Work Begins at Kapyong Naawi Oodena

It is 20 long years of waiting for something to happen on the former Kapyong Barracks. One wonders if things had proceeded promptly back then whether First Nations and Canada Lands Corporation (the federal Crown) might have signed IKEA up to locate here. I strongly suspect it would have. Highly likely that Superstore and Safeway would have relocated there as well.

Nothing to do about it now. Construction has started on the first section at the corner of Taylor and Kenaston in one of the smallest segments. It will be a gas station and likely a smoke shop. Not entirely glamourous but probably a necessary step to bring in capital for the First Nations. Commercial development is required for the long term investment to pay off. Presently, between the St. James Bridge and the Perimeter there are only a small number of gas stations along Kenaston. Considering the traffic along it, it isn't a bad idea for the station. However, between Superstore and Costco, prices are pretty competitive. There is very little room for a station always higher than those stores.

It is uncertain how long other announcements will be. The most ideal spots for initial development are along Taylor. A hotel and residential apartments are probably an upcoming announcement. As it stands now, we might not see some of the commercial development arrive until January 2025 and in the months that follow. If the city wishes to pay for additional lanes alone Route 90, they are running out of time. The First Nations may wish to get the capital from this purchase but there is no evidence that the city or the province has the budget to buy more road lanes along Kenaston.

It is for this reason that we might see slower development along the corridor. Gas stations and commercial leases are reliable ways to earn income for what is to come next. You can see that at Madison where a Petro-Canada and a Wyndham Hotel have gone up. The $21 million plus construction and the office complex surrounding it is a long term investment that should pay off in the Polo Park area,

Initial plans for Kapyong site seem to include two hotels. Given the very few numbers of hotels in the city's southwest, this is probably a good bet. However, two hotels are likely to come in at $40 million plus easily and take two years to build each.

Recreation facilities and health facilities are listed as coming but details are light at that the time about what they are how, how much they will cost and when they go up. It seems hockey rinks could be highly sought out but are not presently listed. Again, it could be a question of money. And nothing will happen with any real speed. It has taken Seasons of Tuxedo ten years of construction and they are still building this year with a few sections left to do.

Housing is the key to any development now. The government estimates that Canada as a while needs nearly 4 million housing units and we are way behind. While it might seem a like a lot is being built in Winnipeg and across the province, it is still too slow compared to the demand. 

Canada Lands Corporation is likely to make announcements as well for building. They are the federal Crown and own a significant amount of the Kapyong lands. Given the Trudeau government's desire to kickstart housing, it is very likely these federally owned lands will take greater importance in the weeks and months ahead.

In Vienna, it is government owned land and government-led housing development that keeps prices low. There is a 1% tax that guarantees millions spent every year for the last 100 years. A two bedroom apartment in Vienna is $500 Canadian. The Austrians have felt supply is the key metric and not demand to keeping prices down. They are right. The one thing that will help reduce prices is to go beyond demand. And subsidize their building and keep building.

The Naawi Oodena is the type of infill housing that is required to meet the housing needs of the province. What will also be required is more public transportation. It simply isn't on to add several lanes of traffic. Frankly, it is impossible unless a lot of housing is demolished along Kenaston to do it. Not to mention creating turning lanes and blocking traffic from crossing Kenaston at various intersections. Any plan thus far shown seems likely to not solve the problems of congestion and in fact may hurt River Heights and Tuxedo and several others areas south to the perimeter.

It might be that the former Kapyong Barracks might be well under way before any transportation plan is ever full realized. The sad thing is that they had 20 years to plan for it and have done nothing about it even now.