Our bookstores have smaller politics section than U.S. ones where every politician or media person has a book out, it seems. Even social media is light on politics in Canada even on X (Twitter), TikTok and YouTube. Most Canadians seem to get their news from a diverse number of sources and stubbornly hug the middle in most things.

Nevertheless, Conrad Black, who received a pardon from Trump, says that Canada and NATO countries have been have been letting the U.S. do all the work. He seems to forget Afghanistan when Canada honoured Article 5 and went to fight. The first four Canadians killed in Afghanistan were killed by "friendly fire" from American forces. A total of 158 Canadian Forces killed along with 6 civilians seem to have been forgotten. Not just by Trump but by Conrad Black. The Super Conservative forgetting all this is appalling as is the soft pedaling of the disgust many Canadians feel about the threats that Black largely ignore. He gaslights us by calling it derangement syndrome.

The election in 2025 very much felt like a vote for stability when Mark Carney was elected. Canadians seemed to have a visceral response to the chaos south of the border. Many are angry at the aggressive bullying from Donald Trump. It has changed travel and shopping patterns and continues to alter them. It seems like whatever conservative media there is clearly is not reading the room at the rage against the U.S. and Trump in Canada. Every time the Conservatives blame Carney, they are likely setting their own prospects back.

The Winnipeg Sun seems to recognize that Trump's criticism of Carney helps the Liberals get their majority. The editorial believes it might be a conspiracy. The truth is a lot of conservatives are not looking for a united Canada. Some want separation. Some want 51st state. Polls consistently say that the majority in every province are against that. Even when Conservatives have power provincially and federally, there has been a separatist minority so blaming Liberals for them doesn't wash.

Pierre Poilievre had said the Liberals under Carney are not doing anything which is not exactly true. The budget passed but other pieces of legislation have been held up in the minority parliament. Parliament seems stalled as so often happens in a minority. The Carney government has announced GST relief that Poilievre says he will support. Since it is a financial measure, a vote down would likely trigger an election which Conservatives don't seem prepared for.

Trump might be miffed with Carney and his ambassador and cabinet are uttering threats and encouraging separation of Alberta. The ambassador seems perplexed why we won't just surrender our industry to the U.S. or why we'd consider them a threat? Not entirely sure some in Trump's team will every get why were not on board with their plans. Ultimately, it could be Carney is waiting for the Supreme Court to weigh in on the tariffs. Based on the questions the Supreme Court had for Trump officials, it seems likely they are worried that it might be an overreach on Congress and their constitutional power. However, given how the administration looks to dump the Second Amendment when it is a anti-Trump rally and shoot a protestor, who knows?

Although Poilievre has been critical of it, Carney has been travelling lots. He will continue to do in 2026 with India and Australia in search of business and security deals. The Europeans just signed a massive trade deal with India this week and Canada may be close to doing so as well. In Australia, Canada is buying a billion dollar defense system to be used in the north to detect intrusions. It is hard to believe that Poilievre would sit at home in some chauvinistic way to appeal to his base rather than making business, security and business deals around the world. His fear of being called a globalist would do harm to Canada.

Poilievre using the same talking points of the last election may not serve him well. The Canadian public has pivoted and it has a lot to do with Trump. And Poilievre still doesn't know how to respond well to Trump because a lot of his base loves the man. As we swing to separation talks in different regions, the fear is that the U.S. will meddle. They already are. And Poilievre can't be seen to lead the conga line for that. 

The Trump people have so many fires to put out that they started and the mid-term elections are happening this year. Time is running out to run on a winning message. The Supreme Court is to weigh in at any time on tariffs any time up till mid-February. This could result in a reversal of Trump tariffs. As it stands now, China has ordered many shiploads of canola at a reduced tariff and should stay within American red line limits. Prime Minister Carney might just have to wait things out till then.

For now we have to put up with Treasury Secretary Bessant and Commerce Secretary Lutnick gaslighting us about how it is Canada that started this fight with drugs crossing the border and our unfair trading practices. A list of Trump officials will have nothing good to say no matter what concessions are made. And Trump himself is likely to take it as weakness to try for a takeover. It isn't just negotiating strategies. After Venezuela, everything has to be looked at as a shakedown.

The Conservatives in Canada have been saying they are not Trump MAGA while re-posting MAGA comments. Liberal support is up mostly at the cost of the NDP and Bloc in the post Davos speech polling. The Conservatives have called it virtue signaling and said if the Liberals are not adopting the the Poilievre plan, they are doing nothing. Given the tax and GST cuts, the Liberals are not exactly doing nothing. And the canola shipments are hard to argue with except if Conservatives are saying they wouldn't sign tariff reduction deals with China.

A number of media outlets have indicated that Carney has a long list of additional travels in 2026, Some Conservatives are critical saying he should be back in Canada in Parliament facing a blocking opposition. This ignores the amount of Team Canada trips that Stephen Harper did that Conservative are extolling now. India and Australia trips are coming up and there are hints that trade agreements are pending. We can't completely replace American trade. It is simply too big and North American is too integrated to not reach a deal. However, we can't act like we are the ones blocking a deal.

It is still likely an election happens this year unless there is another few floor crossers to the Liberals. Minority governments never last long. Until then, Carney will run a government trying to mitigate the chaos in the U.S.

Crossing the Floor - House of Commons

In 2018 Andrew Scheer had no problem with floor crosser when Liberal Leona Allslev joined his party. Now that is Conservatives crossing to the Liberals, you have Conservatives screaming treason and trade offs that are illegal. They're not. Since Confederation, there have been over 300 floor crossings. People elect MPs. If they elect enough of them from one slate, they get official party status and resources from Parliament to do their job. The party that has the most MPs elected gets to attempt to form government, even in a minority situation. This means in a minority, the governing party has to work with MPs across the floor to govern. This includes inducing them to cross the floor to help form a majority.

Justin Trudeau got this when one of his MPs crossed the floor. Scheer crowed about it, said the Liberals were weak and Trudeau should resign. He apparently, didn't see anything wrong with it. As for what it achieved, the election that came soon after resulted in a repeat minority and it was Scheer who had to resign.

It is a but rich to see Andrew Scheer talking about the Liberals meeting with Conservative MPs and calling it anti-Democratic. It is the opposite of that. Some of the media, including people in academia, question the MP how they thwart the choices of people who voted for the party. People elect MPs. Those MPs are expected to vote or act on behalf of all those who live in their riding. That includes people who didn't vote for them or can't yet vote.

