The Forks Comeback 2023

Early in the new year, The Forks turned around their numbers for people coming the site to pre-pandemic levels. Measured by trackers at entrances and seen in actual numbers at events, January 2023 looked more like January 2019. Space to gather has been a hallmark of The Forks and key events, unique merchants, special food experiences and tourist attractions makes it different from other areas. Crime scares and protests groups have had an impact but renewed security may be helping. Random attacks cannot be dismissed as overreacting. If people are afraid they will stop going to a place. In fact, they will flee. And the recent occurrence of protest groups using The Forks for gatherings can and has resulted in problems. One of the reasons in the past we have not seen this is that the park area has been that it is intensely busy with festivals, concerts and recreation. Hard to have a protest when so many people are there already for other reasons. Usually celebrating.

The Forks has to walk a fine balance. Their next stage of development announced some time this year will probably be some sort of apartments across from the Human Rights Museum. The risk is that new residents take a dislike to some of the long term activities that have existed for decades such as concerts and festivals. Or perhaps new residents ask that the more than the century railway line be moved once apartments are up. It is not beyond the pale. It may be that new residents ask that the skate board park be removed. Certain we know that fireworks will no longer be part of Forks celebrations. Perhaps they will get an order for them to be stopped at Goldeyes Park as well.

Things evolve to be sure. Assiniboine Park no longer has fireworks and the same applies to The Forks. Tens of thousands used to go to both and stay for the fireworks. Arguments can be made about how it scares animals and annoys a great number of people but, in the case of Assiniboine Park, it means they shut down for the night quite early for activities. In recent years there have been calls to end concerts outdoors as well even if they earlier in the day. If The Forks goes down the same route, it is likely most outdoor activities might be limited due to residential complaints, especially at night.

The parkade at Portage Place continues to be cash injection every year at The Forks, They have at least moved to charge for parking that they do have including their own parkade which for the longest time was free. They have also started renewing leases at more market set rates. Local innovation in food, retail and recreation has differentiated it from a regular mall. Returning revenue into improving the area marks it differently as well since the money isn't sent to investors in Toronto.

The recent offer from True North to buy the land lease and parkade along with the mall at Portage Place looks to net The Forks $34.5 million. They have publicly stated that they would put it in savings and use the interest to fund things. Do the government parties have a say on this windfall? That is a lot of unassigned money.

Sustainability is important because after the last sections are developed, it is unrealistic to think that cash injections from three levels of government will come. There are indications that revenue to support the site and the programming therein is a priority.  That comes from charging for parking they have on site, lease money as landlord of the area and site rentals for festivals. Mandate creep could see The Forks tasked to develop other land but we have see what happen from the North Portage experience. The Forks diverts the money to themselves. In a lot of ways, North Portage would have better staying as a separate entity as revenue would have stayed in the area. The Forks, on the other hand, would have gone bankrupt in 1994.

Winnipeg downtown is not the only place trying to pivot during the pandemic for downtown areas. Toronto has found it very painful and the closure of Nordstrom's in Eaton Centre and many other retailer has hit hard. And like a lot of North America, people are slow to return to the office. Nevertheless it is growing and plans are for 100 new condo towers a year for the next ten years. But will people be working in offices or from home? And what will become of downtown office towers and attractions? Or old neighbourhoods? Below is Toronto in 1989.

In the 1980s through 1990s Toronto was like Winnipeg in that it had football fields of parking space and industrial land/rail yards open. Above from Toronto Archives in 1989 is what Toronto looked like. The area in red was the railyards. In 2023, the entire area is filled with offices, condos/apartments and the like. However, the 1990s were marked by a real estate collapse was pretty widespread across Canada including Toronto and Winnipeg. It really is the last years that Toronto residential towers have exploded so that they literally dwarf the five big banks downtown.

Both Toronto and Winnipeg developed their rail yards and in the case of Toronto, their port. It can be argued which did better. I think Winnipeg did better at creating public space and a sense of centrality to the city that Portage and Main lost or never had, Toronto certainly created big sport and convention centre facilities but in all that rail land, where is the great public space? It is all condos now.

Sometimes being about 20 years behind has helped Winnipeg avoid mistakes other urban areas have committed before us. For example, Calgary demolished its warehouse district. Toronto in a rush to fill waterfront area with condos had insiders grab units and the buildings created a wall of glass and concrete from the shore. At The Forks, development has been slow and thoughtful and each piece has been well considered. Once again, it was money from Portage Place that made it possible not too just fill it with condos.

Developers would love to build in The Forks. There are really only two spaces left but is unlikely a large tower or two that will be built because of the scale. Public and political pressures will limit the height and frown on restricted public access. It will more clear what comes soon enough. Presently, the parking lots are revenue generators so The Forks are not in a rush to see them closed for development that could take two to three years. The question of having public parkades below the new development and/or public transit/active transportation is still being discussed. 

The above picture sourced from The Forks. The Human Rights Museum is a national museum next to a national park. The expectation is that the area will always have school buses, public transit and active transportation to it. Accessible parking, loading zones, tourist parking need to be accounted for. When Railside and Parcel 4 are removed, will they have a public component for a tourist/visitor to park, walk through, get a meal and access The Forks attractions be part of the equation?

Picture from Forks documents. The rail line makes for a walled area for the The Forks and Goldeyes Park. The shaded red area is where announcements will be made in due course of what will go up on the surface parking lots. There is certainly enough parking just outside the rail wall. However, it is beyond the mandate of The Forks so matters of security, accessibility and availability end at Main Street. Why this matters is that should be of high concern to The Forks of how people come to The Forks. Do they avoid it because it is too far away, too unsafe, hard for for those with mobility issues? Is it too expensive? No place to bring a tour bus in? A school bus. No place to have buses waiting? The very long term success of The Forks turns on these questions.

