The free trade agreements made over decades was to supply chains crossed the border and that rules would make sense from a prosperity standpoint. CUSMA trade is nearly completely tariff free. Only a few areas like culture, dairy are set aside for specific reasons of ensuring support for farmers and culture industries. We have already backed down on policy a few times on culture legislation. On dairy, it is unclear what talks have taken place.
What is clear from the premiers meeting with the prime minister in PEI is that most premiers are not backing down on alcohol on the shelves. But don't expect much help from Saskatchewan and Alberta. They keep alcohol on the shelf and don't want any interference on potash and energy. They have agreed to direct to consumer sales within Canada this week which is a huge deal for Canadian beer and spirits. This is a big deal in bringing freer trade to the provinces which could increase gross domestic product internally. The longer U.S. liquor is off the shelf, the more it is changing consumption habits. It is for sure making the U.S. crazy about liquor off the shelf. They seem completely puzzled by it.
Trade negotiators in the U.S. seem shocked we just won't accept a permanent tariff on everything and that we are obedient and compliant. And because we have tried to remove some irritant, they likely think they can have it all and even more. The Canadian public is even more incensed and want to fight so premiers are actually holding them back from even more. I think the realization is that Trump is the unpredictable one. Still, you often hear Moe and Smith say that Carney has to get a deal but wont saw what concessions should be made. Just not any in their provinces.
Greer, Bessant, Lutnick and Hoekstra are all bootlickers for Trump. Perhaps they believe in or merely looking to get a pardon when their time is up for something. I seriously believe the desire for pardons is what guides many of the people who work for the administration. So fuck them now and later on. They should be ashamed in years after even if they avoid criminal charges.
Greer spoke before Congress and there is an even longer list coming. He wants bilateral deals that protect the U.S. on cheap energy and minerals but that's it. Expect huge tariffs on everything else. A number of the Senators put the pressure on but Republican Senators have no balls. Peter Navarro goes on the pages of the National Post with absolutely no rebuttal to his bullocks argument that it is Canada's fault.
If Canada does get hit with tariffs it sure seems like there will be a reply in kind. The two provinces that are allowing U.S. liquor sales will likely find a 50% tariff on bourbon and wine in those provinces. They can continue to buy but will there be consumers in the market? Is having a bourbon in Calgary worth paying 50% more? I guess some people will pay that price but many won't. There is already evidence that people are moving away from American wine even when available.
The latest indignity is a 10% tariff on Canada starting July 24 for forced labour. It is a catch all for 80 countries. There is no way to satisfy Trump on this even with the same law as they have. The U.S. exempts themselves from prison labour. Some countries like the UK will get a worse deal than they had previously with Trump. One wonders if they will take it lying down. Norway has said they will. If they are prepared to to take that, maybe they can give up some more too.
So Canada has to cobble together trade deals elsewhere. This week it was free trade with Ecuador. There always seems to be complaints about most deals and this is no different. Ecuador is not what many want in terms of human rights. Many advocates say Canada should not have trade with most of the world till human rights and environmental issues are settled. Conversely, we are asked for aid and criticized when that doesn't come. The balance is a difficult one but don't know bans or tariffs helps on banana and cocoa from Ecuador and airplanes from Canada. If we want to promote world peace, we have to keep talking, trading and finding common ground.
There are sometimes reasons for sanctions and tariffs but not for the reasons Trump has. Anti-dumping is a tariff for those countries that are dumping product that they are overbuilding in their territory so that they can undercut another country. It is anticompetitive practice. Tariffs can be used for national security reasons too. In general though, a tariff should be regarded as a tax on yourself and if kept in place can keep your home industry out of date and unproductive. It seems a dumb thing to keep taxing.
Trumps tariffs are to bully Canada. We should take him at his word he believe Canada is about to totter and become a U.S. territory. Fuck him on that idea. Many Canadians are horrified at the chaos down in the U.S. and want nothing to do with being strip mined. We really don't Target stores back in Canada that bad. In the mean time, we should remain calm and carry on. In the last week alone, free trade agreements with Ecuador and United Arab Emirates. There is a huge investment conference in Canada coming in September. We really need an internal response to to overcome what is happening down in the States and for the next two and half years.
No comments:
Post a Comment