Parties can't dictate that people first sit as an independent. It is unenforceable in our system. It also lacks transparency. If a minority government relies on a few MPs to pass their agenda, it is better to know what the trade offs are. In the last government, the NDP and Liberals negotiated to pass an agenda. Unfortunately, for the NDP, it didn't result in seat gain. But it did result them getting things they wanted passed in legislation. It is up to electorate what they want from their MP and who they want. The parties always find this out and trying to force party loyalty on a riding often won't go well.

Conservatives are raw with anger. Perhaps some know that cries of treason are politicking. However, it often seems that some pundits are unware of of how democracy and our system works. Many still can't figure out what Ontario has more MPs than say, Alberta. Perhaps because it has three times the population and also has the biggest economic impact in the country.

It is worth noting that one of the most celebrated leaders in history, Winston Churchill, crossed the floor twice. Many seem to chose to forget that when they list him as a great leader. But then again people choose what they want to choose even when it is contradictory. You would they not get furious when it is pointed out to them. It seems entirely based on whose ox gets gored.

It is very likely that Pierre Poilievre believed that he was going to defeat the Liberals this week and head into an election. Now, he is two MPs short from where he was day earlier. A final budget vote takes place a week from now. It remains to be seen if the bleeding has stopped for the Conservatives. If all the opposition parties vote against the budget, there will indeed be an election and all the hysteria about floor crossing will be mute.

It is interesting to note how rattled Pierre Poilievre was as a result of the two MPs leaving the caucus. He has been acting like he is 30 points ahead in the polls. Perhaps things will be unsettled in Canada till a majority is voted in. It is only then that an opposition party knows that it at least three or four years till the next election and that is a marathon rather than a sprint. If the feeling is that an election is always imminent it seems to encourage dumb behaviour.

As far as social and mainstream media goes, perhaps the angry outbursts is to get clicks or support from the base. Calling people liars in an unsigned document from Conservative party doesn't cut it. Two MPs are gone. They blame the Liberals for this. The big question is whether the Conservatives have enough votes to bring down the government in a confidence vote in a week or whether they even want to do that. 

To be sure Pierre Poilievre has had a bad week. And while the bleeding might have stopped from loss of MPs, it might mean that some MPs are looking to the leadership review in January to demonstrate their displeasure. Raging against unhappy MPs will not go well. Even if floor crossing is shut down, it might not stop people leaving office.

Election 2025?

 The new budget comes November 4 and the final vote on it comes a few weeks after. It is a confidence vote. If all the parties vote against it and there are no abstentions or people absent from the House, it is an automatic election before Christmas. An election is not an idle thing to dismiss. In 1979, the Progressive Conservative government of Joe Clark was defeated six months after being elected in a confidence vote. Pierre Trudeau and the Liberals one again became the government.

While there may be lessons from that time, each elected government has their own unique circumstances. Other countries have regular minority governments but the way Canada's system operates, the results leans more to majorities. However, in recent years Canada has had repeated minorities. The last minority government under Trudeau's Liberals was supported Singh's NDP. It lasted a long time but ultimately hurt the NDP. The Liberals also hurt by a long tenure changed leaders and fears regarding the United States and Trump led to a victory for Carney and another Liberal minority.

We are divided politically but probably less polarized than our neighbours to the south. However, the parties have all boxed themselves in and likely won't take the time to figure out leadership, policy platforms as well as how to build a successful party if elections are a threat every few months. The Conservatives have seen one member cross the floor. Apparently, some are not waiting for the leadership review of Pierre Poilievre. 

A budget where no one is happy is par for the course. The big question is whether it is enough for an election. Some media critics are upset with the budget that it didn't go far enough. Some wanted more spending, some wanted tax breaks and tax reform. Given the minority, it is likely the best budget that could be presented that might get passed.

The one floor crossing of a Conservative to the Liberals means that the Government is two votes short of a majority. Rumours abound about other MPs looking to cross the floor. If two more cross then the Liberals should be in a good position to have three or four years to make their budget work. This might be wishful thinking on the part of the Liberals. The rest of the week will be debate on the budget and the vote will come two weeks from now. At the moment, it looks like an election.

Should Manitoba Liberal Party Change Name?

Manitoba is only one out of two provinces in the west with a party that bears the Liberal name. B.C. changed it's Liberals moniker when Conservatives revived their old brand name. Prior, B.C. Liberals were a mix of Conservatives and Liberals in a right of center party. Saskatchewan also dumped the Liberal name. Only Alberta and Manitoba have Liberal in their name. There are presently no provincial Liberals or their new namesakes elected in provincial politics. The NDP are either government of official opposition in the west.

Federal Liberals are present in the west and are the federal government has been Liberal since 2015. The federal NDP doesn't even have party status presently. This could be a reflection of the fact that our system usually means only two strong parties and very small parties get left behind in the dust. Certainly critics in the west seem to laugh at the provincial Liberals in the west but it could very well be right and left divisions and how our voting system works.

Name changes are not uncommon in Canada. The federal and provincial NDP were once named Commonwealth Cooperative Federation. The federal Conservatives have gone through several name changes but the longest name they had was Progressive Conservatives. Sometimes a name change reflects a change in direction or an alliance. Sometimes it a repackaging to re-freshen the brand.

The Liberals have a new leader in Willard Reaves who at 66 was acclaimed as leaders of the Manitoba Liberals. Acclamation is also not uncommon for political parties in Manitoba. Brian Pallister became leader for the PCs when no one offered to run. He later became premier. While Reaves has run against his fellow Blue Bomber twice in Fort Whyte, it would seem there are no shortage of seats to choose from. The Liberals will likely want to re-claim longtime Liberal strength in River Heights. As vital as Jon Gerrard is, it seems a reach that at 77 he would contemplate another run. Anything is possible but it seems likely that Gerrard helps Reaves in any way possible. It should be noted that Gerrard stood beside Reaves when he announced his candidacy.

Cindy Lamoureux remains the sole Liberal MLA in the Legislature. As a new mom and continuing as a MLA, the leadership was something she passed on. At one point it seemed all four prominent Liberals were interested in the leadership. A kind of exhaustion has set in. Any election is likely two or so years away. A byelection might be closer. Any Liberal leader should expect to be part of a rebuilding process which they may only be able to take so far.

