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Crime Crisis in Winnipeg

It is becoming impossible to ignore. Even the biggest Winnipeg booster and people quick to say things are not so bad are being confronted with crime escalating to the point of driving some businesses to desperate measures and citizens expecting to be victims of property crime or worse. Businesses along McPhllips are being struck over and over. Plywood is all over every neighbourhood door and window as the chances of catching someone break it, enter and steal things is near zero. If you get broken into while you are at home chances are police can't come because they are in a shootout, stabbing or at bear spray somewhere else in the city.

The police downtown are afraid to walk to their cars. If you had asked them where they wanted their new headquarters, they probably would have said Saskatoon. Two mayoral candidates are saying the chief should be fired. The union isn't happy. Many of the candidates in the race have been victims of crime since the beginning of the race. Not sure anyone can recall this happening in other civic races.

In the last day, women were being attacked on buses. And not just downtown. A U.S. study on traffic in 62 downtowns across North America found that Winnipeg was in the middle of the pack in terms of people back as of July. No city has fully returned to pre-pandemic activity in their central areas. Some have had better results such as New York because of the surge of tourism but many workers still have not returned to offices yet.

It is certain that if the same metrics were used in September as they were in July that numbers would be higher. The return of Red River College and University of Winnipeg students downtown has brought life to those areas. Many downtown offices returned to work fully or in hybrid form. Also of note is that many apartments that were under construction the entire length of the pandemic are coming on stream now including the tallest building in the city.

The Downtown Watch has given way to the Downtown Community Safety Partnership that has three teams out and does safety walks. While it is supposed to improve safety, there is simply not enough people to stop the property crime and violence. The DCSP is more about assisting vulnerable people through the 211 phone system. The awkwardly named agency could use a re-branding. The old Watch was recognizable uniform colour and their name. They also seemed to have more authority to deescalate. It seems the name Watch was too militant and the colour red too much like the RCMP. Sadly, the colouring now looks like Freedom Convoy marchers.

There is nothing inherently wrong with yellow/orange vests. The Bear Clan and others wear it well. But they are a truly a community patrol whereas Downtown Watch at one time were sworn peace officers. We do have Winnipeg Police Cadets who do take on downtown walks but the Police Service use them a whole lot of times for directing traffic. A move has been made but to put up CCTV video security downtown but since the initial announcement, nothing has been heard. Questions of who monitors it, where are they placed and who responds are still not known. Also, privacy and how long video is stored for is also unknown.

The Free Press has featured their vacant house team of police, fire, inspector and contractors going from vacant house to house. Good journalism. Good stats. During my walks I pointed out some really good neighbourhood work being hurt by vacant houses/buildings being boarded up and broken into and set afire. I was very concerned that fate awaited Downtown Bay. Unlike the Bay which now has some money and momentum behind it, some of the vacant houses are deteriorating so fast and burning so much, they don't have a chance to be sold and rehabilitated. Some of those houses are in places like Wellington Crescent which has gotten demolition after the third break in.. While the city officials are working better together, city council and the province are slow. If an apartment has been vacant years, seize it. If it burns, knock it down. And charge the landlord who might just want to collect insurance on it. And where possible, rehabilitate. Several hundred homes being broken into because they have been vacant and occupied or being used for crime activities is gutting neighbourhoods. Not all houses seem to get as fast a solution as Wellington Crescent has gotten. Not fast enough for the vacant two story on College that was set on fire the other night.

A debate among mayor candidates turned into angry accusations, among them on who is to blame for violence, specifically domestic violence. A candidate should be looking to propose solutions rather than blaming. Unless his solution is for police to profile certain races, genders, socio-economic groups with perpetual scrutiny. Either way, whatever point the candidate was making has drawn attention and probably not in a way to get things done in city hall. Or get elected.

The most recent Probe poll has Glen Murray so far ahead that it seems insurmountable except when it is compared to undecided. There are likely too many conservative candidates running. Too many progressives and too many liberals. Our electoral system could stand either or run off elections of one that Alaska just used which was the ranked ballot system. Any changes though have to go through the province. And the province seems unwilling to change anything about the Winnipeg Act.

