To our friends in the U.S., it should be said that, most Canadians have responded with hurt and anger. Most of the trade that passes between the two countries has no tariffs. However, some items in both countries are protected by quotas. In the U.S. it is sugar and in Canada, it is milk. There is room for negotiation but accusations that Canada is a main source for fentanyl headed to the U.S. is a fiction shown clearly from America's own numbers.
Ever since the election of Trump, Canadians have re-thought their travel and investment in the U.S. for winter housing, business and the like. Smooth travel across the border is always a concern. No one wants to be stopped at the border when they cross. Being asked questions about whether you support Trump and the answer dependent on if you cross is not exactly what anyone wants to hear. Also, knowing that any and all your electronic devices can be searched is enough to discourage people. What if you have business materials that you don't want your competitors to know on pricing, specifications and so on? Does this get passed along to U.S. business? You don't have any rights when you cross as a Canadian. You can be denied for whatever reason. In the past, this was not nearly as aggressive as it is now. Being denied entry because you brought a pre-paid phone instead of your regular phone has happened as well.
Crossing at Winnipeg International Airport or through North Dakota and Minnesota crossings seems to be less of an issue than at other crossings in Canada. Perhaps, those entry points are different than others but who can say? Regardless, traffic is down by a significant margin at those crossings. It isn't just the value of Canadian dollar either. People continued travelling to the States when the dollar was much lower. No, the problem now runs much deeper. Many are choosing not to go because of deeply felt convictions that it is wrong when Canadian sovereignty is threatened.
State and federal officials from the U.S. have appealed to Canada to return as tourists and encourage trade. Many have come to Canada to make their pitch. The thing is that a discount or appreciative banners on streets saying: we love Canadians is not going to remove the fear of border crossings or feelings in regards to 51st state talk. It is a question of respect. It may be that we are in for an even rougher road ahead. The full free trade act comes up for renewal next year.
Every long weekend since the beginning of the year, the car traffic to North Dakota and Minnesota has dropped. It will likely not completely die off. Too many Canadians have family in the U.S., or kids in school, work, conferences, winter homes that they have owned for years or holidays planned for a very long time. All of that will continue. Not to mention it will be hard to keep Canadians from wanting to see Team Canada in the Los Angeles Olympics, of soccer's World Cup in 2026. This applies to Blue Jays game and playoffs and NHL teams over the next months.
It is likely though that many Canadians will limit their travel or spending plans in the U.S. for some time to come unless there is a dramatic de-escalation of tariffs, tensions and other irritants. So states like North Dakota and Minnesota will likely still see reductions in Canadian travel and that could be more pronounced in the weeks and months ahead.
For the U.S., it is probably not just Canadian travellers who are absent this year but so far the overall decline is listed as 30% below last year's levels. From all tourism that is a $30 billion hit. There is no evidence that this is changing. Canadian tourism is up 30% as more in Canada have travelled elsewhere in the country.
America First is looking more like America alone. And Trump says this is only the beginning.
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