The Future of Canada

No matter who wins the upcoming federal election, there are things that should be considered to help us navigate the future of the country. Safe to say, we have hitched our wagon to the U.S. and it has made us very vulnerable. Trump has been very chaotic and the new prime minister will have to deal with that. The closest option for Canada was the easy one and our trade and tourism has been focused so much on the U.S. that we haven't even completed twinning highway projects to connect easy and west routes in Canada.

To be fair, twinning of Trans-Canada to Ontario is going through the planning stages now and we'll need those east-west corridors even more. However, it shows what our priorities have been. It has been those north/south road, rail routes, pipelines and airport connections all focused on the States. There have been a few projects to enhance other economic routes such as Trans-Mountain Pipeline, the railway to Churchill, Trans-Canada Highway improvements and LNG projects. 

Alberta has been focused on pipeline projects headed south but that always results in discounted oil prices. Neither Trump or Biden got pipeline projects approved. Harper didn't either. Trudeau actually got an expensive one built but probably got no benefit from it in Alberta. For that province though, it is the best paying oil pipeline the industry has. Funny, how that goes. The Trans-Mountain Pipeline has been selling higher priced oil than anything shipped through southern pipelines. Given the costs of the line, even if western pipelines were approved, it is possible companies would be hesitant due to the enormous costs. Most are shying away even though most think tanks keep saying give the private companies the freedom. Most won't commit even if all restrictions are gone. The costs of infrastructure, labour and supplies are high.

Manitoba has decided not to re-new a hydro energy deal with U.S. company Northern States Power. Part of this is to ensure the province has capacity but also for exports to western provinces and the north. With federal help, hydro can be extended all the way to Nunavut. To that end, the premiers of Manitoba and Nunavut have signed an agreement to get this work done. This is a project of national importance and sovereignty. It is a $1.6 billion project to connect five communities in the north to Manitoba Hydro. Some infrastructure would be built in Manitoba and quite a lot in Nunavut. It is no doubt one of the biggest nation building projects west of Ontario.

Most oil industry people now believe pipelines going east are now too costly. This is why the premier of Manitoba Wab Kinew has proposed a second port on the Hudson Bay to the European delegation at Port Nelson. A second port site runs more along solid ground than Churchill does and avoid beluga areas. There is more silt to dredge than at the deepwater port at Churchill. This isn't as out of the question as it sounds. Dredging is regularly done at ports around the world such as San Francisco Bay.

Alberta has demanded energy corridors across the country. In some private think tank reports they have said they believe parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba all the way to Hudson Bay should be carved out and given to Alberta. Hard to find those reports as they were deemed so hardcore at the time and invited mockery. The premier of Alberta Danielle Smith has threatened separation if Alberta doesn't get unfettered access to build pipelines and remove oil tanker restrictions and any control over carbon. Separation movements in Alberta threaten the Smith government itself. Even when Conservatives are elected, some elements of the province want even more that can make the province seem completely unbalanced.

Alberta and Saskatchewan with so much at stake with resources have kept pretty quiet about tariffs. Alberta has worked nearly counter to every other province. Perhaps if tariffs hit their energy and other areas as hard as Ontario has been hit? A unified Canada can be strong if provinces support one another. Much of the rest of the country seems more willing now to help Alberta with their energy economy. However, the fear of oil spills, derelict infrastructure and environmental damage can't be brushed aside. Even Albertans are not likely to support a deteriorating climate of bad air, water and abandoned rigs. Losing a few communities to wild fire also hurts.

Most of the premiers, in light of what is happening in the U.S., have talked about removing restrictions on labour movement and trade within Canada. This is a discussion that has been going for decades. Ultimately, it always seems easier to keep the sausage from Saskatchewan from entering Alberta. By the way, that's a real case presently. However, if we want the guy to be the sausage king of Canada, restrictions should be lifted across the country. Realistically, if the sausage is good enough for Saskatchewan, why not Alberta. Or Manitoba?

The first ministers need to be pushed on this all the time. Most analysis on this suggests growth that might well compensate for what is being lost on U.S. trade. Ontario deserves credit for putting legislation through on this. And Nova Scotia and New Brunswick deserve credit for signing on to free trade with Ontario. The only reason Manitoba wasn't there was because it was signing the hydro deal with Nunavut.

In terms of Liquid Natural Gas, two LNG plants are about to open in B.C. This is a cleaner burning fuel and many say it is a bridge fuel to renewables. Two more plants are coming in B.C. The U.S. has none on the west coast so far. Concerns are still being raised over flaring and methane releases but reduced coal use has been the primary goal of this building. Moreover, if the money earned from this goes to renewables, it can further mitigate warming.

I think NDP, Bloc and Green party climate policies are not able to go forward without making Canada dependent on the U.S. or world for energy supply. The Bloc was remarkably assured that Trump would not cut off oil to Quebec via pipelines in the States. He kept saying he wouldn't do it which seem tonally deaf. Trump has already done huge damage to the economy of the entire world. It isn't the Bloc who would decide such a thing in Quebec but premier of Quebec. A deal could be made if environmental protections come with it. The Bloc seems intent to obstruct anything in regard to Canada.

Culturally, we have made huge strides in books, music, TV and film. In the election the various parties have some policies in this area. The arts employs a lot of people but historically, it has required support. The Sistine Chapel didn't get the ceiling painted without support. There are debates over labour tax credits but they are tied to employment rather than just cash payments that some other jurisdictions have. Those are probably most effective but the Canadian dollar value has been the biggest factor over the decades.

Arts and media groups are afraid that the Conservatives will slash and burn all arts, newspapers, networks and music. Both provincial and federal government have given financial assistance to the arts, local news and media. The loss of local news, radio, arts groups is definitely felt. It doesn't matter what someone's political background is when a community sees their radio station close or their local theatre. Perhaps there are those that don't care and pick up a weather reports from somewhere else or they get their news from Tik Tok but then it hits with something like no hockey game. And why? Because there is no radio or TV station to broadcast it. No high speed Internet to stream it. No newspaper to report on it. And eventually no hockey team because there is no ads supporting it.

It seems likely that CBC will continue for the time being. The election results don't appear to favour a majority Conservative government who have stated that English CBC would end. The Liberal promise has been to add $150 million a year. The plan for CBC Television even before the increase has been to add reporters outside the major cities. Given the loss of so many reporters from local news, this could bring some value to programming. CBC Radio remains popular across Canada for how it is different from commercial radio and for no commercials.

The drop in flights to the U.S. particularly 

In terms of agriculture, new markets and products are always important. China remains a big purchaser of Canadian goods but we are often the receiving end of tariffs. Those often come after it becomes obvious that China is dumping steel and manufacturing products to kill off Canadian industry. Playing one industry off of the other is miserable. Selling more within Canada itself is the easiest and yet it is hard for a sausage maker to sell from one province to the other. This has to change.

Innovation in agriculture in of terms environment, new products, transportation and equipment is the future of the industry. Canola and ice wine are only some of the well known innovations but all sorts of farm equipment was invented and built in Canada. Another big thing for ag in Canada could be more processing taking place, especially if U.S. goods are tariffed. 

As far as the environment, while consumer carbon pricing is gone, the need to invest in carbon capture and energy efficiencies. The talk about reducing energy cost isn't something that Canada can do for the core price. The world market sets that. However, the government can assist in making residential and businesses less exposed to how much they consume but making sure buildings are better insulated from the elements and possibly have more solar panels. Ask any RV owner how they feel about solar. They love them.