We have seen a few promises dependent on changes to the Winnipeg Act. It seems unlikely the present government is keen to change them. And the next possible government hasn't raised it either. The thing is the city had double the amount of MLAs than City Councillors. The MLAs should care as the provincial election is coming and it will depend on those city ridings. Too many MLAs from all parties need to be asked questions specific to how well the city responds to issues and what their solutions are.

Police have made some impressive arrests lately. One suspect is charged with 69 break-ins, a shoplifting ring has been arrested at Polo Park and a spree of car jacking suspects taken in. But we are overwhelmed and addictions and crime and grinding us down. Perhaps if some of the worst offenders are taken off the streets as we saw in 2014, the long rising crime rates will come down.

Pierre Polievere New Conservative Leader

This past weekend Pierre Poilievre was elected to leader following Erin O'Toole stepping down from the last disappointing result that brought another minority government of Justin Trudeau. In a member held vote, it was the biggest vote account and a massive majority over the next leading contender of Jean Charest.

If it wasn't clear before, it should be clear now...the present Conservative party does not have room for progressives or moderates. It isn't a libertarian party either because there are too many in the party who wish to impose laws on social conservative areas such as abortion. Charest might retain his membership but no one was interested in his moderation. They want a fight and they want it now. And that was supported by the tens of thousands who votes for Poilievre.

Even before the pandemic there have been Conservatives who have been opposed in the extreme to Justin Trudeau. They have been shocked and angry they have not won the last few elections to the point that some of them, especially in Alberta, have talked about separation. Despite many conservative governments in Canada, many conservative chafe under any rules. We have seen conservative on conservative clashes about breaking the law in the UCP conservative leadership campaign.

Now that Pierre Poilievre is the leader, he has to tread more lightly.  If he truly intends to fire the Bank of Canada governor, he can expect that it might affect the markets. Any inkling of instability sends the markets on the move. If he is PM he has every right to his own governor. But a showy removal of the governor and a replacement that seems to have no independence will be harmful and Poilievre likely knows this. It remains to be seen if his party does.

Poilievre has also said he wishes to defund the CBC. Even Stephen Harper did not end the CBC. Even the United States has public and state broadcasters such as PBS, NPR and Voice of America. The President of the United States appoints representatives to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Will he support a PBS model with charitable tax credit or will he cut all all support for public broadcasting? Will he eliminate all tax supports for magazines, newspapers and television? Certainly in his party there are those who want it all gone. And if he doesn't deliver, will they turf him? Or abandon him? One Quebec MP has already resigned to sit as an independent. This was no ordinary party MP, he was Scheer's lieutenant in Quebec. He supported Charest and made it clear he was not comfortable with the new leadership. Poilievre blasted him as a Trudeau enabler and enlisted a social media campaign to get him to resign immediately. There were apologies about that and probably shock at the level of harassment. The damage done has other Conservatives in Quebec upset.

The next days will be about appearing statesman-like with the Queen's passing. These moments are important because if it appears too political with attempts to kneecap your opponent at every turns, it doesn't look very much like a prime minister. Many Canadians are not nearly as political and vote according to what they see. It is why Harper's bid to be re-elected failed as the campaign had taken a meanspirited turn when Canadians were clearly not comfortable where it was going.

I had no special insight into that last Harper election. I thought he was going to win massively in 2015 because I thought his messaging on past leaders of the Liberals was so effective that they were beaten even before the election started. Where Harper went wrong is when he just didn't focus on the opposition parties but on citizens he felt were a threat to Canada. His snitch line and embracing extremist tactics in Ontario was rejected in favour of a more positive Liberal campaign. In recent years, Harper's embrace of anti-Democratic conservative movements in places like Hungary shows where things might have gone.

There won't be an election any time soon unless the NDP decide to take advantage of a change in their relationship with the Liberals to support the minority till the next mandated election. The Conservatives will have time to refine their opposition, firm up their finances and come up with an election platform. The Liberals could tip the apple cart by calling a snap election if their poll numbers indicate a majority. However, evidence from last election suggests Canadians might just return the same minority government again. Possibly a different minority.