After the last election some have suggested that maybe Manitoba is a one party province. The PCs have certainly dropped to historic lows but having a party win every seat means they only have one place to go: down. With this in mind, the Liberals should not assume the PCs are the only choice for government in waiting. However, if the Liberal name is an impediment to being elected provincially in the west, they should consider a re-branding.

Some say the NDP and the Liberals should unite. Some say the Liberals and PCs should unite. Both suggestions ignore that the Liberals are not tied as closely to unions as the NDP are. As for the PCs, the Liberals are not tied to some of the more social conservative policies. These are not easy differences to paper over. The electoral system in Canada favours two parties and majority results. Electoral reform could help but the two parties where things swing back and forth are not exactly in favour of a system that would dilute their power. National and provincial efforts on electoral reform have stalled.

Research in Europe suggests that party re-brands can help get electoral success. The Saskatchewan Party and the Wildrose parties are an indication of that. The research suggested that just a policy re-brand does not do the trick. For only a brief time in the 1980s has the Manitoba Liberals become Official Opposition and had a chance at government. That is a very long time out of power or as the main contender. In some elections they have had a very compelling policy platform and even run a solid campaign only to see little success. Could a name change help lead the party to more success?

If some of our western provincial counterparts are any example, the answer is yes,

CBC Manitoba Adds Steinbach Bureau

 

Between CBC Manitoba Radio One and CBC Manitoba Television, CBC has a fairly large presence in the news department. Aside from Brandon, CBC Manitoba has a fairly light presence in covering anything outside the perimeter. The radio unit does make regular attempts to send the team to various parts of the province. And the TV unit does cover stories outside Winnipeg but the capital remains the biggest source of news material.

Brandon has had a news reporter based in the city for many years. They have needed one since their affiliation with CKX television in Brandon ended. That brought the station to an end in 2009 and CBC now had no real coverage for the second largest city in the province. A number of correspondents have worked the Brandon bureau. Their assignment is the city of Brandon and rural issues.

For decades some of the biggest advertisers on CBC Manitoba's evening news was ag related commercials. It is less so now. While CBC Radio One's Winnipeg broadcast is number 1 in the ratings, that is not true of the CBC local TV news in recent decades. It was once the top newscast but changes at the anchor desk and consistency at the other stations saw CBC slip to second and then third.

In today's market of cord cutting, as people sign on for streaming services and the like, the audience for local news goes down or appears to be on the decline. Certainly, how media reaches their audiences has changed greatly. When Bell dropped sports radio, it opened up several podcasts for former broadcasters and new entries in this niche. It is fairly shocking how pretty much all the local stations have dropped their sports reporting.

It certainly isn't written in stone that this is the best approach. Looking south to Fargo, North Dakota, we see WDAY use digital options to create a sports channel offshoot of their ABC slot dedicated to high school and university sports in the state. No media comes close to this coverage in Manitoba and North Dakota has a smaller population.

The overall CBC English and French service receives a lot of federal money. However, compared to other industrialized countries, it is below almost everyone except the U.S. The American have even cut their support more but have left the tax credits in place for people who donate to PBS and NPR.

In the last election the Conservatives said they would end CBC funding while the Liberals said they would increase spending. Since the election, Prime Minister Carney has ordered CBC to look for savings but kept the increase promised in election. All government departments have been asked to make cuts so the CBC is among those departments and Crowns. At the billion mark, there is a lot of money in the system. CBC Radio and Radio Canada, the French service punch above their weight class. They are both popular services and in the case of radio, have no advertising taken away from private broadcasters. CBC North can be regarded as an essential service given the lack of any alternatives.

The CBC English TV, with the goal of trying to serve a wider audience, the network decided to hire 30 more journalists in 22 communities. The Prairies would see the most of any region with nine communities having reporters. For Manitoba, the Steinbach/Hanover community the allocation is to be two reporters. The first one has already been hired. The second one will be soon. This will increase the coverage from 48 to 66 stations and bureaus across the country. It is long overdue.

CBC Manitoba is often accused of perimeter-itis. While it has reporters who know the outside of the city, it is not as often reflected in news. It isn't in their remit if they are reporting on city hall or the legislature. It remains to be seen how the new reporters will be utilized from Brandon to Steinbach. The Brandon reporter in recent years seems to have one digital story a week and regular contributions to the broadcast through the week. 

The CBC Manitoba evening news has a new set. The one old overlooked Portage at Spence. 

Brittany Greenslade took over as full time anchor after a period of rotating anchors when Janet Stewart left to take over the noon radio call in show for a year. While there isn't anything wrong with the new set per se, it really doesn't allow for much interaction between anchor and guest. Compared to APTN down the street, it isn't a very active set. National CBC programs have far more interesting sets for discussions which largely seem absent on CBC Manitoba.

I mention the news desk set because with two bureaus outside Winnipeg, it would be interesting at times if the Brandon or Steinbach correspondent could have a segment where they interact with the anchor. There have been occasions when correspondents have interacted in analysis segments. The Kives/Kavanaugh explainers were always interesting. Most of the interactions are now between weather anchor and new anchor. No stations carry sports reporters anymore. It is disappointing because nothing gets reported in Manitoba on high school and university sports. It isn't what happens south of the border. Nor does it happen in Britain. The BBC is full of sports coverage. That will be a discussion for another day.

The most important thing from the posting outside of Winnipeg will be new perspectives from those areas. And so it will go with all of the new bureaus. Will it magically make CBC television news number 1 in the markets it serves? No. There still needs to be a review of what CBC offers Canada. The future for CBC would appear to lie in streaming and they have moved local broadcasts to that format but so far it doesn't seem to coordinated enough to extend this service world-wide like BritBox or Acorn does with British programming.

I expect we will see more reporting from the bureaus across Canada in the fall as they are fully staffed. Given how many parts of the country have lost newspapers and radio stations, it may be the first full time reporter for those communities.

Is Mark Carney a Conservative?

A short note: Blogging had a moment about 15 years ago more or less. It lasted a while and a few are kicking around today in Manitoba. There were some brilliant historians, analysts and humourists at the time and it was thoroughly enjoyable. Some faded into retirement from writing long form thoughts. I like reading long form material. Social media, whether it be TwitterX, Facebook, TikTok or any of the various messenger services lacks detail and history although some can be informative, timely and entertaining. In the last several months social media has become increasingly filled with AI and is an ever growing source of hostility. It is hard to know what is real or true a lot of the time.

