It used to be in the 1960s and 1970s that snowbirds were people who spent 2 to 4 weeks in warmer climates over winter. Back then, a trip might be taken renting a cheap place in Florida. Many people drove to that state as it was rare to find direct or charter flights from a place like Winnipeg. And people wanted to have their cars with them.
Arizona was not really a snowbird destination until later in the 1980s and 1990s and continuing today. Palm Springs, California was generally for wealthier people. Texas has had snowbirds over the decades. Direct flights to any of those places wasn't exactly easy in early years. And now having a car in the U.S. was not exactly convenient.
Hawaii has had charters and connecting flights for nearly 50 years but it is unusual for stays to be nearly 6 months based on the expense. Flying, accommodation and transportation has limited the state compared to places like Florida and Arizona where someone might spend time there with an RV rather a condo or trailer.
Travel of any kind to the U.S. is often a reflection of the exchange rates, level of wealth within Canada and attractions. The Canadian dollar in the 1970s was near or above U.S. dollar for many years. It made vacation travel an easy decision. By the 1980s/1990s the dollar could easily change how many people went to the States. When the dollar was .63 to the U.S. currency some people limited their travel quite a bit. In recent years it has been about .70 and has slid to .69 with the growing tariff talk.
In some years it seemed like Canadians were headed down for vacation mixed with shopping every weekend while others were away for six months less a day every year. Some of the stores that shoppers flocked to are now in Canada as are some of the restaurants. Prices for items such as electronics are better in Canada as are car purchases. Still, entertainment such as Las Vegas or Nashville or climate like California or Arizona are hard to compete with.
Many seniors have had more money from rising real estate and from pension savings over the years. Living healthy and longer lives has meant more time for travel and the means to do it for longer. Seniors in the 1970s just didn't live decades past 65 as they do now and certainly didn't have the money to stay for six months in places like Florida. In recent years though it became very common and for the many to start at ages much earlier than 65.
Price has always been the thing that has limited Canadians visiting the U.S. Even during the difficult times like the Vietnam War, Canadian visited and stayed in U.S. because our personal relationship with Americans and the American people were too separate things. Now the relationship feels very personal. How personal? It means Canadians too close to Trump like Gretzky and Orr are now being shunned.
Things are changing in terms of where snowbirds seek to escape the cold and it isn't just because Trump was elected. Florida has been hit by repeated hurricane and tornado weather. Some find they are denied insurance or find their insurance has gone up steeply. One Canadian said their insurance had gone up from $4000 a year to $16,000. Healthcare costs are a concern too. As people get older, their insurance goes up for travel to the point that they can't afford to go down anymore. Also, you have to be healthy to travel and losing a partner often starts the process of selling a place you don't want to go to anymore. Florida has a more complicated and expensive process of even selling your property to your family compared to Arizona or California.
For Florida, all of these things are piling up. Health, insurance (both personal and property) and now politics has people from Canada selling. They are cancelling trips as well. It is shocking to Florida locals when they hear one of the reasons for selling or not coming is because of Trump and his tariff threats. Florida people have been befuddled that people are taking Trump seriously, including the 51st state taunts.
All of this has turned Florida into a state with falling real estate prices and empty houses. Not all of it is Canadians de-camping. However, after many disasters some people are just not able to rebuild after perhaps doing it before. In some cases, people can't get permits to rebuild in areas deemed unsafe. House prices are dropping all over the state and people are trying to sell before it gets worse.
Will it recover? Will Canadians flock back? It is possible. The insurance issues means between 15-20% of the population of property owners in Florida have no insurance. That doesn't bode well for the next weather issues that always come up in that state. And as Canadians owners in Florida get older, their health insurance also gets higher. This will be challenging in every year after 65 for most people. One health scare could boost insurance or have the insurance company require a return to Canada to get a health update every few months rather than have an emergency happen while spending time south of the border.
The next four years could be tough for Florida. Canadians have a huge impact on the economy there but politics, insurance, aging and other choices could see citizens choosing other places for warm holidays. The Canadian dollar could have the biggest impact of them all. If it slips lower, Canadians will look for places where it stretches more and that might not be the United States.
Canadian snowbirds will have choices to make. If tit for tat tariffs start to happen things can and will get very expensive. This will drive decision-making and more and more people will pull back on spending, especially if it is months in the U.S.