One of the reasons Harper won aside from a long reign from the Liberals, corruption, hard times and a rise of the NDP was the fact that he presented a plan that attracted supporters. Governments usually collapse rather than the incoming government given ringing endorsement to rule. However, Harper had a simple package of policies that were understood and he could introduce as bills. Getting nominated leader doesn't necessarily mean an election platform has to be presented when the election is a few years away but his policy so far of firing the Bank of Canada Governor and promoting crypto currency is a winning formula.

Poilievre has won the base, the next thing is to do the math and calculate what seats in Parliament might flip to the Tories. His relationship with the Freedom Convoy might be more of an anchor for him beyond his core supporters. They may have donated big to him but many of them are not likely to be in any mood for the give and take that real politics requires. Many of them have conspiracy theory-based thinking and believe that a vote for their party equals dismantling Canada. This seems to be the rationale for some of the supporters in the leadership battle in Alberta who are also federal Tory supporters.

None of that happens even if Conservatives get a majority. Other levels of government, the courts, the markets and international pressures limit you as they are the guard rails in the system. One consequence of changes in national government is that provincial governments often change to counter it. Canadians are funny that way. Provincial governments get a lot of mileage running against the Feds and blaming them for woes in their provinces. Having the same party provincially and federally is not always fruitful for that type of bun fight.

The Liberals and Conservatives used to be brokerage parties that cast wide tents. In recent years more center/right Liberals have been squeezed out for more left policies. Some in part to prevent gains from NDP but just as much because of Liberal choice. Likewise, Conservatives used to be called Progressive Conservatives and had a center/right tent with many Red Tories who took more socially liberal view on a range of subjects. Today's Conservatives have squeezed out the progressives in both name and idea in the new party.

The cold calculation of the Liberals and the Conservatives is that you can win a majority with 30% of the vote if you target certain ridings across the country. Is it no wonder that 70% of the population often feels that elections don't reflect their vote. Attempts have been to change the system of voting but at a provincial level, it has always been voted down or rejected. And provincial wings and federal wings often disagree on something like proportional representation. 

Poilievre has succeeded in getting younger and diverse members in the party. His digital communication strategy and messaging has helped and the Conservatives will have a lot of new members which is good for them moving forward. If Canada falls into recession, it can give the Tories an opening to see a rise in support. As it stands now, Trudeau is able to look statesman-like at the Queen's funeral and even non-partisan with other former PMs including Poilievre's former boss Stephen Harper posing for pictures in London. 

One assumes that when spring arrives Trudeau once again will be in London for the Coronation which will be another state event that naturally elevates you in the public eye. Most times that is. In India, it went bad which goes to show you that less is more in overseas trips. And if you do have to speak out as in the funeral of a Queen, speak about that person with grace and humility. 

It remains to be seen if Trudeau runs again. It is possible an international job awaits him although Canada has earned a lot of enemies in Russia and China recently so U.N. jobs might be out of the question. Or not. If Trudeau serves as an MP till 2025, he will have served as MP as long as his father who retired at 65. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Trudeau might want to do something different. Even Joe Biden in recent days has not committed yet to running for a second term. In his case, he might judge it based if he feels another six years on the job and whether he is up for it.

Poilievre for all his talk about elites is a political lifer. He has 18 years in Parliament and if Trudeau serves a full term, it will be over 20 years. If he becomes PM, it will be 25 (given a majority). That is called a career politician. If indeed he wins, it will be the pinnacle of a long career. Alas, if Trudeau does run and wins a majority, those long years may not serve the Conservative leader very well.

Trudeau has proved himself a nemesis to the Conservative party. Poilievre has some time to build the party. The question is will he rely on elements of the party that make people question their ability to govern? They can't assume that people will hate Trudeau enough to remove him. And winning every seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan by huge majorities doesn't earn you enough seats. It will come down to personal appeal and finding candidates who can win seats they don't presently hold. And that usually is in Ontario.

