Conrad Black Sings Trump's Praises

As the founder of the National Post, Conrad Black gets to prattle on about the man who gave the convicted felon a pardon for crimes committed in the United States. Black would probably laugh at the charges were it not for the prison time he did as a result. Surprising to some, Black was the son of a prominent Winnipeg family and had connections to some of the families associated with the city. The family moved to Montreal where Black was born. Most of his education was in Ontario and Quebec where, when he was not being ejected for things he had done, was either a failure or an exceptional academic. Money was always available to him thorough his family and he bought small newspapers as early as 1966 as investment vehicles. In 1976, everything changed when he and his brother inherited the family fortune upon the death of their father. By 1978, Black was stripping the wealth out of various shareholdings, pension funds and the like to create his media company. On occasion, there was pushback by the courts but companies like Dominion Stores were pillaged.

As the industrial assets were dismantled, Black invested more and more in newspapers in Canada and beyond and eventually his company Hollinger because the third largest in the world with assets such as The Telegraph, Jerusalem Post and the Chicago Sun-Times. It was the U.S. paper that caused him later trouble as it was listed on the stock exchange and that brought scrutiny that he rarely faced before. During this period of growth, Black started up the National Post as news counterpart to his purchase of the Financial Post in 1998.

There was a time that my family subscribed to Free Press, The Sun, the Globe and Mail and yes, the National Post. No Internet meant a lot more reading. And a lot more viewpoints. Back then the National Post was full of columnists and it wasn't the full on political paper it is now with light reporting on news. While the Post may have had lots of resources, it came at the expense of other papers owned by Black. Large cuts at the Calgary Herald left it reeling.

As mentioned, the purchase of the Chicago Sun-Times brought scrutiny from Securities Exchange Commission because outside investors didn't like the non-compete fees Black and his partners took on newspapers sales. This led to civil and criminal charges that eventually led to Hollinger and the entire newspaper empire being dismantled and Black serving time. While some of the charges were dropped, some remained. After serving time, he was to be deported to Canada but had to re-claim his citizenship from the Canadian government after denouncing it to take a Lordship in Britain from Queen Elizabeth for owning the Telegraph.

Black was particularly bitter about Chretien who denied his peerage in Britain as Canadian. He had to take British citizenship and renounce Canadian citizenship to become a lord. This was the path that Roy Thomson had to take when he became a Lord through his ownership of the Times and Sunday Times. His grandson David Thomson is one of the Winnipeg Jets owners and a Canadian citizenship but retains the lordship which is hereditary.

Chretien was not prepared to give Black a pass on being a Canadian Lord when Thomson was not allowed to in the past. Canada was trying to create and support and honours system itself with the Order of Canada. It wasn't a good look for Canada and Jean Chretien was despised by Black for it. None of his court challenges on the subject worked. 

Black has sought out a pardon ever since Trump was elected. He must have thought his time was passed when Biden was elected. However, when Trump got back in, he ingratiated himself, wrote a book about Trump and continues to write favourably. The pardon in 2023 finally allows Black to travel back to the U.S. again.

The regular columns in the National Post have pretty much been all about Trump. He has called Canadian reactions to the man as overwrought. He routinely downplays the incoherence of Trump on policy and ignores unintended consequences. The tariff harm on U.S. farmers is of particular note on both exports and imports. Farmers need Canada's potash and they need China's purchase of soybeans. If the policy is to gain something from Canada and China, it doesn't seem obvious.

In his most recent column on April 3, Black suggests Trump has Iran right when he wants them and this will also bring China and Russia to heel. To do this he has suggested that Trump will destroy Iran's power grid. 

"This can only mean that he will, if necessary use amphibious or airborne forces to take over the distribution of Iran’s oil, while destroying its power grid and closing its ports as tightly as its airspace."

Destroying civilian infrastructure is a war crime in case Black has forgotten. It isn't a weapons site. 

"A reduced number of tankers is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and there are clearly back-channel communications between the Americans..."

There have been ships moving that have been approved by Iran and supposedly paying a fee to travel inside an island close to the country. This is likely to bring quite a lot of cash to Iran. The communications that Black says must be going on are not self evident.

"Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, are all being detached from their Russo-Chinese sponsors. The United States is about to take over as much as half of Chinese sources for oil and will be substantially replaced by Russia while Western Europe becomes predominantly dependent upon America and its clients for oil and gas and ceases to finance the Russian aggression in Ukraine with oil and gas purchases from Russia while beseeching America to do the heavy lifting in preventing the Russian takeover of Ukraine."

I'm not sure what information Black has to make this conclusion. If he tried to publish this comment in the Wall Street Journal or the Telegraph, the editors would tell him he was speculating to the point of wish fulfilment. 

"With the return of President Trump, the U.S. led discussions that produced a delicate ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages, and Israel eliminated approximately 80 per cent of the Hamas trigger pullers. It remains to disarm Hamas and to reconstruct Gaza."