There is a demand for alternative energy. Canada is way behind on geo-thermal although it may be best way to heat homes in the far north. The country doesn't generate any electricity from it either even though other industrialized nations are doing so. In fairness Canada has a lot of hydro electric power from the various dams across the country. Still, many provinces have reached the upper limits of how much power they can generate. Even Manitoba, which four years ago said they didn't need anymore, has revised the need based on not being able to supply new industries and growing population. The need is so great that Manitoba under and NDP government will construct a fuel burning plant for energy needs.

A programs such as the 2 billion trees planted by 2030 ish is not spending its full budget nor planting enough trees. It is always a mystery why such projects take so long to get going. It has been said that if Canada really wants to do carbon capture they need to get more trees in the ground. Even conservatives cannot be comfortable with large areas of Canada burning to the ground. Still, some oil industry people seem to be asking for all environmental controls dropped.

At the moment, the new prime minister is very close to a majority and has popular support. They key for him will be get capacity in the system to help with housing affordability and to be a federal partner on infrastructure. It won't be easy as the U.S. will be unstable for the foreseeable future. And world-wide political tensions rise and fall as do military interactions. Canada will have a difficult time trying to stay peaceful and prosperous throughout this period. 

3081 Portage Avenue Platinum Auto Closes

One moment it was there and then the next it was empty. Platinum Auto Sales, an independent car dealer has moved to Transport Road, an industrial area across town. So far I have heard nothing on what will go on the land but it being commercial property on Portage, you figure it would be big. Given the apartments nearby, perhaps that is what will be built. I hadn't noticed any zoning signs up so it is unclear if the property was sold and re-zoned.

Right up till late 1970s large areas of St. James were still undeveloped. Portage Avenue all way out to Unicity was low density and just behind the street itself was literally open fields. The site where Platinum Auto Sales had been once had the Amazon Motel situated on it. It was pretty common for motels to be on streets such Portage and Pembina Highway. Most were family owned.

For many decades though after its motel days it was been an auto dealer site . Many will remember it as the Holiday Chevrolet Oldsmobile location, a family owned dealer. It had been part of the Haddad family holdings till at least 1983. he used to market himself as the Mad Arab. He co-founded Birchwood Auto with Robert Chipman. He was well know for charitable work in Winnipeg.

As was common for much of Winnipeg's history, there were dealerships down nearly every commercial street in the city. Now, most have moved to dealer parks so that buyers can peruse several dealers and collision centers. Portage still has a few dealers left on their southside near Unicity.

In the post Covid period, the gaps in St. James as a result of business closures is slowly filling up. In many cases, developers are building up from the low density one or two floor buildings. The spot where Platinum Auto sit would be ideal. It looks like it backs right out to Sturgeon Creek. A few auto dealers have closed recently but it is not beyond possibility that someone might looks at the space. However, given its value, it feels more likely we hear a plan for this property soon.

Winnipeg Jets Play-off Game Day Experience 2025

Kyle Connor KFC on the sign at KFC at Portage Avenue as viewed headed east to downtown.
 

Dallas Stars smash car behind Underdogs. A special treat for patrons?

Walmart Unicity Renovations 2025

I have pointed out that the Walmart at Unicity is one of the smallest and until 2025 the one most in need of renovations. It is obvious Canadian execs realized that this year they had to get things with Costco opening up down the street in months. Since the company seems unable to expand the footprint of their store, they had to reorganize it since it the narrowest of aisles and the poorest laid out of all the stores in Winnipeg.

The renovations have been agonizing for residents of Charleswood/St. James and Headingly. The store is hard to navigate already so the moving of the pharmacy, floor improvements has led to wide confusion. Where the pharmacy has gone is a huge upgrade. The old location was poorly thought out.

Unicity Walmart still lacks in the deli section that the Taylor and Kenaston locations have. I can't have been to the Polo Park location recently. It is, by far, the most aggressive a Walmart in the city. From the parking lot to the grocery aisle, you are likely to be bowled over by some sharp elbowed person. Unicity has more polite crowds although the narrow aisles are there to create maximum delays and requires the patience of a saint.

The grocery aisles being constructed on the west side of the store are very long. I'm not sure if this is the final configuration so I won't pass final judgement on the store at this time.  I have complained about how Unicity Smart Complex and Walmart have shown their age over the past few years. A few stores have closed and a few opened that are probably better attracting people seven days a week. 

The the coming Costco has a lot of businesses spooked along Portage Avenue. And they should be. Gas stations in St. James have higher prices than most places in the city. Costco will make them take notice. The same applies for car dealers, tire/repair shops and automotive parts people who will have no choice but to compare prices to the big retailer. Walmart was badly in need of an upgrade lest they lose their grocery and pharmacy business to Costco.

Safeway and Sobeys have also had upgrades but I suspect they might have to do more. Post Covid, Portage still has gaps but there are apartments and some other buildings slowly starting to spring up. The former Perkins/RnR restaurant will be turned into apartments shortly. Platinum Auto (formerly Holiday Chev Olds) closed and relocated across town. It is a large site so expect to hear something soon.

There is a lot of building around Costco itself which could affect restaurants along Portage. Walmart could not let an upgrade wait any longer so they have poured hundreds of thousands into the work. This might be a stopgap. I say this because Kenaston Walmart had to upgrade several times in competition with the Costco there. The big problem is that Unicity site is just not large enough for more. Until then, we will have to be happy with an upgraded store for Walmart in Unicity.

Noble House on Amazon Prime

I had seen some of Clavell's work before I ever read any of his books. In Winnipeg or possibly on vacation trips to North Dakota, I had seen The Fly and eventually King Rat on late night TV in the 1970s. I think I saw Watusi on late night TV in the 1980s. And of course, many people got to see Clavell's work in the Great Escape. The WWII movie was exciting in a way that King Rat wasn't even though it too was a prisoner of movie as well. The latter movie was a character story and a grim one at that. Both showed a side of the war though that showed Clavells's storytelling ability.

It was his book Shogun that starred Richard Chamberlain in 1980 on NBC where everything took off. Or to be fair, the book Shogun, released in 1975, became a bestseller just as Tai-Pan had  in 1966. It often took Clavell years of research to write his Asian series of books. Noble House came out in 1981. It was shortly after Shogun came out in 1980 as a huge mini-series that the Clavell books popped up everywhere in paperback. And so I began my reading of the doorstop thick books of Clavell.

The Chamberlain Shogun series was a monster hit in North America (a total failure in Japan). While there had always been fascination with Japan especially after WWII, this introduced an interest in the early origins of contact between west and east. A theatrical version of an earlier Clavell novel was made in 1986 in China and was box office failure. It focused on the origin of Hong Kong but tried to cram too much into a movie format.

Noble House, written in 1981, raced up the bestseller list in the year after Shogun was aired. Not surprisingly, U.S. networks raced to acquire it for mini-series broadcast. The subjects for mini-series such as Roots and Shogun focused on large casts and more detailed stories than one hour police or hospital procedurals and the like.

The casting for Noble House suggests that some of TV and film's leading men were considered and either rejected the role or weren't able to do it. Timing is everything and for 1988, Pierce Brosnan became available when his series Remington Steele ended but his chance to play James Bond passes when Timothy Dalton was cast instead.