Ironically, the other charge in the North Portage Forks mandate, Portage Place might have a more solid future once it is sold and have more opportunities for future public and private investment. The above picture from Forks documents shows the huge area it covers. And yet other parts of downtown are in need of some sort of planning to help with sustainability.  It is a little bit like whack-a-mole. One area of downtown gets attention only for another are to collapse. Recent example, the closure of the The Bay.

The 2023 comeback for The Forks will have to focus on safety with the large numbers of people that come through. This is not just limited to crime but in terms of crowd control, traffic control, water safety and events that are celebrations of community. It would be a shame if the Forks has to shut out mid-evening for events because of noise concerns. As mentioned, fireworks will just continue somewhere else...like Assiniboia Downs. They just won't be accessible to those without a car.

Sometimes your success causes you to cancel things because of neighbourhood rejection. Things like Days of Wine on Roses were cancelled on Corydon and New Year's celebrations in Osborne Village because business and residents reject them. And so the concern at The Forks is that someone says: no more parades. And maybe that happens as people push to make the area less friendly to those outside their region.

There seems some certainty that in 2023/2024/2025, The Forks will have tens of millions from Portage Place sale. And even without much of a coordinated development plan for downtown, there are a number of projects that will all likely be coming on stream at the same time. Expanded hotels, apartment buildings and office towers are going up within blocks of The Forks. This contributes to more people living and working close to the largest green space by the Red River. Moreover, more traffic on riverwalks/sidewalks, skating paths and biking lanes are a reflection of how close some people are to the area. It doesn't make sense if you live in an apartment in St. Boniface a baseball throw away from a festival in The Forks to drive your car less than several minutes away.

If safety and public access to The Forks remain a priority, it can succeed in attracting people and unique stores, restaurants and festivals. The success of the area going forward should trigger further exciting development in nearby opening spaces. Surface parking lots are a poor use of downtown space. This is why True North chose to develop the former Eaton's parking lot into buildings and a square to enhance the value of their entertainment district. There are 200 parking spaces underground which is about the amount that the same amount occupied by the surface lot.

Winnipeg remains a car city but certain neighbourhoods like Osborne, St. Boniface, parts of Henderson and others make it possible to actually walk to a grocer, bank or pharmacy. That is to say, they are closer and easier to step out of your door and walk to than to get in your car and drive. Even in Brightwater, there are plenty of people who are in walking distance of the grocery store and other amenities.

The Forks is many things but it isn't that neighbourhood described above. If people live across from the Human Rights Museum, The Forks Market nearby is not a full grocery, nor pharmacy or local bank. More of the empty spaces near The Forks will have to be filled with such things or residents will have to head out of the area to patronize them. It isn't likely that a large national grocer will be built on the site but numbers of residents spreading out along Waterfront and two apartments built on Main in the last year means means a place like Winnipeg Square might service nearby residents longer hours and offer more grocery items at their Shoppers Drug Mart.

The real test this year for The Forks will be how they handle summer starting in June. There will be many assessing the safety of large festivals, how Canada Day will be celebrated and if protests and rallies become increasingly part of the public space as a substitute for the Legislature. And most importantly, will attractions becomes less public or require a charge, Will their hours be reduced? Will attractions be pushed out? All eyes will be watching on this. The comeback will only become permanent if the vast majority of people believe we all have ownership in the area.

True North Puts Bid in for Portage Place

Well, here we are again. Portage Place has received an offer locally this time from Jets ownership and the True North partnership.  The price had dropped like a stone. Starlight had offered just under $70 million that included the mall, parkade and skywalks. The mall owned by B.C. developer Spruceland Mall Limited Partnership (formerly Peterson Group and Peter Young) was valued around $22.5 million. The parkade and land lease which is owned by Forks North Portage Partnership around $47 million.

True North has bid $34.5 million for parkade and land lease. A separate deal has to be struck for the mall. It appears a number of groups have already signed off on the deal including The Forks, the province and the feds. A number of social agencies have said the deal should be rejected and the negotiations with First Nations and Metis should be begin. However, in two years no one (and that means no one) has actually stepped forward with any type of proposal till now. There have been wish lists but no actual plan.

The True North Real Estate Development is the lead on the proposal and consultations are allotted a 12 month window. Jim Ludlow, president of the company, has talked about deconstructing the mall, opening it up  and have housing as a component.  He says it won't be a mall anymore. Beyond that, I suppose it is anyone's guess what it will all turn out as. The one thing they have managed thus far is offering money and a timetable. The Forks North Portage agency has said there has be a re-evaluation of the monetary value of the site but they haven't released anything.

Social agencies have said the space should be open 24 hours and have laundry, showers and community space. Others have said affordable housing. A group of interested parties listed a number of things they wanted but no budget was given. It is likely they believed the three levels of government were going to hand over $400 million that Starlight wanted. However, if some of the governments balked at supporting that, they're not likely to going to hand two blocks to someone else with no plan in place or organization behind it.

Governments are more likely to back things like the Mclaren's Hotel's $12 million housing project to covert all the hotel's rooms in to 150 tiny homes with more modern amenities and and supports for under $550. Now that is a real project, with real management with real costs and timetable. It saves an old building and puts home pride behind it.

The Bay has a redevelopment plan coming and affordable housing is being supported there. And that truly is indigenous-led. The Metis have their Portage and Main development, a hotel planned and just finished social housing on Main Street. Treaty 1 has major work on the Kayong site. Is there an indigenous group ready to take over Portage Place with so much on the go already? If there are interested parties, maybe we will hear a counteroffer. However, nothing yet.

Criticism of True North simply to dismiss them does not solve the issue of Portage Place. Not at all. It remains for sale. Put up a workable plan. That is the benchmark for anyone and everyone out there. Don't ask for $400 million and not have any idea what you would do with it. Don't think you won't pay the mall owner and the parkade owner and get Portage Place for a $1. Unlike The Bay, the building is not nearly as distressed as the department store was. There is value there and saying it is worthless is dishonest.