Blogging is slow. And in search engines, something that was written years ago can suddenly take off again as people seek out information, history or news. Mainstream media can fulfil this when it is not firewalled. A blog is there so long as the website remains and the author keeps their posts up. 

I have rarely removed any past posts except where links might not be around anymore. I have fixed poor formatting or typos which there are many. In other word, I tend to leave things alone. Prior to the pandemic the views steadily rose till just prior to the pandemic. For a few short months saw 45,000 people a month in viewers, It dropped in the pandemic and has been steadily rising again till this past June it has reached 45,000 people once more. 

Thanks to those readers. I really don't look all that much or try to write anything that is clickbait. I write what interests me. Take pictures of what I see. I don't limit myself to any one topic. So thank you in this short note.

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Some conservative media is back and forth on what to think about Mark Carney. Many conservative voters are still scratching their heads about what happened in the election and are now looking closely at Pierre Poilievre's performance. He is still months away from getting a seat back in the Commons. To that end, he appeared on CBC in a interview this week. It is the first time he has done that as leader. Before he had his list of enemies who were never to be engaged. Once he was to become PM it would be the end of the CBC.

Even conservatives seemed to quail at the raw vitriol. Some in the base loved it and even raged further but others, many of them women, sensed this was an anger that could turn on them. There will be a lot of analysis done of of what happened in the election. The truth is that is that the Liberals chose exactly the right candidate and platform for the moment.

I have said here before the Liberals have both left and right contingents in the party. The Conservatives have driven off the progressives in their party federally. More critically, the Conservatives have driven the NDP to near extinction by appealing to working men in labour while at the same time driving women and those afraid of the right to the Liberals. It is not a recipe for a national win. The wind went out of the sails of the federal campaign when Justin Trudeau stepped and when Mark Carney won the leadership.

To distinguish himself in the campaign, Carney said he was ending the carbon tax on gas. He also said he was raising military spending. Much of this was in response to election of Donald Trump. The Justin Trudeau government showed no intent on changing those policies but the Pierre Poilievre-led opposition couldn't seem to benefit from any of this because every time Trump talked about the 51st state, it shifted voters to the party in power.

Even before this, Liberal members were convinced that a fourth term under Trudeau was unrealistic and that it could lead to the party being wiped out. I'm not sure why Conservatives were surprised Trudeau left. In fact, at times they seemed to suggest that it was somehow illegal for them to change leaders or use proroguing as a strategy. It should have come as no surprise. The Conservatives have used such tactics themselves as they are perfectly legal in our system.

The NDP and the Conservatives often say the Liberals steal their policy platforms. They should be flattered. However, if their policy platforms were completely gold, one would think they would propel said parties to victory. The truth is that some parties still have parts of their policy platform or candidates that don't inspire faith. And while some federal parties might say that electoral reform in needed nationally, they make no attempt to change the system provincially when they are in power.

However, back to Carney. He was elected because he appeared to be the person to best deal with Trump and to steer the Liberals back a bit from cliff they were headed to. This is not to say the Liberals are withdrawing from being progressive. On issues like marriage and abortion, they are not about to head in the opposite direction. The Conservative platform in the election chipped away at those areas of law.

I mention the social issues because women played a huge role in the election outcome. There are conservative women to be sure but the over the top hyper masculine approach was only going to go so far. If women don't trust a leader or the policies as they apply to her and her family, she will vote against that leader and party even if a partner votes the other way. The value of the secret ballot remains a woman's best opportunity for change.

The changes on taxes, carbon and otherwise is a right of center Liberal move. But we are not seeing a cut on daycare, dental and pharmacare changes made under Trudeau. Those are progressive ideas. The NDP have all but been wiped out so there is less influence and chance they want to go straight into another election with no leader. Likewise, the Tories have no leader. And the BQ were badly bruised. The one thing that everyone seems to agree on nationally and provincially is the economy needs to be juiced with everything that is happening in the U.S.

So far many premiers are supportive of Carney and his approach to nation-building programs. Federally, the Conservatives supported the bill to try to speed through projects. First Nations leadership has expressed alarm at speed but with 600 chiefs, some are in support of moving forward. It seems unlikely that Carney would push through a project without consultations or support. 

And to be fair there are many projects with First Nations, Metis and Inuit already on infrastructure, housing and a host of other areas. Expediting those already agreed upon would be a boost to economies across Canada. The federal government has a duty to consult in a meaningful way. It does not give 600 First Nations sweeping vetoes according to legal experts. Carney will be looking to get discussions going. It can't be easy. The chiefs wanted to bring lawyers, experts, elders and others to the talk. Assuming a max of 10 people and six thousand or more, an arena would be needed and probably a few weeks/months of discussions. So far it has been limited to chiefs which is a lot.

It is unclear what sort of legal challenge might be coming but there are a number of chiefs who wish to move forward and if some don't want to proceed, it is likely money will be re-directed elsewhere. However, Carney has negotiated with businesses and governments for years. It seems likely he can navigate the waters.

In recent weeks, more conservative media commentators have considered whether Carney is actually a conservative. Or at the least a progressive conservative. This is not great for the Conservative party because when Liberal have been more conservative, the party was wiped out like with Chretien. If Conservatives veer too far to the right, it will hurt them more than they think. They eventually only beat Paul Martin when the party went left with NDP support and corruption in Quebec.

Carney will find that more progressive conservatives might move to him and the party if he continues a path that appears to looking to the right the ship. Poilievre will find it harder to tap into the visceral hatred of Trudeau in dealing with Carney. And the fear and dislike by Canadians for Trump means they are not interested in hearing how everything is broken over and over.

Chretien and Paul Martin were able to convince a large number of Canadians of their goals while splitting the conservative vote. Now, with the progressive vote not split, the Liberals now are just short of a majority. If they can convince enough Conservatives voters to to change their votes next election, the Conservatives might be looking at being longer in opposition. A lot can happen but already Carney is doing things that a Trudeau government would never do.

The Anger of Conservatives in Manitoba

The Conservatives lost the last federal election and the Progressive Conservatives lost the last provincial election in Manitoba. As far as the federal election goes, the Tories were so certain they were going to, they were figuring out the wallpaper in the prime minister's office. After two years of relentless campaigning they almost saw the Liberals win a majority and their own leader lose his seat.

