Oakwood Cafe on South Osborne to Permanently Close

The Oakwood has been an institution along south Osborne since the 1980s. From a brief time it was Samantha's but has been the Oakwood ever since. It hasn't always been perfect. In 40 years, sometimes the minimum wage increases have put the restaurant in a pinch and they have publicly said so. 

It is a very tough business but the restaurant has benefitted from a stellar location. It is across from the Safeway, leisure center and library in a neighbourhood that has had a real uptick in the last ten years. But alas, as restaurant owners get older, the desire to pass on the place grows and sometimes there is just no one to take over. 

I have no idea if there was an attempt to sell the restaurant. It may be the landlord already had someone in mind for the spot as well. This happens more often than people realize. Various landlords in Winnipeg are shuffling tenants. Retail shopping areas including St. Vital Shopping Centre are being bought and sold. In some cases tenants are finding they are not renewed.

Even for restaurateurs who own the land they are on sometimes find it better to close and the land re-purposed under new owners. Examples abound this last few years. Whatever the reason, a number of people are mourning the loss of the family restaurant they went for breakfasts and family get togethers. A number of people remembered their favourite dining options.

Family restaurants are often the glue in terms of gathering spots in a community. Not everyone wants a fast food choice or pizza chain. Sometimes you want a table for several and diverse meal choices. The closing of the Oakwood Cafe is the end of an era.

Manitoba Hydro Building Unsafe

I recently wrote that restaurants inside the recently converted Marcello's at Manitoba Hydro should feel more secure than some of their old locations in downtown Winnipeg. I said the issue for Manitoba Hydro might be security outdoors. I was wrong. A knife attack inside the building overwhelmed security who are not equipped to deal with violence. I had thought the mere presence of security and a lot of people, 2000 when full staff are present, would be sufficient for safety. I was wrong. 

Businesses and residents of various places in the city, downtown in this case, are suffering from violence and theft. It isn't useful to downplay it since even very progressive voices, those who live downtown and support businesses there are finding it exasperating that their cars and personal safety are constantly under pressure. The Ashdown Market cited crime as a big issue of why they are shutting down this week. 

The police are responding to arson and bus assaults and they have made some progress. However, some of this has come after a number of convenience stores and restaurants have been burned to the ground. Former hotels have been burned to the ground so that there is no possibility they could be turned into transitional housing. The empty spaces left could be there decades.

The fact that higher levels of security are needed inside buildings with camera and security people in them is scary. It isn't an obstacle for those who don't fear consequences at any time. Calling the police is already too late for those who attack first and have the knife out. The Hydro case is all too common where a subject has a knife and a response can't nearly be fast enough. Or the security that is present is ill equipped for an actual attacker.

People can't feel they will be randomly assaulted any time they are out in the city. Make no mistake people are well aware of where assaults take place and are talking about it.  Manitoba Hydro has no choice to respond or employees and customer will not want to come downtown. In fact, some are questioning the move from Taylor. Others have said they should move the HQ right out of Winnipeg, some joking it should be right out of the province. 

Given the efforts to make the arena area even more a recreation hotspot and supporting existing and incoming business developments, it is in very much a priority to improve safety and security. This isn't just superficial appearances. If businesses and people can't feel they won't be burned down, assaulted or suffer constant threats, you might as well demolish everything downtown. Would be that be the solution. It simply would move the problems even more so across the city.

It would appear that new security will be present this week who can restrain and detain those set out to do harm. And it can't seem like a revolving door. It is staggering that the person arrested for burning down places was re-arrested for more crimes a day later. It just makes people feel there is no hope because there are no consequences for hurting people. It was a huge deal arresting a suspect in the arsons case and just as huge a failure when he was released to do it again. 

Looking at the Manitoba Hydro building by itself though is a distraction. Even if the inside is made safe, it doesn't necessarily mean a worker doesn't get attacked outside the doors. And it isn't limited to the Hydro building. The new Pan Am Clinic is coming to Portage Place and if people are attacked with knives in and around the building, they will hold all level of governments accountable.

Canada is going through a pretty profound addictions, homelessness and violence spike. Truly, overall crime might be down in the country but people won't feel like safe and secure when they hear of random attacks in schools and workplaces. It isn't alarmist if nurses grey list their workplaces. It is a cry for help for real problems. A detachment of police at Health Sciences Centre is probably only the beginning of a full safety audit. Health professionals are going to court to get Shared Health to comply with security measures in the workplace.

It certainly feels like an escalation where we worry about security inside the workplaces and schools. As the awful shooting in B.C. demonstrates, our sense of security hangs by a thread. The trauma of assault and violence doesn't just go away. Communities across Canada are hurting from fear of repeating offences against them. We can't feel unsafe in our homes, our schools and work as well.

It is now up to both public and private sectors to restore not just actual security but a sense of security as well. That could mean continuous assessment of safety which might mean keycode passes to various areas of schools and workplaces. It might mean security that involves more security capable of intervening and not seemingly observing your assault. Cameras are mostly responsive after something has happened. Certainly we need a surge of resources. This is not a time of a committee doing a report that will be available a few years from now. Nurse are already making decisions about where to work now. They won't wait years to protect them from being assaulted. They will leave en masse.

This has to be high priority and will likely be a multi-pronged approach. It is clear though that people are not being overwrought and decisions about where people will live and work are being made about experiences they are having. There really is no more time to waste.