As mentioned, I'm not good at predicting. I once thought Alberta would have a PC government for as long as I lived. I was wrong. I thought the 1980s Liberals in Ontario would win another term. I was wrong. I thought Stephen Harper would win another majority.. I was wrong. Truth is that a lot of people are not wedded to any particular party and you have to win their votes. Or, at least not have them so mad at you, they want to toss you out.

It will be interesting to see. What is more interesting is that world issues of climate, war, migration and authoritarianism are are all buffeting countries. Those things can cause both a politician's fortunes to rise or fall. Which will it be? Who is to say?

Burger King and Khab Tapioca Coming to Polo Park Area

Burger King has slowly been expanding their footprint around the city. Considering how important the Polo Park area has been for decades, it is surprising that the restaurant has not tried for a location close by. A&W has had their drive-thru for decades the street and McDonald's has been on one side of St. James street across from Polo Park and then on the same side. Both times just not of the mall.

The old McDonald's was a two floor monster with a play area downstairs. It featured one of the first drive-thrus for the restaurant in 1976. It became a favoured place for families over Grant Park. It would take a remarkable expansion for Burger King at 10 restaurants in Winnipeg to come close to McDonald's 30. For some fast food places like Arby's, they have closed all their stores altogether and left the market here.

Above, the sire of the old McDonald's on St. James in 1988, a year after Polo Park expansion.

The new Burger King will be immediately beside Chapters bookstore and will also feature a drive-thru. Next door will also have a restaurant called Khab Tapioca. It is one of many in the proliferation of sweet drink shops that have opened all over the city.

The area around Polo Park has been very slow to develop since both the arena and the stadium moved out. As fall progresses, we might start seeing some of the vacancies and open land start to fill up but it is hard to say where the economy is. Even when things were firing on all cylinders in 2019, the area around Polo Park suffered while Seasons of Tuxedo was exploding.

The big question of restaurants opening up beside Chapters is when will the bookstore have a return of coffee shops to their stores? Nothing happening in them yet. So a couple of restaurants opening by Chapters gives book buyers a place to go now.

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Teaser Trailer (2022)

Manhunt Over

Another mass killing in Canada and a whole lot of grief in Saskatchewan. The result was a manhunt where the names of the suspects were released early and an alert given by the RCMP with critical data instead of a sleepy Tweet. The alert spread to neighbouring provinces as they depth of the dead and injured became known and EMS helicopters flew to major trauma centres and RCMP tactical squads headed north.

RCMP disclosures were faster and this was probably in response to the mass shooting in Nova Scotia which was confusing and dangerous and led to far more deaths. The inquiry that is ongoing there is horrifying to follow. If the warnings the RCMP gave in Saskatchewan helped avoid more killings then this is a good thing. 

A death in custody is not a great thing especially when you see police handcuffing the suspect. An autopsy will reveal if an overdose took place but so many questions left unanswered and we are not likely to hear from independent investigators with any immediacy. Police still need a chronology which is within their purview, especially if there are those who criminally gave aid and comfort to the killers before, during or after what happened. 

Only an inquiry will probably be able to assess what led to the killings, the parole violations, the nature of the targeted attacks, the reasons the brothers worked together or in the end, turned on one another and the police response as the manhunt began.

For the moment now, let us just give the broadest sympathy and support to the families of those lost and hurt in this attack. The victims of these crimes need to know they won't be forgotten.

The Queen is Dead, Long Live the King

The Queen of Canada Elizabeth died peacefully today at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at age 96. Serving 70 years as monarch, she worked right till the end seeing off Boris Johnson and receiving her 15th prime minister since Winston Churchill in 1952. He son Charles become King and will be coronated after mourning. It is expected that Canada's prime minister and a delegation will be in attendance for the state funeral. There is likely to be something similar in Canada.

During her reign, she saw 13 Canadian prime ministers. In the UK, it reached 15 with Liz Truss just a few days ago. At 70 years and a Platinum Jubilee, she eclipsed Queen Victoria by 7 years. And unlike Victoria, Elizabeth actually served in the military during World War II.

Her husband Prince Philip died last year just shy of 100 years of age and after 74 years of marriage and four children, grand children and great grand children.

She saw 13 U.S. Presidents and the end of the British empire and the rise of the Commonwealth. She was head of state for 15 countries including Canada.