The series Remington Steele was one of the most popular and influential show in the 1980s. Airing on NBC, it starred Stephanie Zimbalist as Laura Holt, a woman who runs a private investigation service but creates a fictional male owner to overcome doubts about a woman-led company.  Pierce Brosnan, played a con-man who took on the persona of Remington Steele and the two formed a partnership. While he lacked her skill as a investigator, he quickly learned.

The show innovated the "will they or won't they" romantic sub-plot used used often now. With no Remington Steele, it is unlikely there would have been no Moonlighting. The show had legions of fans who loved Zimbalist as a relatable character who got things done but usually did so with some guy who got credit, in this case a fictional person who eventually became real.

Pierce Brosnan was an incredible actor to have available for Noble House. Deborah Raffin was cast in the female lead. Surprisingly, one of Raffin's films in the U.S. has become popular in China and she was one of the most famous of Hollywood leading ladies in that country. Filming took place in Hong Kong while still under British rule. Instead of the 1960s storyline of the books, the TV series bumped the time to 1980s Hong Kong.

The series had a mix of exotic and western at the same time and Pierce Brosnan as Ian Dunross was dashing and debonair for the whole four episodes. John Rhys-Davies made just as suave villain as Quillan Gort. The Clavell plot was slimmed down but still retained a bit of romance, espionage, action and thriller all at once. And the Noble House headquarters building using the the Jardine Matheson building was breathtaking.

Noble House has appeared on Prime before but it is never there for long and sometimes it seems like 10/15 years before it reappears but this is a great movie if someone has seen the old Shogun and new Shogun and loved Clavell's books. The original series was up against Winter Olympics programming and didn't fare as well as Shogun But make no mistake, Noble House is worth binging now.

Election Aftermath

Three months ago the result would have been very different. It is likely the Conservatives would have won a supermajority. Now, the Liberals under Carney has come up 24% in the polls and are just shy of a majority. The resignation of Trudeau, the election of Carney as leader of the Liberals, the tariffs of Trump and the 51st state talk and the collapse of the NDP all contributed to this win.

The post election speeches were telling. Poilievre congratulated the new leader and didn't dispute the result despite losing his own seat. Singh, losing his seat as well and party status, announced he would be stepping down. Blanchet lost a third of Bloc seats. He has only had to face criticism from the Quebec government for a poor campaign. Very quickly after the election, Blanchet indicated he won't be bringing the government down any time soon.

As far as Poilievre goes, he has to face his caucus to see if he can retain their support going forward. Since he lost his seat, Parliamentary rules clearly state the Opposition has to pick a leader in the House. This can be an interim leader but it has to be someone who is a MP. It appears Poilievre has called everyone to solidify his support. But his loss means he is out of the Commons for at least a few months and out of the official residence at Stornoway which is only for elected officials.

One thing is clear is that Poilievre won't be in the Commons until the fall unless Parliament has a summer sitting. And they might if Conservatives make a big deal about it. The G7 meeting is in Alberta in July and it is expected that there will several trade missions around the world. July 1 is the self-imposed deadline for a provincial free trade agreement and it looks like the country made finally get one.

The Trump Effect is not just limited to Canada. Australia just elected a a majority Labor government and the opposition Liberal (conservative) party lost, including the leader's seat. Similarly, the opposition leader in Australia had held the seat for 20 years just like Poilievre. This reversal of conservative wins worldwide will be monitored by many.

In Carney's press conference, the need for speed was emphasized. The Trump tariffs are hurting Canada and they are hurting the U.S. as well. Carney will be looking to get tariffs off of Canada in some sort of agreement. Nevertheless, the U.S. could still have a hard economy due to trade pressures around the world. This affects Canada too.

In Trump's first term, Canada tried to stay below the radar and got a trade deal. However, any hope of getting a pipeline through even under Trump's administration has proven to be fruitless. However, there are LNG projects that will come on stream in B.C. that will benefit all of Canada in terms of economic gains. On Friday, Carney met Premier Danielle Smith and she was reasonably satisfied that the discussion was productive.

An Alberta tradition is to bash Ottawa. However, I think she is aware that if she takes it too far, it may involve violence towards the federal government. There is no control if it devolves to that. As in the time of Covid where some Albertans gathered arms and planned an event at the border, the fear is that there will be a move from politics to terrorism. It seems very unlikely Alberta wants to see what happens to districts that vote on separation. It hurt Quebec badly and still places them in jeopardy.

Carney will have a difficult time to navigate the path on the U.S. but the key will be to agree to negotiations. Any growth plan he has for Canada will have to be get free trade in the country moving. Infrastructure will be key. And looking for trade relationships outside of the U.S. As for the rest, I expect Carney will be looking to keep free speech and democracy strong. He is likely to show tolerance but not be the lightning rod that Trudeau was.

In the end, being an adult, focusing on the economy might be enough to forestall and election for a year or more. Trudeau managed to keep his government going till the edge of the cliff. The trick will be to avoid senseless provocative stances and continue to focus on economy. Even environmental work needs to focus on affordability and sensible and measurable improvements in people lives. A national energy grid comes to mind. Electricity, natural gas and the like but also a real push for supports for new windows, doors, insulation and new technologies. And most importantly, housing. This is what hits many people the hardest. Improve on that and some of the other things will feel less terrible.

The Healing Election Speech for Canada

The speech that should be given on election night to bring the country together after the vote is in and the results announced:

What a night. It is with great humility that I take on the task of this great enterprise we can call Canada. I couldn't have done this alone and I thank my family and my party that helped and guided me from coast to coast to coast. We have elected MPs in every part of the country, my friends, in places where we haven't had representatives in some time. It is a huge honour and a responsibility we take seriously. And we will not let the Canadian people down!

To all the candidates from all the parties, I thank you for committing to the great democratic process of Canada. I have spoken to my opponent in the election and wish him and his family well. His public service over the years deserves recognition and while we disagreed over policy, I wish him the best. Likewise, I extend my gratitude to the other opposition leaders tonight for their service.

(repeated in French)

The mandate we have received this evening from Canadians is a strong one. It is an expression of national unity that comes along at certain times in our history and it is one that Canadians have consistently answered. It is fair to say that external factors made us take a hard look at ourselves and we have risen to the occasion. Tonight's election results are proof of that!

The strong and cross country mandate means we go back to our nation's capital with both determination borne of national unity. We are not an artificial country as described by one individual. We are not a 51st state as said by another individual. We are a country bounded together by language, culture, business and 13 provinces and territories with common cause. One country, united and strong!

(repeated in French)

I know that when we return to Ottawa, we will have the support needed to respond to the challenges to our sovereignty. Our goals remain the same as what we campaigned on. We wish to unite the people and to thwart those that would try to annex us or break us a part in separation. To that end, I say to those that didn't vote for us: We have heard you and we won't let you down.

In the past, it was too easy for us to think we could tie ourselves to peace, security and prosperity with our southern partner. At home we have faced extraordinary challenges and continue to navigate through them. This has resulted in inflation, supply chain issues, tariffs and employment instability. What has been unexpected has been that our longtime friend and ally has targeted Canada in ways that they have not even done to long time rivals! We have defended ourselves in the past and we will do so in the present and in the future!

(repeated in French)

Canada's energy needs at home and exports abroad need to move through Canada. Eastern Canada relies on pipelines that go through the U.S. which makes the country vulnerable. Future pipelines south have not had much success through three administrations. The TMX pipeline built by the Liberal government has been the one that has helped the west along with the approved LNG plants on the coast. Oil will continue to be important to Canada until we improve renewables through infrastructure and technology.

