The Sandbaggers on Tubi

A few years ago I mentioned the the BBC's Sandbaggers has been one of the best spy series ever to air on TV. It might come as a surprise to some that the series preceded the BBC/PBS series Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by a year. Like Tinker, it had a creator linked to MI-6 or SIS, the foreign intelligence service. From 1978 to 1980 the series was on British TV and did appear on CBC. However, while I remember Tinker and watching it with family on PBS, I don't recall seeing Sandbaggers. I was in junior high and it might have been on later that I would normally be up during the week. This was often true of the original Hawaii Five-O that was on later than I'd be up.

The 1970s were the days when the national news programs of CTV and CBC were at 11 PM. Networks liked to put in programming in the 10 PM slot in central time or later that might not fit in the prime time schedule. No one had 24 hour TV back then including the stations down in North Dakota. The CBC would often squeeze in shows like Fawlty Towers and Sandbaggers at end of day schedule. I know I missed both when they aired on CBC but by early 1980s Fawlty Towers was endless played on PBS. It would take years before I'd catch The Sandbaggers to watch in it's entirety. Prairie Public Television carried a lot of British TV but they were often comedies and dramas. That remains true today.

Tubi has got the Sandbaggers on now which is rather amazing since it will bring a whole new audience to the show.  Some find their way to show by following the work some of the actors did through the 1970s and 1980s. This is very much the case for Roy Marsden who gained fans on both sides of the Atlantic for the P.D. James series Dalgliesh. Many loved his cool performance as a detective. And if they liked that, they searched out and loved his acting in Sandbagger as director of operations for SIS.

The writing of Ian Mackintosh was exceptional and nuanced. His background as a naval officer had served him well as a writer on the BBC series Warship. However, it was rumoured he had experience with the Security Intelligence Service as well. This contributed to the sense of realism. Any variance from the actual SIS was probably to avoid running into the Official Secrets Act. In fact one episode was torpedoed because of the act.

The series was filmed in Leeds and some location work in London and Malta. The large population of Leeds made it possible to film many locations as eastern European. Casting was also done in such a matter that scenes felt authentic. The budget for The Sandbaggers was not huge. The studio work was shot on videotape and location on cheaper 16 mm film. A lot of stock footage was used to great effect. It is striking that filming took place inside McDonald's or featured Hilton Hotels. Such things seem less likely nowadays. It seems to provide a time capsule of what Britain was like in the late 1970s/80s.

In 1978,  the time of Britain's Winter of Discontent weighed heavy. Massive strikes were happening all over and the Labour government of James Callaghan struggled to keep the country going. Strikes even shut down Sandbaggers producer Yorkshire Television. Even the BBC was shut down by the end of the year. Shows about corrupt and violent police were more likely to be seen in the UK over an urbane and realistic spy series. James Bond series and The Saint were more likely to be seen than The Spy that Came Out of the Cold- type of series.

The Sandbaggers name was used for the Special Operations Section of the SIS consisting of three operatives who take on the most dangerous or politically sensitive assignments around the world. The term came from how thugs would fill socks with sand to beat someone for their goods. Neil Burnside was D-Ops and responsible for sending Sandbaggers 1 through 3 out on jobs. As former Sandbagger 1, Burnside knew what it took. Burnside reports to the Deputy Chief and Chief of SIS (known as C) and is often in conversation with the Permanent Undersecretary of the  Foreign Office Sir Geoffrey Wellingham, his former father-in-law.

For non British watching, they often miss the class visuals. Ties that indicate Oxford colleges or military background abound. Top administrators are often knights with the title Sir added to their name. The Deputy Chief Peele seems to aspire to that type of recognition. 

The Sandbaggers themselves such as Willie Caine and Laura Dickens seems to come from more common folk. Caine has a military background but not particularly fond of guns. Dickens wants to serve her country as an intelligence analyst but in her introduction shows her deliberately overturning a car to make a contact with the son of a foreign leader. Her relationship with Burnside ends tragically when under his orders she is shot in a prisoner exchange to prevent the French from interfering with the special relationship with the U.S. government.

