Felon Peter Navarro is a Fuckhead

Felon Peter Navarro is constantly threatening Canada. Sometimes in the past has had to walk it back but knows he can get pardons for his questionable and illegal behaviour. The man sings for his supper and boy does he sing.

In his latest fuckhead outburst, he says Canada will pay dearly for trying to speak to other elected officials to change minds in the America. He calls this election interference. This bullying, unhinged behaviour from this criminal receives less notice that almost anyone in the administration. He has an audience of one. Donald Trump. He has been pardoned once and is angling for another.

It is very probable that after the midterms, the exodus of Republicans who survive will accelerate. People like Navarro who have been there two terms will likely stay. He has no other use and only gets the occasional interview although much of the media ignores his stupid bombast.

It is no wonder that Carney is largely ignoring him and others. He actually laughs when questioned about the blowhards now. Better to wait till mid-term elections are done and see what Congress and some states are like after. We'll see have Trump to deal with but Congress might take back a lot of it's constitutional powers. It might not change things right away and there may be blowback as if we caused the problems.

The course of action is to continue to seek out trade partners and push through projects. The Trudeau era of slow walking or outright no responses just won't cut it if there is double digit unemployment. It was easier to do that when inflation was slow and employment high. That isn't the case now. Now, it is better just to infuriate Navarro by seeking out rational actors internationally.

Investment Canada Conference This Week

Call it speed dating for investment. The two day summit brings investment banks, pension and sovereign funds to look at prospectus lists of projects across Canada that the government has said they are looking to push through with fewer obstacles than have existed for about a decade. In the past year Canada has led foreign investment in the G7. Both Mark Carney and Stephen Harper will be in attendance for the event and giving speeches as well as meeting with delegates.

Unlike when Chretien, Martin and Harper led Team Canada business travels around the world to sell Canadian goods and seek out investment in places across Asia primarily, this is inviting the business rather than just the political meet ups where we might be just looking to open up the tourist doors or seek out international students. This is cash and investment in multi-year projects.

Every province and territory has selected projects that are high up on their priorities but can't just be funded by government money. It was only a few years past when German leaders came to Canada pretty much begging to invest in LNG to breakaway from Russian energy. Trudeau said nope. Said there wasn't a market for it and along with some in his cabinet, had the attitude of "keep it in the ground."

There were exceptions to this when private money dried up and anger boiled to the surface, especially in Alberta, that Trans-Mountain was built with federal government money. It hasn't quelled some in Alberta of anger but it is noteworthy that the pipeline to the coast brings in more money than the pipelines to the states. It is also worth commenting that it is the United States which has been the biggest obstacle to pipelines south over 12 years. Regardless, Canada was turning away investment or slow walking decisions that easily could run a decade or more.

It wasn't the only government doing this. Provincial and municipal governments literally stalled work on roads, highways, housing and hospitals. Things were literally falling apart and risk adverse governments and civil service often acted like this is just the way it was. Many had pet projects that came ahead of other crumbling infrastructure. In Winnipeg that would Kenaston and Peguis road expansion over sewer treatment. Every lower level government believed the federal fairy godmother would hand cash over so they could build new infrastructure.

To be sure the Feds have committed money to provinces and cities but they are pushing those governments to commit to bringing forward projects that outside investors will sign up for. In the case of Manitoba, that would be the Port of Churchill expansion. There is not an area of the province this wouldn't help. As for Winnipeg, the biggest areas for international investors have to be the airport and Centreport. Ottawa seems confident that some memorandums and announcements are coming in the next days. To be sure the Churchill investment might be the biggest of the bunch if it comes.

There have been some critics but it is getting harder to separate the cranks from legitimate critical thinkers. Not to mention who in the commentariat that actually be a paid disturber from third parties trying to sow discontent in society. Actual agents. In other words, people you might not be able to trust under any circumstances. During this investment conference, I will be looking to a variety of notable opinions. What I will be looking at is the creation of new businesses, investments in big projects and less takeovers by large corporations. We really don't need startups in Canada being folded up into the U.S. and literally shut down here. I also don't want to investment solely to try and enter the U.S. market as a back door for supply chain elsewhere. I'm also not interested in seeing a lithium mine here open where all the product is owned and shipped out of Canada.

It will be interesting to see what happens and in some cases, announcements may be pending in the days and months that follow. This isn't the only part of Canada's economy strategy. Canada has recruited academic stars, many from the U.S., who come to the country because of funding and freedom to do their work. Military and infrastructure projects abound. Most provinces have generational investments being planned or in progress. And a lot of cities of transportation and road and sewer projects. All of this can lead to bond investments. They can't all be done on taxes at once.

