Thursday, October 28, 2010

Three Terms And Out?

I heard it a few times last night that this will be Sam Katz's third and final term. Not entirely convinced of that since he had previously stated that he would limit himself to two terms.

But what if he truly means it?

My guess is that we would see several councillors toss their hats into the right.

Off the top of my head:

Gord Steeves
Danny Vandal

Judy Wasylycia-Leis will probably want to return. One wonders what she will do the next four years but if she stays in the public eye, she could possibly do it. Certainly her pension money ought to keep her flush till then.

Given the tepid support he gave to JWL, perhaps Russ Wyatt might run.

Of the newcomers on council, look to Paula Havixbeck to possibly see the full Tory machine and unions support her.

There are a few councillors who might consider running but might stand down with NDP pressure quietly (or loudly) telling them to not to do it. That doesn't always work: Ask Harvey Smith about that. He decided not to be pushed.

If the provincial election goes badly for the NDP next year, we could see additional refugees from the NDP. Who that might be is anyone's guess. It is even possible that some provincial Progressive Conservatives might decide to run.

We should know shortly about the federal byelection of Winnipeg North Center. If Kevin Lamoureux doesn't capture the seat, could we see him make a try for the city?

From the federal Tories, might we see:

Rod Bruinooge
Shelly Glover
Steven Fletcher
Joy Smith

Between now and the next civic election, we will see a federal election. We could see a change of government or a few seat changes. Some of those MPs or former MPs might be looking at the mayor's job.

I expect that there would be a lot of interest from non-politician types. Expect at least a half dozen people to toss their hat in the ring.

In four years, police chief Keith McCaskill might run.

From the media side, maybe we see these people consider running:

Hal Anderson
Marty Gold
Geoff Currier

Another Liberal who might make a try is Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs leader Ron Evans if he decides to call Winnipeg home.

I expect a few aboriginal leaders to mull running.

From the business side of Winnipeg, I expect:

Dave Angus
Larry McIntosh

Could someone from the Chipman or Asper family decide to run?

I'm sure there are plenty of other names to toss around. Feel free to chime in here.

Or is this speculation all for naught? Will Sam Katz decide he really, really likes being mayor and run for a fourth term?

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One Man Committee said...

If no credible candidates step up early, I could easily see Katz deciding to run for it again. I wouldn't discount the possibility of that happening again.

I would like to see a mayoral candidate run because he or she is actually interested in governance and policy matters. It would be nice to inject some actual ideas into the debate, which we haven't really had in a mayoral race since the Murray years.

John Dobbin said...

I think many people will keep quiet until they are certain that Katz is stepping down.

The trick will be to make sure that critical analysis is done over the next four years of Katz and his governance. He has a majority and can do what he wants.

It is unlikely that council opposition will be effective unless it is coordinated and directed at where Katz is vulnerable which is on crime, infrastructure and taxes.

The Great Canadian Talk Show said...

I have no political aspirations and never will, but thanks for the thought.

cherenkov said...

Gail Asper needs something to do after the museum is built.

John Dobbin said...

I wonder if she might consider it.

However, Sam Katz now seems to be indicating he might consider a fourth run.