It is the sad and singular life that Burnside lives. A dedicated intelligence service man, divorced and with no outside interests. His best friends are the CIA station Jeff Ross chief and his Sandbagger 1 Willie Caine. He resists pretty much any attempt to set him up with a date. And the one person he does form affection for he has to order to be shot. It is likely we have never seen this type of storyline before on TV and may never see again.

Some have called Sandbaggers the best spy show there ever has been. Since I enjoy many spy TV/movies like James Bond and Tinker Tailor, I wouldn't want to limit myself. I can say that many probably enjoy the show so much is because the characters are very well developed. The friendship between the intelligence officers, especially SIS and CIA, seems sincere and authentic.

The show ended suddenly with the death of the producer/writer Ian Mackintosh in a small plane crash in Alaska. The network didn't believe anyone else could write the show like he could. A lot of mystery surrounded the death of the show and some even wondered if it was related to espionage. 

Sadly, unlike other shows that the British have done, the Sandbaggers has never been set for a sequel, remake or anything of the like. This is a mystery since so many American shows or productions from other countries seem to be re-made. If Matlock can come back, why not Sandbaggers?

Watch while you can on Tubi.

Peavy Mart Closes All Stores in Canada, Two in Winnipeg

Peavy Mart started in Winnipeg in 1967. It presently has five stores in Manitoba, two in Winnipeg. The company head office is now in Red Deer along with their flagship location. All this year they have been struggling and it looks like this week it ends. The 22 stores announced for closure so far will not be enough. The entire company will shut down.

The National Grain Company of Minneapolis  set up National Farmways, a "super farm market" based in Winnipeg with their first store in Dawson Creek. In 1975 the company became Peavy Mart, a subsidiary of Peavy in Minneapolis. In 1984, the company was bought by Canadian owners and remained as such till 2025.

The Peavy Marts in Winnipeg were former Zellers locations on Pembina Highway and Nairn. They are a mix of farm supply and do it yourself shop. They had grown in size in company by taking over TSC stores a few years back and their association with Ace Hardware.

It would be appear that the association has failed and the expansion has left them with underperforming stores. It will be saw for the Winnipeg locations but the pain will be felt a lot harder in many of the rural locations where stores are closing.

Tubi Finds New Fans in Canada

It is hard to imagine that Tubi is more than a decade old launching in 2014. During that time, it has tried to ensure that it is part of what comes installed or connected to any digital device from phones to televisions to computers. Netflix had no real competition when it launched in 2007 and they certainly were not alarmed by Tubi. The major studios were content to distribute series and films to Netflix and most of them were only in the concept plan for their own streaming services. Tubi was given less desirable option to distribute and had no big budget to produce their own works of substance.

Most of the studios still regarded streaming as something like  saw with YouTube which started in 2005. They thought of it as poor quality home videos or pirate material from their own shows. Even Google acquiring YouTube didn't make TV networks and studios think they'd be supplanted by future cord cutters. Netflix was a form of distribution they had established with the company with DVD being mailed out so when streaming started to emerge, they were at least working with a group they knew.

Technology had to catch up. Smart phones were still not around, high definition television and high speed Internet were a few years away. If there was one industry that was going all in on digital, it was the adult industry and it was Canada that was a leader in that field. In 2007, many of the major studios cooperated and created Hulu so that people would have a place to go to watch recently aired TV episodes. In 2025, Hulu has been largely swallowed into Disney. Content deals still exist with many other studios though. This is probably because the federal government would intervene if competition suffered. Already Disney has absorbed a major studio.

Some of the major streamers have dropped series and movies even when they were the original producer. It always catches fans by surprise because the expectation is that shows will always be there. This is the catch when it comes to digital media. In the past, you could always count on a media such that you physically possessed. When it came to rentals in the VHS/Beta and DVD days, there were a lot of variation from store to store. Some like Blockbuster would have all the hits in quantities and then sell them off over the weeks. They would have some regular popular item that would fill out the store. Some rental places like Movie Village would have a wide variety of material from British movies to every Oscar winner they could get their hands on.