Black seems to forget that Trump has supported removing all Palestinians from Gaza, presumably to Somaliland. Black also doesn't take into account how October 7 was a catastrophic failure of Netanyahu on military preparedness and an intelligence failure in protecting Israelis. Their policy of "mowing the grass" was one of just periodically attacking Gaza while expanding settlements in the West Bank. In Netanyahu's cabinet, expansionist cabinet ministers look to Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iraq for their next targets. Netanyahu has been talking nuclear weapons are two weeks away from completion in Iran since 1996.

"In one long lifetime, the remarkable American presidents Roosevelt, Truman, Nixon, Reagan, and Trump will have transformed the war-ravaged world of Hitler and Stalin into comparative peace and prosperity."

Black would have a hard time getting his opinion published in any American, British or Australian paper with this conclusion. The National Post, American owned, seems to be a cheerleader paper too much of the time, full of grievance and as delusional as some of the so-called leftist media they criticize.

The American public never wanted this war and their reactions reflect that. Congress has given Trump the rope to go forward but the time to conclude this so that the economic impact doesn't hit right when the mid-terms are in November is being overly hopeful. It could be that in January Trump himself might be in retreat and seeking a pardon.

Conrad Black has always been a observer of history but increasingly, he is becoming yesterday's man. It is unlikely young conservatives are looking to him for direction for the future.

How to Survive the War

Parliament in Canada returns this week and the economic situation as a result of the war in Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Iraq, Syria, UAE, Qatar and elsewhere doesn't look to end soon. And even if it things were to end immediately, there has been enough of a disruption that it will take some time to get prices down to pre-war levels and security overall doesn't seem to be seriously in the cards.

Even if the United States backed out, Israel and Iran might continue to trade fire. And Israel also has Lebanon its Hezbollah front they are engaged in. Trump is deploying Navy, Air Force, Marines and Army assets even as he talks about some kind of deal. He did this in the earlier assault as well when saying a deal was imminent. Given the stock manipulations, it is possible this is just a way for some to extract billions on the market. No one will be held accountable for this.

The most recent call-up is for 3,000 Airborne troops. The debate among MAGA is the most ferocious between those are are super pro-Israel and those are not. Even for this supporting Israel's right to exist are not comfortable with a potential war with Iran. At the moment, Republicans are staying away from that term but eventually the public will make them pay if there is no support writ large for action.

In Canada, higher oil prices will mean higher royalties in oil producing provinces. Alberta and Saskatchewan may see their deficits end. Industrial provinces like Ontario might suffer with higher energy prices. However, it may also drive a movement in the U.S. to sign a free trade agreement, especially if there is a recession south of the border as a result of chaos from the war. The stock market keeps thinking Trump will chicken out at some point on Iran but he may have stirred the pot too much for it to cool down right away.

Israel's Prime Minister does not want the war to end. Netanyahu wants to occupy southern Lebanon as they once did from 1982 to 2000. Most Israelis tired of the endless stream of deaths of Israeli Defence Forces there. However, there have always been elements of Israeli religion and politics that has pushed for a larger Israel. The religious Republican Mike Huckabee who is the U.S. Ambassador has plainly said he supports a greater Israel that includes large portions of Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and further afield. Israeli cabinet ministers have suggested that even Turkey is a threat that needs to be dealt with. It is unhinged.

There has been a lot of talk about Israel directing U.S. policy in the region. Netanyahu has wanted America to crush Iran, even occupy it. And all the while this is going on, Netanyahu says a war is not right time to change the draft rules for Orthodox Jews. This must be frustrating to those Israeli forces who actually do the fighting. Some of citizens of both Israel and the U.S. believe the wars are distractions from other political issues that could put Trump and Netanyahu in legal troubles.

Canadian military forces in various areas of the Middle East that are facing aerial attacks have been moved back. The Strait of Hormuz supplies only a small part of energy needs of North America. However, oil prices are world prices so the supply lost in the choke point of the Persian Gulf means even Canada can't shelter from the price jolt. In Winnipeg, gas has risen to $172.9. The result is impacting energy process across the board as airlines jack rates up 20%. 

Sadly, the decline in inflation in February (much from gas prices dropping) have all but disappeared. The Bank of Canada will have some big decisions on interest rates. Raising them could result in a deep recession. Lowering them could raise inflation higher. Keeping them the same might do nothing. A world-wide recession and high oil prices hit everyone.

All the Carney moves on expanding trade are going to be needed as oil prices may be higher than the beginning of the year just because of damage already to oil infrastructure. And that is if the war ends this week. Going into two months and there will be real downturns everywhere as well as rationing and outright power outages. It is impossible to read anything from Trump's proclamations. Netanyahu is pretty much begging him to go to a ground war and occupation of Iran. He knows that if the U.S. shuts down aggression, he will not be able to continue attacks against Iran. And support for his push into Lebanon might be squelched.

So how do the rest of us survive all this? Well, there is no escape from high gas prices. The bigger your vehicle, the bigger your commute, the more you feel it. The stock market is also where people feel it as it is mostly down. For those who depend on the markets for pension income, it can be nerve wracking. If gas is high, diesel is worse which means trucking and rail is highly affected and price increases will be passed on to all consumers on everything shipped. Already air travel is seeing energy fees being applied. This spring break travel might be the last big travel period before we see people seriously consider not travelling by car or by air if it is too expensive. In Winnipeg, young people will be free on Transit as of July 1. It will be a huge cost savings.

