Casual commentary about political, cultural and economic issues with a particular interest on the city of Winnipeg by John Dobbin
Monday, October 3, 2011
Manitoba Election 6 Predictions
In the last election the NDP won a majority government with 36 seats won to the Progressive Conservatives 19 seats. The Liberals came away with 2.
In the terms of change, it was a 1 seat addition for the NDP and a triumph for the NDP. Little did anyone know that Gary Doer would not serve his entire term. Did anyone ask?
There was only one seat gained by the NDP but it affirmed the popularity support that Gary Doer had as leader of the NDP.
The difference for the PCs to unseat the NDP seems too great at this point to make a difference in ending NDP rule.
First, the Liberal predictions.
Jon Gerrard should should hold River Heights. It has been a tough fight but people appreciate his presence in the riding and in the legislature.
Kevin Lamouruex is gone to represent federally. But his people are working hard to gain Roldan Sevillano a seat.
Tyndall Park and River Heights will be gains.
Spirited campaigns by other Liberals will have difficultly breaking through.
Liberals Hold: 2 Seats.
The Progressive Conservatives will hold all their present seats or the proximity to the old boundaries. Hugh McFadyen and the PCs will make some gains.
The NDP made a wash with in St. Norbert. They screwed up the nomination and with no incumbent there, they are vulnerable. Gain for Karen Velthuys. Shocker will be if name recognition puts Marcel Laurendeau of the the Liberals there instead.
I think the NDP are vulnerable in a few places in western Manitoba. Brandon East will go PC. I think with Rosann Wowchuck in place, Swan River will go PC. I think Interlake will go PC.
In a shocker, re-distribution may deliver La Verendrye and the new Dawson Trail to the PCs.