Winnipeg Comeback 2022 Part 1

Above is Market Avenue, home of the Royal Manitoba Theatre Centre. 

In 2019 it seemed that Winnipeg and much of the province was on the cusp of a sustained economic growth period. Sure, weather was and always a possible factor but the diversified provincial economy seemed solid and several businesses were in expansion mode. Approvals for several buildings were made and construction was starting. And all this built on top of a stable economy already. Manitoba looked poised to enter its 150th birthday with a confidence not seen in some time.

It was not to be. By March of 2020, all of North America was shutdown with Covid 19. The brief celebratory time at the beginning of the year quickly turned to a sense of dread with the type of worldwide shutdown the likes the world have rarely seen. At the height of it, we saw our dystopic future of empty streets, office buildings and schools.

Above is Winnipeg City Hall. The city's 150th birthday comes soon.

Many families lost people as a result of Covid or because of what it has done to our health system. My family suffered horribly. My dad never recovered from Covid and we lost him in July. My mom hasn't walked since her release. And now she is in lockdown again. It is down to primary caregiver now. 

It wasn't a secret my parents had Covid. For too many the disease was something you only whispered at a family dinner like "cancer" as if that alone would make it go away. It was too easy for people to dismiss it by saying they had never heard of anyone getting it. It is awful in January of 2022 and it is spreading at a rate that is hitting everywhere.

Above is the empty space where city parkade and Public Safety Building once stood. Red River College downtown campus in background. The space could transform the area and further enhance Princess as well as King as a dynamic area of the Exchange and Chinatown.

But this isn't looking at how bad the last 18 months have been or how 2022 feels like a continuation of what has passed. This is about the comeback for Winnipeg and Manitoba in 2022. While there is no doubt that that many small businesses have taken it repeatedly on the chin, some developments and business start-ups continued through the pandemic. The tallest tower in the city has been under construction through the entire time and should be open to new residents soon.

Likewise, towers on on Assiniboine were finally completed for lease or purchase. The Medical Arts converted to residential, the former United Grain Growers on Main converted and industrial conversions to residential on Waterfront are in progress. It is easy to lose track of the projects whether they be on Princess, on Broadway or near the art gallery. And those are the ones just downtown. 

The above is Chinese Cultural Centre which now overlooks a piece of prime property where the parkade and Public Safety Building Stand.

Driving down Sterling Lyon by Seasons has been non-stop multi-unit construction on industrial land. Seasons of Tuxedo and surrounding area have seen a huge spike in commercial and residential building. Hotel construction took place even as the pandemic continued. And Kapyong is now cleared of all buildings and awaiting the next step. One thing it won't be is a big mall. There is no market for another. It will have some retail but will feature more residential, recreational and cultural buildings. It will likely have a hotel as well. 

For the entire pandemic there were either brand new or re-furbished grocery stores built. Two new Red River Co-Ops on Sterling Lyon and Pembina Highway. New Save on Foods on Pembina. Every Safeway re-done. And No Frills and Freshco conversions from other grocery stores. Tens of millions spent in short order. The above pictures show Red River Co-Op shortly before they opened. Visible are the new apartments and condos coming as well.

Shopping malls were also getting additions from Kildonan to Polo Park or refreshes like Garden City and Grant Park. Tens of million spent again even as some of these buildings were at reduced capacity or even closed at some point. The reason: A bet on the future.

The pictures below are the recently completely Save on Foods and the still under construction movie theatres for Famous Players at Kildonan Place. Each hit over the last years has via department store closures has been responded to by a multi-million investment by its owners.

Princess Avenue has been particularly busy throughout the pandemic with building activity. The above pictures are old and new residential construction. Many of the new conversions are leaving room for commercial activity. In this case, the first floor window show another location for Harrisons Coffee. Given the amount of multi-unit housing in the area plus Red River Polytech, this could be a busier street than it has been in years. And in the 1970s and 80s, there were a number of businesses that operated in the area. Industrial, retail and restaurant. The thing that was spotty was residential. That has all changed now.