To that end, we will be supporting east-west energy grids as well as ones extending north. We will be reaching out to our provincial and indigenous partners to make Canada independent for our own needs and to whom we sell to. And we will looking to do more carbon capture, accelerating tree planting (the ultimate things to remove carbon) as well as move to cleaner renewables through investment an technology. We can not let people suffer from loss of employment, living in poverty and depravation because of moves to cleaner energy. Nor can we let communities be consumed by fire, flood and loss of life due to inaction on climate. It will require balanced and caring approach and that is what you will see from this government!

(Repeated in French)

We have heard Canadians and will make housing, healthcare and affordability priorities. We have heard our allies and will commit to defense spending as well as purchasing it more at home and using our steel and aluminum. We are committed to our indigenous communities, the north and provinces from west to east. We will fulfill our obligation for a just and peaceful society based on law and convention. People need to know they are safe to live their lives and not fear crime will rob them of their right to live without fear.

We have a renewed sense of pride and purpose in Canada and we will make this journey together. All of us. Together!

(Repeated in French)

Lastly, while talk was of elbows up in the country, we always remember when it is at the end and all is said and done, we shake hands because that is the country we live in. (In French) Canada will be united and joyful about what who we are. (In French) Thank you, merci and good night. Thank you, merci, Canada!

Crime in Manitoba

It isn't just in Winnipeg that crime has taken a new turn. Armed gangs at farms have got rural folk scared. By it's very definition it is organized crime and based on the weapons they are carrying would be a threat to any who encountered them. Meanwhile in the city, murder continues to take place sometimes two times in a day. The police have been quick to make arrests in some of those which is good. The murder suspects are remanded.

Winnipeg continues to have to deal with arson. Vacant properties take too long to find new purpose and sometimes end up burned down. The wreckage takes forever to clear and then the empty lot stays that way for decades as no one wants to risk putting something up. This is what is happening to north Main where large tracts are knocked down.

A nascent national housing strategy of house building has begun. It is early stages but we have seen more houses, townhouses, duplexes and apartments go up all over. A change to student visas has seen major drops of temporary students nation-wide. The lack of housing support post secondary intuitions provided and the wide open work that was allowed for students made this inevitable. 

It is possible we may see changes to the student visa applications that put more onus on colleges providing for or arranging for housing as well as restricted work schedules for students. Some schools like University of Winnipeg have been great at building new housing. The University of Manitoba has been terrible. As it is, the shortage of affordable housing has meant more people on the street.

More than 30 years of homelessness, an increase in the potency of addictive drugs and cost of living going up has been a deadly combination. This combination of things and a whole lot more have contributed to thefts from stores not seen before, behaviour that is belligerent and sometimes violent and often with no seeming consequences. A lot of it is driven by drugs which proliferate more today than any jurisdiction seems to be able to get a handle on.

Winnipeg Police said in 2024 that they need 78 more officers. The service has asked for this while buying a new helicopter, artificial intelligence and robot dogs. The 1,300 officers generally make more than 100,000 and retirements for full pensions start shortly after 50 years old. The budget for Winnipeg Police is the largest line item with over $300 million a year in the city budget. 

Police themselves say better security comes from not just having 78 more police on the streets. It requires more social and law reform, better housing, prison changes and social assistance which hasn't changed in years. Pierre Poilievre has introduced three strikes you are out with 10 years in prison as an election policy. That is one solution. It isn't the only one. Certainly violent offenders cannot keep offending. And repeat offenders need to know their freedom is at stake for petty crime that never stops. But three strikes ended up with prisons bursting at the seams in the states and costing a lot of money.

As for rural police, the provincial NDP have assigned money for more tactical officers, more communications officers and more civilians to the the tune of millions. The PCs have called it as a distraction when the RCMP is so short of constables. It is important to remember they were short under the Stefanson government as well. This is a problem that needs fixing and it will probably take all parties working on it.

The violence happening in hospitals is unacceptable. Nurses, doctors and patients are all in far too much danger. And it isn't just the case of downtown hospitals. There is security at hospitals but clearly more needs to be done. Scanning stations, cameras, patrols and safety audits to ensure there are places that are not security issues.

If people continue to have cars and homes broken into, houses burned down, witness theft from stores every leaves parts of the city defeated and prepared to leave if no action is taken. It isn't normal carrying knives everywhere and using them all the time. Or guns. Those are choices people make. 

Addictions centers are still too few and too long to wait for. Overdoses are frequent due to the strength of the drugs and the many things that end up being mixed in there. Too many places are drug houses or drug distribution centers. Encampments crop up because the people there are sometimes too high and violent to spend night in a shelter. 

The plan to address one encampment after another is a good one if it gets people into housing, assigns a case worker to them and results if a site clean up and frequent follow-up that an encampment doesn't keep popping up. None of this works with backsliding. So much difficulty begins when there is not consistent transition work. If the goal is to reduce police involvement, it means zero tolerance for violence. 

The provincial government is looking to set up a safe injection site but it could be that those going to the site are vulnerable to violence or prone to violence. The issue of what happens to the areas where a site is set up suggests that schools, daycares should not be in proximity. Those same rules apply to cannabis and liquor stores as well. There is already a mobile unit that is in Winnipeg. One wonders if trying to place a site in a place in a city as widespread as Winnipeg is useful or safe.

There won't be one perfect approach to crime in Manitoba. Some of it will be to continue support for community services and school for young people so that they have safe places and good influences. Some of the good news is that cigarette smoking is way down, alcohol consumption down and this reflected in fewer bars as people just don't drink as much and smoking is fairly restricted in where it can be done and where product can be purchased. 

In past crime spikes, they were dealt with by identifying the most most brazen such as multiple arsons, violent offenses or repeat offenses by getting them off the streets. They were remanded and dealt with by the courts. Rehabilitation is possible but only with good supports and that means parole, probation, transition housing, drug and alcohol monitoring and job training and placement. It makes no sense to discharge someone who has no supports and is in a strange city. It is a recipe for disaster as we have seen.

And lastly, Stony Mountain is the oldest federal penitentiary in Canada and one where inmates die at all too frequent rate. It is very likely in need of replacing. Headingley Correctional is also a very old prison that has had it's share of unrest. If rehabilitation is to take place, it can't be without supports, addictions programs and not solitary confinement for days on end.

The way to beat crime is to raise the level of self sufficiency in society. In the past that was a very large middle income for the greatest amount of people. If there are extreme poverty levels, it crushes many people's commitment to the social order. No amount of police can control millions without jobs, homes and food. It is something to keep in mind on forming policy on crime. It isn't just crime. It is about well being.

 

Von Maur Department Store Now Open in Fargo

Manitobans travelling to North Dakota had to brave two lanes of traffic and no passing lanes on Highway 75 from Winnipeg to the border until twinning took place from 1985 to 1994. The U.S. in North Dakota completed twinning in 1977 from Pembina all the way to Fargo. The old border stations were easy to cross. Even in the 1970s they were tiny things. Families easily crossed with no IDs. Just a few basic questions. It was the return back to Canada and the low amount of duty free that was a concern. Only in the last decade or so has it risen to higher amounts.

Before Grand Forks and Fargo had malls built, Winnipeggers shopped in their department stores downtown. They also stayed in motels near the downtown. North Dakota was years behind Winnipeg when it came to malls. Fargo would be the first with a mall called West Acres in 1972. It would take two more years for 13th Avenue to be built in front of it. Looking west was wheat fields. Fargo itself was more than a mile a way.

