Donald Trump, Next President of the United States?

Following the Trump trial in New York, more commentators have said it won't stop Trump from running and possibly winning the next election. Canadians following along can only wonder what such turbulent times can mean. While we have no say in the end results of a U.S. election, we are sure to be affected by it. It sometimes doesn't matter if the President or Congress is Democrat or Republican as either can be tough on Canada whether it is trade or foreign policy.

We are not nearly as polarized although there are people who have hated Trudeau with all their hearts. A surge of Canadians going to live in the U.S. have cited that as a reason to real estate agents for moves to such places like Florida. It will be curious if a different prime minister hastens a return. The truth is people move for work, climate and other reasons so moves might continue regardless. Home prices in Canada have had people cashing in for retirement moves or leaving for less expensive living in the U.S.

There is a lot of anger that has built up in North America and in the U.S. in particular. A seething grievance and upset is fueled by the various silos of information catering to beliefs its audience might already have. In Canada, we have only two cable news channels which some people on the right might consider extremist left wing. There was the Sun cable news channel that tried to make a go of it but it's ratings were poor which they blamed on regulators for not making it mandatory on cable. Rebel Media has taken over the right wing voice in Canada and is probably more outspoken than it was on TV.

In the U.S. there are multiple platforms for the left wing, right wing and very little for those who report straight news. FOX news is the biggest on the right wing media front in the U.S. and fully got on board in support of Donald Trump's return to the presidency. The polarization has gotten so pronounced that the primaries were a wash and the chosen candidates pretty much decided months ago.

Joe Biden has been down in the polls for months despite evidence that the economy has bounced back. However, inflation has made people angry and upset  about the rising costs. It will take some time before prices start to feel affordable. Some stores in the U.S. are lowering prices because the market has reached a peak. Habits have changed in many cases so that people are eating earlier, looking for bargains and feeling a little disengaged from the world.

The cutting of cable wires, streaming and fewer local sources of news means more limited sources of information getting out to people. There is less tolerance for any view not already established. News sources on the left and right reinforce established views and news operations that report straight news are treated with disdain. It is hard to see how people can information when there are no agreed upon reference points or facts.

Donald Trump is largely unaffected by the court cases or what the judge says in July. He can still run and win. It is entirely possible that Republicans wins Congress as well as the Presidency. I've said it before and I will say again: Canadians should not take a U.S. election personally. The majority of us don't live there, vote there and probably won't be affected any differently than if it was a total sweep of Democrats. In fact, we have been treated more severely sometimes by Democrats.

The next election will be about mobilization and turnout. Either party has anyone less than motivated and they will likely lose. Canada can only stand back and watch. Some international players might try to influence the results both legally and illegally but Canada should be vocally neutral. It is very possible we will be baited into world debate about how secure Canada is, how unfair a trading partner we are and how we don't contribute to defence. 

Canadian politicians, journalist and citizenry should have answers to these questions and more but not to get angry nor take lightly who is saying something and what they are saying. If Trump is elected and looks to punish countries that spend less than 2% on defence, Canada must have a response. And not just the prime minister but Parliament and its leaders. 

In the past, and even with Donald Trump, Canada has managed the relationship with the U.S. as best as it can. We want the U.S. to pay attention to our issues, many of which revolve around trade, but not so much attention that we are a target of negative outcomes. It is not easy. If Trump is in power though, we should realize that we could face a sudden policy change if we don't work through other layers of power in Washington. And no, a change of government to a Conservative party will not necessarily give Canada a boost with Trump. Ask the British if they were cut any favour with Trump during a Conservative government.

It is probably best for all Canadians to prepare for the possible election of Trump as president and everything that goes with it.