A few critics blamed the Jets for gentrifying the area making the downtown too expensive. Some are still upset the Eaton's building was torn down. Some blame capitalism, colonialism and and a host of other things. This all might be true. But it doesn't offer solutions. Making up a shopping list of fixes if the goals are not achievable or sustainable is an exercise in frustration. Asking for housing where there are units with washers/dryers, dishwashers, two bedrooms+, pet friendly with utilities included for $600 a month may not support the maintenance of the building in the future. Just ask Lion's Place. A real plan is needed.

Truth is we need tens of thousands of units built every year for years to come. The best strategy might be to support renters and buyers directly rather than getting into building government structures. We have already seen the University of Winnipeg develop several buildings with market rate and below market rate rents. It has formed a cluster of apartments all around the art gallery and more are coming.

Speed is of the essence. It can take years upon years to get something approved. And people can be very contrarian. Many say they support more housing but not near them. This was from a 2023 poll in Toronto and is reflective of the whole country. Almost every housing project seems to draw a long zoning debate even if it is adding space to your own home. In recent months, density has been considered a threat. Thirty years ago most older neighbourhoods had more people living in them now and were considered good places to live.

Portage Place mall has been in place for 36 years and has had pads atop east and west and no apartments ever built. They money siphoned off to The Forks since 1994 could have made a difference. But then maybe we would be talking about how The Forks went under. Our large downtown has meant focus on developments is ever shifting. A crisis happens in a new place every decade. The development on north Portage had quite a lot of housing built but those final two spaces remained empty. And cash spent on the parking never went to anything else on north Portage. It is easy to see why disdain for the area grew as nothing was ever re-invested.

From the perspective of True North Real Estate, Portage Place represents a distressed asset across from all of of their developments. The most important part of the mall is the 1000 car parkade. Without it, no deal can be made. The parkade is the jewel in the crown. It makes money. It has always made money. It just doesn't have money go to mall owners. That changes if all of Portage Place is owned by one entity instead of several. I have lots of questions about the $34.5 million of the parkade and land rights sale going to The Forks but will save for another post.

The mall itself has little value but it will have to be paid something to the tune of under $20 million. Portage Place has been for sale for years but it does have some fine tenants like Prairie Theatre Exchange and Manitoba Chamber Orchestra, dental offices, phone companies, university offices and Expo Live. But there are too many retail vacancies and the food court is considered is struggling as well.

Some people have said they think True North is nuts to buy Portage Place but the money spent can be made back on the parkade alone. Taken from hints from what Jim Ludlow has said, it is very likely the mall will be broken up with Edmonton Street once again passing through to the other side. It won't be a motorway in the traditional sense. Likely, it will be one lane only with wide sidewalks connecting to the Promenade on the other side. A second floor enclosed skywalk will fulfill the government's request to maintain connectivity all the way to The Bay. However, it also is an important link for the True North's arena to have direct connection to the 1000 indoor parking spaces of Portage Place.

The interesting part will be the west portion of Portage Place. It is the widest section, also has a pad for a tower on it and has the walkway that goes all the way to The Bay which should have a plan announced soon. Is that west section big enough for a future arena? Now I know you are saying...hold on, we have an arena. Yes, we do but we also have two hockey teams. And Winnipeg Ice are looking for a new home. Do we also get a lacrosse team? A basketball team? A women's hockey team? Could we be looking at two arenas? Don't rule it out. 

The entire length of Portage Avenue is important to the vitality of downtown. The entire reason for Portage Place's development was that while south Portage Avenue was vital with stores, north Portage was seeing more vacancies and in some cases, one building burned down and wasn't replaced. There were some bright spots to be sure such as Kennedy Street and some specialty shops but no new investments and a few hotels that were particularly rough.

By 1980, Manitoba was in a deep recession. Huge businesses had shut down. The first of tens of thousands of people were leaving the province, moving headquarters, closing factories and production. It was awful. In 1981, the Core Area Initiative was formed as a three levels of government program to cover a huge amount the inner city with a budget of $196 million over ten years. That is $600 million in today's dollars. Led by Lloyd Axworthy from the federal side, this was the creative force behind housing renewal all over the inner city, The Forks, Portage Place, social programming and private investments from Air Canada, Investor's Group, Cadillac Fairview, small businesses everywhere, The program ended in 1991 and by 1994, The Forks was almost bankrupt. 

A new Winnipeg Development Agreement was made from 1996 to 2001 but it was city-wide and did not carry on with nearly as much money. At $75 million, it went fast and when support ended, some projects began to whither just like The Forks did in 1994 without money from some other revenue sources. From 2001 on most city councillors have been focused on massive infrastructure further and further away from centre of the city. 

Places like Portage Place and North Portage have been stuck. The mall owner doesn't want to invest too much because they can't make the margins that other malls make. And since they didn't own the land, there was far fewer reason to change the building to another function. True North has worked on several building projects both north and south of Portage Avenue. They have been working on indigenous partnerships as a business longer than many companies. They have also been able to leverage money from governments for projects and other private businesses have joined in on the efforts.

The last time North Portage was shown some love tens of millions was spent by other businesses and organization. The criticism of the mall ignores the hundreds of housing units built. It ignores the hotel built, Investors Group moving its headquarters there, the Free Press building being restored to government offices, IBM building offices, Winnipeg's first IMAX, Prairie Theatre Exchange and Air Canada offices. 

It is unlikely that True North will abandon if they take the reins. And they certainly won't transfer future revenue to The Forks like what has been happening since 1994. It will be interesting to see what happens from here but these are no carpetbaggers like the last bunch who came to town to fleece the taxpayers. The Chipmans and True North have added considerably to the employment, tax base and downtown since 2011.

Another Fire on Main Street

At 7 in the morning another building burned to the ground on Main Street. The apartment at 813 Main Street containing eight fully leased suites caught fire and one person was hospitalized. It is the fourth fire in two weeks around the area. The wreckage of Surplus Direct, Top Pro Flooring and Lord Selkirk Furniture is still seen in the next block over.