Today, the flags fly at half-mast across Canada. God Save the King.

Red River Co-Op Buys Husky Gas Stations in Winnipeg

The Husky Gas brand will disappear from Winnipeg and beyond as the retailer has been purchased by Federated Co-Ops and re-sold to its Co-Op partners such as Red River Co-op. Most of the Husky locations are in Alberta and B.C. but nine are in Manitoba, Kenora and Dryden.

The re-branding will take place in the new year and Red River Co-Op will grow to 49 gas locations and nine grocery stores and two stand alone pharmacies. 

This is quite the comeback for Red River Co-Op that almost tipped towards failure in 1983 when they closed their grocery operation that had operated from 1957. They were heavily indebted and were down to three gas stations. The Co-Op name was limping in Manitoba and the economy was trashed in the 1980s. It has been a slow and steady re-build.

The grocery unit returned in 2014 when Red River Co-Op bought parts of Sobey-Safeway stores that were sold as a requirement by the federal government for competition rules.

Husky has been an iconic image for many years in gas retailing but they have rarely been a price leader. Red River Co-Op itself is not likely to be the station to push competitive prices at the pump. But returning profits to members does matter and will continue to matter to people who buy gas and groceries from Red River.

Expect to see more of the gas stations begin to offer service for electric vehicles such as fast charging stations. For example, someone might park and charge at a Co-Op station for 20 minutes while using convenience store and other services nearby. This is not as far fetched as it sounds. Some of the lots Co-Op occupies could accommodate many vehicles where people could charge up and use the bank, washrooms, convenience store, coffee shop and have enough power to run their car the rest of the day.

The one thing that is clear from this transaction is that more money stays in Manitoba and in the hands of ordinary people.

The Passing of Gorbachev and What He Meant to Canada

The photo above on the farm of long time Liberal Agriculture Minister Eugene Whelan in 1983 with Alexander Yakovlev and Mikhail Gorbachev chatting about the future. Little did the world know that glasnost had just begun in rural Ontario, Canada.

Russians are usually very hostile to Gorbachev's seven years as the last Soviet leader. The west has felt differently and still does as we learned this week that the former General Secretary of the Communist Party died at age 91. 

The early years for Gorbachev when he was in Politburo and when he took up the leadership of the Soviet Union started out well enough. Most were happy to see a leader who did not look like they were going to die six months into the job. There was also the ongoing Cold War and the fight in Afghanistan and a declining standard of living due to repressive central planning.

The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 upped the ante on the cold war. The United States was still stinging from Vietnam, Watergate and a deep recession with a few oil shocks thrown in for good measure. The Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 pretty much sealed it that the USSR would be regarded as the biggest strategic threat to the west. It was about this time the west saw a more nationalistic rise in politics as well as media.

Conservative governments were being elected everywhere in the west including in Canada. And movies began to reflect a Soviet fear with The Day After, Red Dawn and Amerika along with nationalistic sequels of Rambo and Rocky. Even shows like Family Ties had a conservative role with Michael J. Fox. Pride in country was high but it also came with a muscular posture, especially the U.S. However, even in Canada we were buying CF-18s (a job that ultimately tarnished PCs in Canada).

Canada also boycotted the Olympics in Moscow in 1980. Although many say the Olympics should not be politicized it seems that rewarding belligerence with complicit support only encourages it. Not to be outdone, The Soviet and East Bloc countries boycotted the Olympics in 1984. While the debate about boycotts will always prevail, it should be important to note that sport is not devoid of politics. Funding that is directed at men, cover-ups of drugs, sexual assaults and cheating and all other manner of bad issues are not solved with an attitude of carrying on. It sometimes has taken athletes saying they won't participate till things are fixed.

Suffice to say that the 1980s Cold War was heating up and Canada was right in the middle of it. Still, there were a few cracks from to which to work on a relationship where Canada could carve out a a third way. Most prominent was sport. Canada played the Soviets in 1972 and in various Canada Cups in 1976, 1981, 1984, 1987 and 1991. It is 50 years this year since these hockey series began. While they were a proxy war for the Cold War, real people played and real relationships were created and they changed attitudes that saw Soviet players come to the NHL and North American players go to Russian leagues.

