Tuesday, October 14, 2025
Freshair Boutique Academy Road Suddenly Closes
Howard Lutnick Says Canada Has to Be Number 2
Canadians continue to cut Carney slack but employment numbers are bad and the car, steel, lumber and aluminum industries are all suffering. There has been some aid programs for those industries but so far the only thing that has protected Canada from worse results is the free trade agreements that expire in 2026. Even those agreements could collapse with tariffs in the new year.
In a speech a day after the Carney meeting, Howard Lutnick said not to expect an auto deal from Trump in a new trade agreement. He said Canada will give up all car manufacturing and might be left with auto parts. Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, says this is a America First policy and Canada must accept it.
This speech to the Eurasia Group's Canada-U.S. Summit in Toronto. Lutnick made the speech via video call under Chatham House Rules which prevented media coverage. His speech though was confirmed by three sources that saw and heard it. While Trump is the final decider, the Lutnick speech was an indicator that CUSMA, the freed trade agreement, is likely not going to be renewed as it is now. It may not resemble anything like free trade. The U.S. want all of Canadian industry to locate south of the border.
Even as tariffs hurt U.S. businesses such as farming, Lutnick continues to push ahead. Soybeans, corn and beef have lost their Chinese markets. Crops are coming in there and there is no place to market them to. Moreover, the ending of USAID means the government is not buying either for food security. Headed into the 2026 mid-term elections, many farmer will be angry and it will be harder to blame the Democrats for it.
If Canada and Mexico lose auto manufacturing, it is likely the big U.S. auto builder like GM and Ford who will go bankrupt. And American car prices will jump even higher unless labour costs are slashed. It is likely every business affected in the U.S. is lobbying but it may come down to bankruptcies before anything resonates. This doesn't help Canada either but it is an indication of how policy is happening south of the border.
Lutnick and U.S. ambassador Pete Hoekstra are certainly abrasive. The gaslighting about how Canada's not travelling to the U.S. is an impediment to good relations is rich. The joking about the 51st state is brought up unbidden by Trump all the time. The reaction to the threat has caused Canadians to re-think the relationship with America. It seems that these Trump officials are shocked that there is deep feelings of betrayal in Canada. There is actual anger by them about how we changing our travel, shopping and other habits related to the U.S.
The premiers across the country are getting nervous and wonder what Canada has gotten from two meetings with Trump. Some are getting sick of making concessions and receiving nothing in return. Lutnick has said to expect it to be worse and even Canadian consumers choosing not to travel to the U.S. is regarded as a hostile act. Hoekstra has said the same. In short, they have said Canada is going to take it and like it. Or else. Some premiers are advocating for punching back.
Canada may be hoping that a legal challenge on tariffs winding it's way to the Supreme Court. There is no telling how the court will react. The justices surely know that giving the president unlimited powers that usually fell to Congress could be used by a future Democratic president in future years. That Republican majority court might rule against the permanent tariffs. Or they might support the tariffs. The House of Representatives might change to Democratic control and then tariff policy might be overturned there. The truth is 2026 is the mid-term elections and a lot can happen in the U.S.
Carney has to navigate the whole thing carefully. The retaliation tariffs except on sectoral areas like aluminum and steel have been reversed with no reciprocal response yet. If a deal on steel or aluminum is reached, it would be helpful. However, aluminum and steel could be of use in Canada if tin and aluminum drink cans are brought into production in Ontario and elsewhere. This alone could be a $3 billion re-patriation of production.
The 100% tariff on EV vehicles from China was a tandem response with the U.S. and to support our own EV industry. The response from China has been ever increasing tariffs on canola. Premier Wab Kinew has said those tariffs should end. The major problem is that the development of EVs in Canada might end and car production might accelerate in moving to U.S. Canada will be speaking to China this week so some progress might be made there. Pierre Poilievre, however, believes the Chinese vehicles are problematic because the tech can be monitored and controlled in China. The same argument can be made with Tesla and American control. While a legitimate concern, it is one that warrants a further discussion. The tariff imposed was mostly in regards to dumping product at below cost to kill competitors and then raise rates later. It might be better to extract concessions to build Chinese EVs in Canada.
Ultimately, if the U.S. goal is to end the auto industry in Canada, it frees Canada from having to buy anything produced in the U.S. at all. The Trump goal to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and then export that product back to Canada is unlikely. Canada is likely to either build its own product or seek those products where it is less expensive and that won't be the U.S.