Cost of living has been an issue even before this crisis but now we appear to seem to have to worry about stagflation, inflation and stagnant economy. The Carney government is headed into year two and has been trying to diversify the economy. They have managed to get agriculture goods moving again to China and energy to India. It has been tough because each negotiation comes with pros and cons. Some critics say we should not be trading with India and China because of human rights and foreign interference. Some critics don't even want us to have a trade relationship with Europe. It leads to some impossible standards to upkeep.  The point is the government needs to proceed with caution. Based on the world situation, we can't be overly reliant on any one country. And that is what we have been doing with the U.S.

On a personal level, people in Winnipeg really need to look for gas cheaper than the other guy. While some people complain about prices, they often shop at Shell and pay the highest price. Ditto for groceries. Looks for best prices to try and get some competition even with the supply issues. If there was ever a reason to to shop around, it is now. Canadians have already shown they will change their purchasing and travel decisions when it comes to the U.S. so they will have to do that at home to seek out best prices. It may be the best year to do a vegetable garden or insulate those house.

Large regional wars and conflicts in the past have resulted in rationing and some countries are already doing that with rotating blackouts and curfews. Canada has enough energy supply to not see that but that doesn't mean it won't get expensive with the world price. Some airlines are reporting they may go bankrupt. Some will shut down flights even for areas not affected by the conflict. It is hard to see how this will hit Canada.

If inflation does rise, this is where it will really hurt. Even an end to the war now will take some time to settle. Inflation could be around all year. The federal banks will have to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Housing prices might sink fast causing both positive and negative impacts. Housing prices need to come down but the suddenness of it might have people just leaving keys in the mailbox.

So the question is: How do we survive a war we didn't start, are largely not involved in but have world implications? Very carefully. If things get bad, expect that Canada begins a program to support the Canadian economy, avoid being part of the problem of aggression but possibly a solution for trying to deescalate. What that will be is hard to say. It just doesn't seem like this will end quickly.

Hanukah and Bondi Beach Australia Attack

Bondi Beach is the legendary suburban beach near Sydney, Australia. Often called the lucky country because of the people, the climate, geography and any other number of items make the country seem wonderful. Australians themselves will tell you it isn't perfect. The country is a democracy that has engaged in dialogue and achieved a measure of peace and prosperity. There have been some violent gun incidents in the past including 1996 in Tasmania where Australia suffered one of the biggest mass shootings in world history. The response was a firearms crackdown unprecedented in the country's history. Such was the horror that it changed the country on how to stop such things from happening.

It is with this in mind, it is completely shocking how two men could acquire long guns to attack Jewish people on the first day of Hanukah on Australia's most famous beach. It appears there are 15 victims of the two shooters. There may have been more if not for a bystander who ran from some distance to disarm one of the men.

There has been a rise of antisemitism following the October terrorist attack is Israel and the two year hostage ordeal and military response. There still a lot not known about the shooters but police in Australia are saying it was a targeted incident. It is Australian summer and Sunday would have have seen many enjoying the outdoors and the Hanukah event. Gatherings of the Jewish community are sometimes last minute details for security reasons. However, it seems the suspects knew exactly where to find the celebration.

World leaders have condemned the attack against Jewish people in Australia. Israel leader Netanyahu has pointed blamed Australia for the attack for not doing enough on anti-Semitism. It seems a little early for recriminations. Netanyahu is likely referring to responses to Gaza by the world. He is careful not to criticize the U.S. but has plenty to say on pretty much every other country. 

To be clear anti-Semitism is unacceptable at any time. We have seen evidence of it in Canada where Gaza protestors seem to conflate all Jewish people as being responsible for events overseas. It has resulted in some awful encounters. Still, I believe, at least for Manitoba, we have not reached the point that Australia has. Whether that is luck or general culture of the people, it is hard to say.

Anti-Semitism has been in Canada a long time. There has been an increase and now all of is linked to October 7 attack in Israel. Some statistic, even according to Israeli media, are not sourced. However, where they are sourced, indicate the rise. Unlike Australia, the U.S. and France, we haven't had a catastrophic attack and I hope we never do.

There are 400,000 Jews in Canada, the fourth largest grouping in the world. It hasn't always been easy. Some of it was downright awful. However, I suspect many would agree that things had been remarkably peaceable in the last decades. The election of Carney has brought fear he will allow Jews and Israel to be vulnerable. The conditional recognition of a Palestinian state is not an invitation for attack on Jews or Israelis. That's in Canada or elsewhere.

Australia will be go through a full mourning and reflection. They have this before when they had one of the most terrible spree shooting in history in Tasmania. It resulted in one of the strongest responses ever seen in a democratic society of guns and safety. It is obvious there were some loopholes left that will be looked at. Still, even if guns were not involved, the suspects also had explosives and could have used knives. The point is that an investigation will need to uncover if there were warnings that these suspects gave to indicate a threat. This could be communications, assistance or encouragement from other or a foreign actors.