Polling in Manitoba now shows a majority of Conservatives supporting separation. It is a minority position in the overall poll. Some men are so angry and upset that they are all in on western alienation and separation. It is unclear how that translates into a win with a full referendum. It is worth noting that separation parties in the provincial byelections finished third.

There seem to be a lot of conservatives who embrace the 51st state. Certainly there is anger at the election results and in some cases, those that saw their party lost question the electoral system as fixed against them. And by fixed, the suggestion was that Liberals were changing boundaries and stuffing ballots. No amount of evidence could be presented to convince those that believe that. Thankfully, the actual Conservative party didn't make a call to the battlements over losing both the election and the leader's seat. That didn't mean they were happy.

The Liberals are pretty wily. By changing their leader and proroguing Parliament, they changed the calculus. But some of these tactic the Conservatives had done themselves with success. It think what caught Conservatives by surprise is how fast Liberals changes policy platform. Despite calling it cynical and a lie, it ignores how the Liberals have always had right and left components within the party. It is that right that is in power now.

Men are more likely to be separatist than women. And Alberta and Saskatchewan are more likely to have separatist segments of the population than B.C. or Manitoba. In Manitoba it is likely a rural male who thinks on the line of separation. This closely resembles the rest of the west. Those in the city, especially women, are more likely to be in support of a united Canada.

Polls are often snapshots looking backwards. Many conservatives are still stinging from Trudeau and are still stunned the Liberals won with Carney. The popularity if the Liberals and Carney have steadily risen. Even now though some conservatives are mad about Covid, vaccines, the electoral process on a host of issues social and economic. It is unlikely that some on the right will ever forgive the emergency measures. But then again, there is little sympathy from a lot of Canadians who regarded the convoys as being a threat to health and safety.

Carney appears to be managing the premiers fairly well by being open to projects of national importance. Still, Alberta's default position is to criticize the federal government often as a cover for their own performance. Trudeau authorized a full government pipeline that brought more money into Alberta than before and got no credit for it. Harper had no success getting the pipeline through.

Ontario has 15 million people living in the province. Even with the entire western Canada population included, it is smaller than Ontario. For would be separatists it should be obvious that the population of cities in the west outnumbers all of the rural and northern areas. This is important because a lot of separatists are often saying majority rule is unfair. They don't meant the just eastern Canada but cities over rural areas too.

In Manitoba this often mean rural men are angry at people who live in Winnipeg. Does separation mean separating from Winnipeg? These are legitimate questions. If Canada is divisible, does it not mean provinces are as well? And First Nations can easily say they won't separate. Does that mean the province sends the police in? This easily can lead to a civil war.

As mentioned, this is a snapshot on the past months and the present government is not even a year in. Federal-provincial relations seems to be in a much better place than they were a year ago and nation building projects seem to be a focus. Housing and inflation are also on the priority list. All these things combined are likely to take the steam of the separatist agenda.  As this most recent Canada Day has show, the Canadian flag has been reclaimed by those who want a unified Canada. The majority does not want to break up the country.

Manitoba's One Federal Cabinet Minister 2025

Mark Carney's cabinet is Canada's version of trimmed down. It is 28 full ministers and 10 junior ministers plus the prime minister. The only minister from Manitoba will be Rebecca Chartrand, newly elected in Churchill - Keewatinook Aski. She will be attending her first full cabinet on Sunday.

Most previous cabinets have numbered up to 40 full ministers. The previous Carney government had Terry Duguid as Minister of Environment and Climate. He was dropped from cabinet altogether and Winnipeg has no cabinet representation at the table.  It might be the first time the city has had absolutely no cabinet spot in a government.

In fairness, Chartrand has lived in Winnipeg and will know the city well. However, her cabinet remit of Arctic and Northern Affairs. The western economic development minister is located in Alberta. It means important decisions for Manitoba that the Feds are involved with will be at the behest of a Calgary minister.

There are six elected Liberals in Manitoba. The Carney government has members of parliament in every province so this is reflected in the cabinet. Saskatchewan's solely elected Liberal MP has a junior cabinet spot as Secretary of State for rural development.  Alberta has one full minister. That is three for the entire prairie region. It means Winnipeg, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon will have no representation at the cabinet table. 

In a smaller cabinet, not every city, region or territory will have a seat at the inner cabinet. And if the cabinet numbers 40 people, as it has in the past, does being there give the cabinet member a budget or responsibility to do the job? One effective way to get Manitoba's message across is for the six MPs to meet regularly as a caucus to argue for important matters to Winnipeg and the province.

It is important to remember that while the Liberals MPs are there to represent their riding that they should remember to advocate for the province as a whole. Likewise, is good to work with the province and the municipalities to push through policies and projects important across the board. The competing interests in Canada among the MPs will be tough. 

The new prime minister has said that projects of national unity are critical. It will be important to identify how Manitoba can be part of those projects. It could be that the focus on Churchill and the north could be a boon for the province and Winnipeg itself. Hydro connections to Nunavut, port improvements for imports and exports. Could Churchill be and LNG port? For Winnipeg, it could be moving the CP and BNSF rail lines to Centreport as part of improvements to rail transport. It would open huge areas to housing in parts of the city.

It will be interesting to see what priorities Carney has out the gate and how our one cabinet minister will handle their portfolio. His focus on the economy is a good one as this is where most Canadians seem to worried about the most.

Election Aftermath

Three months ago the result would have been very different. It is likely the Conservatives would have won a supermajority. Now, the Liberals under Carney has come up 24% in the polls and are just shy of a majority. The resignation of Trudeau, the election of Carney as leader of the Liberals, the tariffs of Trump and the 51st state talk and the collapse of the NDP all contributed to this win.

The post election speeches were telling. Poilievre congratulated the new leader and didn't dispute the result despite losing his own seat. Singh, losing his seat as well and party status, announced he would be stepping down. Blanchet lost a third of Bloc seats. He has only had to face criticism from the Quebec government for a poor campaign. Very quickly after the election, Blanchet indicated he won't be bringing the government down any time soon.