Peter Young Passes Away 2026

Peter Young was the sports guy who turned CKY into a powerhouse of local in 1974 when he came aboard as sports director from background in sports reporting in Thunder Bay. The job was part time and he attended school at University of Manitoba for a Master's program at the same time. The heavy competition between radio, TV and print to cover sports in Winnipeg became a big deal when the WHA Jets came on the scene in 1972. Very few games were televised back then so it relied on radio, TV and print to cover the games in reporting form.

There have been a few reports on his passing. Take note of Marty Gold's story in the Winnipeg Sun. He does a far better job than CTV news with their 47 second story about the death of the person who helped the station take number one and keep it all these decades. His interview two years ago with Peter Young shows there is still important stories to tell on people in the city that can't come from generative AI. The sooner the owners of AI pay creators of content rather than just scraping the Internet of material they don't own, the better.

Peter Young was responsible for a lot of the sports and entertainment hires in Winnipeg. Don Percy and Rod Black both came to the city either with job offers or referrals. In one funny story related on Marty Gold's story, he helped a Blue Bomber player get a job in another city when his time ran out here. I expect the memorial service will bring out all the stories and hope some get to be made.

Peter Young was not content to do just a re-cap of a few professional sports, he set out to cover local amateur sports in a major way. It really forced other media to increase coverage. Now, most newscasts in Winnipeg don't mention much about sports at all, even professional ones. But it wasn't always that way.

My recollection of Peter Young is the multiple sports he covered including three Olympics and the Wide World of Sports where he was prolific. School athletes were always given priority and reporting on coaching and teams with player highlights was not just a tiny spot on the one hour broadcast. It was a focus of that was superior to the public broadcaster for local sports.

Sports coverage is evolving for sure. However, one thing can be said about the new digital coverage. None of it focuses on local sports. It is generally all professional sports. Peter Young showed that it was possible to do it. He gave many reporters both men and women their first chance at broadcasting. He covered so many different sports that he was indispensable in telling the story to Winnipeg and throughout Canada. 

His kind of reporting will be missed.

Harper Nostalgia from Conservatives

The Conservatives have been have been all mushy nostalgic for Stephen Harper this past week during the Calgary convention to affirm Pierre Poilievre as party leader. It is the Conservative convention so they can mush all the want. However, the Conservatives certainly leave out a lot of stuff when they talk about Harper, not the least of which is how he got thumped by Justin Trudeau for a terrible campaign and based on his record. And thereafter, Trudeau beat the new two Conservative leaders. It was the Liberals themselves who replaced Trudeau and thereafter Carney beat yet another Conservative leader in Pierre Poilievre.

The last time the Conservatives held power was back when Harper was Prime Minister. The National Post are been particularly strong in singing the praises of Harper the past weekend crediting him with a golden era in Canadian governance. They are very strong in condemnation of Trudeau. There is plenty to criticize Trudeau about but on things like military spending, Trudeau's government easily surpassed Harper who had .08% GDP spending even while we were in Afghanistan. Trudeau was at 1.3% and Carney is to bring it to 2% by March and head past that to 5%. Somehow the way the conservative media frames it, Harper was superior. He wasn't but they seek to downplay that. 

In terms of deficits, Harper media supporters say it was the result of the 2008 stock and economy crash. They credit Harper for managing the crisis while saying that Carney had nothing to do with it. I expect if Carney didn't help, Harper would not have offered him the job of Finance minister or be so effusive in praise of his job as Bank of Canada governor. It is all such nonsense. Such obvious digs sound just like they are: blindly partisan.

The seeds of most leaders demise show themselves early. The electorate initially appreciates or tolerates it in the early going. Most voters are are not extremists. They tend to vote for their own reasons. Having said that, the seeds of Harper's demise came from the social conservative side and his desire to end collection of data in some quarters. The cancelling the long form census and gagging government departments from reporting stuff not approved by his office was very concerning. The focus on immigrants and what they wore turned off a number of people as well as associating with the extremist side with the cultural barbaric practices hotline. Holy ICE in Canada! For Trudeau, it was the performative side of things. He went to India and was annoying in his costume and family holiday. Serious trade and security issues needed to be talked about and they were outshone by superficial stuff. Eventually, with high cost of living, the charismatic Trudeau looked destined for a thorough defeat.

Usually the leader are blind to their own weakness. And why would they think that anything other than victory was possible. Both Harper and Trudeau clobbered opposition. Liberals are not nostalgic for Trudeau insofar that they want him back. I personally believed that some of his personal foibles would have resulted in loss of position by almost every other Liberal MP if they had committed them. Still, I approved in general the change in cannabis law, the handling of the pandemic and the free trade agreement in Trump's first term. As for the cost of living and handling the crime and drug addictions, I was like many people not very happy.

It has been interesting to note in recent days that Harper and Chretien were on stage together talking about national unity. It is hard to imagine this in the U.S. right now. In fact, both men mentioned the issue of Donald Trump and how the country should come together. It was fairly funny to but it also emphasizes Poilievre's problem. While he can embrace nostalgia for Harper, he is having a hard time being critical because there are so many Trump supporters in his party, some who even welcome being the 51st state.

Based on the way the Conservatives are acting, it is clear they don't want to pull the trigger on an election right away. If the act with bravado and block things, Carney might be compelled to call a snap election and call their bluff. Minorities don't have long. If no more floor crossers join the Liberals, the election could be in 2026. Poilievre is meeting Carney to discuss the session. It doesn't seem likely he would do that if he was going to vote non-confidence in the next month.