In Canada, Carney has not got one piece of legislation approved except the budget. There are criminal code measures and other items awaiting support but they appear blocked with every party playing brinkmanship. One more floor crossing and there will be no election for four years. It will be up to the federal government then to ensure there are no attacks like the one we saw in Australia.

Bus Driver Protection

The bus drivers union has been begging for better shield protection for over ten years. The half shield has resulted in some passengers reaching in to the wheel to grab in their attack on drivers. The most recent CBC investigation of violence on buses has shown a significant rise across Canada. Not just drivers are in danger but passengers as well. No other city in Canada has seen a higher rise of violence on buses since 2015.

Winnipeg Police have been aboard buses in recent weeks and have made arrests. Transit supervisors have been trying to make a difference on fare jumping. It has been an ongoing battle. Add to that the destruction of bus shelters or the taking over of them as encampments and the entire experience of travelling on bus has been more unpleasant or downright dangerous.

The driver shortage seems very linked to the lack of safety they feel. Improving the service means having enough drivers. Safety and wages will help. So many drivers are five years from retiring. This is probably true of every public service in the city. Police are close to hundreds of cop taking retirement. The big question is even if wages are attractive, will the jobs still go wanting?

The full shield for drivers seems the best solution for driver safety. The issue of passenger safety is still just as much a priority. The shield still has to allow the driver to view passengers coming aboard for safety. No sense blocking the view of the doors just to run someone over. Thanks for nothing.

Despite security cameras on buses, there seems to be a defiance that any consequences will result from being violent.  Or in some case, mental health or addiction issues means some people just have no impulse control. Protecting the drivers can't mean screening them from seeing people being attacked in their own buses. 

The bus shelters themselves are getting shatter proof glass. It has taken a while to fill the orders. So many were wiped out by people. It is unclear if it was by those using the shelters for homes or by people trying to prevent them from being homes. Or maybe it was out and out vandalism to break things. No one was ever arrested for the many shelters smashed.

If Winnipeg was Sim City, the entire urban area would be on fire with police and fire tracks running all around. It is difficult to know where to respond to next. However, targets have to be picked. When liquor stores were being robbed the province opted for locked doors, ID and security guards. The program worked and they are mostly secure for employees and customers. It is now cannabis stores that are looking to up their security with some violent robberies becoming more frequent.

It is sad security has to be such a priority but car locks, house locks, bikes locks and the like have been around forever. Personal security has become one of the biggest issues. The full shield at least allows drivers of buses to have a measure of safety. As for the passengers, they can't be potential victims of violence because they take the bus or are waiting for one. Security and police have been promised and in some cases have been present but it will take some time to show perpetrators that fare jumping and bad behaviour aboard the buses will be dealt with. And once that happens, customers will feel more secure.

Controlled access to buses, stores, offices and shops is basic security nowadays. Keeping workers safe in their workplace is key. As for bus stops, they can't become shelters or traps for someone to be assaulted. They have to cameras and regular checks by Transit and police.

There is no doubt that mental health and addictions are contributing to violence when combined with poverty and homelessness. This doesn't mean the public transit attacks, robberies and the like are acceptable. And if encampments are not ever accepted on school grounds, why should a bus shelter be acceptable? Sympathy is fine but not at the expense of public security. Shelters with wrap-around supports are necessary for those with mental health needs. And for those who have addictions issues, the wait for treatment can't be a prolonged one. We need places more promptly. As for those who don't seek or accept treatment, the crimes committed to support their addictions can't be brushed away. 

The police have had a very successful fall for arrests for prolific arsonists, shoplifters and for incidents aboard buses. This must be maintained because repeat offenders will not be stopped any other way. However, things like bus driver protection and fare enforcement buses are the city's responsibility as are safety features for bus shelters. Security cameras have been shown to be effective in helping to prevent theft and vandalism but have been shown in studies not to be helpful in preventing violence. In Britain, terrorists knew the cameras would not stop them from an attack. However, they were used to track the terrorists. This should be a good reminder about cameras on buses. They might not an attack but they can who did it.

The city should go ahead with the shields and with other real time safety features. However, for every safety feature, there will be workarounds for those with ill intent. When buses were hit by bombs in Israel, they had security before people got on the bus. Then bombs and attacks happened to those lined up for the bus. The point is that safety is not just one thing you do, it is something that you build piece by piece. Sometimes it means preventing violence from happening by getting to understand who the people committing the acts are.

There is no doubt if the city can't get a handle on transit in terms of safety, routes and convenience, they will see it collapse and find that no amount of road building will help them solve the time and logistics of travel. It is time to fix the problem.

Gaza Starvation

It is 21 months since the Hamas attacks in Israel. Israel had a right to defend itself and free hostages brought to Gaza. It is fair to say that Gaza is not the same as it was prior to the October 7 attacks. There appears to be no end to the conflict. Israel says Hamas must release the hostages and they should. The U.S. and Israel have taken over food aid and according to Israeli media, it is not enough to sustain two million people in the territory.

Mark Carney has condemned the trickle of aid and Israel and its supporters blame Hamas. B'nai Brith and the Centre for Jewish and Israel Affairs has accused Carney of antisemitism and blame Hamas. This won't cut it if the pace of starvation continues to rise exponentially. The "kettling" approach to Gaza is making things worse and nothing going in or out is resulting in suffering with no discernible gains. 