The fire could have been so much worse with a social housing tower next door. Smoke damage was limited but it had to be scary both for residents and for firefighters. The fire department and emergency workers were good at containing the fire but the total loss of yet another building is alarming. If it was arson like some other fires have been, we have to stop those who are doing it. Past experience has revealed that it is often now as isolated event. If the fire was something faulty, it also shows how dangerous some places are for containing and suppressing fires.

Local residents and firefighters lamented as more and more buildings that had apartments or working businesses are been burned down.  It could reach a point where land is empty for blocks and no one re-builds. In some cases, it already is. If business fear they can't rebuild lest they get burned down, the city and the province will have a worse crisis than they ever thought imaginable.

Manitoba Esports Presents - Canadian Esports Championship Series CECS Live!

Coming back for a second year but a new location, Manitoba Esports Presents - The Canadian Championship Series CECS Live! It will be the at the West End Cultural Centre on Ellice March 18 and 19, 2023. It will open at 11 AM Saturday and be a best of five Valorant series. It ends on Sunday with the championship game.

Sponsored by Encore Global, Shaw Spotlight and Red Bull and our artist and food vendors, CECS is the largest online and Large Area Network event in Manitoba and one of the biggest in Canada.

Tickets are available at manitobaesports.com and at the door starting at $15. Last event saw a lot of kids watching and playing Rocket League and other games on Switch.

Many volunteers will be present to assist players and young people both inside and outside the building and many parents will be present as usual.

Expect that the West End Cultural Centre to be a go to place in the future for computer and console gaming.
 

My Scooter in Japan

I lived in Japan from 1989 to 1992 in Tsuru City in Yamanashi prefecture west of Tokyo. Mt. Fuji stood between my prefecture and Tokyo. 

It was not a scooter drive from my home to Tokyo. By train, it was around two hours as distance from Fuji to Tokyo was 100 kilometers. Neither of the two scooters I owned could really go over 45 kms an hour. And you never knew which weather conditions you might ride in. It could easily rain on any given day. And the early sunset by 7 every day could mean a colder ride later on.

I used to take the train for two hours on Chuo Line from Shinjuku to Otsuki, Yamanashi and transfer to the expensive Fuji-kyu Line. My home in Tsuru was about 30 minutes from Otsuki. All of 1989 I walked or took train or bus. But my 1990, I felt the walk to my closest train station which was 30 minutes from my apartment just didn't cut it. The above picture shows Shinjuku which is a major downtown for the city and the highway and railways extend west to Mt. Fuji and around the right of it to Yamanashi prefecture. 

The main school I taught at was 20 or so minutes away from my apartment. I taught at another school in another town which entailed walking 30 minutes away to Yamura train station, travelling for 30 minutes by train to Kitafuji at the base of Mt. Fuji and walking 20 minutes to work. Luckily, a teacher drove me home any day I worked out of town. However, that did not happen immediately. So a commute twice a week could be over 2 hours long.

I didn't mind walking as it is a good way to get to know your area but two hours commuting for work is tough. Part of the problem was that my apartment was on the mountain beside Tsuru University. Brand new and with amenities, I really did well with it. And location-wise beside the university and full furnished was great. But it was 30 minutes walking to either rail station. The university was halfway between them. In 2004, they actually built a station five minutes from my apartment. Would have loved that.

Above, in Kofu with fellow travellers from around the world. Me in the middle. Think this is an instant of where I drove to Otsuki with the scooter and then train on JR line.

For those of you who ask what I didn't have a bike. The answer is I did. I was donated a bike which was functional and had poor brakes that I had to fix. This was after I soared down a mountain and into a rice patty. Once the brakes were fixed, I gave it another try and a few days later, while I stopped on a sidewalk with no curbs, I was hit by a young driver who was not looking and tossed over the car and my my bike was wiped out. My fellow teachers were convinced I must have been in the wrong because "you don't know Japanese roads."

There was some mumbled apologies from staff when a huge gift basket of various coffees arrived at the school along with a confession that the driver was on the wrong side of the road, had been stopped at a shop and drove off without looking and hit me. One teacher said they are probably grateful that as scraped up as I was and with a damaged bike, I didn't file a police report. I didn't even think to do so. However, it was last time I ever road a bike in Japan. It could be that the bike was just jinxed as I never again had a road issue save for a speeding ticket on my scooter returning from Kofu. It was quashed from a faulty reading. My scooter was not able to do the speed they said I was doing. I was told most Japanese would pay the ticket but I went in and made my argument and it turned out the machine was wrong.

By 1990, despite discouragement from my school, I went and got my Japanese driver's licence and purchased a 1984 Honda scooter. I didn't get an International driver's licence. Always managed to go the hard way but I got a Japanese one. No one said I couldn't so I did it. I bought my used scooter from a Tsuru dealership. Lots of students would have a scooter for three or four years at the university and would sell them so there was always a supply. I bought a helmet as well. The helmet was blue, the scooter was red. I loved that scooter.

No longer did I take the train to work twice a week. I drove my scooter which took about 30 minutes from home. I still walked quite a bit as I went to Tokyo nearly every other weekend and going to Shinjuku or Rappongi and other places could amount to 20,000 steps and lots of stairs. What I did differently though was to take my scooter to Otsuki on the main Japan Rail line thereby avoiding the expensive private Fuji-Kyu line that took me home.

Least you think that theft doesn't happen in Japan, I returned home from a trip to Tokyo and got off the train in Otsuki and went to the bike and scooter parking area and my scooter was stolen. I had to take last train home. I reported the theft to the police and my staff said I would likely never see again. I waited a week and no report so I went shopping for a new scooter and got myself a Yamaha Champ, a 1989 scooter. It has storage inside the seat for helmet. My last scooter had a place to lock my helmet to but since the scooter was stolen, I lost both. I bought a new helmet.