Today streaming services are like those days of video stores. Netflix has all the hits but creates content based on internal data that will tell them which star and which genre will generate interest in subscribers and keeping subscribers. And now with commercials revenue has climbed even as Netflix grows more popular. They have announced their fees are up again despite the profits. The best guess why fees are going up is that Netflix is going after more live sports and will need the money to beat competitors.

One of the reasons cable was so popular was because news, shows, sports and everything in between was on there. For Canadians, it was cable that gave us ever more insight and interest in the U.S. And if polls are any indication, bigger supporters of Canada being different. In Canada we don't really have homegrown streaming services save for CBC's Gem. It has very light offerings on Canadian and international fare and is free. Each network has a streaming version of their service. There is Crave which a premium subscription service that has HBO. 

Canadian material is on all services. However, there is nothing to compel U.S. services to place Canadian content on their platform. It certainly put TV and radio stations at a disadvantage in Canada. Laws are going into effect that would work to change that. However, the election in the U.S. has put pressure on change to laws in this regard. Also, a future election in Canada could see the end of the CBC and Gem. It could see the end of all Canadian TV, radio and newspapers. There just seems so little interest in keeping them going.

There are a lot of unknowns. All this brings us back to Tubi. It has been around a fairly long time. From time to time, many of us have checked in because it was free. Likely, the first feeling people might have had was that there wasn't anything current. It's true. If you are looking for the latest TV series or movie, you won't find it here. Famous series like Fast and Furious and Mission Impossible won't likely be found here. However, what will be found here is increasingly surprising. There is a lot of independent film and horrors. A ton of kids programming. 

Original material is being produced and has been since 2021, a year after the purchase by FOX in 2020 for $440 millions. Other FOX subsidiaries that produce animation and documentaries have found a home on Tubi. And now Tubi produces its own animation, documentaries, genre series and movies. It even has a regular talk show. The quality keeps rising. FOX doesn't use the channel for repeats of its popular series like Simpsons but they have sufficient product elsewhere that they can add.

Tubi has recently received offers of $2 billion to FOX to buy the company. Although they have sold 20th Century FOX studio to Disney, they seemed disinclined to sell their free streaming service. With the huge value increase, it should surprise no one. Tubi has also signed deals with major networks worldwide and other Hollywood studios. The only one not included it seems is Disney. Not that it matters, Tubi has now got a library easily the largest of any studio out there. At last count around 40,000 items to watch.

In Canada, Tubi is available everywhere and Shaw/Rogers distributed it to even further places. While Netflix continues to produce some of the better stuff out there and has some of the most popular series and movies that have recently come out, it is a pay service while Tubi remains free. 

Tubi, like a lot of streamers, is getting into sports. For big events, they often have the repeat of it about a half hour after it has aired. In some cases Fox Sports broadcasts the games they cover on Tubi. This isn't unlike Gem in Canada that often puts CBC sports events that can't be shown on main network such as Olympics on Gem. Canada is a separate market though so some games are blacked out in favour of the Canadian broadcaster.

The biggest coup for Tubi is that they have landed the Super Bowl and will be airing the FOX broadcast. They will be even having their own pre-game show. It is unclear whether the game on Tubi will be blacked out. CTV/TSN own the NFL rights. When this happens, Amazon and Netflix games appear on CTV. In any event, it is a huge new move for Tubi.

The amount of material available on Tubi today has likely taken it to a level where ads can sustain it as long as they don't seek to do what the big studios do which is spend hundreds of millions on original work or sports. Many producers in the world now have a platform to get their work seen if some of the majors drop them or don't even consider their productions.

The CBC, CTV and Global only seem interested in their apps and distributing a limited number of productions that are not their own. They are not terrible but they are so limited in what they license. And there are aspirations to go world-wide like BritBox, the BBC service has done. Crave TV is a premium streamer and HBO material often drives its subscriptions.