The Israeli military and Netanyahu say there is no starvation but interviews with a Canadian doctor on the ground indicates he and his staff are starving and his patients are doing worse and some are dying. Israel's own record of food into the territory is not supportive of the narrative that there is plenty. Hamas might be terrible and blocking aid but it is Israel's national security minister that is calling for all aid to be cut off. It is Israel's policy that everything is being squeezed. Is this is the policy of the B'nai Brith and CJIA? Is it anti-Semitic to say that hunger appears to be a weapon?

Canada has declared Hamas a terrorist organization and defends the right of Israel to defend itself. However, that doesn't mean criticism of Israeli policy is antisemitism. If it is then Trump hates Jews for wanting the war to end. Defenders of Israel should take note that the prime minister Netanyahu has as much opposition to how he is carrying out the war as he has support  with Israel itself. Israel is very much divided on the man and an election is coming. Are the B'nai Brith and CJIA taking a political position of support for Netanyahu?

The Canadian government does not support terrorism and supports Israel. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz says that even Holocaust survivors who are critics of what is happening in the war putrid. However, the term is weaponized against anyone critical of Netanyahu policy. The fact that some Jewish organizations are looking for uncritical support of what is happening and naming Carney as anti-Semitic is likely not even supported by the majority of their own Jewish membership.

The fact that Israel is backing off shows they need international legitimacy to continue with the support that was fulsome 21 months ago. Even the Conservative Jerusalem Post has said Israel had to act. Calling all of it a hoax and a Hamas creation is not working. Even if Hamas is making propaganda up, they are not a rational actor and are prepared to hurt their own people by pushing them towards Israeli gunfire. Israel now knows this to be true so ramping up military incursions while cutting aid only makes Hamas take a harder line. They. Don't. Care. They will make their people die to serve their cause.

This bears repeating: Hamas is prepared for all 2 million Palestinians to die in the conflict. Israel should not fall into the trap of killing them all. Netanyahu needs to focus on getting the hostages back. Even Israelis are going to tire of the constant deployment and loss of their soldiers with zero results. If the war is to keep Netanyahu in power, it could come at a cost of Israel's support even from the United States. Trump won't be around in 3 1/2 years. Who can say a new President will be anywhere near as supportive?

As for Jewish groups supportive of Israel, stop throwing anti-Semitic labels around including at members of your own faith. It is 21 months since the attack. Rage against Hamas all you want but they are prepared to kill all their people. Don't be the hands that does it. Figure out how to end this. 

One Year Anniversary of October 7 Attack

It is hard to believe it has been a year since the terrorist attack on October 7 on Israeli communities just outside Gaza. The raids and kidnappings by Hamas has led to an ongoing military conflict involving a number of groups supported by Iran.  Above is a picture of Israelis troop in Gaza from IDF.

Saturday, October 7 in 2023 was a religious holiday in Israel so it was quiet. Festivals and faithful gatherings were taking place and it was a relaxed day. The brutality that followed from the attack by Hamas forces out of Gaza is hard to hear and yet some people have tried to deny how bad it was or to justify it. It was rape and murder on a scale that is sickening.

Despite the feeling that Netanyahu was responsible for the military and intelligence failure that led to to the attack, there was and is support for the attacks on Hamas as well as Hezbollah leadership. Responding to Houthi and Iranian attack also has support. 

However, there are also tens of thousand in Israel seeking the end of Netanyahu's leadership over the failure to get hostages back, the lack of preparedness for the attack and for a whole host of other issues from settlements to antidemocratic changes in Israel. I have written about how polarizing Benjamin Netanyahu is in Israel.

As a democratic state, Israelis are very active in the political system and a election will turn on the future of the state. In terms of the war, a hardened position has emerged as the details of the savagery of October 7 remains as an open wound in Israel. But people are also tired of the war and the more soldiers that die fighting it will test the resolve of the government. A total military victory is unlikely in getting all the hostages back. This has been an issue in past conflicts and negotiation has been the only thing to resolve it. Back in 2006, Hezbollah seemed shocked of the Israeli response in their attack in Lebanon. They are likely feeling the same way now as leader after leader is targeted.

In Gaza, Hamas is only focused on eliminating Jews from the territory and creating a religious state where all other religions are driven out. This is in their manifesto. It does not recognize Israel and neither do its's supporters in Gaza and other parts of the world. Moreover, their charter looks to spread Muslim faith worldwide under sharia law. It should be noted that the goals of Hamas are not shared by all Palestinians. However, there is really no one in Gaza to challenge them.

October 7 is called Israel's September 11. It is gut wrenching and emotional. For Jews in Canada it has been a tough time as they and their businesses are targets of antisemitism whether they have a connection to Israel or not. The bomb threats and and other attacks have risen sharply.

For Palestinians, Lebanese and other supporters in Canada, their rage is red hot as many often have family back in the conflict areas. Not surprisingly, some believe Israel is an illegitimate state and all Jews should leave as they are colonizers. Many don't believe in a two state solution. This doesn't give much room for negotiation. The dismissal of the October 7 attack and hostages largely doesn't get answered. 

