China

There is no doubt that China uses tariffs to punish other countries for infractions. They also use hostage diplomacy as we saw from the Two Michaels situation when two businessman were abducted when Canada responded to an extradition request from the U.S. for a Chinese exec. The Americans left us out to dry with that and we are still facing the consequences of that.

And this is part of the problem we face today is superpowers trying to acquire land, assets and influence. To an extent this has always been the way over the centuries with continental blocs held together by similar interests with one dominant who pushed their agenda the most. The Western Bloc, the Eastern Bloc and the Asian Bloc or whatever names they were called over time.

In recent years, the western alliance of NATO has been in ascendancy in that has grown and Europe by itself has become a a powerful bloc. Canada, by virtue of being a G7 country, founding member of NATO and for European ties, is part of a trans-Atlantic alliance. The U.S. is by far the largest entity in the Western alliance militarily and economically. At its best it is an example of democracy and economic innovation. At its worst, it can be authoritarian and a military menace.

Since the 1980s Canada has had a series of free trade agreements that has cemented our position as a primary trading partner with the U.S. and Mexico. It has become such a large percentage that some businesses have not really sought to expand their business elsewhere. That is, except for agriculture, where the U.S. market is saturated and protected that Canada exports around the world. 

The top two market of China and the U.S. in recent years punish Canada on trade for not obeying them. Canada is no longer naïve about China. Even in the Harper years there was a belief we could sell incredible amounts of product to China and not be dependent on the U.S. and Mexico. However, Canada quickly learned that China was looking at Canadian technology and manufacturing to access that information and then use it in their own products and limit Canadian trade. We weren't the only ones. The U.S. and Europeans also learned that China was not looking for a true free trade agreement.

So in 2026, Canada is back talking with China with a more nuanced approach. It is looking to trade more with China, especially with food but also on cheap EVs. However, like we did with the Koreans and Japanese in the 1980s, we are looking to draw more manufacturing to the country. If Ontario auto plant workers are working for BYD or GM, what does it matter? This should not be a hard thing. If the U.S. is trying to end all manufacturing of cars in Canada, why should we not seek out other manufacturers? The expectation that we only buy expensive cars from the States is nonsense.

The premier of Ontario Doug Ford is outraged about the deal to let Chinese electric vehicles in but it really goes back to 2022/23 in terms of what was in place prior. Ontario benefits now as Chinese purchases canola resume. Beef sales are also resuming. This is a good thing in a years long tariffs war. It isn't perfect or addresses interference in elections, espionage or human rights. Nothing is said on Taiwan. Canada isn't rolling over on these issues but is more likely to pick their battles more carefully. It is why Carney is going from country to country to limit our exposure to only one export market and to form buffer against dependency. This is hard when 75% of your export trade goes to the U.S.

In the 1980s there was a lot of fear about Honda, Toyota and Hyundai and Canada got them to build manufacturing plants in Ontario. I think there will wide acknowledgement that it helped makes cars affordable and the quality across the board went up. Ideally, a portion of the manufacturing comes to Canada. Some critics say it won't and say the country will lose manufacturing just as Australia did. That is possible even if Canada doesn't import Chinese EVs.

If the U.S. ends the free trade agreement with cars, all the manufacturers could move to the U.S. which is probably not great for GM, Ford and Stellantis (Chrysler). As it stands now, Canada depends on billions of subsidies to keep the car plants in Canada. Norway, Denmark and Australia don't have car industries and remain prosperous and even more productive. However, losing all your manufacturing has consequences. One example is that Canada used to produce all its vaccines. When Covid happened, we had no ability to produce anything and China cut us off.

For those who lobby strictly for only private aspects for the market, it can leave you vulnerable you to market manipulation that ends up being anti-competitive. Even within Canada anticompetitive behaviours by business. The right balance of government and business is difficult to gage. Perhaps the ones that create the fewest imbalances in society are the best.