In the mean time, conservative media will continue to say what a grand time a Harper conservative government was and say nothing bad ever happened. The relationship between Canada, the U.S. and China was never as good as some on the right have said. Harper never did get a pipeline in Canada or the U.S. either. Trudeau got the one in Canada completed. Harper kept the worst instincts of the party down until he didn't. 

Carney and Chretien were present this week when Stephen Harper had his portrait unveiled in Ottawa on 20th anniversary since he was in office. Peter McKay was present too. But no Poilievre. It was probably not a thing he wanted to show a non-partisanship appearance at. A missed opportunity to grow his base. However, his base in furious and angry. About everything. They want to control the courts and judges. They want to end bilingualism. Go to zero immigration. They will go to extremism if they see the Conservatives give on these issues.

It is hard to believe that the Harper nostalgia doesn't teach anything new to present day Conservatives. They certainly don't seem to be listening to Harper now.

Push For More Housing in 2026

I have spoken about housing on many an occasion in this blog. For many years we have seen next to nothing built in multi-unit housing. It is only in the last several years that apartment housing has really accelerated in Winnipeg. However, there are numerous examples of housing being blocked and some developments take well over a decade to get approved. It isn't very timely and for the apartments that do get approved, it doesn't come close to meeting demand.

Winnipeg continues to grow despite whatever thoughts there are to the contrary. According to the latest statistics, Winnipeg is fifth in Canada in growing municipalities. In the last years it has meant tens of thousands of new people looking for places to live. The result has been a very low vacancy rate even as apartments come on stream. 

This isn't just a Winnipeg or a Manitoba thing. It has been happening all over Canada. Or it was. The federal government putting heavy restrictions on international students and has been having a dramatic impact on prices and housing availability in parts of the country. Apartments, condos and houses themselves are coming down in price and more capacity is being built. In markets like Toronto and Vancouver, it could have an effect on what is being built by the private sector.

As for Winnipeg, we haven't seen a real change in price or vacancy rate as yet. It is probably because we are barely recovering from the superheated economy when it comes to housing. The new and pre-owned housing market is still steady in Winnipeg. Meanwhile apartments that were approved and financing arranged for over time are now being built. 

One such apartment is being built on Pembina Highway on an old motel site that eventually fell on hard times. The Capri was one of many motels that lined Pembina Highway from the 1960s till recent years. It is the type of hotel that had no hallways where you pulled up and your door was directly into the room. Only a handful exist today. The Capri had several police related visits due to crime and fire and was demolished in recent years. Now, it will be 10 storey mixed used apartment building with an enclosed parkade. Altogether, it will be 240 units. 

Pembina Highway has very slowly gained height. It has for decades been lined with one and two storey commercial and retail units with some of the taller conglomerations dating back more than 40 years ago. Not surprisingly, they have been popular with people starting out on their own or downsizing as seniors. Some of the apartments have courted seniors and have services for them such as busy to take them shopping and to medical appointments.

As mentioned many times here, the Baby Boom generation will be increasingly downsizing from larger houses and many would like to stay close to their neighbourhoods. In several neighbourhoods this is impossible. I'm talking to you River Heights. Some places are strictly single family homes and even on commercial streets like Corydon, there are fights about anything over two floors.

There are several other taller apartments under construction up and down Pembina Highway from Jubilee to the Perimeter. It seems right after the pandemic, a whole bunch of projects were approved in the last three years. Some are strictly private while others have taken advantage of civic, provincial and federal programming supports. From 1993, the federal government exited the housing market aside from mortgage assistance and rules from CMHC. They gave transfers to the provinces who largely used money for other things including tax cuts. 

The 1990s were a tough time in Winnipeg. The recession dragged on and housing prices actually went down and nothing was being built. It really took till 2000 when prices began to climb out of the basement. The commitment to getting our house in order paid off because in the stock market crash of 2008, Manitoba was doing fairly well with deficits ending and housing prices up and building going up. It took a lot longer in the United States for recovery and even other parts of Canada. in 2009, Manitoba led the Canadian economy.

The problem is that the pent up demand was for detached housing and apartments that were one and two bedrooms at market rates which were not as affordable as older places in Wolseley, Osborne Village and elsewhere. More concerning was that older places and houses that had been affordable were falling apart and coming down to be replaced by units unaffordable. This includes the various hotels along Main Street used by people with low income. There is a direct correlation to their loss and to people living on the streets.

The federal accelerator fund administered by the municipalities faced cancellation if the Conservatives were elected in 2025. It was popular even with Conservative MPs and has now had two or three tranches of approved projects that are shovel ready. A few are in the Exchange District. The previous ones are in various stages of progress. The area around Waterfront Drive started around 1999 and now has 25 years going. It attests to fact that areas along the river can attract private investment although Waterfront has required various public support with a mix of old and new buildings as well as building a road that had been gravel right to the 1990s.

Prior to Waterfront though, building in the Exchange for housing was patchwork, Condos built at the Ashdown, co-op built a street over and undeclared housing used by artists scattered through the area. Even until the 1980s there was a significant garment sector in the warehouses. The first location of the Spaghetti Factory was in the Exchange from 1970 on. And now it will see housing built on its site with 114 units. It is unclear how many floors but the building at one time had four floors before fire reduced it to one.

The latest tranche of partially funded housing is 1000 plus units with 3/4 of them affordable or geared to income. Many are in the Exchange District in properties like the St. Charles Hotel that has had development drag on 20 years. The federal money seems to have helped a lot of projects get off the ground. In two years, nearly 10,000 units have been approved with many under construction. This is almost at the goal Winnipeg has set for itself.