I was pretty pleased because I was fairly dependent on the scooter for work and social life. I was teaching businessmen and tutoring university students as well as my regular job. It entailed at least travelling a half hour to work and then socializing as you see in the picture above. The business owner wished more of his staff was conservational in English for customers. My Champ was was was maybe only a few kilometers faster but I loved it.

Three weeks later I got a call from the police. They had found my scooter and helmet. I expected it to be trashed but when I arrived the thieves had only peeled back some plastic and hotwired it. So now I had two scooters. Luckily, I was able to sell me older scooter to a student at  the university for a shade lower than what I bought it for and she loved it.

So I was back in business and able to commute to work, tutor and save time and money by going to the main rail line when going to Kofu or Tokyo. There was maybe only a handful of days where snow fell that I could not ride the scooter. And I had raincoat for the rainy season and a heavier leather jacket for when it was colder.

One thing to point out is that Japanese drive on opposite side of the road like the British. They have steering wheels on cars and trucks on right. The acceleration for motorbikes is the opposite side handlebar as well. I got used to pretty quickly but when travelling home and tired, I had to get used to North American left hand drive.

A very few of my colleagues who were in multiple schools had to have cars and an international driver's licence. I was the only one who got a Japanese licence and a scooter. One of the teacher colleagues from Britain had this tiny four seat car and we took a road trip to Osaka and stayed in a capsule hotel and had a blast.

I drove to Kofu a few times which was about an hour away and maybe 50 kms. Tokyo at 100 kms was possible but it would be 2 or 3 hours one on windy roads and tunnels. Even to Kofu was through tunnels. And they are scary and loud. I once walked back from Kofu because the trains stopped running. It can take 9 hours walking and that didn't scare me. The tunnels scared me. I actually had police pick me up in the tunnel and take me to Otsuki where I caught a taxi the rest of the way home. I never did that again. In more recent years there is now an alternative and safer walking route that avoids those tunnel for both walking and scooters. Would have loved that when I was there.

I have thought about a scooter in Winnipeg. The prices for buying them are higher, insurance is not terrible but shorter season of use and it is dangerous sharing roads with cars. Still, I'd love to have one again.

Windsor Hotel Evicts Residents

One of the major causes of homelessness in Winnipeg was the closure of so many hotels that were affordable to many. While those in the city called a large part of Main Street skid row and reviled the violence and alcoholism, most people had a place to stay and there were no encampments of people on the streets. There were also several temporary job offices up and down Main. Now there are only social agencies or parking lots of displaced people with no where to go.

One recent report said that Winnipeg has lost over 45,000 units of housing the last few years that were $750 and under. The province itself has closed social housing and sold off buildings and has watched landlords convert huge amount of housing into condos. The cumulative effect is a loss of the affordable spaces. Older housing stock is reaching a point where there needs to be massive renovations or outright replacement. A lot of times now, it is simply being abandoned, sold off or demolished.

City and provincial officials know there is a massive problem on housing and while it seems self evident, the best way to way to end homelessness is to make sure people don't lose their homes. The sale of the Windsor Hotel and the eviction of 20 people from the 46 units building makes it clear that new owners have something in mind for the site. It is quite possible that whatever is coming surpasses what is there now. But there is no way to know as no plan has been presented. It could be that the building is slated for a parking lot although the city would resist that.

The Windsor Hotel has a quite a history and for a while during the 1990s was enjoying a good second life. Built in 1903 at 187 Garry Street, it soon was converted to a hotel called La Claire Hotel in 1910. A gentlemen's club was established. Men's only licensed establishments were common. The only women allowed being staff. This existed till the 1980s in some older hotels, often with veterans of the war, I still remember the TV story on the last one going co-ed and the old guys looked fragile, even scared, but resigned that there were fewer of them around each year.

In 1930, the hotel went through extensive renovations and became The Windsor Hotel. And that is how it remained till 2023. In the 1990s, the bar attached had a renaissance and jazz was the tonic. As a popular jazz joint more renovations and an expansion was done to accommodate the influx of fans. It is uncertain what led to that decline. The closure of Lo Pub and the Royal Albert left the Windsor as a music mecca in 2013. Ten years later, it was a place where the police regularly visited for major crimes and the music died.

It is hard enough for artists to survive in the marketplace with how expensive it is to tour and costs of venues. A less expensive venue is awesome. An unsafe one will hurt as surely as an expensive one, Perhaps literally. And now it is too late for The Windsor Hotel. The evictions certainly look like the building will not survive. What will come of it is extremely important. A sad time for the place where Charlie Chaplin once stayed at back in Winnipeg's heyday.

Winnipeg Free Press Drops Dilbert

The comic strip Dilbert has been dropped after artist Scott Adams recorded a podcast in which he made anti-black comments in response to a poll linked to white supremacists.

While the artist said he was taken out of context and others said he was being absurd, it was hard to distinguish anything of the sort from his race-based comments. Even Elon Musk hasn't sought to defend the comments just his right to say them. However, every newspaper has a right to carry whatever comic strip they wish to carry as part of their right to free speech as well. And in this case, hundreds including the Free Press, no longer wish to associate with the artist and his work.

An editorial note will appear where the strip is starting on Tuesday, February 28, 2023.

It remains to be seen whether the Sun will pick up the strip.

Will Winnipeg Free Press Drop Scott Adam's Dilbert?

Hundreds of newspapers have dropped Scott Adam's Dilbert. The announcement came from Gannet and the USA Today group late afternoon Friday.  It was too late to stop the colour comics in most newspapers Saturday and Sunday in North America but many will not be running the strip as of Monday.

Scott Adams has increasingly taken aim at things politically both in his his strip and in commentary, including his YouTube contributions. Most cartoon artists have something in their art that can end up offending. Even beloved cartoon artists such as Dr. Seuss or Warner Bros. Looney Tunes have art or script now that would not make the cut now because it is offensive. Some might call it "woke" but "blackface" humour today is widely recognized as unacceptable. When Justin Trudeau dressed in blackface, he had some explaining to do, mostly saying he didn't intend to offend. However, his defence would not have been accepted had he said the critics were "woke." 