Around 5% of export trade goes to China. That represents a lot of agriculture. For pork products that means the whole pig unlike Canada where not all is used. Because of China's past, we have to ensure that we seek out even more markets for our goods. Some things such as potash or oil products can go anywhere. As can critical minerals. The truth is we haven't looked much because we believed the U.S. market was always available. Selling gold recently has helped Canada in its international trade. India, for example, imports a lot of gold.

I don't think anyone is naïve about China in the Canadian government about the risks involved. The Carney government has to mindful of espionage, military escalation and other issues that come up. It is likely Carney won't be vocal in public about what some of the red lines are. However, I expect spies and aggressive behaviour over territory will not be ignored.

The world has been doing a lot of talking about what Canada is doing on the global stage. From Davos to Beijing, we are not doing what has been done in the past. We can't. The threats have just been too great.

Gen Z Leaving Winnipeg

Gen Z is often considered to be people born between 1997 and 2018. Everything they do as of late is drawing attention. It is a generation that is changing alcohol consumption, shopping and education because they don't do what previous generations do. To that end, each generation does their own thing. In some cases, like the Baby Boom generation, the generation is so large that it crashes through each decade like a bulldozer. Sometimes they are so small, like Generation X, they are not mentioned at all.

So if a place like Winnipeg can draw students (along with the province), how do we lose them? Jobs, wages and opportunities are a big factor. Perhaps the biggest. We can't compete with mountains and weather. 

One of the things that attract Gen Z to Manitoba has been post secondary education. From Brandon to Winnipeg and through the province there fairly decent post secondary schools. 

Gen Z in Manitoba is leaving in substantial numbers and questions are being asked as they always are about why people are leaving. The simple truth is that continued job and education opportunities await further afield. It is very competitive in that area and always has been. Alberta today probably has over 200,000 people originally from Manitoba who have re-located there.

CBC Manitoba had a panel January 13 of Gen Z students. Most of them said they are not leaving per se but did explain the rationale for those that do. In terms of higher education, sometimes Masters and Doctoral programs are elsewhere. Research money is elsewhere. To its credit, the University of Manitoba had a successful year this year in recruiting Canadians to the campus and the increase in research money has been among the highest in Canada.

The University of Winnipeg has had a decades long program of building student housing. So has Canadian Mennonite University. The University of Manitoba has lagged while private builders have begun to take on the job. However, affordable housing means units need to be built all the time with no 10 or 20 year gaps as we have seen.

One of the things the CBC panel mentioned over and over was transit. It is easy for those who have cars to dismiss those who take the bus. Young people are too young to drive or too poor to drive. The penalties and costs of campus parking has been a decades long agony for students and faculty. However, the priority on housing has been painfully slow even with so much land available.

So riding buses that require multiple transfers or require long walks or waits is looked on unfavourably. Trips to Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and elsewhere make the difference clearer when young people take trains and subways. If you don't have a car for any number of reasons, you long for good transport and affordable cost. Some would just like bike paths that connect them to parts of the city or walkable trails.

Young people, when not in school, are looking for those first employment opportunities and wage growth that help pay for rent and future home ownership. Manitoba has been known for low pay and the excuse has been lower cost of living. But it also comes with slow advancement. For those who advance in companies such as banks, insurance companies and government the promotion sometimes means a move to places like Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa. This, in and of itself, doesn't always represent a problem. While some who go away never return except as visitors, some return for a variety of reasons.

In the 1980s during the recession, Winnipeg and the province lost massive population as big employers shut down. Many people had no choice to leave as they had no job. And tens of thousands didn't come back. Calgary and Edmonton surpassed us in population. As did Ottawa. And almost Hamilton and Quebec City. The decline has ebbed since but most of Winnipeg's growth has come from immigration and birthrate and not transfers from other provinces.

Gen Z is more mobile and while there are good reasons for them to stay such as family, higher education and family, the lower wages, lack of advancement and general fewer amenities in recreation and transportation to name a few. Various interviews reinforce Gen Z observations.

