Gen Z Leaving Winnipeg

Gen Z is often considered to be people born between 1997 and 2018. Everything they do as of late is drawing attention. It is a generation that is changing alcohol consumption, shopping and education because they don't do what previous generations do. To that end, each generation does their own thing. In some cases, like the Baby Boom generation, the generation is so large that it crashes through each decade like a bulldozer. Sometimes they are so small, like Generation X, they are not mentioned at all.

So if a place like Winnipeg can draw students (along with the province), how do we lose them? Jobs, wages and opportunities are a big factor. Perhaps the biggest. We can't compete with mountains and weather. 

One of the things that attract Gen Z to Manitoba has been post secondary education. From Brandon to Winnipeg and through the province there fairly decent post secondary schools. 

Gen Z in Manitoba is leaving in substantial numbers and questions are being asked as they always are about why people are leaving. The simple truth is that continued job and education opportunities await further afield. It is very competitive in that area and always has been. Alberta today probably has over 200,000 people originally from Manitoba who have re-located there.

CBC Manitoba had a panel January 13 of Gen Z students. Most of them said they are not leaving per se but did explain the rationale for those that do. In terms of higher education, sometimes Masters and Doctoral programs are elsewhere. Research money is elsewhere. To its credit, the University of Manitoba had a successful year this year in recruiting Canadians to the campus and the increase in research money has been among the highest in Canada.

The University of Winnipeg has had a decades long program of building student housing. So has Canadian Mennonite University. The University of Manitoba has lagged while private builders have begun to take on the job. However, affordable housing means units need to be built all the time with no 10 or 20 year gaps as we have seen.

One of the things the CBC panel mentioned over and over was transit. It is easy for those who have cars to dismiss those who take the bus. Young people are too young to drive or too poor to drive. The penalties and costs of campus parking has been a decades long agony for students and faculty. However, the priority on housing has been painfully slow even with so much land available.

So riding buses that require multiple transfers or require long walks or waits is looked on unfavourably. Trips to Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and elsewhere make the difference clearer when young people take trains and subways. If you don't have a car for any number of reasons, you long for good transport and affordable cost. Some would just like bike paths that connect them to parts of the city or walkable trails.

Young people, when not in school, are looking for those first employment opportunities and wage growth that help pay for rent and future home ownership. Manitoba has been known for low pay and the excuse has been lower cost of living. But it also comes with slow advancement. For those who advance in companies such as banks, insurance companies and government the promotion sometimes means a move to places like Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa. This, in and of itself, doesn't always represent a problem. While some who go away never return except as visitors, some return for a variety of reasons.

In the 1980s during the recession, Winnipeg and the province lost massive population as big employers shut down. Many people had no choice to leave as they had no job. And tens of thousands didn't come back. Calgary and Edmonton surpassed us in population. As did Ottawa. And almost Hamilton and Quebec City. The decline has ebbed since but most of Winnipeg's growth has come from immigration and birthrate and not transfers from other provinces.

Gen Z is more mobile and while there are good reasons for them to stay such as family, higher education and family, the lower wages, lack of advancement and general fewer amenities in recreation and transportation to name a few. Various interviews reinforce Gen Z observations.

As mentioned, Winnipeg can't change its climate or geography and create oceans and mountains. However, it can make sure that it corrects its missteps on buses. Buses that drive back busy stops of students, buses that are never on time, buses that don't work with student schedules, bus shelters that are broken, unsafe, bus travel that can result in violence. And as far as fast or convenient, it pales to many other places.

Up until the last few decades there were deeply affordable housing in Winnipeg. Osborne Village was known for where many people started in their first rentals. There were a few areas around town like that. While there are some less costly areas to live, the rent has gone up and the availability gone down. Since 2005, new buildings don't have any rent control for 20 years and there is a $13,500 tax credit per unit. Not surprisingly, there is apartment building going up all over the city. 

However, it takes 20 years of consistent building where you start to see deeply affordable housing at sufficient capacities. Keep in mind though that even when rent was affordable, we lost young people to other provinces because of job opportunities, wages and perceived exciting city life. Still, a commitment to affordable housing often draws back people who live elsewhere for a while and wish to get more bang for the buck. Winnipeg and the province can't take a hiatus from building as they did for nearly 20 years.

In the U.S., Gen Z is re-populating mid size cities like Raleigh and Madison. Perfect climate and geography have been less important that being able to walk places, shop locally and have things to do. In Winnipeg, The Fringe Festival and Nuite Blanche are exactly what that population likes to see. Food truck weekend, bike event and the like are high on their lists.

For work, they want flexible workplaces, clear directives and commitments with opportunities for growth. The generation is prepared to come and stay in places like Winnipeg. This is not a case of big cities and nothing else will do. The generation will respond to an authentic and dedicated appeal to them.

What they won't respond to is a city they can't travel in, afford in housing or prepared to cut them the moment there is a business rationalization to maximize profit at their expense. They are looking at communities and at their present ages, they can't see it in long commutes to suburbs.

There are things that Winnipeg is doing to appeal to Generation Z. Some of them are here already but patience in improving wages, opportunities and transportation might be too slow to keep them here initially.