Some union and labour protestors will be present railing against capitalism. Some of them seem to forget that the car industry depends on investment. While some have legitimate concerns, the issue is they don't often bring any plans to the fore except government spending which is unsustainable. So often this turns into heavy taxation and state planning. It is notable that Wab Kinew is part of initiative with Carney to bring investment. There simply isn't enough tax money to do a project like Churchill without investment coming in.

It is probably good to take a measured approach to this conference. The merits of any announcements will be a good exercise in assessing the good overall or the bad as well. What shouldn't happen is outright dismissal or demands to see the entire details even before the day has started. That is just posturing and we are seeing a lot of that from lobbyists, influencers and those seeking to harm Canada.

Prepare for Crazy America

The tariffs retaliation go up at midnight Monday. Already this weekend Trump and his cabinet have been aggressively campaigning against Canada. Trump is panicking and throwing everything he has out there. By Tuesday he will be mad. As in furious and will probably suggest all manner of retaliation including invasion. We will hear a lot of 51st state. We will hear a lot of blaming of Canada that compare us to China.

As Labour Day toils on, Trump is busy with what he does best...golfing. Perhaps he will throw out some AI slop over the day. Most of his minions are taking the day off because Sunday is self promotion day on the Sunday political talk shows. The administration on them are putting their time in to get pardons when Trump leaves so they are not investigated for years after and possibly get charged. Seriously. The expectation is that blanket pardons might be requested for thousands. Worst case scenario is Trump dies early without those pardons and that JD Vance leaves them high and dry worrying thousands of pardons torpedo his run for the presidency as it did for Gerald Ford. Howard Lutnick, in particular, probably doesn't want to have to go under oath about certain files.

As for Canada, the tariffs are surgically placed to states that will influence what comes next following their elections. The tariffs are very unpopular as is the  name-calling and re-naming of Lake Ontario. Trump seems only interested in monument building and getting things named after him. It occupies a lit of his day. He hates that Canada just won't submit to U.S. control. It will be a tough couple of weeks coming but many Canadians are pissed right now.

Google Needs to Replaced in Canada

Donald Trump changes the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America and every government map using Google in Canada lists it as Lake America. Let's assume that he renames Toronto Trumptown and as soon as it becomes official Google will call it Trumptown even in Canada.

Google can't fix it because they are an American company. Any name Trump chooses for Canada becomes what we see when we use maps provided by Google. That is everyone in Canada. And herein lies the problem with American companies controlling our data.

Trump can disrupt all all of Canada by putting in hundreds of names changes in Canada and Google will comply. Many government departments in provincial and federal government are being hammered today because it is now Lake America. It is embarrassing and infuriating for many in Canada..

It exposes a vulnerability that reveals Trump can cripple our online mapping system and Google will be a willing agent. Can there be any doubt he is howling with laughter about this?

The federal and provincial governments might mitigate this by fining Google $1 million every day they allow this to happen. If their mapping system is so easily effed up by presidential decrees, it is an instrument of terrorism on the rest of the world.

As a matter of national security, Canada needs to take over mapping and Google's error has to be the motivation for this and other data being brought home. And it isn't just Google who can have Trump play in their data to cause world chaos. We have to separate ourselves from their systems lest this happen over and over again.

Fuck Trump on Trade

On Friday August 20, 2026, Mark Carney called the negotiation team home shortly before the deadline for 50% tariffs saying that last minute additions to the deal were just not acceptable. He gave a more detailed description of the problems the next day and said that medium to heavy duty trucks would be exempted from the deal. This ensured that Ford and GM would move those models to the U.S. over time. There was also items such as a veto over Canada trying to make trade deals with other countries. Not to mention issues regarding language and culture.

It was extortionist and according to Carney, was an effort to break Canadian sovereignty and unity. Some Conservative influencers and MPs are blaming Carney such as Jamil Jivani. When asked about Poilievre's response to the end of talks, Jivani was unreachable. A flurry of conservative posters were smug that Canada pulled out and were pro-American in their discourse basically saying it is all Carney's fault. A former top Conservative writing in the Free Press has called out the trolling and says it has harmed Poilievre more than Carney.

Danielle Smith in Alberta supports Carney but seems to want his desperately back at the table lest Trump focuses on tax on oil. She wants no response from Canada despite the late additional demands from the U.S. Scott Moe, on the other hand, support dollar for dollar retaliation. Smith seems brave enough on announcing separation votes but seems to know a lot of her supporter back Trump and his agenda. Quebec, meanwhile, seems terrified of bringing up a separation vote because of Trump. This would seem to suggest Quebecers back Carney and would not take kindly to such a vote.