As mentioned, Winnipeg can't change its climate or geography and create oceans and mountains. However, it can make sure that it corrects its missteps on buses. Buses that drive back busy stops of students, buses that are never on time, buses that don't work with student schedules, bus shelters that are broken, unsafe, bus travel that can result in violence. And as far as fast or convenient, it pales to many other places.

Up until the last few decades there were deeply affordable housing in Winnipeg. Osborne Village was known for where many people started in their first rentals. There were a few areas around town like that. While there are some less costly areas to live, the rent has gone up and the availability gone down. Since 2005, new buildings don't have any rent control for 20 years and there is a $13,500 tax credit per unit. Not surprisingly, there is apartment building going up all over the city. 

However, it takes 20 years of consistent building where you start to see deeply affordable housing at sufficient capacities. Keep in mind though that even when rent was affordable, we lost young people to other provinces because of job opportunities, wages and perceived exciting city life. Still, a commitment to affordable housing often draws back people who live elsewhere for a while and wish to get more bang for the buck. Winnipeg and the province can't take a hiatus from building as they did for nearly 20 years.

In the U.S., Gen Z is re-populating mid size cities like Raleigh and Madison. Perfect climate and geography have been less important that being able to walk places, shop locally and have things to do. In Winnipeg, The Fringe Festival and Nuite Blanche are exactly what that population likes to see. Food truck weekend, bike event and the like are high on their lists.

For work, they want flexible workplaces, clear directives and commitments with opportunities for growth. The generation is prepared to come and stay in places like Winnipeg. This is not a case of big cities and nothing else will do. The generation will respond to an authentic and dedicated appeal to them.

What they won't respond to is a city they can't travel in, afford in housing or prepared to cut them the moment there is a business rationalization to maximize profit at their expense. They are looking at communities and at their present ages, they can't see it in long commutes to suburbs.

There are things that Winnipeg is doing to appeal to Generation Z. Some of them are here already but patience in improving wages, opportunities and transportation might be too slow to keep them here initially.

Toys R Us Closing at Polo Park

Opened in 1989. Toy R us Polo Park has had success even when American and UK divisions of the company folded. Sadly, many stores are now closing in Canada as competition eats away at them. At one point there were around 100 stores coast to coast. That number might be around 40 now.

Even as some other stores are folded into Toys R Us like Babies R Us and HMV, the company has had a hard time competing with Amazon and Walmart. In general, some toys stores have struggled in the past year such as Mastermind. There could be a variety of reasons why not the least of which is that the stores are too big and rent too high.

There have been some big changes since Toys R Us opened in 1989. Back then the Red River Ex, stadium and arena were all in the area and drew large crowds much of the year. Polo Park Mall still draw crowds. It has been some time since the arena and stadium closed and the spaces around that area remains largely vacant. This possibly has had an impact on traffic.

There will be some who mourn the loss. It is always surprising that Americans who come here have their faces light up when they see the store. In 2026, it is reported that Toys R Us will be opening stores again in the U.S. This could boost prospects in Canada too if there is a new approach and format that appears to work.

The Regent store remains for now. Perhaps this closure will forestall any more closures. All retail is facing a bit of chaos in terms of post pandemic climate, supply chains, inflation, tariffs and relevancy. Amazon has turned into a monster but in house experience can still be possible. For example, Spirit Halloween, is not just about costumes but the experience of being scared by some of the noise and pop up monsters. Amazon doesn't do that. A new offering of Toys R Us needs to entertain as well as have product on sale.

There is a new approach to the Polo Park area to mix in retail and residential. The Toys R Us site doesn't have an automatic store to jump into the space. It could be we see more apartments go up now that it is permitted after resistance from Winnipeg Airport. It is sad though that a long time store with memories for a lot of people over four decades disappears now.

The 2026 Winnipeg Civic Election

The city election is October 28, 2026. On May 1st of the year, candidates can begin raising and spending for their campaign. Two candidates who have previously run have indicated they will be back in the race. Don Woodstock and Mike Vogiatzakis have indicated they will run. The two businessmen have issues rated to crime that could be compelling running against Scott Gillingham.