How it all connects is not known yet. The new campus building for Red River along with residential/retail still doesn't have a fully returned to work and school crowd back. And no one knows what the return to arts and festivals will be like. Has their been any permanent change to pattern of behaviour previous to 2020? If we are lucky, no. And by that I mean, will people return downtown for work and entertainment?

The new Innovation Campus Manitou a bi Bii dazigae has just been built off Princess and really hasn't had a chance to shine after in person learning was halted again. It may really only be in September of 2022 where we see attendance near normal in schools. And from there, we could see activity along Princess quite different from 2019.

As a car dominated city, it can be intimidating just getting out of the car to go get groceries. It is for this reason that some new developments are literally built beside a grocery and a pharmacy. In the case of the new luxury Taylor Residences, it built between a Sobeys and a Walmart. It is probably easier to walk than to find a parking space a hundred meters. away.

In front of the Walmart on Taylor itself more multi-unit residences are going up. It is hard to imagine someone needing their cars to drive the distance you would often park away from the store entrance on a busy day. Alas, some older neighbourhoods used to have grocery and pharmacy options that were walkable but those have since closed. Some suburban places never had them at all and it is a few kilometers hike.

River Heights has a few specialty grocers and convenience store but a senior would be hard pressed to be able live without transport compared to say...Osborne. It wasn't always that way. Up till the 1990s, there were three or four grocers along Academy Road. Now, one specialty shop. My parents, like a lot of seniors, had few options to move to a multi-unit place for senior assisted living in the area. Once you can't live in your house or need to downsize, you have to move out of the neighbourhood. This has to change.

According to census data, Winnipeg's population growth slowed even before during the pandemic. Immigration from outside Canada kept it from going into free fall. There was sturdy growth 2016/17 of 2%. It triggered a building boom of office, apartments and housing and the feeling was that 2020, Manitoba's 150, it would culminate in a period of growth and prosperity. The pandemic of Covid 19 changed that for Winnipeg. 

In fairness Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver have also seen population declines during this time but the fact that Winnipeg's started earlier is concerning. Brian Pallister became premier in 2016 and while Winnipeg was experiencing robust growth that year, the relationship between mayor and premier was frosty over the direction of the city. Much of the time communication channels were simply closed as the Progressive Conservative pursued health, education and other reforms while cutting service and as well as taxes.

A look down Fort Street as a crane dismantles another crane as Winnipeg's tallest building reaches completion.

The cuts to universities and healthcare have led to faculty and doctors leaving Manitoba. The cancellation of the CancerCare addition, multiple programs in health and wage freezes in post secondary education made it easy for professionals to shop their skills somewhere else. And they did. The pursuit of ending the deficit made health care particularly vulnerable to the pandemic. The ER and Urgent Care closures came just as the need for them could not be greater.

The Conservatives did see some big investments ushered in on agriculture and a few other areas but the austerity measures and tax cuts hurt both Winnipeg and the province because it is people that will help bring back a measure of prosperity. And if they leave they are not investing, not paying taxes and not helping the economy here.

A change in leadership has come with a flurry of announcements of policy shifts and investments in healthcare provincially. But these will take time and the pandemic is still hurting meaningful change till then. With an election in two years, the PCs have never been more unpopular. But will the NDP be ready to run the shop? There was a reason they were defeated in 2016. They purged five cabinet ministers who were seeking to change the directions of the party on policy. And when that didn't happen, the electorate purged the party.

We don't have the same advantages of other provinces with oil like Alberta and Saskatchewan. Now do we have the port and resources as well as climate of B.C. Ontario and Quebec have the industrial base. Manitoba has only one sizeable city compared to other provinces who usually have two or more fair sized cities. Even with all that, we punch above our weight with head offices and family businesses and diversified economy.