It hasn't been easy getting projects off the ground. It will never be a case of one and done. Places like Vienna have made a commitment to building housing for over 100 years and it has helped keep the city affordable. We relied all to heavily on low inflation, low interest rates and a number of downturns in the economy to keep housing within reach. Even so, places like Toronto and B.C. got pricey.

There are some trying to make out in nostalgia that everything was so much better back in the Chretien days or the Harper days. The seeds of our hosing problems literally go back to the Mulroney days when all federal housing was sold off and federal money only went out as transfers. In the Chretien years transfers were cut and provincial housing dried up. In the 2000s housing was boosted under Martin and Harper as inflation and interest rates declined but no housing was built that was aimed at affordability. 

There has been 25 years of prices rises which has been good for home owners who bought low but is terrible for anyone getting in the market. Now, with prices going down, it is a buyers market. It will be important that the government not prop up the real estate market by cutting supply but it might be painful for some who bought high expecting it would only go up in value. In the end though, it is better for good Canada for a decline in prices that often went up month by month.

It is going to take a while yet to catch up with how many affordable houses disappear to demolition before new places go up. And because we have so many traumatized people from being on the streets, not working and using drugs, we are going to have to have support workers. More importantly, it is better to keep people in housing because once out, it is hard to find options for them if we keep going sideways.

Carney in the Post Davos World

 

Much has been made of Mark Carney's speech in Davos, Switzerland about the current situation the world sees itself after one year of Donald Trump's return to office. It is interesting to note that is has had a world-wide response and the speech was re-printed in Le Monde and the New York Times. Donald Trump has reacted negatively and disinvited Carney to his Board of Peace. This may be a blessing for Carney. And Trump is escalating. He says he will launch 100% tariffs on Canada for the recent trade deal with China which does not involve sending any goods to the U.S. but a lowering of tariffs to pre-2024.

In Canada, Pierre Poilievre credited Carney with with an excellent speech and then went on for pages after criticizing him and his government. His main argument is that Carney has done nothing and his party has done nothing. This could be posturing for the election leadership review that Poilievre faces in two weeks. Every opportunity to bring down the minority government he has passed on. We'll see if he is ready to take the government down in February.

We don't have as many silos of only right wing or left wing views as the U.S. has. The American-owned National Post just doesn't have the reach nor does right wing radio or podcasting media in Canada have near the influence it does south of the border. Our bookstores have smaller politics section than U.S. ones where every politician or media person has a book out, it seems. Even social media is light on politics in Canada even on X (Twitter), TikTok and YouTube. Most Canadians seem to get their news from a diverse number of sources and stubbornly hug the middle in most things.

Nevertheless, Conrad Black, who received a pardon from Trump, says that Canada and NATO countries have been have been letting the U.S. do all the work. He seems to forget Afghanistan when Canada honoured Article 5 and went to fight. The first four Canadians killed in Afghanistan were killed by "friendly fire" from American forces. A total of 158 Canadian Forces killed along with 6 civilians seem to have been forgotten. Not just by Trump but by Conrad Black. The Super Conservative forgetting all this is appalling as is the soft pedaling of the disgust many Canadians feel about the threats that Black largely ignore. He gaslights us by calling it derangement syndrome.

The election in 2025 very much felt like a vote for stability when Mark Carney was elected. Canadians seemed to have a visceral response to the chaos south of the border. Many are angry at the aggressive bullying from Donald Trump. It has changed travel and shopping patterns and continues to alter them. It seems like whatever conservative media there is clearly is not reading the room at the rage against the U.S. and Trump in Canada. Every time the Conservatives blame Carney, they are likely setting their own prospects back.

The Winnipeg Sun seems to recognize that Trump's criticism of Carney helps the Liberals get their majority. The editorial believes it might be a conspiracy. The truth is a lot of conservatives are not looking for a united Canada. Some want separation. Some want 51st state. Polls consistently say that the majority in every province are against that. Even when Conservatives have power provincially and federally, there has been a separatist minority so blaming Liberals for them doesn't wash.

Pierre Poilievre had said the Liberals under Carney are not doing anything which is not exactly true. The budget passed but other pieces of legislation have been held up in the minority parliament. Parliament seems stalled as so often happens in a minority. The Carney government has announced GST relief that Poilievre says he will support. Since it is a financial measure, a vote down would likely trigger an election which Conservatives don't seem prepared for.

Trump might be miffed with Carney and his ambassador and cabinet are uttering threats and encouraging separation of Alberta. The ambassador seems perplexed why we won't just surrender our industry to the U.S. or why we'd consider them a threat? Not entirely sure some in Trump's team will every get why were not on board with their plans. Ultimately, it could be Carney is waiting for the Supreme Court to weigh in on the tariffs. Based on the questions the Supreme Court had for Trump officials, it seems likely they are worried that it might be an overreach on Congress and their constitutional power. However, given how the administration looks to dump the Second Amendment when it is a anti-Trump rally and shoot a protestor, who knows?

Although Poilievre has been critical of it, Carney has been travelling lots. He will continue to do in 2026 with India and Australia in search of business and security deals. The Europeans just signed a massive trade deal with India this week and Canada may be close to doing so as well. In Australia, Canada is buying a billion dollar defense system to be used in the north to detect intrusions. It is hard to believe that Poilievre would sit at home in some chauvinistic way to appeal to his base rather than making business, security and business deals around the world. His fear of being called a globalist would do harm to Canada.