So long as Hamas exists, it seems unlikely any solutions will have any permanence. Supporters who believe they can drive the Jews out and nothing seems to the dissuade them from this idea. As for Israelis, an extreme group of the religious right seem to think they have a greater Israel and look to push Palestinians out of West Bank. 

Canada supports a two state solution. Extremists want their side to eliminate the other. At some point, Israel will declare the war over and try to get their hostages back. A retaliation against Iranian missiles but set ups renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel. If Iran becomes nuclear in short order, it is possible a nuclear exchange could result. It is crazy and it is possibly why Netanyahu is trying to goad the U.S and allies to go to war against Iran. It won't happen. The U.S. is too burned by Afghanistan and Iraq to gear up for an invasion of Iran.

It seemed impossible that it is a year and fighting is still be happening. But hostages are still being held by Hamas. A ceasefire will come but not so that attacks can resume on Israel. And Israel won't tolerate years of hostages being held. 

For Canada, the government needs to ensure anti-Semitism is not allowed to threaten people, synagogues and businesses. There is anti-Muslim sentiment out there too but attacking Jews seems to be just too tempting for some people. Canada has been a refuge for people since the beginning. It cannot be where people wage war on one another for things that happen elsewhere.  In the end, Canada will stick with its two state solution and will push for some sort of negotiation. But no one should lose sight of the fact a terrorist attack took place and hostages are being held. As long as some people dismiss this, it does nothing to resolve things.

Benjamin Netanyahu

The man is a survivor in Israeli politics. However, things inside and outside of Israel could not be more dire. He has sold many on his commitment to keep Israel safe but the October 7 attack was a huge failure of military and civilian intelligence. His War Coalition is falling apart and even though there is joy at some hostages freed, there are tens of thousands protesting his handling of the conflict.

The divisiveness of his rule as of late as been suggested contributed to intelligence reports that Hamas and others looked at it as something to exploit. And they did. Israel's reaction was entirely predictable because they did the same thing when an Israeli soldier was kidnapped by Hezbollah years ago. The country had a collective rage and it was inflicted on southern Lebanon. It was not easy to extract themselves from that and it won't be easy to extract themselves from Gaza now.

No past leader in Israel has survived politically following such an attack. Netanyahu was already facing some of the fiercest protests and opposition seen in Israel. Courtroom battles have marked his tenure and he sought to weaken the courts in return. His far right coalition is seeking to keep Ultra-Orthodox Jews from serving in the military which angers other Israelis as deaths climb to 600 soldiers.

Netanyahu has lost in the past but always seems to come back. But he always came back with a promise of Israeli security. In light of what happened and his strategy with Hamas and Fatah and dividing Palestinians, he might try to blame others for the attack but it was on his watch. It was his policy and it was his failure. An election is coming and the electorate is highly motivated.

One thing is clear about Netanyahu over the many years is that he is against a two state solution. He has stated over and over he believes that Israel should annex West Bank and this is possibly the plan for Gaza as well. Does it solve Israel's security crisis? Not really unless it is about pushing Palestinians out of the region. Not as easy feat for just under 6 million Palestinians in the area. In short, it's a mess.

Hamas is an extremist group and a terrorist organization. Netanyahu's goal of destroying them all seems as far off as when the U.S. thought it could defeat the Viet Cong. If it was easily done, it would have happened already. Israel has a right to defend itself but if Netanyahu thought a weakened Hamas was not a serious threat and all he had to was bombard them occasionally, he was seriously mistaken. The fact that Hamas is prepared to sacrifice their own civilians in huge numbers and hide among them is a huge problem. Occupying Gaza and continuing building settlements in the West Bank is escalating the conflict.

The push on annexation and settlements is Netanyahu's goal and has been for as long as he has been in politics. His support in Israel has come from the promise that this brings security. It is an argument that even some of his allies have a hard time making after the attack. His enemies believe he is drawing out the war to cling to power. One of the likely reasons his war cabinet is breaking up is that there doesn't seem to be an end phase to it. Defeat of Hamas hasn't been defined nor what Gaza looks like afterward which is what the cabinet needs to hear. It was what the U.S. and the world needs to hear too.

It might be Netanyahu's wish to draw out the war in the hopes the there is a change of President back to Trump. It is that change that he figures he might get to agenda with U.S. backing. He probably doesn't have that time though. Israel is a democracy and an election is coming sooner than that. It won't be the first time Netanyahu has lost if he does end up losing. He has been in exile before but it may be harder for him to argue that his way of dealing with Hamas makes Israel more secure.

And there's rub. Netanyahu has come back so many times promising better security than the other options. It just doesn't seem to have the full sway of past statements. At some point Israelis themselves will push hard to end things, especially if hostages or more Israeli soldiers end up dead. The west is pushing a ceasefire agreement. Not to do Hamas any favours but because Netanyahu doesn't have a plan for what comes next because the plan is to continue for months and into next year. It won't be satisfactory to anyone, especially families of hostages,

The best hope is a democratic Israel pushes to put it to a vote and make what comes next an election issue. It will be messy but should bring clarity. Nothing about the conflict is easy. Protest in North America and around the world that seek to lay the blame solely at Israel's and how it has nothing to do with Jews except that they should be not be in the region, should be taken for what they really are. And that is an eradication plan. 