There is nothing Tubi in Canada. And Tubi distinguishes itself in the U.S. as well.  For those who long for the days of the video store with staff recommendations and discovery walking down an aisle, this is the streamer for you. In this case, the walking is with your clicker. And perhaps you hum the Toooo Beee...Tubi opening tune much more often. And what's best, unlike Netflix, you can watch free with ads.

Pony Corral to Close at Grant Park

Pony Corral Grant Park has had a long run of 28 years but the restaurant that took over the spot of the former Bombay Bicycle Club in 1997 could not get improvements on their leased property to continued on. The classic cars shows that ran on the property will move to their owned and operated location on Nairn. They also have their location on Pembina Highway.

For restaurant starved people of River Heights and Fort Rouge and for those wishing for a bite before or after a movie, for those wanting live music or to enjoy the classic cars on Sunday Cruise Nights, the Pony was the place to go. The Ginakes family have always staked a huge contributing effort into wrestling, classic cars and live music and it has been bestowed a love that comes from people gathering, eating and enjoying each other's company.

When the Pony Coral first moved into the corner restaurant, it shared the lot with Zellers. Then Walmart. Then Zellers again. Then Target. Then Goodlife Fitness and Canadian Tire. It seemed the only consistent thing was the Pony Coral. The Grant Park Mall has gone through a lot of changes.

The last time there was a major renovation of the restaurant was under the Bombay Bicycle Club in 1984 when they added space and re-did the interior and exterior. Before that it was Barnacle Pete's, a seafood restaurant. Even back then, the restaurant needed plumbing and sewer work and apparently still does. Today, it is need of roof repairs.

From 2000 to 2020, Pony Corral operated a restaurant downtown at 444 St. Marys Avenue in a former Keg location. The intention was to build on Donald Street but Covid put a damper on that. Oddly enough, it is The Keg that is building a Donald Street location.

There will be many people sad to see Pony Corral leave the Grant Park area. There will certainly be concern about how Sunday Cruise Night will be affected. Portage Avenue has been the site of cars cruising and while Grant Park is not super closer, it is closer than Pembina or Nairn locations. However, given the issues of cruising on Portage in recent years, perhaps a change will be good.

The restaurant business has always been a tough one but there have been a lot of closings so far. Rent is too high in some cases, restaurants are downsizing and patrons are not going out as late as they did pre-Covid. Even big national chains are still not back to full lunch service as were five years ago.

It is hard to imagine a restaurant that served so much of the community in a variety of ways besides besides serving food. They will be missed for sure. And it will be curious what comes next. It could be that only a national group like Earls or Joeys can afford that corner.

Ricki's, Cleo and Bootlegger go Bankrupt

The long history of Ricki's in Winnipeg comes to an end as the national company has declared bankruptcy. Founded in 1939 in Brandon, it spread out across Canada and in recent years has been owned by Winnipeg Free Press owners Ronald Stern and Bob Silver. Part of the holdings in the same company called Comark are Bootlegger and Cleo.

Cleo had just built a new concept store in Polo Park in the fall. Formerly Irene Hill, Cleo became part of Comark in 1979. Bootlegger was founded in 1971 in Vancouver and became a national chain. Comark itself was founded in 1976 and is based in Vancouver where Ronald Stern, former Winnipegger, now calls home. However, the combined company used Winnipeg as a logistics hub in the former McLeod's warehouse on McGillivary.  It has around 200 employees and is about 400,000 square feet. It is unclear what happens to Parian Logistics, the company that manages that hub and is also owned by Stern and Silver.

Together all three stores have 221 locations across Canada. There are 13 stores in Manitoba with ten in Winnipeg and with three in Brandon. Some industry people have speculated how fast fashion online from a number of companies has hurt mall stores like Ricki's and Cleo. Creditors believe they can salvage some of Bootlegger. And this might be because everyone could use blue jeans. There seems to be less dressing up by women because of the expense and perhaps because some items are just not as versatile.