Poilievre using the same talking points of the last election may not serve him well. The Canadian public has pivoted and it has a lot to do with Trump. And Poilievre still doesn't know how to respond well to Trump because a lot of his base loves the man. As we swing to separation talks in different regions, the fear is that the U.S. will meddle. They already are. And Poilievre can't be seen to lead the conga line for that. 

The Trump people have so many fires to put out that they started and the mid-term elections are happening this year. Time is running out to run on a winning message. The Supreme Court is to weigh in at any time on tariffs any time up till mid-February. This could result in a reversal of Trump tariffs. As it stands now, China has ordered many shiploads of canola at a reduced tariff and should stay within American red line limits. Prime Minister Carney might just have to wait things out till then.

For now we have to put up with Treasury Secretary Bessant and Commerce Secretary Lutnick gaslighting us about how it is Canada that started this fight with drugs crossing the border and our unfair trading practices. A list of Trump officials will have nothing good to say no matter what concessions are made. And Trump himself is likely to take it as weakness to try for a takeover. It isn't just negotiating strategies. After Venezuela, everything has to be looked at as a shakedown.

The Conservatives in Canada have been saying they are not Trump MAGA while re-posting MAGA comments. Liberal support is up mostly at the cost of the NDP and Bloc in the post Davos speech polling. The Conservatives have called it virtue signaling and said if the Liberals are not adopting the the Poilievre plan, they are doing nothing. Given the tax and GST cuts, the Liberals are not exactly doing nothing. And the canola shipments are hard to argue with except if Conservatives are saying they wouldn't sign tariff reduction deals with China.

A number of media outlets have indicated that Carney has a long list of additional travels in 2026, Some Conservatives are critical saying he should be back in Canada in Parliament facing a blocking opposition. This ignores the amount of Team Canada trips that Stephen Harper did that Conservative are extolling now. India and Australia trips are coming up and there are hints that trade agreements are pending. We can't completely replace American trade. It is simply too big and North American is too integrated to not reach a deal. However, we can't act like we are the ones blocking a deal.

It is still likely an election happens this year unless there is another few floor crossers to the Liberals. Minority governments never last long. Until then, Carney will run a government trying to mitigate the chaos in the U.S.

China

There is no doubt that China uses tariffs to punish other countries for infractions. They also use hostage diplomacy as we saw from the Two Michaels situation when two businessman were abducted when Canada responded to an extradition request from the U.S. for a Chinese exec. The Americans left us out to dry with that and we are still facing the consequences of that.

And this is part of the problem we face today is superpowers trying to acquire land, assets and influence. To an extent this has always been the way over the centuries with continental blocs held together by similar interests with one dominant who pushed their agenda the most. The Western Bloc, the Eastern Bloc and the Asian Bloc or whatever names they were called over time.

In recent years, the western alliance of NATO has been in ascendancy in that has grown and Europe by itself has become a a powerful bloc. Canada, by virtue of being a G7 country, founding member of NATO and for European ties, is part of a trans-Atlantic alliance. The U.S. is by far the largest entity in the Western alliance militarily and economically. At its best it is an example of democracy and economic innovation. At its worst, it can be authoritarian and a military menace.

Since the 1980s Canada has had a series of free trade agreements that has cemented our position as a primary trading partner with the U.S. and Mexico. It has become such a large percentage that some businesses have not really sought to expand their business elsewhere. That is, except for agriculture, where the U.S. market is saturated and protected that Canada exports around the world. 

The top two market of China and the U.S. in recent years punish Canada on trade for not obeying them. Canada is no longer naïve about China. Even in the Harper years there was a belief we could sell incredible amounts of product to China and not be dependent on the U.S. and Mexico. However, Canada quickly learned that China was looking at Canadian technology and manufacturing to access that information and then use it in their own products and limit Canadian trade. We weren't the only ones. The U.S. and Europeans also learned that China was not looking for a true free trade agreement.

So in 2026, Canada is back talking with China with a more nuanced approach. It is looking to trade more with China, especially with food but also on cheap EVs. However, like we did with the Koreans and Japanese in the 1980s, we are looking to draw more manufacturing to the country. If Ontario auto plant workers are working for BYD or GM, what does it matter? This should not be a hard thing. If the U.S. is trying to end all manufacturing of cars in Canada, why should we not seek out other manufacturers? The expectation that we only buy expensive cars from the States is nonsense.

The premier of Ontario Doug Ford is outraged about the deal to let Chinese electric vehicles in but it really goes back to 2022/23 in terms of what was in place prior. Ontario benefits now as Chinese purchases canola resume. Beef sales are also resuming. This is a good thing in a years long tariffs war. It isn't perfect or addresses interference in elections, espionage or human rights. Nothing is said on Taiwan. Canada isn't rolling over on these issues but is more likely to pick their battles more carefully. It is why Carney is going from country to country to limit our exposure to only one export market and to form buffer against dependency. This is hard when 75% of your export trade goes to the U.S.

In the 1980s there was a lot of fear about Honda, Toyota and Hyundai and Canada got them to build manufacturing plants in Ontario. I think there will wide acknowledgement that it helped makes cars affordable and the quality across the board went up. Ideally, a portion of the manufacturing comes to Canada. Some critics say it won't and say the country will lose manufacturing just as Australia did. That is possible even if Canada doesn't import Chinese EVs.