While Winnipeggers continued to stay in Grand Forks and shop in the downtown there, it was not uncommon for families to make a quick day trip to West Acres once the mall was built in 1972.  The lack of hotels nearby and two years of road construction thereafter put those off who wanted to actually stay in Fargo to shop at the new mall. For our family, we stayed for years at the Townhouse in Grand Forks near the downtown because it had an indoor swimming pool. Others stayed in the Holiday Inn from the Holidome that was built in 1966. The Ramada went up in 1973 next door. The pools and event centers inside were more important to people from Winnipeg than staying in Fargo where hotels near West Acres were not popping up till at least 1974.

Although Winnipeg had malls like Polo Park and Grant Park Mall, people were still quite used to going downtown for shopping and restaurants. So shopping downtown Grand Forks was not considered unusual. Still, the construction of West Acres Mall was a gamechanger in border shopping for Canadians.

But as the above picture shows, it was in the middle on nowhere and motels took a bit longer to materialize. It was a good day trip from Grand Forks but not enough to attract those headed down for a two day weekend. And remember, the Canadian part of the journey was on a two lane highway and the Interstate was only finished off in 1977. It could be a harrowing journey with a semi trailer behind you.

The trip to West Acres though was a different experience than what Canadians had experienced in North Dakota though and many curious travellers went to shop. What they found was local Fargo department store Delendrecies, Minnesota-based retailer Dayton's and national retailer Sears. It was the smaller stores and their variety that attracted Winnipeggers as well such Hickory Farms and Musicland. By 1979, in an expansion, West Acres added J.C. Penny. 

Many changes in retail over the decades meant Delendrecies eventually becoming Herbergers in 1998. Dayton's became Marshall Fields in 2001 and Macy's in 2006. In recent years Herberger's and Sears have closed leaving malls all over the U.S. scrambling. It was only in 2000-01 that West Acres put in a food court. In one of the empty spaces left from department store closing, the mall has created The District which features restaurants inside and outside the mall. Crave, a sushi restaurant from Minnesota was the first tenant.

Best Best eventually moved into the mall in 2017 in 50,000 square feet of Sear which shuttered in 2017 after 45 years in the mall. Best Best had been next door since 1994 in a 45,000 square foot location. West Acres has shown considerable resiliency when compared to Columbia Mall in Grand Forks. However, when Herberger's closed, the question of what to do with the space was a big one. A few retailers looked at the space and nothing resulted. That is until a mid-west department store that somehow does well when national retailers are dropping.

Von Maur is a fourth generation family run department store founded in 1872 out in Davenport, Iowa. It has slowly grown to 39 stores across the U.S. The 39th store of 90,000 square feet will be in Fargo, North Dakota. It is Von Maur's first store in the state. Perhaps as a family store that doesn't have to fight takeovers of their shares, they have been able to make decisions on their business that has allowed them to survive and expand over the years. 

So what is Von Maur? It is a department store catering to upscale fashion for men and women. They carry a number of fashion lines and have not tried to do so many general merchandise things like Sears or other department stores have. In other words, they have stayed focused on what they are good at. Perhaps the one department store comparable in Canada is Simon's. That is another example of slow, steady and focused while staying privately owned.

Von Maur's also runs a newer, larger mall store group called Dry Goods USA which has over 80 stores across the U.S. including West Acres. All in all Von Maur's and West Acres are a good match. The mall owners there never gave up on finding tenants. And Von Maur has looked for placed where their unique offerings might work. Unlike Columbia Mall which is largely empty, West Acres is set to remain relevant into the future.

The only thing that might hurt the retail success of West Acres is the tariffs. If higher prices lead to a recession and prices spiking from products that have tariffs, there could be problems. How much does Von Maur have from China on the shelf? How many farmer face tariffs selling into China. As far as Canadian tourists go, the numbers are dropping each month. Fargo is no longer part of a lot of people's travel plans. Canada might be in recession already and people will pull back on spending. And no, Canada will not beg to become the 51st state nor welcome an invasion. It just means we will seek other markets until things change in the U.S.

Some businesses won't notice the drop but they will notice the price changes. The tariffs are still fresh and they will be hard to ignore. At the moment, until the pain reaches into every aspect of the economy, most people will ignore it. The question will be what will be the response?

Fargo is a fine city and West Acres a fine mall. They seem to be doing everything they can to continue prosperity and hospitality. Attracting Von Maur is an indication they are doing everything right. At some point, I hope Canadians will be able to enjoy it in the future.

Poilievre vs Carney and Threat of Western Separation

What a difference a few months and an external factor like Donald Trump can have on electoral fortunes. Pierre Poilievre seemed to be sailing into one of the most massive majorities in Canadian history for the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau was determined to go into the next election until the opposition said they were going to pull the plug at the earliest opportunity. This led to a flurry of Liberals saying they were not going to run again next election. With cabinet holes to fill, he looked to move the Finance minister Chrystia Freeland to some other position to bring in, allegedly, Mark Carney into Finance. 

Freeland's resignation was the moment that Trudeau found there was just not enough support in the caucus to carry on. And Mark Carney, who opted not to jump into a cabinet with a lameduck PM. He just had to wait till a leadership convention was called. A prorogued Parliament and a leadership convention was a re-set from how 2025 began. As interim PM till the leadership was decided, Justin Trudeau probably had the two best best months an outgoing leader could have. Carney became the PM and had streamlined cabinet sworn in. However, support for Liberals had been steadily rising every time Trump imposed or threatened tariffs. By the time Carney became PM the Liberals had pulled numbers not seen in years.

Oddly enough, even though the Conservatives said they were going to bring the government down, they haven't seemed unprepared this far. They have not been able to adjust to the constant changing campaign that Trump's proclamations bring. Carney has not been perfect thus far. Some of his MPs have gotten in trouble. Some he has removed including his own seat and some he stubbornly keeps in place. One recent MP stepped down after he defended him. It is early in campaign and not uncommon for leaders to have a few candidates who don't work out. It remains to be seen whether these incidents hurt Carney. Or Poilievre. Generally, most people don't pay attention to these incidents.

Preston Manning suggests that anything less that a Poilievre majority win is a vote for Alberta separation. This is the same type of blackmail that Quebec has used over the years. Sad that it comes from Manning who has generally been considered to be not be as extreme. It could be that speaking to the volatile male base of the party makes him presume such an outcome. The enormous gender gap in what polls are saying could make for some surprises. Some men are just not opposed to Liberals. They are angrily opposed. However, if that is the case then it can be said women are even more resolutely opposed to Conservatives. 

This is something to keep in mind when voting on separation takes place. What do women think about this? Truly. A landlocked Conservative province separating? Most polls suggest that only a small minority want a 51st state in Alberta. That same percentage is in Quebec in terms of 51st state. The most recent polling on separation from Canada in Alberta stands at about 20. Still a minority view. Manning's 

If Poilievre is having a hard time figuring an angle with Carney, it is the same problem with all the opposition leaders including Blanchet from the BQ. The more Trump fills the airwaves, the more a unity movement grows. For the moment it is in support of Carney since he is the prime minister. And as such, Carney's response generally has the backing of all the premiers. It is enviable position to be in during the election. Usually the caretaker role is less pronounced. However, it can be said that the authority to respond to an emergency overrides this. Looking like a prime minister is what many Canadians are looking for. 