As far as Poilievre goes, he has to face his caucus to see if he can retain their support going forward. Since he lost his seat, Parliamentary rules clearly state the Opposition has to pick a leader in the House. This can be an interim leader but it has to be someone who is a MP. It appears Poilievre has called everyone to solidify his support. But his loss means he is out of the Commons for at least a few months and out of the official residence at Stornoway which is only for elected officials.

One thing is clear is that Poilievre won't be in the Commons until the fall unless Parliament has a summer sitting. And they might if Conservatives make a big deal about it. The G7 meeting is in Alberta in July and it is expected that there will several trade missions around the world. July 1 is the self-imposed deadline for a provincial free trade agreement and it looks like the country made finally get one.

The Trump Effect is not just limited to Canada. Australia just elected a a majority Labor government and the opposition Liberal (conservative) party lost, including the leader's seat. Similarly, the opposition leader in Australia had held the seat for 20 years just like Poilievre. This reversal of conservative wins worldwide will be monitored by many.

In Carney's press conference, the need for speed was emphasized. The Trump tariffs are hurting Canada and they are hurting the U.S. as well. Carney will be looking to get tariffs off of Canada in some sort of agreement. Nevertheless, the U.S. could still have a hard economy due to trade pressures around the world. This affects Canada too.

In Trump's first term, Canada tried to stay below the radar and got a trade deal. However, any hope of getting a pipeline through even under Trump's administration has proven to be fruitless. However, there are LNG projects that will come on stream in B.C. that will benefit all of Canada in terms of economic gains. On Friday, Carney met Premier Danielle Smith and she was reasonably satisfied that the discussion was productive.

An Alberta tradition is to bash Ottawa. However, I think she is aware that if she takes it too far, it may involve violence towards the federal government. There is no control if it devolves to that. As in the time of Covid where some Albertans gathered arms and planned an event at the border, the fear is that there will be a move from politics to terrorism. It seems very unlikely Alberta wants to see what happens to districts that vote on separation. It hurt Quebec badly and still places them in jeopardy.

Carney will have a difficult time to navigate the path on the U.S. but the key will be to agree to negotiations. Any growth plan he has for Canada will have to be get free trade in the country moving. Infrastructure will be key. And looking for trade relationships outside of the U.S. As for the rest, I expect Carney will be looking to keep free speech and democracy strong. He is likely to show tolerance but not be the lightning rod that Trudeau was.

In the end, being an adult, focusing on the economy might be enough to forestall and election for a year or more. Trudeau managed to keep his government going till the edge of the cliff. The trick will be to avoid senseless provocative stances and continue to focus on economy. Even environmental work needs to focus on affordability and sensible and measurable improvements in people lives. A national energy grid comes to mind. Electricity, natural gas and the like but also a real push for supports for new windows, doors, insulation and new technologies. And most importantly, housing. This is what hits many people the hardest. Improve on that and some of the other things will feel less terrible.

Poilievre vs Carney and Threat of Western Separation

What a difference a few months and an external factor like Donald Trump can have on electoral fortunes. Pierre Poilievre seemed to be sailing into one of the most massive majorities in Canadian history for the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau was determined to go into the next election until the opposition said they were going to pull the plug at the earliest opportunity. This led to a flurry of Liberals saying they were not going to run again next election. With cabinet holes to fill, he looked to move the Finance minister Chrystia Freeland to some other position to bring in, allegedly, Mark Carney into Finance. 

Freeland's resignation was the moment that Trudeau found there was just not enough support in the caucus to carry on. And Mark Carney, who opted not to jump into a cabinet with a lameduck PM. He just had to wait till a leadership convention was called. A prorogued Parliament and a leadership convention was a re-set from how 2025 began. As interim PM till the leadership was decided, Justin Trudeau probably had the two best best months an outgoing leader could have. Carney became the PM and had streamlined cabinet sworn in. However, support for Liberals had been steadily rising every time Trump imposed or threatened tariffs. By the time Carney became PM the Liberals had pulled numbers not seen in years.

Oddly enough, even though the Conservatives said they were going to bring the government down, they haven't seemed unprepared this far. They have not been able to adjust to the constant changing campaign that Trump's proclamations bring. Carney has not been perfect thus far. Some of his MPs have gotten in trouble. Some he has removed including his own seat and some he stubbornly keeps in place. One recent MP stepped down after he defended him. It is early in campaign and not uncommon for leaders to have a few candidates who don't work out. It remains to be seen whether these incidents hurt Carney. Or Poilievre. Generally, most people don't pay attention to these incidents.

Preston Manning suggests that anything less that a Poilievre majority win is a vote for Alberta separation. This is the same type of blackmail that Quebec has used over the years. Sad that it comes from Manning who has generally been considered to be not be as extreme. It could be that speaking to the volatile male base of the party makes him presume such an outcome. The enormous gender gap in what polls are saying could make for some surprises. Some men are just not opposed to Liberals. They are angrily opposed. However, if that is the case then it can be said women are even more resolutely opposed to Conservatives. 

This is something to keep in mind when voting on separation takes place. What do women think about this? Truly. A landlocked Conservative province separating? Most polls suggest that only a small minority want a 51st state in Alberta. That same percentage is in Quebec in terms of 51st state. The most recent polling on separation from Canada in Alberta stands at about 20. Still a minority view. Manning's 

If Poilievre is having a hard time figuring an angle with Carney, it is the same problem with all the opposition leaders including Blanchet from the BQ. The more Trump fills the airwaves, the more a unity movement grows. For the moment it is in support of Carney since he is the prime minister. And as such, Carney's response generally has the backing of all the premiers. It is enviable position to be in during the election. Usually the caretaker role is less pronounced. However, it can be said that the authority to respond to an emergency overrides this. Looking like a prime minister is what many Canadians are looking for. 

The premier of Alberta flirts with separation but also calls it nonsense. She knows the polls show it to be a possible loser for her. Danielle Smith already has enough problems in the province as she breaks the crockery. And yet Poilievre does little to distance himself. The person he does need help from his Doug Ford from Ontario and yet never seems to ask. Ford has found it easier to deal with Trudeau and Carney.

At this point in the election, it is clear that neither the premier of Alberta or Poilievre are interested in talking about separation of Alberta or Quebec. Even flirting with it is likely to do harm in Ontario. And that is where he need seats. According to polls, the heavily Conservative Alberta has a loathing for any Trudeau Liberals going back 60 years. However, when they've elected two Conservative majorities, they have felt pretty miserable about that too. 