American trade issues with China alone are likely to bankrupt many farmers in the next years even with bailouts. Meanwhile, Canada is trying to come to some sort of agreement with India and China. The issue of Canadian sovereignty will matter in whatever discussions we have in regards to trade in the world. For many citizens, the issue will be housing, inflation and economy. Carney already is looking to get out of the weeds. A trade deal is necessary with the U.S. but a bad trade deal is worse than no deal at all. Spreading deals out around the world would be helpful.
Meanwhile, an election is possible is as early as a budget defeat November 4. The polls are very tight and for various reasons the opposition might be itching to go an election before 2026. Carney might be ready for an election too. While they might be ready, the public could react with hostility. Despite the unhappiness in Parliament, the parties might find some reason to vote for the budget or might sneakily have some MPs who don't show up on vote day. Donald Trump could be an issue long into next year. How the electorate responds to that might hurt or help certain parties.
One think is for certain that each time Howard Lutnick opens his mouth to say Canada is going to get hurt in the new trade relationship has Canadians look for other options in world partners.
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
AI and Cryptocurrency Data Sites North Dakota
That is the billion dollar question for North Dakota. It is a supermajority Republican government and the counties have near full control to what they want. The seven large data centers have non-disclosures and all sorts of blocks to finding out who owns them or for what purposes they will serve. The only certainty is they are incredible users of electricity and water. Half the counties in North Dakota have been approached for data centers.
Manitoba and North Dakota have already concerns about the huge expansion of dairy industry near the Red River watershed. In two counties by the river, a 25,000 cow operation and a 12,500 cow operation have been approved. The concerns in both countries is manure spreading to the water of the river and causing nutrients that are are toxic. There is also the issue of water usage. It takes 31 liters of water to make 1 liter of milk. That's a lot of water. Add the hyperscale data sites and there could be water shortages. It is entirely possible the Red could be dry by the time it crosses the border.
Industrial farms don't even come close to the massive energy and water needed of hyperscale data centers. Elon Musk is building massive facilities near Memphis and is tapping that state's (and neighbouring state's) energy and water resources for his artificial intelligence GROK. He said he needs he will have exceeds what out sun generates...or the universe. Yes, he said that.
One thing is clear is that hyperscale data centers eat up huge amounts of water and energy. They are extremely hot and extremely noisy. They employ very few people. While the upfront costs are in the billions for what goes into these campuses, the amount of resources needed seems to exceed what any region can provide. It is that enormous.
It is now beyond the realm of possibility that North Dakota will seek hydro deals with Manitoba to help drive its relentless addition of data centers. This seems unlikely as Manitoba is set to make a sale to Nunavut and has more deals with Saskatchewan coming. We are already about to build gas turbines to cover our own internal shortfalls.
The growth in AI in Canada is also coming. The water and energy resources and cooler temperatures in the country make it inevitable that companies are in the hunt. However, they are also looking for jurisdictions with literally no rules like North Dakota. These companies don't like people people poking into zoning, ownership or what the data center is doing.
The people who know something about AI say it is about doing things with few workers. In short, ending lawyers, diagnosticians, accountants, ad agencies, actors/directors/writers and so on. The short sightedness of this seems obvious. Who will but these services if no humans and jobs. Perhaps AI will sell to other AI. At some point, will they even need humans? Certainly AI can be a tool but if, as Elon Musk says, this tool requires all the energy of the sun and every bit of water in the solar system, is it really good for us?
Hats of to the Fargo Forum for there investigative journalism.
Tuesday, October 7, 2025
The First Chi Chi's Re-Opens in Minnesota
Monday, October 6, 2025
St. Boniface ER Opens
Grace Hospitals ER was new and saw an influx of nurses from closed departments but St. Boniface just wasn't ready for what was to come in 2020. The announcement in 2019 by the Pallister government for a new ER for St. B did not come in time for Covid. The hospital had to work on the fly to handle things when they couldn't even cope with regular flu season.
The one surprising feature of the ER is the upward slope to the doors. Better have grandma's tires locked on her wheelchair or she is taking a 100 km ride down to Tache. It seems funny to spend $141 million and you can't have a flat service? Perhaps there is another entrance so someone with the walker doesn't have to push up hill to get it. And heaven forbid there is ice on that surface or people will shoot down that slide like toboggans.A parking garage for 10 ambulances is a good feature. It is important because this the cardiac center. Every family in the region might have a member who may require an ambulance and being able to get patients into the ER promptly is part what make survival possible.Saturday, October 4, 2025
Tuxedo Park Starbucks Suddenly Closes
As one of the only places you could sit outside, it will be missed. Some have said it was because the location was about to unionize. There is no indication that was about to happen. This was a mall with vitality but has had more than a year of building a condo that just opened. The parking lot has been chaos. But now that it has opened, it seems an even better reason to stay open.