The one area that continued through the cold war was trade. Canadian grains made it overseas and Soviet products made it into Canada. Even at the worst times trade still managed to happened as American and Soviet interests clashed in regional wars, espionage and generally hostile views on the political economy and willingness to interfere with each other's countries. For Canada, it was to take a side during the Russian Civil War in 1918, for the Soviets it was to encourage labour riots in Canada.

By the time Pierre Trudeau got into power, Canada was trying to reach out to deescalate increasingly dangerous provocations. The Afghan invasion by the Soviets made it difficult to make headway in more productive relationships. The elevation of Mikhail Gorbachev to Agriculture Secretary presented Canada with an opportunity when three years of poor crops from 1979 to 1981 led to increased grain sales to the Soviets. In May of 1983, it was beginning to look clear that Gorbachev was a leader to watch in the Politburo and he came to Canada for an extensive 10 day trip and was to address Parliament.

The length of time of the trip was unheard of then and it is unheard of today. Imagine it now. A superpower sends a senior member of government on a free ranging research mission. Canada set the path by having Eugene Whalen head over to Russia in 1981 and meet with Gorbachev for 90 minutes and make a formal invitation. Canada had credibility with the Soviets because it had opened the door to trade with China before Nixon did. And Canada had been increasing grain sales during three awful years of weather for the Soviets.

The man to spearhead Canada's agriculture push was Eugene Whalen. He was a long time Agriculture minister for 12 years with Pierre Trudeau. A giant of a man with a green Stetson. Never quite politically correct but always a populist and always on top of his portfolio. 

It is fair to say that Gorbachev came with a mission. He met all three political leaders of the main parties, saw Parliament with a translation in Russian and toured extensively through farms in Ontario and Alberta. The longtime Russian Ambassador Alexander Yakovlev was able to set some misconceptions aside. Gorbachev first thought a grocery store might have been set up with huge amounts of produce there just for his visit. The Ambassador was able to say that any grocery store they would randomly go to would be the same. And he did see that.

During the visit to Whalen's farm, Gorbachev and Yakovlev had some some time just to think and talk as they waited for the minister to return from Ottawa. Whalen's wife told them they could walk around the farm outside and they did. It is the top picture. It is here that glasnost took root according to some. Both men could see Canada had land that was familiar to them, people that felt familiar to them but systems that produced different results.

It wasn't that Canada was perfect. Far from it. The early 1980s was a time of a pretty deep recession and unemployment. Winnipeg had been hammered in 1980 with massive business closures and population leaving for Alberta and B.C. where prospects were better. Much of the manufacturing sector was looking like the rust belt. Interest rates were high and this was coming off years of stagflation. And yet to a Soviet seeing full produce areas and new cars and tractors, it must have been eye opening.

There was real annoyance by allies about Canada reaching out to the Soviets in the 1980s but everything that came after was a result of this contact. Thatcher, Reagan and treaties and opening of the Berlin Wall all originated with a little bit thinking on a Canadian farm field.

I think Canada continued to have a different approach when it came to foreign policy even after Trudeau left. Mulroney continued a measured approach to Gorbachev and the policy on South Africa was tough but open. And often it was ahead of our allies. I'm not sure we can can say that now. We continue to bring in refugees but the pace is so slow. Our military support so timid. And our innovativeness lost.

While Russians might feel Gorbachev let them down, the opportunity lay right at Russia's door to be the most powerful member of the EU, a member of NATO and for the people to be as prosperous as any in Europe. Dreams of an old empire and mistaking corrupt Russian billionaires for state success is not success. Russian businessmen falling out of windows is what it has come down to. And thousands of Russians soldiers dead and a crime to report that it has happened.

What Gorbachev meant to Canada was a chance to see peace and prosperity. And not just for Canada but for Russia too. It still might happen but it is hard to imagine what Putin is thinking trying to re-take all the territory of the Soviet era. To what end? Perhaps a leader emerges sometime in the future that helps Russia achieve greatness that many believe was entirely possible decades ago.