Canada, the 51st State?

Canada isn't the only place where Donald Trump has expressed American Manifest Destiny. He has set his aim at Panama and Greenland as well. The Panamanian and Danish leaders have rebuffed the overtures. It isn't entirely sure whether it is to get concessions or to actually lay claim to other parts of the world. The thing is that when a president asks his intelligence services or military to do something, they just might actually do it.

There are constitutional mechanisms in both the U.S. and Canada for major changes such as this. Hawaii and Alaska became states in 1959. Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico have been waiting statehood for decades. The U.S. continues to have territories all over the planet but there has not been a big push to add more states or even sub-divide the big states like California.

One major consideration for America is balance of power. Republican party members might only be interested if they felt new states would not automatically be Democratic. This, in part, has held up Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico from statehood. For D.C., there many be grounds based on intent of founding fathers but for Puerto Rico, the reluctance could be the balance of power argument. It is a possible fear that the state would lean to the Democratic party. In other words, Republicans would want another state added that would lean the other way.

This is possibly the biggest argument from the American side about that would prevent Canada from becoming a state. It is the fear that it would be a possible shift in American electoral balance with both senators and a passel of representatives being Democrat. Some senators last week suggested Canada be broken up into two as if western Canada or just Alberta alone would be a sure bet Republican.

No province can separate from Canada. The Clarity Act makes it clear what needs to be done. To even vote on it requires a clear question and negotiation. It cannot be a unilateral decision despite what some separatist leaders have said. It also is worth noting that if Canada is divisible so are the provinces. Arguing that provincial territory is inviolable rings hollow for those looking to separate a province from Canada. 

Trump continues to say Canada should be part of the U.S. but never says how he goes about that. It could all been jibes and negotiating tactics. Canadian TV investor Kevin O'Leary says he wants to meet Trump to discuss economic union or even the 51st state. He says they will meet at Mar-a-Lago. Perhaps they think a new Conservative Conservative will embrace this in Canada.

The Parti Quebecois leads the polls in Quebec for 15 points. The provincial Liberals don't even have a leader. The next election is in 2026 but the CAQ leader will in his late 60s by then and might look quite old compared to the PQ. If there is a federal Conservative government, do they even care if Quebec separates? Does Trump play hardball and say the dairy marketing board end if they separate and ask for a trade deal? Does Alberta try to separate and join U.S. as a state?

The question of what Pierre Poilievre does to respond to Trump could be an huge election issue. It is likely why he is desperate to have the election now before Trump can act as President. It may be hard to explain how flaccid his response is if Trump starts calling him names and slapping tariffs on a government under his Conservatives. 

Would Poilievre stand up for Canada if provinces were trying to separate or would he facilitate it and the chaos that might result.  The level of disruption in the next year could be substantial and it is not really clear who stands up for Canada. Will Canadians do it if politicians don't? 

I do believe overall that Canada will do well into 2025 but it could all be overturned by world instability. And the country being threatened with separation or turning into a state is as fraught with uncertainty as you can get in our history.