If it wasn't clear before, it should be clear now...the present Conservative party does not have room for progressives or moderates. It isn't a libertarian party either because there are too many in the party who wish to impose laws on social conservative areas such as abortion. Charest might retain his membership but no one was interested in his moderation. They want a fight and they want it now. And that was supported by the tens of thousands who votes for Poilievre.
Even before the pandemic there have been Conservatives who have been opposed in the extreme to Justin Trudeau. They have been shocked and angry they have not won the last few elections to the point that some of them, especially in Alberta, have talked about separation. Despite many conservative governments in Canada, many conservative chafe under any rules. We have seen conservative on conservative clashes about breaking the law in the UCP conservative leadership campaign.
Now that Pierre Poilievre is the leader, he has to tread more lightly. If he truly intends to fire the Bank of Canada governor, he can expect that it might affect the markets. Any inkling of instability sends the markets on the move. If he is PM he has every right to his own governor. But a showy removal of the governor and a replacement that seems to have no independence will be harmful and Poilievre likely knows this. It remains to be seen if his party does.
Poilievre has also said he wishes to defund the CBC. Even Stephen Harper did not end the CBC. Even the United States has public and state broadcasters such as PBS, NPR and Voice of America. The President of the United States appoints representatives to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Will he support a PBS model with charitable tax credit or will he cut all all support for public broadcasting? Will he eliminate all tax supports for magazines, newspapers and television? Certainly in his party there are those who want it all gone. And if he doesn't deliver, will they turf him? Or abandon him? One Quebec MP has already resigned to sit as an independent. This was no ordinary party MP, he was Scheer's lieutenant in Quebec. He supported Charest and made it clear he was not comfortable with the new leadership. Poilievre blasted him as a Trudeau enabler and enlisted a social media campaign to get him to resign immediately. There were apologies about that and probably shock at the level of harassment. The damage done has other Conservatives in Quebec upset.
The next days will be about appearing statesman-like with the Queen's passing. These moments are important because if it appears too political with attempts to kneecap your opponent at every turns, it doesn't look very much like a prime minister. Many Canadians are not nearly as political and vote according to what they see. It is why Harper's bid to be re-elected failed as the campaign had taken a meanspirited turn when Canadians were clearly not comfortable where it was going.
I had no special insight into that last Harper election. I thought he was going to win massively in 2015 because I thought his messaging on past leaders of the Liberals was so effective that they were beaten even before the election started. Where Harper went wrong is when he just didn't focus on the opposition parties but on citizens he felt were a threat to Canada. His snitch line and embracing extremist tactics in Ontario was rejected in favour of a more positive Liberal campaign. In recent years, Harper's embrace of anti-Democratic conservative movements in places like Hungary shows where things might have gone.
There won't be an election any time soon unless the NDP decide to take advantage of a change in their relationship with the Liberals to support the minority till the next mandated election. The Conservatives will have time to refine their opposition, firm up their finances and come up with an election platform. The Liberals could tip the apple cart by calling a snap election if their poll numbers indicate a majority. However, evidence from last election suggests Canadians might just return the same minority government again. Possibly a different minority.
One of the reasons Harper won aside from a long reign from the Liberals, corruption, hard times and a rise of the NDP was the fact that he presented a plan that attracted supporters. Governments usually collapse rather than the incoming government given ringing endorsement to rule. However, Harper had a simple package of policies that were understood and he could introduce as bills. Getting nominated leader doesn't necessarily mean an election platform has to be presented when the election is a few years away but his policy so far of firing the Bank of Canada Governor and promoting crypto currency is a winning formula.
Poilievre has won the base, the next thing is to do the math and calculate what seats in Parliament might flip to the Tories. His relationship with the Freedom Convoy might be more of an anchor for him beyond his core supporters. They may have donated big to him but many of them are not likely to be in any mood for the give and take that real politics requires. Many of them have conspiracy theory-based thinking and believe that a vote for their party equals dismantling Canada. This seems to be the rationale for some of the supporters in the leadership battle in Alberta who are also federal Tory supporters.
None of that happens even if Conservatives get a majority. Other levels of government, the courts, the markets and international pressures limit you as they are the guard rails in the system. One consequence of changes in national government is that provincial governments often change to counter it. Canadians are funny that way. Provincial governments get a lot of mileage running against the Feds and blaming them for woes in their provinces. Having the same party provincially and federally is not always fruitful for that type of bun fight.
The Liberals and Conservatives used to be brokerage parties that cast wide tents. In recent years more center/right Liberals have been squeezed out for more left policies. Some in part to prevent gains from NDP but just as much because of Liberal choice. Likewise, Conservatives used to be called Progressive Conservatives and had a center/right tent with many Red Tories who took more socially liberal view on a range of subjects. Today's Conservatives have squeezed out the progressives in both name and idea in the new party.
The cold calculation of the Liberals and the Conservatives is that you can win a majority with 30% of the vote if you target certain ridings across the country. Is it no wonder that 70% of the population often feels that elections don't reflect their vote. Attempts have been to change the system of voting but at a provincial level, it has always been voted down or rejected. And provincial wings and federal wings often disagree on something like proportional representation.
Poilievre has succeeded in getting younger and diverse members in the party. His digital communication strategy and messaging has helped and the Conservatives will have a lot of new members which is good for them moving forward. If Canada falls into recession, it can give the Tories an opening to see a rise in support. As it stands now, Trudeau is able to look statesman-like at the Queen's funeral and even non-partisan with other former PMs including Poilievre's former boss Stephen Harper posing for pictures in London.
One assumes that when spring arrives Trudeau once again will be in London for the Coronation which will be another state event that naturally elevates you in the public eye. Most times that is. In India, it went bad which goes to show you that less is more in overseas trips. And if you do have to speak out as in the funeral of a Queen, speak about that person with grace and humility.
It remains to be seen if Trudeau runs again. It is possible an international job awaits him although Canada has earned a lot of enemies in Russia and China recently so U.N. jobs might be out of the question. Or not. If Trudeau serves as an MP till 2025, he will have served as MP as long as his father who retired at 65. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Trudeau might want to do something different. Even Joe Biden in recent days has not committed yet to running for a second term. In his case, he might judge it based if he feels another six years on the job and whether he is up for it.
Poilievre for all his talk about elites is a political lifer. He has 18 years in Parliament and if Trudeau serves a full term, it will be over 20 years. If he becomes PM, it will be 25 (given a majority). That is called a career politician. If indeed he wins, it will be the pinnacle of a long career. Alas, if Trudeau does run and wins a majority, those long years may not serve the Conservative leader very well.
Trudeau has proved himself a nemesis to the Conservative party. Poilievre has some time to build the party. The question is will he rely on elements of the party that make people question their ability to govern? They can't assume that people will hate Trudeau enough to remove him. And winning every seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan by huge majorities doesn't earn you enough seats. It will come down to personal appeal and finding candidates who can win seats they don't presently hold. And that usually is in Ontario.
As mentioned, I'm not good at predicting. I once thought Alberta would have a PC government for as long as I lived. I was wrong. I thought the 1980s Liberals in Ontario would win another term. I was wrong. I thought Stephen Harper would win another majority.. I was wrong. Truth is that a lot of people are not wedded to any particular party and you have to win their votes. Or, at least not have them so mad at you, they want to toss you out.
It will be interesting to see. What is more interesting is that world issues of climate, war, migration and authoritarianism are are all buffeting countries. Those things can cause both a politician's fortunes to rise or fall. Which will it be? Who is to say?
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