If the U.S. ends the free trade agreement with cars, all the manufacturers could move to the U.S. which is probably not great for GM, Ford and Stellantis (Chrysler). As it stands now, Canada depends on billions of subsidies to keep the car plants in Canada. Norway, Denmark and Australia don't have car industries and remain prosperous and even more productive. However, losing all your manufacturing has consequences. One example is that Canada used to produce all its vaccines. When Covid happened, we had no ability to produce anything and China cut us off.

For those who lobby strictly for only private aspects for the market, it can leave you vulnerable you to market manipulation that ends up being anti-competitive. Even within Canada anticompetitive behaviours by business. The right balance of government and business is difficult to gage. Perhaps the ones that create the fewest imbalances in society are the best.

Around 5% of export trade goes to China. That represents a lot of agriculture. For pork products that means the whole pig unlike Canada where not all is used. Because of China's past, we have to ensure that we seek out even more markets for our goods. Some things such as potash or oil products can go anywhere. As can critical minerals. The truth is we haven't looked much because we believed the U.S. market was always available. Selling gold recently has helped Canada in its international trade. India, for example, imports a lot of gold.

I don't think anyone is naïve about China in the Canadian government about the risks involved. The Carney government has to mindful of espionage, military escalation and other issues that come up. It is likely Carney won't be vocal in public about what some of the red lines are. However, I expect spies and aggressive behaviour over territory will not be ignored.

The world has been doing a lot of talking about what Canada is doing on the global stage. From Davos to Beijing, we are not doing what has been done in the past. We can't. The threats have just been too great.

Gen Z Leaving Winnipeg

Gen Z is often considered to be people born between 1997 and 2018. Everything they do as of late is drawing attention. It is a generation that is changing alcohol consumption, shopping and education because they don't do what previous generations do. To that end, each generation does their own thing. In some cases, like the Baby Boom generation, the generation is so large that it crashes through each decade like a bulldozer. Sometimes they are so small, like Generation X, they are not mentioned at all.

So if a place like Winnipeg can draw students (along with the province), how do we lose them? Jobs, wages and opportunities are a big factor. Perhaps the biggest. We can't compete with mountains and weather. 

One of the things that attract Gen Z to Manitoba has been post secondary education. From Brandon to Winnipeg and through the province there fairly decent post secondary schools. 

Gen Z in Manitoba is leaving in substantial numbers and questions are being asked as they always are about why people are leaving. The simple truth is that continued job and education opportunities await further afield. It is very competitive in that area and always has been. Alberta today probably has over 200,000 people originally from Manitoba who have re-located there.

CBC Manitoba had a panel January 13 of Gen Z students. Most of them said they are not leaving per se but did explain the rationale for those that do. In terms of higher education, sometimes Masters and Doctoral programs are elsewhere. Research money is elsewhere. To its credit, the University of Manitoba had a successful year this year in recruiting Canadians to the campus and the increase in research money has been among the highest in Canada.

The University of Winnipeg has had a decades long program of building student housing. So has Canadian Mennonite University. The University of Manitoba has lagged while private builders have begun to take on the job. However, affordable housing means units need to be built all the time with no 10 or 20 year gaps as we have seen.

One of the things the CBC panel mentioned over and over was transit. It is easy for those who have cars to dismiss those who take the bus. Young people are too young to drive or too poor to drive. The penalties and costs of campus parking has been a decades long agony for students and faculty. However, the priority on housing has been painfully slow even with so much land available.

So riding buses that require multiple transfers or require long walks or waits is looked on unfavourably. Trips to Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and elsewhere make the difference clearer when young people take trains and subways. If you don't have a car for any number of reasons, you long for good transport and affordable cost. Some would just like bike paths that connect them to parts of the city or walkable trails.

Young people, when not in school, are looking for those first employment opportunities and wage growth that help pay for rent and future home ownership. Manitoba has been known for low pay and the excuse has been lower cost of living. But it also comes with slow advancement. For those who advance in companies such as banks, insurance companies and government the promotion sometimes means a move to places like Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa. This, in and of itself, doesn't always represent a problem. While some who go away never return except as visitors, some return for a variety of reasons.

In the 1980s during the recession, Winnipeg and the province lost massive population as big employers shut down. Many people had no choice to leave as they had no job. And tens of thousands didn't come back. Calgary and Edmonton surpassed us in population. As did Ottawa. And almost Hamilton and Quebec City. The decline has ebbed since but most of Winnipeg's growth has come from immigration and birthrate and not transfers from other provinces.

Gen Z is more mobile and while there are good reasons for them to stay such as family, higher education and family, the lower wages, lack of advancement and general fewer amenities in recreation and transportation to name a few. Various interviews reinforce Gen Z observations.

As mentioned, Winnipeg can't change its climate or geography and create oceans and mountains. However, it can make sure that it corrects its missteps on buses. Buses that drive back busy stops of students, buses that are never on time, buses that don't work with student schedules, bus shelters that are broken, unsafe, bus travel that can result in violence. And as far as fast or convenient, it pales to many other places.

Up until the last few decades there were deeply affordable housing in Winnipeg. Osborne Village was known for where many people started in their first rentals. There were a few areas around town like that. While there are some less costly areas to live, the rent has gone up and the availability gone down. Since 2005, new buildings don't have any rent control for 20 years and there is a $13,500 tax credit per unit. Not surprisingly, there is apartment building going up all over the city. 