No, the likely reason is that Starbucks wants drive-thrus wherever possible. This doesn't bode well for Charleswood down the road. It has been overwhelmed with Tuxedo refugees. It doesn't have a drive-thru either.Friday, October 3, 2025
Abolish Photo Radar in Manitoba?
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Maximes Closing in 2025
The restaurant has been owned by the Bekios family since 1984. George Bekios passed away in 2024 leaving his two daughters to run the place. Like many Greek owned restaurants, it comes down to no one left in the family to run it for years to come when everyone is near retirement or the founding member passes it away.
St. Mary's is a valuable piece of real estate and it is not surprising a buyer has been found. No word on what the new business might be.
This comes on the heels of another business in a different field closing. Croft Music, after a 110 year in the music industry is closing. Violins by Anton will continue in the same spot on Henderson Highway. A differed type of business than Croft's but related. It will be by appointment only.
There has been an uptick in the last year of business retirements and some locations have turned into hot commodities. Retail sales have been up, restaurants have found growth in breakfasts. Were it not for tariffs, Canada might be even better positioned for growth. As it is. we will have to see some innovation as one generation hands over business to the next generation.
Should Manitoba Liberal Party Change Name?
Federal Liberals are present in the west and are the federal government has been Liberal since 2015. The federal NDP doesn't even have party status presently. This could be a reflection of the fact that our system usually means only two strong parties and very small parties get left behind in the dust. Certainly critics in the west seem to laugh at the provincial Liberals in the west but it could very well be right and left divisions and how our voting system works.
Name changes are not uncommon in Canada. The federal and provincial NDP were once named Commonwealth Cooperative Federation. The federal Conservatives have gone through several name changes but the longest name they had was Progressive Conservatives. Sometimes a name change reflects a change in direction or an alliance. Sometimes it a repackaging to re-freshen the brand.
The Liberals have a new leader in Willard Reaves who at 66 was acclaimed as leaders of the Manitoba Liberals. Acclamation is also not uncommon for political parties in Manitoba. Brian Pallister became leader for the PCs when no one offered to run. He later became premier. While Reaves has run against his fellow Blue Bomber twice in Fort Whyte, it would seem there are no shortage of seats to choose from. The Liberals will likely want to re-claim longtime Liberal strength in River Heights. As vital as Jon Gerrard is, it seems a reach that at 77 he would contemplate another run. Anything is possible but it seems likely that Gerrard helps Reaves in any way possible. It should be noted that Gerrard stood beside Reaves when he announced his candidacy.
Cindy Lamoureux remains the sole Liberal MLA in the Legislature. As a new mom and continuing as a MLA, the leadership was something she passed on. At one point it seemed all four prominent Liberals were interested in the leadership. A kind of exhaustion has set in. Any election is likely two or so years away. A byelection might be closer. Any Liberal leader should expect to be part of a rebuilding process which they may only be able to take so far.
After the last election some have suggested that maybe Manitoba is a one party province. The PCs have certainly dropped to historic lows but having a party win every seat means they only have one place to go: down. With this in mind, the Liberals should not assume the PCs are the only choice for government in waiting. However, if the Liberal name is an impediment to being elected provincially in the west, they should consider a re-branding.
Some say the NDP and the Liberals should unite. Some say the Liberals and PCs should unite. Both suggestions ignore that the Liberals are not tied as closely to unions as the NDP are. As for the PCs, the Liberals are not tied to some of the more social conservative policies. These are not easy differences to paper over. The electoral system in Canada favours two parties and majority results. Electoral reform could help but the two parties where things swing back and forth are not exactly in favour of a system that would dilute their power. National and provincial efforts on electoral reform have stalled.
Research in Europe suggests that party re-brands can help get electoral success. The Saskatchewan Party and the Wildrose parties are an indication of that. The research suggested that just a policy re-brand does not do the trick. For only a brief time in the 1980s has the Manitoba Liberals become Official Opposition and had a chance at government. That is a very long time out of power or as the main contender. In some elections they have had a very compelling policy platform and even run a solid campaign only to see little success. Could a name change help lead the party to more success?
If some of our western provincial counterparts are any example, the answer is yes,