Humour has a full range of logic and emotion behind it, Stand-up comedy is today's equivalent of philosophy but with belly laughs. If it doesn't challenge, it falls flat. Still, there is a sense when humour moves towards hatred, bullying, intolerance, privilege and cruelty, it crosses a line And for the person behind the art to delve into anger, it hard to be part of their world.

This week on Scott Adam's YouTube broadcast, he is quoted as saying: 

“If nearly half of all Blacks are not OK with White people – according to this poll, not according to me, according to this poll – that’s a hate group,” Adams said Wednesday on his YouTube show “Real Coffee with Scott Adams.”

“I don’t want to have anything to do with them,” Adams added. “And I would say, based on the current way things are going, the best advice I would give to White people is to get the hell away from Black people, just get the f**k away … because there is no fixing this.”

The cartoonist has tried to explain that he is being cancelled because of his free speech and that no one can understand his message of don't be hateful. Scott Adams does not look deeply at the poll which the Anti-Defamation League says is linked to white supremacists which try to use certain polls to form a narrative of a race war.

Adams is smart enough to know one poll doesn't tell a full story. The context of the poll, when it was sent out, who it was sent out to, how was it sent out are important facts. This is why what he says can be only be regarded as reactionary and his rant on race divisive.

Numerous newspapers began dropping Adams last year when he was placing "woke" criticism in his comics. Some newspaper groups don't want any politics in their funnies. None. And many papers change things up. Adams was not the comic strip dropped. Most had nothing to do with politics but poor readership. 

The Winnipeg Free Press carries Dilbert. I can't recall when it first ran but the strip started in 1989. The newspaper has polled on items in the paper over the years including comic strips. Syndicated works from comics to advice columns are the hallmark of newspapers all over the world. How a newspaper chooses stuff is sometimes the purview of the editor but how are they to know sometimes what might appeal to younger readers or families or anyone really? You have to be able to assess and curating can be excellent but it helps to have some science behind the art.

In the case of Scott Adams, he is free to say what he wants but the Free Press has the right to carry what it wants. It would be surprising if they offer no commentary on this and run the strip like nothing has happened. Hopefully, someone high up the food chain where these decisions gets made offers some commentary that will say where the Free Press stands. I reached out to ask but have heard nothing back at this time. 

If they don't pay attention, I feel fairly confident they will hear from their readers on both sides of the issue. No matter what happens, the Free Press becomes the story within the story.

The Sun may editorialize and criticize the decision if the strip is dropped. They can certainly put their money with their mouth is and pick up the dropped strip. Either way, they will have to take a position just as any newspaper out there. In or out and why?

As for Adams, his net worth is estimated to be $70 million. He is 65 years old. He can complain about being cancelled but welcome to the club. There is no right of having shelf space in someone's life or newspaper or wherever. In every newspaper for as long as they have been published there is a line item that you can use if you no longer wish to have a newspaper. It is called Cancellation.

If people feel strongly about anything a newspaper does, they can cancel it. The Free Press should feel they have the same right when it comes to Dilbert. They may or may not on this but either way, it is a choice.

Russia - What Could Have Been

Between 1989 and 1991, the Soviet Union was collapsing. The wall game down, the Eastern Bloc were free to make their choices and it was chaotic and painful. The problem was that so much corruption exposed the rot and dysfunction underlying the whole system. The military went for a coup to overthrow Mikael Gorbachev and the Russian would not have it. Boris Yeltsin won the support of the people and Russia changed course. Gorbachev's position as President and Secretary General ceased to be by the end of 1991.

President Boris Yeltsin became the guy in charge of a country with the largest population in Europe but no longer with a Soviet Plan and real problems from a security and economic standpoint. The west was mostly interested in wrangling the nuclear weapons out of former Soviet republics and their solution for the economy was "shock therapy." Bolivia and Poland had gone through similar shocks.

Poland's moves to change their moribund and stalled economy started earlier and had more more planning behind it. Hyperinflation and shortages were in place already before reforms were enacted in 1989. There was terrible suffering but inflation started to come down slowly. And shortages ended swiftly as private enterprises brought in food and supplies. It took six years for Poland to reach its 1989 GDP levels and for the last 25 years they have achieved excellent growth and are members of both NATO and the European Union.

Poland is worth mentioning here because Russia could have had what Poland has now and more. Gorbachev's perestroika was gradualist and glasnost opened the door to the change that was needed to change Russia. But as the attempted coup showed, there were forces that Poland and China did not have to contend with that Gorbachev and Russia did. And it didn't help that the U.S. offered little support either with George H. W. Bush or Bill Clinton when Russia did go into shock therapy and plunged into Depression as deep the likes the world has seen. The cash for weapons deal that was agreed by the U.S. for Russia removing the nuclear threat barely kept Russia afloat.

Boris Yeltsin threw open the doors on Russia and hyperinflation exploded. Meanwhile the west was going from one major conflict to another; first Gulf War 1 and then into the Balkans as Yugoslavia broke up. There were also costly engagements in Somalia, failures in Rwanda and continuing military efforts in bombing Iraq military targets and terror cells in Sudan and Afghanistan for worldwide attacks on Americans at home and a abroad. The United States and the world were not paying near as much attention to Russia save for the ethnic dissident violence taking place in Chechinya. As many Russians suffered, the United States went into budget surplus by the late 1990s. Russia was selling off assets to insiders and creating billionaire oligarchs. Corruption and crime were rife. Once popular Yeltsin was now near zero support.

The failing health of Yeltsin and rising power of the oligarchs meant reforms were stymied by the revolving doors at prime minister and as power and wealth were controlled in fewer hands. The resource crash of the 1998 affected Russia greatly and only an International Money Fund injection of billions kept the country from collapse. By 1999, resources rebounded but Yeltsin ravaged by sickness turned to unknown Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer, to become prime minister.