However, it takes 20 years of consistent building where you start to see deeply affordable housing at sufficient capacities. Keep in mind though that even when rent was affordable, we lost young people to other provinces because of job opportunities, wages and perceived exciting city life. Still, a commitment to affordable housing often draws back people who live elsewhere for a while and wish to get more bang for the buck. Winnipeg and the province can't take a hiatus from building as they did for nearly 20 years.

In the U.S., Gen Z is re-populating mid size cities like Raleigh and Madison. Perfect climate and geography have been less important that being able to walk places, shop locally and have things to do. In Winnipeg, The Fringe Festival and Nuite Blanche are exactly what that population likes to see. Food truck weekend, bike event and the like are high on their lists.

For work, they want flexible workplaces, clear directives and commitments with opportunities for growth. The generation is prepared to come and stay in places like Winnipeg. This is not a case of big cities and nothing else will do. The generation will respond to an authentic and dedicated appeal to them.

What they won't respond to is a city they can't travel in, afford in housing or prepared to cut them the moment there is a business rationalization to maximize profit at their expense. They are looking at communities and at their present ages, they can't see it in long commutes to suburbs.

There are things that Winnipeg is doing to appeal to Generation Z. Some of them are here already but patience in improving wages, opportunities and transportation might be too slow to keep them here initially.

Toys R Us Closing at Polo Park

Opened in 1989. Toy R us Polo Park has had success even when American and UK divisions of the company folded. Sadly, many stores are now closing in Canada as competition eats away at them. At one point there were around 100 stores coast to coast. That number might be around 40 now.

Even as some other stores are folded into Toys R Us like Babies R Us and HMV, the company has had a hard time competing with Amazon and Walmart. In general, some toys stores have struggled in the past year such as Mastermind. There could be a variety of reasons why not the least of which is that the stores are too big and rent too high.

There have been some big changes since Toys R Us opened in 1989. Back then the Red River Ex, stadium and arena were all in the area and drew large crowds much of the year. Polo Park Mall still draw crowds. It has been some time since the arena and stadium closed and the spaces around that area remains largely vacant. This possibly has had an impact on traffic.

There will be some who mourn the loss. It is always surprising that Americans who come here have their faces light up when they see the store. In 2026, it is reported that Toys R Us will be opening stores again in the U.S. This could boost prospects in Canada too if there is a new approach and format that appears to work.

The Regent store remains for now. Perhaps this closure will forestall any more closures. All retail is facing a bit of chaos in terms of post pandemic climate, supply chains, inflation, tariffs and relevancy. Amazon has turned into a monster but in house experience can still be possible. For example, Spirit Halloween, is not just about costumes but the experience of being scared by some of the noise and pop up monsters. Amazon doesn't do that. A new offering of Toys R Us needs to entertain as well as have product on sale.

There is a new approach to the Polo Park area to mix in retail and residential. The Toys R Us site doesn't have an automatic store to jump into the space. It could be we see more apartments go up now that it is permitted after resistance from Winnipeg Airport. It is sad though that a long time store with memories for a lot of people over four decades disappears now.

The 2026 Winnipeg Civic Election

The city election is October 28, 2026. On May 1st of the year, candidates can begin raising and spending for their campaign. Two candidates who have previously run have indicated they will be back in the race. Don Woodstock and Mike Vogiatzakis have indicated they will run. The two businessmen have issues rated to crime that could be compelling running against Scott Gillingham.

The last election had candidates across the spectrum of left and right. Former mayor Glen Murray took a shot and came close to winning it. Perhaps Shaun Loney split the progressive vote with Murray. The Gillingham win was a narrow one. The election was as wide open as they come.

The incumbency factor in civic politics is one of the toughest when seeing competitive races. A sitting mayor is often in the job until they decide not to be. Incumbent councillors are reluctant to resign and run against incumbent mayors. They know it is an up hill battle. The present mayor had to leave his St. James ward to run for mayor. Unlike in the U.S. where a sitting senator can run for president and not resign from the senate unless elected president, our system doesn't not allow a MLA, councillor, MP or other elected official to run for mayor unless they resign from their old position. I'm convinced it would not stand a legal challenge but no one has ever taken it to court.

If no councillors step down, it is possible we see every person who stands for election re-elected. The voter turnout is so low and the public awareness of new faces is even lower. It is possible that nothing will remove the advantages of incumbency. I'm not in favour of term limits but perhaps allowing people holding other elected offices to run would bring competitive races to positions. Failing that, some form of ballot selection where voters pick their three top choices might work.

In the end it is the province that can change how city's function. And they don't seem too keen to change the dysfunction and lack of funding. It come down to a lack of trust. Some in the province likely think the city will overbuild highways and leave other aspects of the city to rot. The lack of trust between all governments is just not there. There is some evidence that between provinces and the Feds there has been a thaw. You would hope it would extend to cities like Winnipeg.

At the moment, the upcoming civic election will only produce a status quo.

Abercrombie and Fitch, Uniqlo Coming to Polo Park, Eddie Bauer Closing

Polo Park remains the top mall because it continues to adapt and attract tenants. Having said that, it must be exhausting some of the big retailers like Eaton's, Sears, Zellers, The Bay and others who have collapsed over the years. Even now, the mall and St. Vital are trying to figure out what to do about the empty Bay stores. It is likely we hear more in 2026 but it is unlikely that there is any big retailer is about to grab the whole space. Even Simons would not occupy that much space as seen from their recent expansion from Quebec into Ontario.