The main force for finding a solution will come from Israel. Hamas has shown they are committed to sacrificing their people but Netanyahu's way of dealing with them has failed. A generational change is likely. It is hard to see what the outcome will be but Israelis themselves are exhausted from failed strategies and conflict. A continuation of Netanyahu ensures that strategy stays. He has said so himself.

Valedictorian Speech Calls for Ceasefire

Doctor Gem Newman seen in the above picture was chosen to be the Valedictorian address for the medical students at the University of Manitoba. In his speech he decries settler colonialism in Canada and around the world and calls for a ceasefire while identifying Israel as targeting hospitals in Gaza.

https://www.tiktok.com/@ajohn095/video/7370362916882631978

I have not the entire speech but don't no if he criticized the October 6 attack on Israel by Hamas forces. He only mentions Palestinian deaths which the Hamas health authority has provided. Around 1,200 Israelis were killed by terrorists and 250 were injured in the attack that day.

Free Speech is the hallmark of academic freedom and this goes for the administration as well. Dr. Peter Nickerson, dean of medicine expressed his disappointment in the address. He was uninvited by some university groups to graduation events. In turn, one of the major donors of the university expressed his dismay at the speech. His family name happens to be on the building. Ernest Rady says he is appalled and calls the speech hate speech. The word genocidal has disappointed many.

I previously wrote that campuses in Canada have been fairly quiet in comparison to U.S. universities. There have been encampments at both University of Winnipeg and University of Manitoba but students have, by and large, finished school and only graduation ceremonies are left so it is quiet there. The weather has been cold and rainy much of the time which is not fun in a tent. And probably less motivating when no one is there at the campus. Events are coming in the next several days and it remains to be seen whether some students will try to disrupt activities. 

I'm not entirely sure what Dr. Newman's view of the state of Israel is. Since he uses the work colonial and settler, it feels like he is stating Israel is an illegal state with no status. This is certainly the viewpoint of some of the Palestinian supporters who believe that the solution to all the problems is for Israel to cease as a state and all Jews forced out. The River to Sea chants is a call to push Jews into the sea.

Canada favours a two state solution which is the official policy of the government. Hamas does not favour this and has been fighting other Palestinian groups as well as Israel ever since. They favour a Muslim state and a trans-national one at that. Most of the protestors don't seem to want to bring this to the attention of anyone.

The call for a ceasefire seems to apply only to Israel. Attacks from Hamas seem to be condoned. Many in Israel want to have a ceasefire but we hardly hear about hostage returns or cessation of of violence from Hamas. It is very one sided. We never hear about the rape and violence committed against Israelis or if we do, are told they had it coming.

A Valedictorian speech doesn't have to be a boring thing filled with platitudes but calling out genocide is very much likely to bring the fight out in people. The International Criminal Court is trying to make a case for arrests of Israeli and Hamas leader and it remains very much an open question whether the three judge panel is going to make an equivalency argument. The prosecutor has already said Israel has a right to defend itself.

Benjamin Netanyahu has done a poor job on military intelligence and defence and the Gaza hunt for Hamas has been less helpful at hostage recovery than the short ceasefire and exchange for Palestinians for hostages. The areas that were taken by Israeli Defence Forces have still seen rocket attacks launched. It makes the statement that Hamas can be totally defeated seem less likely. On the home front, some of Netanyahu's coalition is pushing for Jewish settlements to return to Gaza and to get Palestinians to leave. Even the prime minister seems to know this is a security risk and provocation that even many Israelis are just not willing to take.

Given the history of Israel when it comes to this type of breech of security, an Israeli prime minister is usually defeated in the next election. Already, there is evidence that the war cabinet is breaking apart but when an election happens is anyone's guess. Israel is as polarized as other western nations. Netanyahu works best in this highly charged atmosphere but there does seem to be a reckoning coming. What seems unlikely is whether the International Criminal Court is going to be his undoing. The case for self defence will remain and even the prosecutor will have a tough time untangling that one.

The thing about Israel is that it is a democracy and they debate these issues. It isn't a monolithic view. And it certainly isn't one that seeks never-ending war. Israel has made peace with neighbours and exchanged land for security in the past. A two state solution has been discussed and moves have been made to achieve that but Hamas has never agreed to two states. They push for the violent overthrow of Israel and elimination of them as a people in the region. Sadly, some of their supporters also support this.  And not just in Israel but everywhere.

Netanyahu has been unprepared for the defence of Israel and has squandered the goodwill that so many had following the terrorist attack. But it is hard to say to that his government is singularly responsible for genocide. A unilateral ceasefire is probably not going to help Israel's security. And Palestinian supporters are uncritical of the awful governance of Hamas or it's attacks on Israel. 

Meanwhile in Winnipeg, a Valedictorian speech that accuses Israel of deliberately targeting hospitals and genocide probably inspires Hamas to keep fighting. Some students might have taken inspiration from the speech and feel persecuted for their free speech. However, free speech runs both ways so people should not be surprised by counter criticism.

