Pierre Poilievre Next Prime Minister of Canada?

Double digits poll support over the Liberals, it would seem the Conservatives are in a position to take a historic victory with a majority not seen since Mulroney. His axe the tax stand of removing the carbon tax is resonating with a lot of people. However, he hasn't made clear if he is dropping all the efforts in the area of climate change. For example, will he drop electric car support, geo-thermal, solar or electric power grids in favour of oil and gas. Some of their policies suggest they will sell water and allow resource development in presently protected areas. There doesn't seem to be anywhere to ask questions about if any of this is true. Increasingly, Conservatives are not responding to any media...even those that would seem friendly to it.

It probably isn't necessary. Poll numbers are great, money is coming in and even if the economy improves, it still doesn't change the message. The gas tax cuts will be the first things to go if and when Poilievre is elected. Climate change supports are likely to go next. The only thing that might mitigate that is what happens in the U.S. and the world. If the markets start to really change for oil and gas products, it will not help if Canada is not manufacturing electric vehicles and investing in other technologies. The German government has already said they are committed to energy such as hydrogen. Some Conservatives have attacked her for saying this.

On crime, the statistics are bad over the last ten years with rising numbers. While some numbers are lower, violent crime and property crimes have spiked. It isn't just as federal government problem. It affects provincial and municipal governments as well. The Conservatives say this all began when the Liberals took over as government in 2015. While this is true, it ignores the others levels of government, few of which were Liberal. Police themselves have said there are many factors leading to more violent crime, some of which are are at levels of government below the federal one such as social services, education and housing.

The Liberals though are taking it on the chin mostly from inflation. And even though it has come down to 2%, a lot of people are still carrying a lot of debt and renewing debt on such things as mortgages at higher levels. Bank of Canada rates have come down and are forecast to come down more but people are still hurting. After nearly 10 years, it very hard to win elected office again for the same leader. Nearly impossible. Pierre Trudeau couldn't do it and relied on the Conservatives under Joe Clark not being able to retain confidence. Poilievre is hoping to land a large majority to keep that from happening like it did to Joe Clark.

The government could collapse in October if the Bloc don't get some of their policies pushed through on seniors. They appear to be expensive promises and it is uncertain if the government supports them or believe they are necessary. The Liberals will likely weigh the benefits of supporting this plan, especially if it only buys a few week of confidence. An election could easily be before Christmas.

The Bloc Quebecois could end up being the Official Opposition in this scenario as they were from 1993 to 1996. The difference then was the Liberals were in government and campaigned to keep Quebec in Canada. Would the Conservatives do that or would they push them out the door? There are so many policy issues that largely remain unknown. A vote on the carbon tax is what Poilievre wants to make the election all about but he hasn't indicated much detail on other areas including defence and national unity.

Poilievre has said he will make it a priority about bringing down the cost of housing. This past year thus far has seen housing starts go up 4%. Lower interest rates should help builders with more starts but even with historically low rates a few years back, housing prices were rising. This isn't something the Conservatives can change any more than the Liberals. 

The Conservatives think inflation might go down if they eliminate the gas tax but it could increase spending in other areas which could raise inflation. It certainly did that for housing prices even when the overall rate was 2% inflation. The only thing that will really moderate prices is capacity. We don't enough housing units overall and haven't for many years.

The market is tricky that way. If there is a mad rush and bidding on houses goes crazy, people will not benefit. Supply chain issues, zoning and approvals all take time. Some areas in Toronto and Calgary are saying no to anything except detached housing. This happened when Harper was in power as well with Poilievre in cabinet. Now the Liberals are in power but provinces in Ontario and Alberta have conservatives governments and struggle as well. The truth is that all levels of government are responsible for this.

In some university towns in 2024, there are now rentals available because the federal government has limited students. However, this is now putting pressure on universities because of reduced tuitions. Meanwhile, some businesses won't have skilled people coming out of the university system leaving the job market unfilled. 

Clearly, we need more policy ideas from Poilievre if he is to become prime minister.  If tax cuts are the only thing offered, the possibility of rising deficit is strong. And if service cuts are in the offing, where will they come? In Manitoba, we saw a balanced budget under Pallister but it came at the cost of cutting constructions budgets, not settling contracts and a whole host of other spending throttling that was eventually was going to have to be paid later on. The NDP under Kinew seems reluctant to end some of those tax cuts even as the deficit grows. They will have no choice at some point because borrowing money to pay for tax cuts is just not on.

What a Poilievre government might do aside from cutting taxes, climate investments and the CBC is unclear. And will the social conservatives on the team have sway on abortion, IVF, assisted death and other areas? No one knows. It is possible his government might be as light on legislation as the Republican Congress in the U.S. is. The big difference between the U.S. House of Representative and Canada's Parliament is that a majority in Canada is able to achieve far more with less chance of a veto by the courts and Senate.

As far as foreign affairs goes, it is likely that aid to Ukraine could come into question. Some Conservatives are outright hostile to the assistance and our more supportive of Russia. As far as Israel goes, there are enough evangelicals in the party supporting a war there for biblical reasons. Canada's allies give the country less leeway to not pull weight. Presently, the Liberals are being pressured to get to 2% GDP for defence spending. Poilievre has said he is not committed to spending that much. It is unlikely he will be able to pull that attitude in NATO meetings. 

A sudden election could very well have Pierre Poilievre become prime minister without a clear direction. One possible clue of what is to come is to look at the Doug Ford government in Ontario which defeated the Liberals who had been in power for 15 years. Ford has won two majorities and seems set to win a third majority. Ford, unlike Poilievre, is a populist which propels his agenda. It remains to be seen is Poilievre can get people to like him as much as Ford. Moreover, there tends to be a trend in Canada that provinces often balance out political support. In other words, if Canada goes Conservative, it often results in changes on the provincial level.

Change is important in government. It also allows the opposition to rebuild and focus their role as critics and alternatives. At the moment, it is hard to see what change will be coming, especially with an election possible very soon.