The premier of Alberta flirts with separation but also calls it nonsense. She knows the polls show it to be a possible loser for her. Danielle Smith already has enough problems in the province as she breaks the crockery. And yet Poilievre does little to distance himself. The person he does need help from his Doug Ford from Ontario and yet never seems to ask. Ford has found it easier to deal with Trudeau and Carney.

At this point in the election, it is clear that neither the premier of Alberta or Poilievre are interested in talking about separation of Alberta or Quebec. Even flirting with it is likely to do harm in Ontario. And that is where he need seats. According to polls, the heavily Conservative Alberta has a loathing for any Trudeau Liberals going back 60 years. However, when they've elected two Conservative majorities, they have felt pretty miserable about that too. 

The polls could be the most off we have ever seen in Canadian history given the crowds turning up for Poilievre. However, Winnipeggers know that just because we loved and turned up in numbers for Phantom of the Paradise, it didn't mean it was a blockbuster. 

It is possible that Carney's French might hold him back or that he stumbles badly in upcoming debates but the desire for stability is something the electorate craves. Poilievre has said he will disturb that but he has said everything is broken. That message is tone deaf when the public fears the country will be carved up by external enemies. Many take a dim view that Conservatives may in fact desire that outcome. For this reason, the polls have been reflecting a new dynamic not seen in Canada ever.

Three weeks are left in the campaign and the only thing we can say is that it is volatile out there.

 

The Out of Town Visitor to Jets Fan Experience

 

Once again an influencer has come in to town to see the Winnipeg Jets and offer commentary on the city and its offerings when it comes to the fan experience. I won't post his links here but for those interested, it was in regards to the team playing Buffalo Sabres. The game was a loss and the crowd was not at their most animated. It happens. A dull, cold day and an afternoon game on a Sunday is more likely to attract young families, especially for last place Sabres.

Jets were ripe for the picking with some of the Winnipeg players on Sabres having great games. Good for those guys. As for Jets, the first place team is still pushing to stay on top and go to the playoffs all the way. It has drawn notice from hockey and sports fans all over North America. Some of them have come all the way to the city to experience the team. And in some cases rip the city for even having a team.

This is what happened with the vlogger who visited the city for three days and questions why the NHL ever gave Winnipeg a team. To put it bluntly, the Jets got a team because Atlanta Thrashers was just not able to succeed despite a small passionate fanbase. With only one playoff run, the Thrashers struggled and not even first round picks, big acquisitions and patience from the NHL was able to change that. Winnipeg got the team because they built a new arena, had an ownership group and ready to bail out the league if a franchise was about to go. 

The Thrashers team that Winnipeg got was a one line team with literally not much in draft and development. None of the coaching staff moved over. And yet overjoyed Winnipeg fans bought all the tickets and provided years of waiting lists. I think it is quite undeniable that the Jets have built one of the strongest franchises today for draft and development, coaching and player enrichment. They have frequently updated their facility and added the iceplex and have done much to improve the fan experience around the arena.

The ownership of the Winnipeg Jets is held by the Chipman and Thomson family. The Chipmans, known for the Birchwood Auto Group, and the Thomsons, known for Reuters. David Thomson is thought to be richest owner in the NHL. He came to be owner after a long business association with Winnipeg as owner of the Free Press and CKRC. He was also a long time fan of the Jets.

The Jets ownership, management and facility are not in question. Could the arena be bigger? Sure. It has been expanded as much as it can be in its present form. It has three professional teams that use it and has a full concert docket. It is a moneymaker. Jets owners have also purchased the Burton Cummings Theatre to help manage its concerts and event business. They have built real estate investments around the arena to enhance the entertainment district.

It is important to keep in mind that the Jets are just part of the overall business. The Manitoba Moose and owning the Canada Life Centre contribute to the True North bottom line. Rental of arena to the Winnipeg Sea Bears and concerts help pay for overall operations. Moreover, the Jets have bought Portage Place and the $3 million a year in that parkade money is now in True North's hands. The Hockey for All Centre iceplex in Headingley serves as the practice facility for the Jets and Moose and is the central tournament spot for amateur hockey in Manitoba.

Sales of tickets were up 12% as of January for Jets. Corporate sales have also gone up and it has been a focus for the True North Entertainment group since fall. Millions have been spent to enhance fan experience and most visitors to the arena usually remark at how engaged the fans are. For this year, it might in playoffs where it is most important for the Jets organization to not only fill the arena but the streets. The economic benefits of the playoffs are enormous and the good wills and community engagement is what the team can build on and for the city to prosper.

The Jets have acknowledged they need more corporate sales. How they do a re-set is something that will have to evolve. The are many companies in Manitoba and some will have to be won over again or for the first time. In other words, corporate sales are not just about what is good for the Jets but what is good for the companies. And to thread the needle, the team can't lose the enthusiastic crowd for corporate seats where people don't show up. They need to make going to the Jets as vital to regular season tickets holders as it is to companies.

One accusation about Leafs playoffs is that the regular season ticket holders can't afford the corporate price of their seats later on. And the people who can get those seats just don't respond like the fans who were there for 41 regular season games. Thankfully, that hasn't been what is seen in Jets games. That is sometimes the trade-off that seats are sold out but passionate fans are fewer. It isn't always the case but happens often enough to be commented on.

A few sports operations have reported that the attractiveness of box seats has lessened while corporate meeting rooms at sports facilities has increased. If this true, we might see a reduction in box seats as we presently have within the arena. Apparently, Toronto has started creating more business meeting spaces for Leafs games. I assume regular bowl seats suffice if there is a meeting room before, during and after the game.

Most out of town fans to the Jets come to Winnipeg from all over Manitoba, Northwest Ontario and sometimes Saskatchewan. The rare guests come from elsewhere in Canada or international. Those that travel to Winnipeg for a game are often coming for shopping, visiting family and going out to restaurants. At the old Winnipeg Arena, people used to stay at the Viscount Gort or the Polo Park Inn (later Canad Inns Polo Park). At the Viscount it was possible that visiting fans would run into the visiting team staying in the same hotel.

Today, it is not much different and out of town fans stay in their favourite hotels based on their shopping and entertainment needs. Some will stay where they have always stayed near Polo Park for water slides or for familiar hotels. Others have been staying at downtown hotels even if the shopping is elsewhere. In some ways, the old Polo Park location was already a hugely successful entertainment area. The 20 year old arena downtown is slowly building up to become an entertainment area.

Like most developments in Winnipeg, the entertainment district is years behind schedule. The discussion over the slow pace of Sutton Place Hotel has been made on this blog. It does appear that the speed should increase but it has been 8 years of waiting so far for the hotel and the restaurants that come with it such as Chop. In the good news category, The Keg is building a large restaurant at St. Mary and Donald, kitty corner to Cityplace and the Canada Life Centre. Once Chop goes up, there will be four steakhouses within walking distance of the arena.

A number of restaurants have opened in the Exchange and in Osborne Village which is an indication that restaurants are slowly coming back after the loss of so many over the last five years. Recovery downtown is much slower but the True North development of Portage Place and the new Pan Am Clinic will mean thousands of people in the area seven days a week. Expect some coffee shops, breakfast places and other restaurants to crop up around the area as the food court will be eliminated for the clinic.

It is expected the Portage Place and even further down the street Bay development will proceed faster than other projects. That is good because they have had several years of stalled work between the Canada Life Centre and RBC Convention Centre has been inconvenient and contributes to a sense of no life around the arena. The road is always an obstacle course and year after year of nothing. The moment it opens it will transform the area.