This story is not about the anchor stores though. This is about the smaller retailers that make up the corridors between the anchors. After Christmas every year changes are made and there will be periods where some retailers are looking to to downsize or close and others are looking to the opposite. There will be attempts in the mall to move retailers around so they can occupy bigger spaces or to be in an area where each retailer attracts a certain type of customer. For example, jewelry stores like to locate in the middle of the mall where two or more corridors intersect.

Polo Park has kept up as the top mall because it constantly invests in the building and seeks out unique stores no one else has. The Apple store does huge business. However, even having one exclusive store can have it's time and close. Eddie Bauer has been around for years and was part of a huge upgrade in 2014. There is only one in the city and on January 7, it closed. It is unknown whether this is a lease that was not renewed or whether Eddie Bauer itself made the decision. 

In the end, it doesn't matter because the mall has been moving tenants around to accommodate incoming retailers. While it is suggested Gen Zs are not going to the mall, Canada cannot merely assume what is true in the States is true here. There is some evidence to suggest that certain stores can indeed attract young people. And malls have been trying to add attractions and activities that attract families. Ask West Edmonton Mall and Mall of America about those.

Malls are like hotels in that renovations and changes within an existing framework need to be done each decade to keep things fresh. It is worth noting that Polo Park was late to the food court crowd in the 1980s. They had mall restaurants as tenants and in department stores but nothing like the other malls until their late 1980s reno. That was the way to attract young people back in the day and still is.

The constant change in recent years hastened by Covid means just as a mall settles one issue or need, they get bulldozed by new announcements of store closures they perhaps didn't not anticipate. As mentioned, Eddie Bauer is closed. The company has been closing closing locations over the last few years. However, the location closure has given Hollister a chance to re-locate and do a re-fresh. The California-look store has been at Polo Park since 2010. It is unknown if they will restore the video walls of Huntington Beach webcam that the company has broadcast since the early 2000s. Most of the stores have dropped the beach hut like entrance for a brighter, open window look. Apparently, Gen Z likes brighter lights. Also gone in the new design is the heavy scent and loud music.

In Hollister's old location near Zara, sister company Abercrombie and Fitch is set to come to Manitoba for the first time. They have had their ups and downs, CEO problems and the like. The store first started in 1892 so they know something about adapting. As a new store to the province, it will attract a lot of interest from young to mid-range age shoppers. Abercrombie has gone through several iterations as most successful brands have done. The opening of the store in 2026 should cement CF Polo Park's hold as the top mall in Manitoba.

To cap it off, the mall is adding Uniqlo, the Asian-inspire store that has fans across the world. This will be the third in a series of Asian stores to open at Polo Park. It likely won't arrive before St. Vital Center's own Uniqlo arrives. The southeast mall continues to be the main rival to Polo Park. The large Asian population of Winnipeg and those that love Asian fashion and beauty is changing the retail industry.

The goal of any mall is to transform and not leave big empty gaps in the building. To that end, what Polo Park does with the old Bay will be one to watch after these latest stores open.

Meltwich Portage Avenue Closed Permanently

At least it is says permanently on a hand drawn sheet in the window.

It may not be the only. The website says temporarily closed. The website also lists the Pembina Highway location has closed too.

We have seen franchisors go down before and the re-opened with new owners. Sometimes they close never to open again. It would seem a grilled cheese sandwich concept would work. 

The location also has Le's Subs for a number of years and prior to it was a Quizno's. That is three for three for failed sandwich places. The parking for both Meltwich locations might have been an issue. It is hard to tell. 

Unless a new ownership group to take over, expect Meltwich to be closed for good.

The Most Overrated Holiday of the Year

Truly the most overrated day of the year is New Year's Eve. It isn't a religious holiday. It doesn't make a special time in Canadian history. It isn't a personal day of importance like a birthday. There are no meals associated with it. Drinking is usually connected the day. 

Those that have to work the day get paid time and a half. Most, if not all, stores are closed. The day can fall anytime of the week so it is not an automatic long weekend. This year Christmas and New Year's Day fell on a Thursday. In 2026, both fall on a Friday creating a long weekend each time.

In general though, New Year's Day has been quiet in Canada. The change in the retail act in 2020 means many stores are open in the day including malls such as Outlet Collection and St. Vital. It used to be that everything was closed on New Year's day and there was nothing in the way of public activities. This began to change in the 1980s and 90s with activities at city parks including fireworks as well as family-friendly activities. 

Today, there is an anti-fireworks movement in Winnipeg. It appeared that there was only one listing for fireworks on New Years Eve. The fireworks in Naples, Italy and in Los Angeles are purely citizen driven. The risk in curbing public fireworks events is that citizens will do it without permission and dare you do to something about it. Diwali fireworks are a good example. Citizen complaints on Reddit, notwithstanding, it is unlikely any police will go arresting Indian Canadians.

In the post pandemic, I'd say we are in a bit of a lull for what to do New Year's Eve and day. Drinking is way down and so are the restaurants and clubs that provide those services. It is a long way back in years when casinos and convention centre had regular events. The Winnipeg Convention Centre used to have major events.

I expect the only way things change is with time. Canada is such a young country. Even now we add new holidays or create names for old ones. Christmas and Thanksgiving evolved and keep changing even now from what they were as Canada developed. Who is to say what New Year's Day will be like in the next 5 to 10 years?

One thing is clear that probably all retail will be open holiday hours. It still not everyone but that is the direction it is going. I can't say that Christmas will be like that but I'd be not surprised if retail is available year round even if it is holiday hours. It will be important to distinguish it from any other if this is the case. And if the government doesn't do anything about that, the public will.