The polls could be the most off we have ever seen in Canadian history given the crowds turning up for Poilievre. However, Winnipeggers know that just because we loved and turned up in numbers for Phantom of the Paradise, it didn't mean it was a blockbuster. 

It is possible that Carney's French might hold him back or that he stumbles badly in upcoming debates but the desire for stability is something the electorate craves. Poilievre has said he will disturb that but he has said everything is broken. That message is tone deaf when the public fears the country will be carved up by external enemies. Many take a dim view that Conservatives may in fact desire that outcome. For this reason, the polls have been reflecting a new dynamic not seen in Canada ever.

Three weeks are left in the campaign and the only thing we can say is that it is volatile out there.

 

Trump Dismisses Pierre Poilievre

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370211707112

Conservatives in Canada are probably in disbelief. Two months ago it looked as if there were going to face Justin Trudeau and go to get a supermajority of seats in Canada. The latest polls suggest the biggest defeat for the Conservatives in decades. It could be there has been a boost as a result of Trudeau's resignation and for the subsequent Liberal leadership race but the real driver of polls in Canada has been Donald Trump.

Tariffs have dominated the discussion and fear has pervaded across Canada. Trudeau in his final weeks probably showed the best leadership with the provinces that anyone had seen in three years. Every insult aimed at Canada and Trudeau saw Liberal support rise. Showing fortitude worked for Dough Ford as well who rode a wave of unity to a third term for the PCs in Ontario.

Pierre Poilievre literally had to change tact of saying everything was wrong with Canada to defending Canada against Trump. His campaign needed to change as soon as Trudeau announced he was stepping down but his party seems to think that they just have to say that the new PM Mark Carney is just like Trudeau. Clearly the polling suggests that voters don't think so.

Trump has dumped on Poilievre for not being MAGA enough just when Canadians are looking for a leader who will not just stand up for Canada. The problem is that there are a lot of Trump supporters in the Conservative party and a fair number who support being 51st state. Poilievre treads a fine line of being critical of Trump tariffs and not making his base unhappy. He wants to keep the focus on the Liberals leaders but Trump comments on Canada every day. The people of Canada have no choice but to focus on Trump because of the tariff issues ands existential threat to Canada. Pussyfooting is not going to cut it.

If Conservatives thought Trump would be the best thing in the world for them and that his success would be success for them, they can't be more shocked than they are now. Some in the media are saying that Trump saying Poilievre is no friend of Trump's is a good thing. The FOX interview with Laura Ingraham tried to steer the conversation to China multiple times but Trump wasn't having it. He full on said he doesn't support Poilievre and said he'd prefer to work with a Liberal.

Canadians are in a mood not seen since World War II. There is a nationalism and determination to face the challenge.  Shopping habits and travel changes borne of betrayal and anger are happening each day. Buying Canadian and travelling to non-U.S. destinations is producing noticeable numbers. Canadian leaders who are not standing up for the country or who sound like Trump could face resistance.

This is matter of great difficulty for Poilievre because he has pocketed phrases by the bushel from Trump and leans heavily on sloganeering. Given the polls, it might not be working. Or conversely worked so well that he had already defeated Trudeau, Singh and all the policies he has singled out over two years. 

But Poilievre can't overcome Trump himself. And as the election has started, it could be very well that he has no time to pivot. It is early on though. It may not matter if the NDP, Green and BQ support collapse and go the Liberals.

Pierre Poilievre Next Prime Minister of Canada?

Double digits poll support over the Liberals, it would seem the Conservatives are in a position to take a historic victory with a majority not seen since Mulroney. His axe the tax stand of removing the carbon tax is resonating with a lot of people. However, he hasn't made clear if he is dropping all the efforts in the area of climate change. For example, will he drop electric car support, geo-thermal, solar or electric power grids in favour of oil and gas. Some of their policies suggest they will sell water and allow resource development in presently protected areas. There doesn't seem to be anywhere to ask questions about if any of this is true. Increasingly, Conservatives are not responding to any media...even those that would seem friendly to it.

It probably isn't necessary. Poll numbers are great, money is coming in and even if the economy improves, it still doesn't change the message. The gas tax cuts will be the first things to go if and when Poilievre is elected. Climate change supports are likely to go next. The only thing that might mitigate that is what happens in the U.S. and the world. If the markets start to really change for oil and gas products, it will not help if Canada is not manufacturing electric vehicles and investing in other technologies. The German government has already said they are committed to energy such as hydrogen. Some Conservatives have attacked her for saying this.

On crime, the statistics are bad over the last ten years with rising numbers. While some numbers are lower, violent crime and property crimes have spiked. It isn't just as federal government problem. It affects provincial and municipal governments as well. The Conservatives say this all began when the Liberals took over as government in 2015. While this is true, it ignores the others levels of government, few of which were Liberal. Police themselves have said there are many factors leading to more violent crime, some of which are are at levels of government below the federal one such as social services, education and housing.

The Liberals though are taking it on the chin mostly from inflation. And even though it has come down to 2%, a lot of people are still carrying a lot of debt and renewing debt on such things as mortgages at higher levels. Bank of Canada rates have come down and are forecast to come down more but people are still hurting. After nearly 10 years, it very hard to win elected office again for the same leader. Nearly impossible. Pierre Trudeau couldn't do it and relied on the Conservatives under Joe Clark not being able to retain confidence. Poilievre is hoping to land a large majority to keep that from happening like it did to Joe Clark.

The government could collapse in October if the Bloc don't get some of their policies pushed through on seniors. They appear to be expensive promises and it is uncertain if the government supports them or believe they are necessary. The Liberals will likely weigh the benefits of supporting this plan, especially if it only buys a few week of confidence. An election could easily be before Christmas.

The Bloc Quebecois could end up being the Official Opposition in this scenario as they were from 1993 to 1996. The difference then was the Liberals were in government and campaigned to keep Quebec in Canada. Would the Conservatives do that or would they push them out the door? There are so many policy issues that largely remain unknown. A vote on the carbon tax is what Poilievre wants to make the election all about but he hasn't indicated much detail on other areas including defence and national unity.

Poilievre has said he will make it a priority about bringing down the cost of housing. This past year thus far has seen housing starts go up 4%. Lower interest rates should help builders with more starts but even with historically low rates a few years back, housing prices were rising. This isn't something the Conservatives can change any more than the Liberals. 