However, returning to the question of why Winnipeg has an NHL franchise. It has a a franchise because despite being a small market, it has a better facility than many other cities in the NHL. It has a richer and more stable ownership than most in the NHL. It has a very good management team that has been able draft and develop players which is what Atlanta was great at. It has owners trying to create a fan experience inside and outside the arena area. It has a good TV and radio broadcast team. It has good print coverage and a fair size podcasting coverage. It has a new strategy to increase corporate sales.

The Jets are number 1 in the league and some people keep thinking the team should be moved. It isn't going anywhere when the league has so many franchises that could be in need before the Jets are. Even the New Your Rangers could be moving to a new facility across the street. The Calgary Flames are in the process of building a new arena but the city of Calgary owns it. Salt Lake City has an old arena and no immediate plans to build a new one. Jets have one of the newer arenas with the only criticism that is should have 3000 more seats. I imagine the Jets have a soon to be announced plan for arena expansion or a second arena. The reason is that the city would like to have a women's pro hockey team, a women's pro basketball team and possibly, a WHL team. Can't very well do that with one arena.

So to those who wonder why Winnipeg has a franchise, it is because they are building an organization to that. And that will mean we'll see the fan experience from NHL to concerts become more important for putting fans in the seats. And for the out of towers, we have to make it is the best experience we can.

Trump Dismisses Pierre Poilievre

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370211707112

Conservatives in Canada are probably in disbelief. Two months ago it looked as if there were going to face Justin Trudeau and go to get a supermajority of seats in Canada. The latest polls suggest the biggest defeat for the Conservatives in decades. It could be there has been a boost as a result of Trudeau's resignation and for the subsequent Liberal leadership race but the real driver of polls in Canada has been Donald Trump.

Tariffs have dominated the discussion and fear has pervaded across Canada. Trudeau in his final weeks probably showed the best leadership with the provinces that anyone had seen in three years. Every insult aimed at Canada and Trudeau saw Liberal support rise. Showing fortitude worked for Dough Ford as well who rode a wave of unity to a third term for the PCs in Ontario.

Pierre Poilievre literally had to change tact of saying everything was wrong with Canada to defending Canada against Trump. His campaign needed to change as soon as Trudeau announced he was stepping down but his party seems to think that they just have to say that the new PM Mark Carney is just like Trudeau. Clearly the polling suggests that voters don't think so.

Trump has dumped on Poilievre for not being MAGA enough just when Canadians are looking for a leader who will not just stand up for Canada. The problem is that there are a lot of Trump supporters in the Conservative party and a fair number who support being 51st state. Poilievre treads a fine line of being critical of Trump tariffs and not making his base unhappy. He wants to keep the focus on the Liberals leaders but Trump comments on Canada every day. The people of Canada have no choice but to focus on Trump because of the tariff issues ands existential threat to Canada. Pussyfooting is not going to cut it.

If Conservatives thought Trump would be the best thing in the world for them and that his success would be success for them, they can't be more shocked than they are now. Some in the media are saying that Trump saying Poilievre is no friend of Trump's is a good thing. The FOX interview with Laura Ingraham tried to steer the conversation to China multiple times but Trump wasn't having it. He full on said he doesn't support Poilievre and said he'd prefer to work with a Liberal.

Canadians are in a mood not seen since World War II. There is a nationalism and determination to face the challenge.  Shopping habits and travel changes borne of betrayal and anger are happening each day. Buying Canadian and travelling to non-U.S. destinations is producing noticeable numbers. Canadian leaders who are not standing up for the country or who sound like Trump could face resistance.

This is matter of great difficulty for Poilievre because he has pocketed phrases by the bushel from Trump and leans heavily on sloganeering. Given the polls, it might not be working. Or conversely worked so well that he had already defeated Trudeau, Singh and all the policies he has singled out over two years. 

But Poilievre can't overcome Trump himself. And as the election has started, it could be very well that he has no time to pivot. It is early on though. It may not matter if the NDP, Green and BQ support collapse and go the Liberals.

Will The Bay Close in Winnipeg and Elsewhere?

 

It is hard to believe there are only two Bay stores left in Manitoba, both in Winnipeg's largest malls St. Vital Centre and Polo Park but it is a reflection of how far department stores have sunk. This isn't just true of Canada but all around the world. There are a few strong luxury brands out there but a generalist middle income store has struggled.

The Bay has a line of credit from Cadillac Fairview, owner of Polo Park and other top malls in the country. They have not been receiving rent despite the cutbacks from the store to save money. This week BBC went into creditor protection to stop from being seized by landlords. The rumour is that 40 of 80 stores might be closed and that the licensed Sak's and Off Fifth Sak's may end up shuttered as well.

For some who have not shopped at The Bay in years, it is probably no surprise. In recent years, the Bay was trying to cater to the luxury market. Then they went for some Zellers nostalgia. Will it be enough to save HBC? We have seen store after store collapse recently. The Bay is one of the largest department stores out there still.

Some stores that have gone bankrupt and lived to see another another day with new Canadian ownership. HMV, Toys R Us, Northern Reflections and a few others are seeing new life. American ownership is not always going to be the right ownership for Canadian business now more than ever.

If the Bay ends up closing their locations at Polo Park and St. Vital Centre, expect something more dramatic as a replacement. It could be sub-divided into stores but it could also be turned into hotels, food halls and apartments. Even the big malls like Mall of America have been hurt by closures. Sears closing has left a huge hole in their mall and a long time lease has them trying to sort it all out.

Manitoba has been fortunate to turn around most malls that have had a major anchors leave have coped by filling it with other users. Some malls have converted to box stores instead. The ones that didn't like the Portage la Prairie Mall eventually lose one too many anchors and close.

As the details emerge about the precarious financial situation of the The Bay, it seems impossible that any of the company can survive. It owes $1 billion and credit protection will look to see what, if anything, can be done to emerge from that state. Anything of real value, like the real estate, has been sold off over many years.

It shouldn't be too long to see what the outcome will be. There is no doubt that if the company does come out of this, it will be much smaller. And sadly, that might mean that Winnipeg has no Bay stores.

Trump Speech to Congress

The U.S. Congress requires the President to give Congress occasional updates in an address on the state of the union. It is Article 2 of the Construction. Since the time of Ronald Reagan in 1981, an address has been shortly after taking office. Trump's speech was in keeping with that tradition. This was longest address in history and covered a lot.

The 47th President addressed the 119th Congress at Capitol Hill in the longest speech in modern history. It was a combination of script and improvisation and very much a victory lap. The Democrats looked very much defeated and quite frankly, shabby. They wore shirts with messages, carried paddles with messages they kept flashing to the camera. At one point a Democrat had to be escorted off the floor as he was shouting at Trump. 

Throughout the long speech, Democrats heckled and booed. At one time this was just not done. Now it is normalized. This is a reflection of the leaderless aspect of the Democratic party. Biden and Harris are out of sight. The minority leaders in the Senate and House of Representatives have been unable to show real leadership. The Democrats are rudderless with only brief example examples of policy and direction since their federal defeat.

Even in Canada in can be hard to be in opposition even though we have a formalized role for in our democracy. If the government has the majority, it can mean little coverage of opposition parties. Media often doesn't cover anyone except premiers and prime ministers. It isn't great for democracy as a leader-centric system means people are too scared to say anything even when it is clear that it will hurt the them. 

