I have already written here that I believe that Poilievre will win the election and within his first year, I believe he will cut the carbon tax, pull out of international agreements on climate and cut federal environment engagement in favour of the provinces. I don't believe there will be controversy on lowering the gas tax. NDP governments including in Manitoba have lowered the tax to great popularity. With Trump as president in the U.S., there is likely not going to be any free passes.
Defense policy out of Poilievre's camp seems under developed. This should be of no surprise because the Harper government which Poilievre was part of only spent 0.8 of GDP on defence. That is 47% lower than todays Trudeau government. This is increasingly not being accepted by NATO and especially by Trump. There has has been extreme pressure on Trudeau. It will be no less on Poilievre. Will he support NORAD or NATO? Will he have an answer for Trump when penalties for poor defence spending? As much as Poilievre might want to blame Trudeau, he will have to have some coherent policy here. If the policy is isolation, expect Canada to withdraw in some fashion from alliances. There are certainly some isolationists in the party that want to pull out of the U.N. and other groups. What does it all mean? It means they will have to choose a direction that someone in the party won't like. The Liberals have been doing the same thing for the last several years.
Poilievre mentioned a few potential cabinet ministers. It is fairly weak tea. But then it doesn't matter. All that matters is the Prime Minister's Office. If his party is as weak as the Liberals they won't say a thing as long as he has the polls. Unlike other Commonwealth countries, it is impossible to remove the leaders of parties here. It is how we have set it up. It is a leader-centric party and will cause issues for the Conservatives just as it has with the Liberals. Just as it has for every party with all an all powerful leader and weak cabinet and caucus.
A tough on crime stance was made but no real indication of how that happens. There is no policy, timetable or budget listed for it. Is it more police, change in the parole act, build more prisons or what? Is there a budget for it? Timetable?
The problem with just a long interview with Jordan Peterson is that he is not a journalist. This is a campaign ad. However, given the deep misgivings towards the Liberals, it is possible that the Conservatives don't have to engage any media for the entire election. It has been often said that elections are no places to talk about policy. Perhaps the Conservatives win a massive majority with few details. The danger of this is that is not necessarily an affirmation for that all the party wants to do. Massive majorities in Canada often come from 39% of the vote. That is hardly a ringing endorsement. It is a reason why the Liberals have seen support fall in every year since 2017.
The large majorities Mulroney and Harper got had a far greater amount of policy that was thought out that what we have seen here. Given that Trump is not likely to give the Canadian government a lot of time to develop a coherent plan, expect chaos. And while the Conservatives will blame the Liberals, it is going to be hard to say that over and over again for four years if the country truly suffers. Given the lack of a plan so far, we could be in trouble no matter who wins.
Those hoping for the NDP to breakthrough will find they still don't have strength in Quebec and don't really have a defence policy. The agreement they had with Liberals means they are weaker, not stronger. Those that are in opposition to the Liberals just lump the NDP in there with them. If any party gains strength it is the BQ who look to have another referendum on separation in 2026. It is curious what the Conservative response to that might be. So far there is none.
While the Conservatives under Poilievre seem destined to win in the new year, they don't seem the least temperate in their disposition. We can expect a lot of ripping stuff up like the CBC. However, we can likely see unexpected outcomes as a result. For example, while Conservatives like hockey, their moves on broadcasting might make fewer Canadians have access to it. Unintended consequences.
The mistake in believing your own publicity is that if it is not based on solid policies. And to stay in power, it requires a frequent refreshing of people and idea. This is something the Liberals and the Conservatives don't seem to learn. We have been leaning on cult of personality too long and it is hurting the country.
No comments:
Post a Comment