Six British Prime Ministers in Seven Years

It seems difficult to think of Britain as a stable place when yet another prime minister resigns two years into their government. Sir Keir Starmer joins a growing list of prime ministers who could not govern. The Labour leader was thought to be a tonic to the chaos of the Conservatives who were still reeling in the aftermath of Covid as well Brexit. The British economy has not been the same since breaking with the European Union.

Britain has had a long history of Game of Thrones tussles. The Reform Party, who are growing in elected members, are peeling off people who feel displaced and are motivated by that. It has led to boisterous protests. There has been violence at times. In Canada, governing parties usually get two tern between 8 to 10 years in length before they run out of steam. This applies to both provinces and federal governments. It is rare to get a third term. Only the exceptional campaigner and popular politician can do it. It also helps to have a weak and embattled opposition.

Starmer had a landslide two years ago only to score on his own goal repeatedly. Picking an ambassador to the U.S. linked to Epstein as well as financial shenanigans likely took him down in the polls in trust. Having Trump in office and the prickly relationship hurt Starmer in a way it didn't hurt Trudeau or Carney.

In the months after Trump was re-elected, support for Trudeau actually went up. However, the die was cast and his own Liberal party, was looking to someone who might be able to get a deal with the U.S. or at the least, have a plan to broaden the economy. To that end, the Liberals turned to Mark Carney and his support has not been this high for a leader in many a year.

I think the economy following Brexit and Covid has dragged Britain down quite a bit. In Canada, the reaction to the convoy of protestors was more negative towards them than supportive. There were a variety of parties in power at the provincial level when Covid hit. It is hard blaming any one of them without hurting your own party. Ontario has the same Premier Doug Ford because he seems to know how to navigate the tough times and has collaborated with the federal government to the benefit of his province.

What hurt Starmer was probably not making decisive actions early and the ones he did have haunted him like the ambassadorship. The staff in his office were very much needed to vette appointments, manage the party and set up a vision that was achievable and could help the people who had given them a mandate. The resignation today of Starmer is an awful result for a party 14 years out of office. The victory they had two years ago was the biggest win for Labour in decades.

Starmer ought to have known to avoid some of the pitfalls ahead of him. Free event tickets are never really free and the very active media are going to always ask how you got then. Starmer and his ministers ought to have known on free Taylor Swift tickets. Or free glasses or clothes or whatever. None of those things by themselves defeat you. It is the accumulation. And the appointing of an ambassador with such questionable ties. 

I think what made his own party mad enough was not picking a direction and committing to it. He didn't make the case for cuts to in budget to leverage an economic jump, he didn't look to reform tax across the board, he didn't look at defence needs or establish a response to growing Russian threats. Instead, he and his party reacted slowly and befuddled to crime stories, suffering and stagnant economy stories and in total confusion to Trump. It isn't like Carney hasn't had problems like this in Canada. However, he has acted quickly and on things like defence whereas Trudeau said Canada would never reach 2% of GDP on spending even though it has committed to it. Likewise, Trudeau committed to carbon pricing without it showing it brought down emissions or was able to meet Canada's energy needs.

As mentioned previously here, Canada doesn't have an age problem in politics like many nations. We generally have a time limit in our heads of two terms. An exceptional leader or political party that renew itself can extend that time. The Liberals did this by changing leaders and shifting. The Canadian public showed a willingness to do this. And the Liberals won an election and later a majority as a result. Perhaps Carney trips up and faces the same timeline as Starmer for popularity.

Canadian can only look on in shock at the revolving door at the Game of Thrones in the UK. We just don't have this type of turnover. And while we could have two provinces vote on separation, there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for it if the polls are to be believed. In some ways, there has been more unity than we have seen in some time. Part of it is as a result of Trump, some is sport such as World Cup and Olympics and some could be a sense of common purpose.

A leader appears to be in waiting in Britain. Perhaps that helps Labour find a direction without heading to an election. The biggest momentum in recent years has been Reform Party which seems committed to a rupture in the status quo. It remains to be seen whether the UK really wants that. Perhaps this summer the country will finally find the stability it has lacked for years.