Provincial Election 2023

Advance polls opened on Saturday, September 23 and there has been a fairly brisk turnout ever since. Tens of thousands have voted using the new scanner equipment instead of the old pencil and paper system. It remains to be seen if it can be counted sooner that the old way which was consistent and reliable but could take time.

TV stations, as we saw in the last civic election, can grow impatient and call and election so they can resume regular programming. And get it wrong.

The election has not suffered from a lack of debate. No matter what happens, the result will likely be something different in that the first elected premier will be a woman or indigenous man. And possibly a return to party status for the Liberals. It it is probable that two of those those things will not happen.

There are only so many competitive ridings of the 57 in Manitoba. Some are stalwart Progressive Conservative or NDP seats. Maybe only one can be said to be a steady Liberal seat in River Heights. This leaves suburban seats in Winnipeg as the focus of much attention as they have histories of voting different parties. 

In this election the Progressive Conservatives have a new leader as premier in Heather Stefanson. It is her first election after serving in cabinet including as health minister. Wab Kinew is a veteran in the house after building the NDP back up after the leadership of Greg Selinger. The Liberals also have a veteran leader in Dougald Lamont who won his seat in the former NDP leader Greg Selinger's riding in St. Boniface.

In recent decades, the attention on politics has been solidly on the leaders although no one directly votes for the leaders, they only vote for their MLA which may or may not be the leader. Local candidates can matter but aside from door to door, there are not a lot of ways to get noticed as not too many local debates are available nor profiles in community news papers which are rapidly disappearing. Podcasts is the only way I generally hear anything that is about individual candidates. Otherwise, I read their campaign websites.

Lots of MLAs/ministers stepped down this year so no matter what there will be a lot of new faces. And given the amount of promises made in the election there will also be a different direction that the province is going, presumably. It is worth noting that all of this is dependent on the economy. A recession could change all those tax cuts and program spending.

Some late polls have indicated a NDP lead. The lack of any Liberal or Green candidate in some ridings will make it harder for PCs to win in close ridings that they won in squeakers last time. The lack of incumbents in many PC ridings means more campaigning at home rather than helping other candidates as has happened in the past. As for the NDP, they have made direct appeals to past Liberal voters to vote for them to defeat the PCs. If the polls are any indication, it might be working. However, it will be hard to beat the Liberals in the three ridings they already hold.

Tuesday, October 3 is official election day. Voter turnout and which party motivates their voters could be a factor. Campaigns do matter and over the course of the election, momentum might have moved the electorate, especially in Winnipeg.

We'll find out soon enough how it turns out.