The last election had candidates across the spectrum of left and right. Former mayor Glen Murray took a shot and came close to winning it. Perhaps Shaun Loney split the progressive vote with Murray. The Gillingham win was a narrow one. The election was as wide open as they come.

The incumbency factor in civic politics is one of the toughest when seeing competitive races. A sitting mayor is often in the job until they decide not to be. Incumbent councillors are reluctant to resign and run against incumbent mayors. They know it is an up hill battle. The present mayor had to leave his St. James ward to run for mayor. Unlike in the U.S. where a sitting senator can run for president and not resign from the senate unless elected president, our system doesn't not allow a MLA, councillor, MP or other elected official to run for mayor unless they resign from their old position. I'm convinced it would not stand a legal challenge but no one has ever taken it to court.

If no councillors step down, it is possible we see every person who stands for election re-elected. The voter turnout is so low and the public awareness of new faces is even lower. It is possible that nothing will remove the advantages of incumbency. I'm not in favour of term limits but perhaps allowing people holding other elected offices to run would bring competitive races to positions. Failing that, some form of ballot selection where voters pick their three top choices might work.

In the end it is the province that can change how city's function. And they don't seem too keen to change the dysfunction and lack of funding. It come down to a lack of trust. Some in the province likely think the city will overbuild highways and leave other aspects of the city to rot. The lack of trust between all governments is just not there. There is some evidence that between provinces and the Feds there has been a thaw. You would hope it would extend to cities like Winnipeg.

At the moment, the upcoming civic election will only produce a status quo.

Abercrombie and Fitch, Uniqlo Coming to Polo Park, Eddie Bauer Closing

Polo Park remains the top mall because it continues to adapt and attract tenants. Having said that, it must be exhausting some of the big retailers like Eaton's, Sears, Zellers, The Bay and others who have collapsed over the years. Even now, the mall and St. Vital are trying to figure out what to do about the empty Bay stores. It is likely we hear more in 2026 but it is unlikely that there is any big retailer is about to grab the whole space. Even Simons would not occupy that much space as seen from their recent expansion from Quebec into Ontario.

This story is not about the anchor stores though. This is about the smaller retailers that make up the corridors between the anchors. After Christmas every year changes are made and there will be periods where some retailers are looking to to downsize or close and others are looking to the opposite. There will be attempts in the mall to move retailers around so they can occupy bigger spaces or to be in an area where each retailer attracts a certain type of customer. For example, jewelry stores like to locate in the middle of the mall where two or more corridors intersect.

Polo Park has kept up as the top mall because it constantly invests in the building and seeks out unique stores no one else has. The Apple store does huge business. However, even having one exclusive store can have it's time and close. Eddie Bauer has been around for years and was part of a huge upgrade in 2014. There is only one in the city and on January 7, it closed. It is unknown whether this is a lease that was not renewed or whether Eddie Bauer itself made the decision. 

In the end, it doesn't matter because the mall has been moving tenants around to accommodate incoming retailers. While it is suggested Gen Zs are not going to the mall, Canada cannot merely assume what is true in the States is true here. There is some evidence to suggest that certain stores can indeed attract young people. And malls have been trying to add attractions and activities that attract families. Ask West Edmonton Mall and Mall of America about those.

Malls are like hotels in that renovations and changes within an existing framework need to be done each decade to keep things fresh. It is worth noting that Polo Park was late to the food court crowd in the 1980s. They had mall restaurants as tenants and in department stores but nothing like the other malls until their late 1980s reno. That was the way to attract young people back in the day and still is.