Putin became engaged in combat with Chechens in Dagestan and bombs attacks in Russia attributed to Chechens. Some doubts not lie in regards to those attacks. Madeline Albright certainly felt she had seen no evidence that Chechens were bombing apartments. All Russian investigators ended up dead or arrested. This was a case where a false flag narrative appeared to re-enforce Putin as the defender of Russia. And gave him the excuse and support needed to start a second war with Chechnya.

Even Yeltsin seemed confident in Putin and resigned early and Putin became acting President in 1999. He went onto win the presidency of Russia in the next election and had held power as PM or president for near 25 years. A good deal of that success was based on a rise of resources and confiscating some oligarch's assets and removing any threat inside Russia to his power. Investment was made in schools and hospitals and people could see recovery in what had been an awful time for ten years.

Putin in every year he has been in charge of Russia has become more authoritarian. Any critic, any opposition gets removed through threat or violence. The last election in 2018 saw to it that he really was unchallenged. The trade off for most Russians is that the economy was still growing and if that was happening, it was best to stay quiet. Some were in full support as appealing to Russian nationalism often worked for Putin.

And the west was prepared to let Russia take a pass so long as it didn't involve direct conflict. Putin counted on that. For years he seethed about Russia's loss of domination of everything east of the Berlin wall and of clients states around the world. He wasn't a communist anymore, if ever was. His aspirations were for power. And in 2014, he took Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine and sanctions were insufficient to convince him that the west would ever stop his ambition. Even Olympic games just went on.

A year ago, Putin made the calculation that if Russia took the rest of Ukraine, no one would do anything about it...not even Ukraine...once it was occupied. After all, 2014 to 2022, he was able to annex Crimea and nothing happened. What he didn't count on was Ukraine fighting back and that his force would not be able to muster a lightning fast response. Keep in mind that Ukraine did this with western countries closing embassies and moving people out in the expectation that they county would fall. It didn't.

Then leader of Ukraine Zelensky shamed the west into action and galvanized his people into defending Ukraine. NATO and other nations dragged their feel about any military assistance but relented in the face of Russian brutality and Ukrainian resilience. A year is past and it appears Russia is planning a spring offensive. There hasn't been this type of heavy duty fighting since World War II. How it ends is hard to say. The Ukrainians are determined to kick Putin out once and for good and for Putin, only total victory might be acceptable for those who matter in Russia.

And to think, it could have all been so different starting way back in 1989 till now. This is why the case of Poland is still worth examining. While they are not perfect, it would be safe to say that they have embraced Europe and are a stalwart ally of the west. They have backslided on some democratic aspects of their post Eastern Bloc breakaway but then again, much of Europe is less liberal than it was.

Gorbachev's gradualist change for Russia was too slow compared to the social and economic struggles of the country. However, every move he made was constrained by those who wished no change. Give the literal shortages and the stranglehold the nation felt on any innovation, this was not a strategy that could go much longer. The Soviet Union could not continue an arms race and manage the Eastern Bloc and its own republics without collapse. Ultimately, Gorbachev chose to let the Eastern Bloc chart their own course.

Where things could have gone differently is if Gorbachev had codified the changes needed on taxes, banking, administration and a whole host of areas that Poland gave great thought to in 1989. The gradualist approach though didn't remove the command economy and had no real answers for the nearly 25% of the economy that was the military industrial complex. While Poland was one administrative area with nearly 98% ethnic Polish, the Soviet Union was multiple administrative areas, multiple ethnicities, multiple languages, nations within nations and Russia itself at the time had no administrative area just for itself.

From 1989 to 1991, Eastern Bloc countries were literally rewriting the books that were set since the end of the war. For East Germany, it was a reunification with West Germany that would have been near impossible without massive financial and structural changes from the wealthier German side. Poland and Czechoslovakia were not nearly as lucky but better planning and transfer of assets to the citizenry made for less painful and faster economic growth.

The utter corruption in the Soviet Union and Russia prevented any "Velvet Revolution" or short "shock therapy" from working as it did for others. The attempted coup in 1991 is but one violent example of the resistance. A for the next ten years there was a prolonged robbery by a kleptocracy of government and oligarchs. This collapse was not the west attempting to make a pauper of Russia. The United States, Canada and Europe were downsizing military involvement that was focused on Russia. Canada, for example, pulled all its forces out of Europe.

Putin's criticism of the west is that it was surrounded on all sides by enemies but that doesn't jibe with the fact that Russia was invited to the G8 and G20 is 1997 and 1998 respectively and was courted by France and Germany for expanded economic, social and political involvement in Europe.  The break-up of Yugoslavia was the source of growing tension mainly because of Russia's connection to Serbia.

Any hope of avoiding conflict in the region seemed fruitless. And keeping the status quo while other parts of eastern Europe were looing to grow their economies and allow for open elections was just not on. Russia, still crippled economically, was not able to help their Serbian allies save for blocking any type of United Nations action. And China was never going to support action because they still kept a military option open for Taiwan and would not support something that could bring consequences.

NATO involvement in the former Yugoslavia was to end fighting that was sending millions fleeing and killing tens of thousands of others. Canada alone took in 220,000 refugees from 1994-2000. Prior to that, economic collapse sent thousand to Canada as immigrants. Years of sitting on the sidelines by the west prolonged death and suffering by so many. Still, this was never an attack on Russia nor China although the Chinese embassy was hit in Belgrade resulting in three people being killed. The Chinese continue to say this was on purpose. One thing made clear was that the CIA was the instigator of the attack rather than NATO. And perhaps the point of their attack intelligence assistance by China to support Serbia was being done in the embassy. Debate on that still goes on today.

Keep in mind that one year later, after China was compensated for the deaths and made a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001, relations with the U.S. improved. But Russia and China were not happy with NATO's response to the former Yugoslavia because it showed that ethnic cleansing was just not in the cards and that eventually would lead to action. 