Retail is in flux all over the world and malls are particularly having to adapt. It is why malls are looking to build housing and actually have other services asides from fashion stores. Even Kildonan Place sees that they need for an upgraded food court.

In Winnipeg so far, stores like Polo Park and St. Vital have done mostly a good job of filling in places that have vacated spots. The second floor of Polo Park will see a new London Drugs which will fill space in an area that has often had a few vacancies. If women's fashion stores won't fill spaces, I expect we see more day spa, gyms, nail salons and optical stores. And this is always a good opportunity for Winnipeg-based businesses to occupy mall space. It is sad to see Canadian businesses in retail go bankrupt but hopefully, the retail sector will be more diverse and resilient as a result.

Five Guys Restaurant Portage Avenue Closed for Remodelling

The website says they are open but outside the doors of their Westwood Portage Avenue location there are two containers. All Sunday they were loaded up and the nothing remains inside. The restaurant was closed. Permanently? Apparently, a sigh is up saying they are remodeling. 

They opened at Westwood in 2014 and seems like they will be around longer.

 

Costco To Expand Footprint in West Winnipeg

As with IKEA when it began construction years ago, company execs of Costco have figured the space they are building for their store near Assiniboia Downs is not big enough. It isn't. At 166,000 square feet, it isn't so much the store size but the loading area and parking lot. It appears another acre just north of the Costco is being made available for the store.

Adding parking space is nothing new. Costco Kenaston has had parking space added twice front and back. It has helped but not enough. Hence, the new store. Compound the possible issues when St. James Costco becomes a Costco Business Centre. The store will be more aimed at supply hotels, convenience stores and restaurants than family shoppers. It surely means family shoppers will head to Kenaston or Headingley.

Make no mistake a Business Centre fills a need and could help divert businesses to switch there for goods that they get at regular Costcos. However, the city likely needs four regular Costcos all with gas stations. We'll have to do with three as zoning for a Costco even where there there is space can take a decade to get. This will be for Costco to decide. They probably would like to be just outside of Winnipeg but Walmart has tried this. It depends on Winnipeg road access and most municipalities are are not willing to build the highway access to make it possible. And Winnipeg is not going to let a road be overused within city boundaries to service a Costco that doesn't make taxes in the city to maintain it.

For all these reasons Costco is looking to turn the west Portage Avenue location into the right size to serve a very large section of the city. They'll need a lot of parking. More than the 900 parking spaces have been listed this far. They'll need traffic lights and turning lanes for this massive amount of traffic.

And Costco is just the first part of a much larger commercial development in that area. It is still within Winnipeg's boundary so it will be a boon for taxation. It will also be huge for housing. What will be needed is bus transport. The Costco construction continues so expect to see it open in this year.

The Jordan Peterson Interview of Pierre Poilievre

It has been seen by over 30 million as the world-wide conservative movement looks to see Pierre Poilievre become prime minister of Canada. Even Poilievre is trying to lower expectations because they are so high right now and that some are hoping he wins every single seat in Canada and that change is instantaneous. This can be a dangerous time since he will possibly have the majority to push through whatever he wants quickly but will the results be just as quick?

I have already written here that I believe that Poilievre will win the election and within his first year, I believe he will cut the carbon tax, pull out of international agreements on climate and cut federal environment engagement in favour of the provinces. I don't believe there will be controversy on lowering the gas tax. NDP governments including in Manitoba have lowered the tax to great popularity. With Trump as president in the U.S., there is likely not going to be any free passes.

Defense policy out of Poilievre's camp seems under developed. This should be of no surprise because the Harper government which Poilievre was part of only spent 0.8 of GDP on defence. That is 47% lower than todays Trudeau government. This is increasingly not being accepted by NATO and especially by Trump. There has has been extreme pressure on Trudeau. It will be no less on Poilievre. Will he support NORAD or NATO? Will he have an answer for Trump when penalties for poor defence spending? As much as Poilievre might want to blame Trudeau, he will have to have some coherent policy here. If the policy is isolation, expect Canada to withdraw in some fashion from alliances. There are certainly some isolationists in the party that want to pull out of the U.N. and other groups. What does it all mean? It means they will have to choose a direction that someone in the party won't like. The Liberals have been doing the same thing for the last several years.

