U.S. elections always seem surprising affairs. If Canadians voted in U.S. elections, we'd probably be like California: Largely Democratic with a few Republican enclaves. Most polls show Manitobans if the could vote in the U.S. would vote for Democrats. We don't get to vote though and it is why both government and oppositions usually keep fairly quiet because it is possible that either side might be who Canada has to deal with in the aftermath.
There is usually an assessment by both parties of what they did well and what did badly at in victory and defeat. They are often. Bill Clinton's adviser James Carville was right when he said: It's the economy, stupid. With Americans still feeling it with inflation, it just wasn't going to be some Harris could run on. And no matter what the economy was doing, it has been decades of fears about the border and immigration.
Trudeau was credited with managing good relations with Trump for quite some time when he was in his first term. With Trump you only have to stumble once though. A tweet from Trudeau on border issues was enough to raise the ire of the man who was once president and is now again. In the case of the U.S., it is often best not to be on the front pages. However, you also don't want to be forgotten or taken advantage of. Trump has said he will arrest Trudeau if President if he comes to the U.S.. It might be best to confirm that before travelling when Trump is 47th President. He did accept Trudeau's congratulations.
Generally, how Canada manages its relationship with the U.S. is largely the same whatever the party in power in Ottawa. Stephen Harper didn't try to lean into conservative politics south of the border as he does elsewhere in the world. Trudeau didn't lean into liberal politics with Trump most of the time. The focus was trade, defence and areas of mutual interest. The reason is that the relationship is too important to play games. Even the very least comment or media reference can sour the relationship. The best relationship is a professional one.
Canada has tried to have a diverse relationship covering state and federal elected officials. Civil servants, including appointed diplomats, political staff and family members, are also important. Trudeau's government was very good to reaching out to Trump's family. That might not be an option this time with Trump. It was Ivanka and Jared Kushner that Canadian officials worked with and they are not there this time. The same applies for Trudeau as well as he is separated and the leaders often bring their partners in travel.
It is unclear what diplomatic connections Poilievre has to Trump or Republican and Democrats both federally or in the states. He won't be able to handle it the way he handles domestic policies. Sloganeering, lack of forthright dealing with issues or being vague will not save a possible from Conservative government from retribution if they don't come up with a plan to get to 2% GDP on defence or end milk protection. On the bright side for Poilievre, he can possible end all federal work on carbon pricing. It is doubtful that he can do that on electric cars as the U.S. itself is pushing on that. Just ask Elon Musk.
Results in U.S. elections can take a long time. But the Senate was always going to be tough to keep for Democrats so that has swung Republican. The House of Representatives is a mystery till the end but probably a Republican win as well. A Trump win and Republican agenda will have a two year free reign till the mid-terms. No worries on a conservative dominated court either. There are plenty of Democrat run states.
Ukrainian military support probably ends and the U.S. could let Russia take over the country. The 40 million people in Ukraine might be on the run if they are cut off. In terms of Canadian policy, it will be interesting if our military support ends as well. A change in government might do that. It is unknown whether Poilievre will pull funding. What will less likely be tolerated by Liberal and Conservative voters in Canada is not helping Ukrainians who could be refugees. Expect a lot more if they are left few options.
The tariffs Trump proposed starting at 10% across the world could start a trade war not seen since the 1930s. There could be an element of bullying here for concessions but is likely going to see some businesses scrambling. China will take it on the chin but might think there is nothing to lose in taking Taiwan. Unless the U.S. is willing to use military might, Taiwan could end up along with Ukraine being taken over.
Russia itself could see sanctions drop. The U.S. might pull out of NATO or just have a president who doesn't care. It is possible he pulls support from Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia and other countries in Europe. No one knows for sure. However, Putin is likely to look at grabbing more territory and not face consequences. Russia probably sees a resumption of relations with the U.S.
For immigration, the push will be to deport those deemed illegal. That could be up to 11 million immigrants. However, we could see a real cooling of actual legitimate immigration into the U.S. as well. This could represent an opportunity for Canada for skilled people who are in the U.S. but no prospect for American citizenship in a timely way. It could mean Canada sees people fleeing the U.S. and coming across the border wherever they can in Canada.
If there is not a robust response in Canada to illegal immigration, it could mean hundreds of thousands crossing. The lack of planning on this could literally crush whoever is is in government in Canada. The Conservatives may wish they weren't in power if it happens on their watch. What would they do? Put Ukrainians in internment camps?
On health (including abortion), education and justice Canada should stay right out of the conversation. If Trump is president, they do what they want on those areas and we say nothing. Our system is completely different and so long as it doesn't affect us, it isn't our business. Our issues are mutual defence, border security (including migration) and trade above all other concerns. Defence will play a role too although we may have to rely on Britain, France, Japan, Korea and Germany a lot more.
We have increased our military pending quite a bit. It won't reach 2% till 2032 and that is probably not going to be good enough for the U.S. or our other allies. The Liberal caucus and cabinet are meeting and pushing to counter U.S. policy changes that Trump might bring. An acceleration of military spending may not be enough to avoid some sort of punishment. Likewise, there will be some in the new Trump administration looking to see if the Conservatives have a plan for a fast build up. Presently, they don't.
The first 100 days in 2025 of the Trump administration might have massive changes including to taxes. The Republican led Congress and Trump might looks to madly get things done. The Canadian Parliament will have to monitor carefully to see how it affects Canada directly and plan for what might happen in January. The tariff changes could be huge. Already in the U.S., some companies are cancelling their Christmas bonus as companies that buy foreign products for their business are adding the costs to how they run things.
Canada has tried to diversify it's markets many times. Our saw mills are built for the U.S. market and we only need about 30% of the wood products we harvest. The problem is that every time we try to expand to Asia, there are possible supply chain, logistics or political problems that crop up. Trade is up in China but the Chinese continue to have Canada at a lower tier of trade priority. India faces challenges as well. Canada depends on a rules based world. When rules are broken, we suffer.
Over the next months and years, the government of Canada whatever political party that is in power will have to come up with quick responses for policy changes. One of the very early ones could be the digital tax Canada has. Elon Mush and other tech billionaires are likely going to ask for punishing measures takes on Canada to allow unfettered access for Facebook and X and the end of tax and antitrust rules. The Conservatives have said they will get ride of these laws as well as the CBC. It begs the question of whether there will be any media or news in four years. All news outlets might not have sufficient supports to keep running.
It is possible new international agreements are in place on a digital tax but big companies are looking for a complete cease of tax or regulation. Trump might just do anything Elon Musk says. However, keep in mind that Musk believes in climate change and Trump doesn't. This could hurt Tesla. In fact, there are are some ferocious fights to get into the administration. The feeling is that this is where Republicans can change things for the next decades.
Could this change taxation in Canada? It is possible but the income and corporate lower taxes are often lower Canada so perhaps the U.S. just gets to Canadian standards. In any event, it will take a while for any of these changes to work their way through the legislative process as Trump will need Congress to get things passed.
It is clear that the U.S. election results means that Canada has to speed things up when it comes to inflation, cost of living and irritants that they'll want responded to. With Trump, it is unlikely we delay without punishment. The glacial pace of change could mean that pain last years.
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