The constant change in recent years hastened by Covid means just as a mall settles one issue or need, they get bulldozed by new announcements of store closures they perhaps didn't not anticipate. As mentioned, Eddie Bauer is closed. The company has been closing closing locations over the last few years. However, the location closure has given Hollister a chance to re-locate and do a re-fresh. The California-look store has been at Polo Park since 2010. It is unknown if they will restore the video walls of Huntington Beach webcam that the company has broadcast since the early 2000s. Most of the stores have dropped the beach hut like entrance for a brighter, open window look. Apparently, Gen Z likes brighter lights. Also gone in the new design is the heavy scent and loud music.

In Hollister's old location near Zara, sister company Abercrombie and Fitch is set to come to Manitoba for the first time. They have had their ups and downs, CEO problems and the like. The store first started in 1892 so they know something about adapting. As a new store to the province, it will attract a lot of interest from young to mid-range age shoppers. Abercrombie has gone through several iterations as most successful brands have done. The opening of the store in 2026 should cement CF Polo Park's hold as the top mall in Manitoba.

To cap it off, the mall is adding Uniqlo, the Asian-inspire store that has fans across the world. This will be the third in a series of Asian stores to open at Polo Park. It likely won't arrive before St. Vital Center's own Uniqlo arrives. The southeast mall continues to be the main rival to Polo Park. The large Asian population of Winnipeg and those that love Asian fashion and beauty is changing the retail industry.

The goal of any mall is to transform and not leave big empty gaps in the building. To that end, what Polo Park does with the old Bay will be one to watch after these latest stores open.

Meltwich Portage Avenue Closed Permanently

At least it is says permanently on a hand drawn sheet in the window.

It may not be the only. The website says temporarily closed. The website also lists the Pembina Highway location has closed too.

We have seen franchisors go down before and the re-opened with new owners. Sometimes they close never to open again. It would seem a grilled cheese sandwich concept would work. 

The location also has Le's Subs for a number of years and prior to it was a Quizno's. That is three for three for failed sandwich places. The parking for both Meltwich locations might have been an issue. It is hard to tell. 

Unless a new ownership group to take over, expect Meltwich to be closed for good.

The Most Overrated Holiday of the Year

Truly the most overrated day of the year is New Year's Eve. It isn't a religious holiday. It doesn't make a special time in Canadian history. It isn't a personal day of importance like a birthday. There are no meals associated with it. Drinking is usually connected the day. 

Those that have to work the day get paid time and a half. Most, if not all, stores are closed. The day can fall anytime of the week so it is not an automatic long weekend. This year Christmas and New Year's Day fell on a Thursday. In 2026, both fall on a Friday creating a long weekend each time.

In general though, New Year's Day has been quiet in Canada. The change in the retail act in 2020 means many stores are open in the day including malls such as Outlet Collection and St. Vital. It used to be that everything was closed on New Year's day and there was nothing in the way of public activities. This began to change in the 1980s and 90s with activities at city parks including fireworks as well as family-friendly activities. 

Today, there is an anti-fireworks movement in Winnipeg. It appeared that there was only one listing for fireworks on New Years Eve. The fireworks in Naples, Italy and in Los Angeles are purely citizen driven. The risk in curbing public fireworks events is that citizens will do it without permission and dare you do to something about it. Diwali fireworks are a good example. Citizen complaints on Reddit, notwithstanding, it is unlikely any police will go arresting Indian Canadians.

In the post pandemic, I'd say we are in a bit of a lull for what to do New Year's Eve and day. Drinking is way down and so are the restaurants and clubs that provide those services. It is a long way back in years when casinos and convention centre had regular events. The Winnipeg Convention Centre used to have major events.

I expect the only way things change is with time. Canada is such a young country. Even now we add new holidays or create names for old ones. Christmas and Thanksgiving evolved and keep changing even now from what they were as Canada developed. Who is to say what New Year's Day will be like in the next 5 to 10 years?

One thing is clear that probably all retail will be open holiday hours. It still not everyone but that is the direction it is going. I can't say that Christmas will be like that but I'd be not surprised if retail is available year round even if it is holiday hours. It will be important to distinguish it from any other if this is the case. And if the government doesn't do anything about that, the public will.