Poilievre mentioned a few potential cabinet ministers. It is fairly weak tea. But then it doesn't matter. All that matters is the Prime Minister's Office. If his party is as weak as the Liberals they won't say a thing as long as he has the polls. Unlike other Commonwealth countries, it is impossible to remove the leaders of parties here. It is how we have set it up. It is a leader-centric party and will cause issues for the Conservatives just as it has with the Liberals. Just as it has for every party with all an all powerful leader and weak cabinet and caucus.

A tough on crime stance was made but no real indication of how that happens. There is no policy, timetable or budget listed for it. Is it more police, change in the parole act, build more prisons or what? Is there a budget for it? Timetable?

The problem with just a long interview with Jordan Peterson is that he is not a journalist. This is a campaign ad. However, given the deep misgivings towards the Liberals, it is possible that the Conservatives don't have to engage any media for the entire election. It has been often said that elections are no places to talk about policy. Perhaps the Conservatives win a massive majority with few details. The danger of this is that is not necessarily an affirmation for that all the party wants to do. Massive majorities in Canada often come from 39% of the vote. That is hardly a ringing endorsement. It is a reason why the Liberals have seen support fall in every year since 2017.

The large majorities Mulroney and Harper got had a far greater amount of policy that was thought out that what we have seen here. Given that Trump is not likely to give the Canadian government a lot of time to develop a coherent plan, expect chaos. And while the Conservatives will blame the Liberals, it is going to be hard to say that over and over again for four years if the country truly suffers. Given the lack of a plan so far, we could be in trouble no matter who wins.

Those hoping for the NDP to breakthrough will find they still don't have strength in Quebec and don't really have a defence policy. The agreement they had with Liberals means they are weaker, not stronger. Those that are in opposition to the Liberals just lump the NDP in there with them. If any party gains strength it is the BQ who look to have another referendum on separation in 2026. It is curious what the Conservative response to that might be. So far there is none.

While the Conservatives under Poilievre seem destined to win in the new year, they don't seem the least temperate in their disposition. We can expect a lot of ripping stuff up like the CBC. However, we can likely see unexpected outcomes as a result. For example, while Conservatives like hockey, their moves on broadcasting might make fewer Canadians have access to it. Unintended consequences.

The mistake in believing your own publicity is that if it is not based on solid policies. And to stay in power, it requires a frequent refreshing of people and idea. This is something the Liberals and the Conservatives don't seem to learn. We have been leaning on cult of personality too long and it is hurting the country.

Quiet January 1st in Winnipeg

The First of January is generally one of the quietest days of the year. It isn't a religious holiday per se. It isn't one where a family dinner or gifts are required. Over the decades in Winnipeg it has entailed going out for dinner and dancing but this has greatly been reduced by the falling amount of bars, cabarets and lounges. This is a change long is coming with young people's relationship with alcohol. It also has to do with tobacco.

The late night opening of some stores and restaurants is a story about liquor and cigarettes. No need for a 24 hour Shopper's if people are not coming in at all hours to buy tobacco. Likewise, no need for a 4 AM closing at a restaurant if booze is not sold in sufficient quantities. The aging population means that people don't roll into a restaurant at midnight and spend a few hours there.

And so it goes for a day like January 1st. The evening event on the Eve in places like The Forks and Assiniboine Park end early. There are no fireworks. Skating and restaurants are still open although close before midnight in the parks. City parks are largely empty after 10 pm. There really has been a turn against fireworks in the city of Winnipeg.

Fireworks have largely been left to the community clubs and few of them do it on Canada Day or January 1st. I suspect a bylaw at some point to ban them in Winnipeg including sports events. The opposition to them has grown so determined that it will probably be something that could preclude fireworks for Grey Cup. Much of the resistance to fireworks has centered on the noise that affects animals. However, we have come to see public parks largely abandon evening events on New Year's Eve entirely.