Israel and Gaza need food and health agencies who are able to earn the trust of people in areas of conflict. Taking sides makes it impossible to do the work. A Valedictorian could have made the point that rendering aid for non-combatants is in the good offices of anyone who calls themselves doctor. It doesn't support any side except the vulnerable.

Certainly doctors can be political but their ability to navigate through tough political water often depends on their good work. Red Cross has been able to help get hostages freed because both sides have trusted them to do this work. If Red Cross blamed one side or the other, it would just eliminate one more arbiter of the conflict.

Sometimes people identify with one of the parties and assumes they are the underdog. It is far more complicated than that. The ceasefire calls and blaming Israel don't seem aimed at the ending the conflict and getting hostages returned. I'm sure there will be more speeches made in graduation ceremonies in the next little while and there will be likely just as much countercriticism.

One thing is for certain is that the Israeli people will decide in an election what the future. Many of them are looking for clarity as well as a reduction on hostilities. The big question is whether Gazans get that choice from Hamas as well.

 

Terror in Israel, Protests in Winnipeg

 

The attacks on Israel by Hamas have been particularly brutal. The death toll is rising fast and nothing quite like it has happened before. Invariably, overseas events result in protests and rallies in Canada. At City Hall in Winnipeg we saw Palestinian and Israeli supporters on opposite sides of the street separated by Winnipeg Police. No incidents appear to have happened here but elsewhere in North America some of the crowds rejoiced.

Hamas has been designated as a terrorist group in Canada. They group opposes the legitimacy of Israel and any two state solution. They are Islamist and aim to push Jews and any other group out of the region. A former Hamas leader has called for a world jihad this week. Others have said prior their aims don't stop at Israel. One thing has been clear, Hamas is not interested in any negotiation. Their goal is the destruction of Jews according to their own words.

Inside the Gaza Strip, Hamas controls the territory after Fatah lost elections some years ago. Fatah remains as representative in the West Bank. The two factions are rivals for power in the region with different allies in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Since Hamas is not committed to the two state solution and supports violent expulsion of the Jews, Israel has walled off the very dense Gaza Strip. Egypt has done the same. And the air and the sea are blockaded to prevent arms shipments. Nevertheless, Gaza smuggles in weapons and rockets and continues to attack Israel to force them out.

In the days prior to the attack, it appeared Saudi Arabia and Israel might formalize some sort of relationship. This has a lot to with Iran which which many Arab countries feel is a threat to everyone. This still might happen but very likely everything is on hold while fighting still goes on. Israel has made progress with some of the big players in the Arab world but has stalled on the Palestinian front largely due to Hamas.

To be sure Netanyahu seems to have given up on the two state approach and has tried to blunt his critics in Israel and elsewhere. He has also continued to push settlements in the Golan Heights and West Bank. Support for his policies and for Netanyahu personally is sharply divided due to changes being made to the courts, corruption charges and security as it pertains to the region. Building houses in the West Bank has been contentious even for Israelis. It inflames already volatile feelings even more.

Blaming Israel for the attack from Gaza ignores the fact that there have been no Israeli settlements there for 20 years and that Hamas refuses to negotiate a two state settlement. Even those with sympathies for Palestinians have offered no solutions that don't involve the elimination of the Jews in Israel. And by elimination, Hamas has been explicit that it is extermination.

As for Canada, governments at all levels have to ensure security and safety. Violence here and exported from here cannot be tolerated. This applies to India, Israel or anywhere else where there is a hotspot. Freedom of speech is permissible but not when it becomes hate speech, incitement, calls for violence or raising money/arms for terror.

It is difficult to say what is to come in the next days and weeks. Canada's duty is to assist Canadians and permanent residents getting back home as best they can. That includes helping those who lost loved ones and need assistance in their time of grief. There may be refugees in the next while. It wouldn't be the first time bad people have tried to sneak in. We have had our fill of Nazis, warlords, terrorists and criminals try to come to Canada and some have succeeded. It is best we prepare now because often we are two steps behind as we have been in several recent conflicts.

We cannot tolerate militants using Canada as a safe base to attack their enemies in Canada and abroad. We have seen this from Irish as well as Indians in Canada supporting and carrying out terrorist attacks over the years. India certainly seems to think that Canada gives comfort to those who would commit violence. It may be why they are suspected in the extra judicial assassination of a Sikh Canadian. While free speech is permissible, fundraising for insurrection, incitements to violence and other violations can't be allowed to happen.

And as people protest, it is worthwhile to remember that if people are calling for peace and are peaceful, they should be left alone. And if they support one side over the other peacefully, they also should be left alone. Either might think the other side is hopefully naïve and misguided but non-violent demonstrations are part of the national discussion. Those who wish to do harm to one or the other have no right in Canada and should be dealt with.

Tough days ahead are likely. Lashing out at normal citizens because of their nationality, religion or ethnicity is uncalled for. Try to be kind to those who are hurting and fearful of family and friends caught in this. Do what you can to keep your neighbours and community safe. That should be a rule of thumb at any time. Work to create peace whenever you can.