The Conservatives think inflation might go down if they eliminate the gas tax but it could increase spending in other areas which could raise inflation. It certainly did that for housing prices even when the overall rate was 2% inflation. The only thing that will really moderate prices is capacity. We don't enough housing units overall and haven't for many years.

The market is tricky that way. If there is a mad rush and bidding on houses goes crazy, people will not benefit. Supply chain issues, zoning and approvals all take time. Some areas in Toronto and Calgary are saying no to anything except detached housing. This happened when Harper was in power as well with Poilievre in cabinet. Now the Liberals are in power but provinces in Ontario and Alberta have conservatives governments and struggle as well. The truth is that all levels of government are responsible for this.

In some university towns in 2024, there are now rentals available because the federal government has limited students. However, this is now putting pressure on universities because of reduced tuitions. Meanwhile, some businesses won't have skilled people coming out of the university system leaving the job market unfilled. 

Clearly, we need more policy ideas from Poilievre if he is to become prime minister.  If tax cuts are the only thing offered, the possibility of rising deficit is strong. And if service cuts are in the offing, where will they come? In Manitoba, we saw a balanced budget under Pallister but it came at the cost of cutting constructions budgets, not settling contracts and a whole host of other spending throttling that was eventually was going to have to be paid later on. The NDP under Kinew seems reluctant to end some of those tax cuts even as the deficit grows. They will have no choice at some point because borrowing money to pay for tax cuts is just not on.

What a Poilievre government might do aside from cutting taxes, climate investments and the CBC is unclear. And will the social conservatives on the team have sway on abortion, IVF, assisted death and other areas? No one knows. It is possible his government might be as light on legislation as the Republican Congress in the U.S. is. The big difference between the U.S. House of Representative and Canada's Parliament is that a majority in Canada is able to achieve far more with less chance of a veto by the courts and Senate.

As far as foreign affairs goes, it is likely that aid to Ukraine could come into question. Some Conservatives are outright hostile to the assistance and our more supportive of Russia. As far as Israel goes, there are enough evangelicals in the party supporting a war there for biblical reasons. Canada's allies give the country less leeway to not pull weight. Presently, the Liberals are being pressured to get to 2% GDP for defence spending. Poilievre has said he is not committed to spending that much. It is unlikely he will be able to pull that attitude in NATO meetings. 

A sudden election could very well have Pierre Poilievre become prime minister without a clear direction. One possible clue of what is to come is to look at the Doug Ford government in Ontario which defeated the Liberals who had been in power for 15 years. Ford has won two majorities and seems set to win a third majority. Ford, unlike Poilievre, is a populist which propels his agenda. It remains to be seen is Poilievre can get people to like him as much as Ford. Moreover, there tends to be a trend in Canada that provinces often balance out political support. In other words, if Canada goes Conservative, it often results in changes on the provincial level.

Change is important in government. It also allows the opposition to rebuild and focus their role as critics and alternatives. At the moment, it is hard to see what change will be coming, especially with an election possible very soon.

Wab Kinew Leads NDP to Government in 2023 Election

First of all congratulations are in order to Wab Kinew who led his NDP to a victory over the two term Progressive Conservatives. The NDP stuck on message about health care but also on not reversing some Heather Stefanson announced policy changes in the lead up to the election, mostly pertaining to fiscal. On issues such as searching the landfill, they were for it while PCs were against it. 

The complete collapse of the PCs in the election could be attributed to so many conservatives stepping down earlier, the difficulties in generating momentum for a third majority and the policies needed for it. A winning campaign was just not what ended up happening. It kept going more negative and evidence in Canada has shown over the decades that there is not nearly the taste for it here.

Some of the ads featuring past brushes with crime or unsavoury aspects of an NDP candidate probably did as much harm to Tories if not more. After a number of elections already, past behaviour of Wab Kinew has been part of the calculus of how people have voted already. It can be fair to ask to ask about the background of candidates but the electorate are more likely to assess on the most recent years for suitability if they have held office for a while. In other words, the attack on Kinew's background during an election likely drew more cynicism and probably was regarded as a distraction from the policy record of the government over seven years.

The amount of cabinet ministers who went down to defeat and the near defeat of Stefanson in her own riding is likely to have repercussions on the direction of the party.  Future and past leadership candidates are indicating early that they are not interested in the job. Some Tories lost their seats so running again for leadership might mean sitting on the sidelines unless one of their own steps aside for byelection.

In any event, Progressive Conservatives and Liberals will have at least four years of re-building ahead. Traditionally, Manitobans give a new government two terms so new leaders can expect to be in opposition up to 8 years. Certainly Kinew spent years in opposition himself before winning a majority. Such time allows for the leader and party to develop a strategy to win and govern. However, you can just as easily say that the electorate just gets tired of the governing party after two two terms and voters defeat governments rather electing governments. That is not to say the NDP or any new government doesn't have a mandate but it is worth considering how deep the support really is. On other words, a controversial agenda might sink a new government.

Expectations are high based on promises made by Kinew in the election. There may be some wiggle room such as when Gary Doer said the electorate could defeat the government if they did not fulfill their emissions promises. They didn't and Doer didn't take it to a vote but stepped down to let Greg Selinger lead his party to defeat. Voters will likely measure the new government in health outcomes, crime reduction and economic markers. There will be a honeymoon period but not an everlasting fountain of good will.

The instinct to concentrate power in the premier's office will be strong. Kinew has already said that the cabinet will be smaller. This is wise if only for the reason that parceling off responsibilities will dilute cabinet and the effectiveness of ministers. There are a lot of new people coming aboard. Most will have a tough time even knowing how to be a MLA and where the washrooms are in first months. Still, this is no excuse for taking all power and decision-making into the premier's office. 

It would be wise to strengthen the committees of the Legislature which have been extremely limited in recent years. It is one way to assess worthy cabinet appointees sometime later and a better way to suss out issues and sort out policies in a bipartisan format. It is a big mistake to have a caucus of 34 where the majority don't have anything to do.

The NDP and Wab Kinew have some room to maneuver as the other two parties begin a slow rebuild. It will be the public and expectations that will be a challenge even if the opposition in the house is blunted and smaller. It is hard to know what unexpected things can happen such as a deep recession, fire or flood or societal breakdown. It will be important to have competent people in place and a plan. There will be little patience for scandal or sub-standard performance.