The night lights program over winter at the zoo and Assiniboia Downs are good but the days of a New Year's celebration in the evening are largely gone. If New Year's Day is not that important or overrated as a holiday in Manitoba, it strikes me that more stores and services should be open. If city, provincial and federal governments think the day should be devoid of real celebration, open it up and remove it as a statutory day. Have people return to work that day if it is a normal day of the week. Or at the very least, let's grocery stores and malls open.

Federal holidays should be re-evaluated after consultations with the public. It is likely July 1st Canada Day and Christmas remain statutory days. However, does Victoria Day mean anything? Truth and Reconciliation is new and likely to stay but I expect it evolves over the years. Thanksgiving is unlikely to change as is Remembrance Day (although I can see it becoming a Monday at some point). However, Good Friday and Easter Monday are probably not needed. 

It is clear that many public places would rather not do much on New Year's Eve so what is really special about it? Perhaps it should be just like any other holiday like Halloween or Valentine's Day: Just a regular work day.

 

Canada, the 51st State?

Canada isn't the only place where Donald Trump has expressed American Manifest Destiny. He has set his aim at Panama and Greenland as well. The Panamanian and Danish leaders have rebuffed the overtures. It isn't entirely sure whether it is to get concessions or to actually lay claim to other parts of the world. The thing is that when a president asks his intelligence services or military to do something, they just might actually do it.

There are constitutional mechanisms in both the U.S. and Canada for major changes such as this. Hawaii and Alaska became states in 1959. Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico have been waiting statehood for decades. The U.S. continues to have territories all over the planet but there has not been a big push to add more states or even sub-divide the big states like California.

One major consideration for America is balance of power. Republican party members might only be interested if they felt new states would not automatically be Democratic. This, in part, has held up Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico from statehood. For D.C., there many be grounds based on intent of founding fathers but for Puerto Rico, the reluctance could be the balance of power argument. It is a possible fear that the state would lean to the Democratic party. In other words, Republicans would want another state added that would lean the other way.

This is possibly the biggest argument from the American side about that would prevent Canada from becoming a state. It is the fear that it would be a possible shift in American electoral balance with both senators and a passel of representatives being Democrat. Some senators last week suggested Canada be broken up into two as if western Canada or just Alberta alone would be a sure bet Republican.

No province can separate from Canada. The Clarity Act makes it clear what needs to be done. To even vote on it requires a clear question and negotiation. It cannot be a unilateral decision despite what some separatist leaders have said. It also is worth noting that if Canada is divisible so are the provinces. Arguing that provincial territory is inviolable rings hollow for those looking to separate a province from Canada. 

Trump continues to say Canada should be part of the U.S. but never says how he goes about that. It could all been jibes and negotiating tactics. Canadian TV investor Kevin O'Leary says he wants to meet Trump to discuss economic union or even the 51st state. He says they will meet at Mar-a-Lago. Perhaps they think a new Conservative Conservative will embrace this in Canada.

The Parti Quebecois leads the polls in Quebec for 15 points. The provincial Liberals don't even have a leader. The next election is in 2026 but the CAQ leader will in his late 60s by then and might look quite old compared to the PQ. If there is a federal Conservative government, do they even care if Quebec separates? Does Trump play hardball and say the dairy marketing board end if they separate and ask for a trade deal? Does Alberta try to separate and join U.S. as a state?

The question of what Pierre Poilievre does to respond to Trump could be an huge election issue. It is likely why he is desperate to have the election now before Trump can act as President. It may be hard to explain how flaccid his response is if Trump starts calling him names and slapping tariffs on a government under his Conservatives. 

Would Poilievre stand up for Canada if provinces were trying to separate or would he facilitate it and the chaos that might result.  The level of disruption in the next year could be substantial and it is not really clear who stands up for Canada. Will Canadians do it if politicians don't? 

I do believe overall that Canada will do well into 2025 but it could all be overturned by world instability. And the country being threatened with separation or turning into a state is as fraught with uncertainty as you can get in our history.