Benjamin Netanyahu

The man is a survivor in Israeli politics. However, things inside and outside of Israel could not be more dire. He has sold many on his commitment to keep Israel safe but the October 7 attack was a huge failure of military and civilian intelligence. His War Coalition is falling apart and even though there is joy at some hostages freed, there are tens of thousands protesting his handling of the conflict.

The divisiveness of his rule as of late as been suggested contributed to intelligence reports that Hamas and others looked at it as something to exploit. And they did. Israel's reaction was entirely predictable because they did the same thing when an Israeli soldier was kidnapped by Hezbollah years ago. The country had a collective rage and it was inflicted on southern Lebanon. It was not easy to extract themselves from that and it won't be easy to extract themselves from Gaza now.

No past leader in Israel has survived politically following such an attack. Netanyahu was already facing some of the fiercest protests and opposition seen in Israel. Courtroom battles have marked his tenure and he sought to weaken the courts in return. His far right coalition is seeking to keep Ultra-Orthodox Jews from serving in the military which angers other Israelis as deaths climb to 600 soldiers.

Netanyahu has lost in the past but always seems to come back. But he always came back with a promise of Israeli security. In light of what happened and his strategy with Hamas and Fatah and dividing Palestinians, he might try to blame others for the attack but it was on his watch. It was his policy and it was his failure. An election is coming and the electorate is highly motivated.

One thing is clear about Netanyahu over the many years is that he is against a two state solution. He has stated over and over he believes that Israel should annex West Bank and this is possibly the plan for Gaza as well. Does it solve Israel's security crisis? Not really unless it is about pushing Palestinians out of the region. Not as easy feat for just under 6 million Palestinians in the area. In short, it's a mess.

Hamas is an extremist group and a terrorist organization. Netanyahu's goal of destroying them all seems as far off as when the U.S. thought it could defeat the Viet Cong. If it was easily done, it would have happened already. Israel has a right to defend itself but if Netanyahu thought a weakened Hamas was not a serious threat and all he had to was bombard them occasionally, he was seriously mistaken. The fact that Hamas is prepared to sacrifice their own civilians in huge numbers and hide among them is a huge problem. Occupying Gaza and continuing building settlements in the West Bank is escalating the conflict.

The push on annexation and settlements is Netanyahu's goal and has been for as long as he has been in politics. His support in Israel has come from the promise that this brings security. It is an argument that even some of his allies have a hard time making after the attack. His enemies believe he is drawing out the war to cling to power. One of the likely reasons his war cabinet is breaking up is that there doesn't seem to be an end phase to it. Defeat of Hamas hasn't been defined nor what Gaza looks like afterward which is what the cabinet needs to hear. It was what the U.S. and the world needs to hear too.

It might be Netanyahu's wish to draw out the war in the hopes the there is a change of President back to Trump. It is that change that he figures he might get to agenda with U.S. backing. He probably doesn't have that time though. Israel is a democracy and an election is coming sooner than that. It won't be the first time Netanyahu has lost if he does end up losing. He has been in exile before but it may be harder for him to argue that his way of dealing with Hamas makes Israel more secure.

And there's rub. Netanyahu has come back so many times promising better security than the other options. It just doesn't seem to have the full sway of past statements. At some point Israelis themselves will push hard to end things, especially if hostages or more Israeli soldiers end up dead. The west is pushing a ceasefire agreement. Not to do Hamas any favours but because Netanyahu doesn't have a plan for what comes next because the plan is to continue for months and into next year. It won't be satisfactory to anyone, especially families of hostages,

The best hope is a democratic Israel pushes to put it to a vote and make what comes next an election issue. It will be messy but should bring clarity. Nothing about the conflict is easy. Protest in North America and around the world that seek to lay the blame solely at Israel's and how it has nothing to do with Jews except that they should be not be in the region, should be taken for what they really are. And that is an eradication plan. 

The main force for finding a solution will come from Israel. Hamas has shown they are committed to sacrificing their people but Netanyahu's way of dealing with them has failed. A generational change is likely. It is hard to see what the outcome will be but Israelis themselves are exhausted from failed strategies and conflict. A continuation of Netanyahu ensures that strategy stays. He has said so himself.