Taiwan is roughly 130 kilometers off China's mainland. It is separated by the Strait of Taiwan. Since 1949, it has been governed by the Republic of China (ROC) which was on the losing side of the Chinese civil war that saw the Communist Party take over China as the People's Republic of China (PRC). Till the 1970s Taiwan held fast that they would re-take all of China and most western countries would not recognize the PRC as the legitimate government on the mainland.
Canada would recognize the PRC as the government of China in 1970. It would take till 1979 for the United States to do so. And while it looked like Taiwan was being displaced and was, they received from the U.S. and other countries specifically from the 1950s on because it was anti-Communist. During the Korean War in the 1950s, the U.S. as well as Canada were at war with North Korean as well as China.
China's attempts to take Taiwan and associated islands was rebuffed and the U.S. helped defend Republic of China with U.S. military assets as well as the equipment. The Taiwan Strait might as well have been a moat. And it wasn't lost on China that the U.S. would use nuclear weapons to defend Taiwan.
The Korean and Vietnam Wars meant enormous U.S. spending in the region and Taiwan benefitted in the 1960s from economic reforms. Huge growth was the result. Meanwhile mainland China was struggling with a planned economy and Communist governance. Taiwan also had a dictatorial government that saw many thousands arrested or executed but the rising economic fortunes continued year after year.
By the 1970s, martial law in Taiwan began to weigh on the population. Many overseas Chinese saw the freedoms in places like the U.S. and yearned for not just economic success but personal freedom. Government crackdowns only stiffened the resolve. In 1987, martial law ended and elections began to be the norm The people of Taiwan began to assert their vision of their country's governance even as the Communist regime pushed back. It seemed they were more wary of a multi-party democracy than they were of a nationalist military force in control of Taiwan.
Taiwan is now a fully formed democracy with regular elections and has moved back and forth between the nationalist KMT and newer parties forming government. From economic miracle to a democratic model, the 23 million people in the densely packed islands have shown remarkable resilience. While the One China policy may still exist, Taiwanese have shown pride of place and no longer harbour ideas of ruling mainland China. The 23 million people of Taiwan have been trying to forge their own path and it is a democratic market economy.
China, on the other hand, has created economic success but any sign of democracy is crushed ruthlessly. Threats to Taiwan are a routine occurrence and calls for invasion come often. China has not ruled out force to bring Taiwan under their control. Understandably, Taiwanese are resistant to that and wish to just engage in a non-hostile relationship. Were it not for the United States and a fairly prickly defence Taiwan has invested in, China would likely take Taiwan if it could.
Taiwan has a fairly significant military force. At times they have painfully had to beg countries to sell to them weapons. And when that hasn't worked, they have built there own. Compared to Canada, Taiwan has substantial navy, air force, army and marine units. If they were brought to full defence, it is likely they could land more than a bloody nose to China but ultimately couldn't defeat it. It is the United States that holds China back. Sink a U.S. carrier and America will respond.
Canada and Taiwan maintain trade offices with each other and Canada has sailed military ships through the Straits of Taiwan in favour of international shipping lines. This has supported Taiwan while irritating mainland China. However, international travel lanes are essential to trade and China laying claim to vast areas in the region and creating artificial islands has been causing fear with many countries.
Taiwan has been facing this since 1949. There has been several military flare ups over the years and even now, China has navy and air assets squeeze in and intimidate. There is still support for one China policy in Taiwan but real fear about loss of autonomy and persecution if the Communist government does ever take over. It is clear there is discussion that seems to lead to a mutually happy joining. Taiwan's mere existence seems to whip up Beijing's ire.
The business climate of Taiwan is well known but the community has many artists, particularly film and television. Netflix has numerous offerings from Taiwan this year and none from China. This is largely in part due to China making it hard for western partnerships. Hong Kong once produced 300 films a year but none for Netflix this year. Taiwan used to invest heavily in film production there but the cold chill of recent relations has meant Taiwan is turning to home investment in the industry and western partners. Meanwhile Hong Kong suffers more stringent rules and caters production to China. This it finds it's home audience in its own city in decline as tricky subjects like police corruption that moviemakers used to love in Hong Kong can't be done as they once were.
With this in mind Taiwan has repatriated money that they used to invest in freewheeling Hong Kong industry including film. It isn't a surprise then that Taiwanese TV and filmmakers have thought about mainland China and what it might be like if Taiwan was taken by force. The result has been a TV series called Zero Day that has recently released a 17 minute trailer that can also be watched in English. Why English? Because this is just as much for western audiences as they are for Asian.
The actual series won't come out till 2025 but the trailer was released during a air raid siren drill. The trailer obviously got everyone talking. The producers consulted widely and researched how a forced China takeover of Taiwan might overwhelm the island and isolate it from any potential help. Quite rightly they identify how China would have many pieces already in place in Taiwan before they acted. They would need a pretext such as a false flag attack against Chinese aircraft, they would need people on the ground to sabotage transportation, communication and utilities. Everything in the trailer sounds plausible and worse for Taiwan, it seems likely.
China has already test-drived filling both air and water with military assets. It remains to be seen if the U.S and other allies would attempt to keep those routes open. If there was fear that American and western citizens could be harm's way, they certainly would. Any mixed messages from Taiwan might stall that help. This is why verifiable communications would be essential. In the TV series, it is suggested that China would use deep fakes to confuse the population. It would likely confuse allies as well. It is for this reason that the U.S. is about to build new bases in The Philippines within 150 kilometers of Taiwan to support that area if needed. To the north, the U.S. already has massive bases in Okinawa.
It is likely Zero Day will see interest in other countries as well. The security of Taiwan has always been the back of the people's mind but the level of wariness has increased. The one area that was not really detailed in the trailer is what Taiwan might look like following a takeover. I guess we will have to wait for the sequel to find that out!
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