This could be as true for Trudeau and it is for Trump. It is not even 100 day into the presidency but Trump changes positions sometimes a few times in a day.  Trudeau is finished and a new prime minster will be in place. And that new leader will have the same powers as the old one. It is how our system has been set in place. Power used to be more diffuse.

Trump is very good at TV for the most part but his speeches can go on for quite a bit. He crafts himself as entertainment. His jabs at his opponents have been and always will be merciless. Republicans have largely gone silent or just let things happen. Some have tried to mimic his approach but it isn't something that other people have been able to translate into success.

Democrats sitting in the audience did a terrible job of sitting in opposition. Their dress, their paddles with slogans and constant shouting made them look like they were not ready to run a hotdog stand. Consider the professional appearance and demeanor the NDP in Manitoba had just prior to becoming government. They dressed and acted like a government in waiting. The policies were considered better than what the other side was proposing. 

Being in opposition isn't easy. It requires ways to look relevant and oppose in meaningful ways. Some get attention with bluster and histrionics. It can help pull down your opponent but hurt your own likeability. It is unclear how Democrats will become relevant but when in doubt, focus on the economy. It is what worked for Clinton. And at the moment, the economy looks roughs and Trump is at the helm.

Canadian Snowbird Choices

It used to be in the 1960s and 1970s that snowbirds were people who spent 2 to 4 weeks in warmer climates over winter. Back then, a trip might be taken renting a cheap place in Florida. Many people drove to that state as it was rare to find direct or charter flights from a place like Winnipeg. And people wanted to have their cars with them.

Arizona was not really a snowbird destination until later in the 1980s and 1990s and continuing today. Palm Springs, California was generally for wealthier people. Texas has had snowbirds over the decades. Direct flights to any of those places wasn't exactly easy in early years. And now having a car in the U.S. was not exactly convenient.

Hawaii has had charters and connecting flights for nearly 50 years but it is unusual for stays to be nearly 6 months based on the expense. Flying, accommodation and transportation has limited the state compared to places like Florida and Arizona where someone might spend time there with an RV rather a condo or trailer.

Travel of any kind to the U.S. is often a reflection of the exchange rates, level of wealth within Canada and attractions. The Canadian dollar in the 1970s was near or above U.S. dollar for many years. It made vacation travel an easy decision. By the 1980s/1990s the dollar could easily change how many people went to the States. When the dollar was .63 to the U.S. currency some people limited their travel quite a bit. In recent years it has been about .70 and has slid to .69 with the growing tariff talk.

In some years it seemed like Canadians were headed down for vacation mixed with shopping every weekend while others were away for six months less a day every year. Some of the stores that shoppers flocked to are now in Canada as are some of the restaurants. Prices for items such as electronics are better in Canada as are car purchases. Still, entertainment such as Las Vegas or Nashville or climate like California or Arizona are hard to compete with.

Many seniors have had more money from rising real estate and from pension savings over the years. Living healthy and longer lives has meant more time for travel and the means to do it for longer. Seniors in the 1970s just didn't live decades past 65 as they do now and certainly didn't have the money to stay for six months in places like Florida. In recent years though it became very common and for the many to start at ages much earlier than 65.

Price has always been the thing that has limited Canadians visiting the U.S. Even during the difficult times like the Vietnam War, Canadian visited and stayed in U.S. because our personal relationship with Americans and the American people were too separate things. Now the relationship feels very personal. How personal? It means Canadians too close to Trump like Gretzky and Orr are now being shunned.

Things are changing in terms of where snowbirds seek to escape the cold and it isn't just because Trump was elected. Florida has been hit by repeated hurricane and tornado weather. Some find they are denied insurance or find their insurance has gone up steeply. One Canadian said their insurance had gone up from $4000 a year to $16,000. Healthcare costs are a concern too. As people get older, their insurance goes up for travel to the point that they can't afford to go down anymore. Also, you have to be healthy to travel and losing a partner often starts the process of selling a place you don't want to go to anymore. Florida has a more complicated and expensive process of even selling your property to your family compared to Arizona or California.

For Florida, all of these things are piling up. Health, insurance (both personal and property) and now politics has people from Canada selling. They are cancelling trips as well. It is shocking to Florida locals when they hear one of the reasons for selling or not coming is because of Trump and his tariff threats. Florida people have been befuddled that people are taking Trump seriously, including the 51st state taunts.

All of this has turned Florida into a state with falling real estate prices and empty houses. Not all of it is Canadians de-camping. However, after many disasters some people are just not able to rebuild after perhaps doing it before. In some cases, people can't get permits to rebuild in areas deemed unsafe. House prices are dropping all over the state and people are trying to sell before it gets worse. 

Will it recover? Will Canadians flock back? It is possible. The insurance issues means between 15-20% of the population of property owners in Florida have no insurance. That doesn't bode well for the next weather issues that always come up in that state. And as Canadians owners in Florida get older, their health insurance also gets higher. This will be challenging in every year after 65 for most people. One health scare could boost insurance or have the insurance company require a return to Canada to get a health update every few months rather than have an emergency happen while spending time south of the border.

The next four years could be tough for Florida. Canadians have a huge impact on the economy there but politics, insurance, aging and other choices could see citizens choosing other places for warm holidays. The Canadian dollar could have the biggest impact of them all. If it slips lower, Canadians will look for places where it stretches more and that might not be the United States.

Canadian snowbirds will have choices to make. If tit for tat tariffs start to happen things can and will get very expensive. This will drive decision-making and more and more people will pull back on spending, especially if it is months in the U.S.

The Granite Club Housing

The University of Winnipeg Housing Renewal people seem to be everywhere downtown. Some of it is the federal housing accelerator programs helping push their projects foreword but it is also having a diligent plan over many years. This has helped get their projects the funding they need to be completed. And they have finished quite a lot.

The Granite Club project has been in the news because the curlers have been nervous that they will lose 70% of their parking and that the club would suffer. Considering there is largely an empty parking lot for Canada Life next door evenings and weekends, it seems a solution could be arranged. Since the city owns both the club and the parking lot, it is in their interest to ensure the historic club can continue but somehow find housing solutions as well.

The Granite Club is a handsome building built in 1912 with a dedicated curling membership. The surrounding west parking lot is where the city wants to build an affordable rent apartment. The east lot is unaffected. The developer has offered 15 spots in their development and a long term financial incentive to the club. Nevertheless, the executive has said the loss of the lot is an existential threat.

The whole thing goes to a vote February 27. The executive of the curling will continue to push for parking agreements, funding as well as raising questions why the University of Winnipeg Housing Renewal Corp. didn't have to go through the request for proposal process. That appears to be based on the streamlining effort of the city to sale the eight city-owned sites and develop much needed housing.

The length of time it takes to get something built, the zoning, permit time, construction delays and the like often takes months if not years to get done. The federal accelerator fund has communities all over Canada in a race to get approvals because the Conservatives says they will cancel the popular program.

The apartment itself looks fine. Unlike so many designs of decades ago that were visually unappealing, this building doesn't look too bad. The neighbourhood has had issues with river encampments nearby but these are the first ones to be moved and set up for housing by the province. Wab Kinew has said that encampments will no longer be allowed to be set back up there again.

Manitoba, much like all of Canada, is behind in all types of housing. Affordable housing most of all. The 111 units of this apartment will have some market rate units, subsidized rent units and geared to income units. This formula has shown to work in ensuring residents feel invested in their place's well being.

In the next week or so, it will be interesting to see if something is worked out on this housing project. We have have had a few housing projects collapse in recent years and nothing ever done to re-start them.