Today, Russia and China continue to be opposed to the west as both seek to disrupt democracies while asserting their own power and influence. The authoritarian rule of both countries depends on a narrative that western countries are a threat to national independence. The truth is that authoritarianism is a far worse threat to that. Democracy is not easy nor is rules-based relationships. In the absence of democracy, our safest and most reliable world-wide arrangement is a rules-based pattern of behaviour.

Even in democracies like Canada and the U.S,, breaking the rules happens. The January 6 riot to overturn the election in the U.S. is an example of that. But it bears repeating that the west is not looking to invade China or Russia. Putin digs back deep to World War II and the Russian Revolution in his criticisms of the U.S. and others. China often goes back to days long before the Communist Party took over when criticizing the west. The west can take the criticism but it doesn't mean attack is imminent. 

For a lot of the world outside Europe, the war in Ukraine is just another western war. Unless it is in their region, it is hard for them to see why to be involved.

Authoritarian rulers often use nationalism and security threats to control their people. Russia uses that to keep its people in line and to feed the war machine. The problem is that is that the population will not accept defeat from its leaders if drawn into a war that hurts them. Emptying out the prisons and mass deaths there doesn't hurt Russians. Further call ups of citizens will eventually hurt more.

This post though was about how things could have been different for Russia and still might be if the conflict stops. There wasn't anything dictating Vladimir Putin had no choice to act the way he did from 1999 till today. In fact, from 1991-1999, he and others could have made moves to make their countries better but he acted corruptly and took money. And the first thing he did was pardon himself. And doubled down on the corruption thereafter. 

Corruption is the poison that undermines representative government. Antidemocratic forces are ones that try to suppress voting, free speech, the judicial system, free press and any critics or monitors of government. It has happened in Canada, it certainly happened in the U.S. and still does. The strength of liberal democracy is that creates a rules bases system that allows people to be free but has recourse from the abuses of state and enterprise. In Russia, corruption has been going on so long that all that is left is authoritarian government. And strangely enough as Putin and oligarchs gorge themselves, they seethe about eastern Europe and former Soviet Republics.

NATO, the European Union and other world bodies are rules based organizations that Putin can't stand. These institutions were open to Russia but he only favoured ones that concentrated on trade like the WTO. As the world has come to understand the WTO is pretty powerless over brutal regimes.

After a year of war in Ukraine and longer if you go back to Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014, imagine a Russia inside NATO, a member of the European Union, trade partnerships over the world and as a democratic country. It would be the wealthiest country in Europe, be safe and secure in a European and NATO circle.

No nation is perfect but Russia is in trouble because its leadership is a kleptocracy and now because of belligerence, it has finally met resistance that likely leads to defeat for Putin. It could have gone so different.

514 Wellington Crescent Approved for Condos

The above rendering from Prairie Architects was approved by city council in Winnipeg this week. The house was demolished a few years ago. It sat empty a few years before that. Known as the Gordon House, I only knew it through my entire lifetime as the house of Senator Doug Everett. It was a fine house, on a fine road in a fine neighbourhood. However, the story on Wellington Crescent over the decades has been apartments and condos stretching out from Osborne Village all the way down the Assiniboine River. Even when a house is demolished as in the case with Munson Park or converted like the Fortune House, there has been a lot of debate. In the case of the Richardson house that made way for the park, I think there is wide agreement that this was a wise idea. And Fortune House stands as an icon even though there was a lot of whinging happening at the time that it was turning into a rooming house.

It would have been amazing if Gordon House could have been purchased by a single family that could have afforded the upkeep. Unfortunately though, the size and the cost of upgrades is massive even for the fabulously rich. The structure of the houses in Crescentwood are not something that younger families look for as much. Large empty dining rooms, lack of family entertainment rooms, kitchens that are too small and rigid structural walls are among the problems not easily corrected. And parking. Some families want lots of parking.

Crescentwood continues to have many well maintained homes but all of them are aging rapidly. Wellington Crescent was fairly unchangeable till the last decade but the amount of houses being demolished and re-built is quite large. Someone visiting after ten years away might not recognize it. The protests to put historic status on a number of houses does not always translate them being sold and preserved. And even if a single house is re-built on a property, there is likely going to be complaints regardless that it doesn't fit the neighbourhood.

I'll admit when I watched the house get torn down, it felt it was the end of an era. I can't say I know that the rendering is attractive or not. It resembles a design you might see in St. Norbert or St. Boniface in that it has a French chateau look. Nothing wrong with that. Developers when they build a neighbourhood tend to make them cookie-cutter for cost reasons and also that no one wants to stick out.  Diversity in style tends to take years if not decades. City and neigbourhood pressures to conform run strong. Change your grass to a garden and someone will disagree with it.

This fight over one property has been going on since 2016. There are a few other properties that have been nearly as long. The age of the houses and the complex nature of their upkeep and restoration can often mean economically it is better to start over. But that will never mean an identical house to the one that was there before. A builder and a family would find that the costs to replicate prohibitive. And many don't want fireplaces or dining rooms.

The four storey, eight unit and near 50 feet high new building has been approved. It is doubtful that this fight will be remembered in ten years from now. Wellington Crescent, at least in this section, is a major commuter and active transportation route. The residence should attract professional in their first home and retired people looking to downsize, A frequent issue (of a few in the Crescentwood and River Heights) is that older residents have to move right out of the area because there is nothing suitable for owners who downsize.

A more pressing need for the area is that lack of pharmacy or grocery nearby. The neighbourhood is truly car dependent. But other amenities like parks, schools and proximity to work are standouts. It is no wonder that people want to live on Wellington Crescent. Expect a few more battles along the street in the area from Grosvenor to Kingsway.

With the expectation of 20,000 people a year moving to Manitoba for the next several years, here is a passing thought. If density cannot be changed in the area of places like River Heights or Crescentwood, it will result in more people racing through the neighbourhoods to get to further suburbs. It is already happening. Taking several years to decide on properties could result in them just being abandoned. Depending on rich people to rehabilitate and occupy old housing stock is just not in the cards.