Election 2025?

 The new budget comes November 4 and the final vote on it comes a few weeks after. It is a confidence vote. If all the parties vote against it and there are no abstentions or people absent from the House, it is an automatic election before Christmas. An election is not an idle thing to dismiss. In 1979, the Progressive Conservative government of Joe Clark was defeated six months after being elected in a confidence vote. Pierre Trudeau and the Liberals one again became the government.

While there may be lessons from that time, each elected government has their own unique circumstances. Other countries have regular minority governments but the way Canada's system operates, the results leans more to majorities. However, in recent years Canada has had repeated minorities. The last minority government under Trudeau's Liberals was supported Singh's NDP. It lasted a long time but ultimately hurt the NDP. The Liberals also hurt by a long tenure changed leaders and fears regarding the United States and Trump led to a victory for Carney and another Liberal minority.

We are divided politically but probably less polarized than our neighbours to the south. However, the parties have all boxed themselves in and likely won't take the time to figure out leadership, policy platforms as well as how to build a successful party if elections are a threat every few months. The Conservatives have seen one member cross the floor. Apparently, some are not waiting for the leadership review of Pierre Poilievre. 

A budget where no one is happy is par for the course. The big question is whether it is enough for an election. Some media critics are upset with the budget that it didn't go far enough. Some wanted more spending, some wanted tax breaks and tax reform. Given the minority, it is likely the best budget that could be presented that might get passed.

The one floor crossing of a Conservative to the Liberals means that the Government is two votes short of a majority. Rumours abound about other MPs looking to cross the floor. If two more cross then the Liberals should be in a good position to have three or four years to make their budget work. This might be wishful thinking on the part of the Liberals. The rest of the week will be debate on the budget and the vote will come two weeks from now. At the moment, it looks like an election.