Monday, October 3, 2011

Manitoba Election 6 Predictions



In the last election the NDP won a majority government with 36 seats won to the Progressive Conservatives 19 seats. The Liberals came away with 2.

In the terms of change, it was a 1 seat addition for the NDP and a triumph for the NDP. Little did anyone know that Gary Doer would not serve his entire term. Did anyone ask?

There was only one seat gained by the NDP but it affirmed the popularity support that Gary Doer had as leader of the NDP.

The difference for the PCs to unseat the NDP seems too great at this point to make a difference in ending NDP rule.

First, the Liberal predictions.

Jon Gerrard should should hold River Heights. It has been a tough fight but people appreciate his presence in the riding and in the legislature.

Kevin Lamouruex is gone to represent federally. But his people are working hard to gain Roldan Sevillano a seat.

Tyndall Park and River Heights will be gains.

Spirited campaigns by other Liberals will have difficultly breaking through.

Liberals Hold: 2 Seats.

The Progressive Conservatives will hold all their present seats or the proximity to the old boundaries. Hugh McFadyen and the PCs will make some gains.

The NDP made a wash with in St. Norbert. They screwed up the nomination and with no incumbent there, they are vulnerable. Gain for Karen Velthuys. Shocker will be if name recognition puts Marcel Laurendeau of the the Liberals there instead.

I think the NDP are vulnerable in a few places in western Manitoba. Brandon East will go PC. I think with Rosann Wowchuck in place, Swan River will go PC. I think Interlake will go PC.

In a shocker, re-distribution may deliver La Verendrye and the new Dawson Trail to the PCs.

Progressive Conservative Gain: 6 seat

That puts them at 25 in the Legislature.

The NDP drop to 30 in the Legislature.

NDP Lose: 6 seats

House split 30 NDP, 25 PCs and 2 Liberals.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

You had me interested til you said Brandon East would go PC...no one who has the slightest knowledge of the on-the-ground situation would say that.

It could happen, but I can't see it. Not sure what you base that on. (and no I'm not involved at all with the NDP campaign.)

John Dobbin said...

My feeling is that the candidate remains on the outside looking in for the party, the flood. I think a squeaker. I know the seat has remained NDP for 45 years but neglect of the western part of the province has run several years under the NDP.

kenmore63 said...

Am I the only one who thinks this election was a total bust? I watched the CBC leaders debate last night in hopes it would persuade me one way or the other. Now I'm more confused than ever. Is there nobody in this province with leadership skills? If these clowns are the cream of the crop, then we're in some serious trouble no matter who wins. Though, John, I believe that your prediction is probably pretty close to what's going to happen.

John Dobbin said...

I am going against 45 years of history in Brandon East but if there was ever a time it was vulnerable, it is now.

It really hurt that city not having cabinet representation at the table during the flood. And that doesn't look to change with the status quo. Also, the lack of care for western Manitoba seemed very pronounced this year.

The other ridings I have tried to get a sense. If the Liberal vote was higher, Tories gains might be made in south Winnipeg.

Reed Solomon said...

I gave the liberals a pity vote solely because the candidate seemed the most sincere in his answers on a website. Also Jon Gerard is the best of the "leaders"

John Dobbin said...

Well, I certainly thought the Tories would take St. Norbert after the contempt in the nomination process.

Thought if Brandon East didn't go this time, it never would. The new Dawson Trail won based on the candidate.

I don't what happened in Interlake. Figured the Tories would take that one based on the flood.

Increase in the percentage of the vote for the Tories but a terrible campaign. And the NDP showed that strong negative campaigning is the way to go.

Anonymous said...

Hate to say I toldja so...

Your comments about Brandon being neglected under the NDP were a bit strange, I thought. The city's had a lot of investment and the overall feeling here is that the city came through the disastrous flood in pretty good order.
(mainly due to a competent response from the city, but I digress)

The college development on the North Hill is huge. That alone would put the NDP above what the Tories ever did in 10 years here.
Development of the hospital is another major item, and the recent Cancer Care unit is going to make a difference.

Lots more housing being put up here, than ever was under the Tories (past or, what they promised this time out).

The only sure thing is that all the pundits seemed to have gotten it wrong this time out.

John Dobbin said...

Anon: Western Manitoba is still ill served by a dominant urban party. Brandon almost went under water due to terrible flood forecasting. This much is clear from independent observers on the matter.

I see more done by Brandon as a city with its own tenacity.

After that the last municipal election where the people turfed the lot, there seemed a hunger for something different.

The problem as you indicated is so much provincial spending and while low mortgages has created a housing boom, I don't see enough private investment coming very soon.

In the end though, there seemed a certain confidence that things were not nearly as bad and fear of the Progressive Conservatives was through the roof after a successful ad campaign.

I think having no cabinet representation at the table hurts Brandon. It is likely the only place in Canada where the second largest community in a province has no cabinet member. We'll see if that changes or not.

I predicted a NDP majority. Don't think I would have predicted an even bigger majority and I don't think anyone in the NDP thought so either.

One wonder now if we will see in Manitoba what they have in Alberta: one party in power for several decades.