Carney has called it a war and it is starting to feel like one. Sadly, the public feels more triggered than usual and booing of the U.S. anthem from coast to coast is an indication. In some ways, the public is way ahead of the government. The best strategy for Carney is to reveal as much about the state of the talks and why they collapsed. He needs to brief the other leaders in the Commons. The full text of the agreement doesn't necessarily need to revealed because that might have changed dozens if not more times. To be fair, it could undermine talks if they resume at some point if it exposes the negotiating position of Canada. The media would just publish it carte blanche but very much like a labour talk, you don't want it out in public and just torpedo something getting done. And some people's goal is to torpedo the talks. Some of those people might be third party outsiders wanting to sow strife.

Still, the government has to let people know about the nuts and bolts about the deal and demonstrate how it can affect sovereignty. If Canada can't make deal elsewhere, we are trapped discounting to supply the American market. No government could agree to that. The U.S. government has not denied making that a demand.

Carney has to ensure those hurt by the U.S. tariffs in Canada are taken care of. And the countervailing duties have to placed on U.S. industry to cause Canadians least amount of pain and maximum pain in the U.S. ahead of the mid-term elections. The cowardice of the the Republican party should receive a full out hit. Trump now proposes a 50% tariff starting January on automotive industry. This would end the auto industry in Canada and put enormous costs on American taxpayers. Canada won't be able to buy the products solely made in the U.S. even without tariffs. The price is already soaring.

Ford and Trump have been exchanging potshots. Carney has said said what he has had to say. Democrat and state leaders have expressed alarm and blasted Trump. There is a lot of support out there for Canada but summer brain affects both countries and it will only be after Labour Day that people start to realize that the economy as it relates to affordability is not good. There will be an increasingly panicked Republican party who will try to blame anyone else for the circumstances such as Biden, Canada, Iran or China among others. 

 It is very possible some Republican voters will be less compelled to vote for Republican slate candidate when Trump is not in ballot. In fact, Trump's popularity is dragging down the party. As a lameduck president who by law can't run again, Trump should see more Republicans leave the administration over the next months to forge new paths. Most will stay friendly to get blanket pardons. Yes, it could be that bad. Many will want to keep their money that would otherwise be scrutinized.

Democrats and Independents will be motivated voters. Not all will be favour free trade. Biden didn't lift many of the trade problems Trump created in the first four years so it is possible we still will have irritants. Canada can't expect all will be well in two years. Expanding our markets to other countries has to be a goal. We have been selling our wares to the U.S. for discount prices because of weak dollar for too long.

There is also a lot of cowardice from other countries who have bad trade deals but don't say anything. Some of those countries may get even worse treatment in the next while so it will be interesting to see if they accept this. If Trump actually tries a third attempt at running, it could fracture the U.S., especially if the Supreme Courts says go ahead. The chaos south of the border could be something after the mid-terms.

This is all Trump and fuck him. The anger is spreading and his antics and bullying are going to have to be dealt with. Canadians need to look support our own people for their quite some time.

Tariff Retaliation by Canada 2026

Trump doesn't work weekends. He is generally golfing. Biden didn't work weekends either. World crisis have to wait till Monday. While Canadian negotiators remained in Washington many politicians in America were gathering support for the upcoming mid-term elections inn their home turf. Some, including Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative were in Iowa for the State Fair.

The Iowa State Fair is like the Calgary Stampede for the American political class. It is also an event that Canadian companies attend to promote trade. Canada is Iowa's largest trading partner and many farmers in the area are spooked by the possibility of losing that trade. Interviews with farmers show they know very little about the dispute aside from that it could hurt them. Most point to the dairy as being an issue but seem unclear if it because we are exporting into their market for milk with no reciprocity. The answer of course is no.

Many Canadian officials were at the Iowa State Fair and we'll have to send many more out over the days and weeks to talk to elected officials and industry. The level of cowardice among Republicans is such that they seem ready to lose the mid-terms rather than confront Donald Trump. Lest anyone think the Democrats are out friends, think again. But it seems more likely they will be predictable and more like to keep CUSMA. Don't expect any deals on softwood lumber.

And with no meaningful reduction of sectoral tariffs, the provinces are not inclined to put booze back on the shelf. Even in provinces that have put booze on the shelf, there is a 40% reduction in sales, particularly on wine. Ontario removing alcohol has been a proper punch in the balls for their industry. There has been a steady stream of executives begging for Trump to do something when brought the 50% tariff. However, it was the sectoral tariff that brought about the booze ban and reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. seems to still blink in surprise that Canada responded.

From what little disclosure we have gotten, it will likely come down to a talk between Carney and Trump. No deal is probably better than a bad deal. If the 50% tariffs are put in place by Trump on Wednesday, Carney says he has a response. It will hurt small business this time.

The Toronto Sun columnist Brian Lilley Conservative Party supporter has blamed Carney for trading with China for the issues. It is such a load of crap since the U.S. is looking to do their own trade deal in a few weeks. And the trade deal was to get Canadian farm goods from Canada back on Chinese shelves. In essence, Lilley wants Canadian farmers to suffer. Sometimes it is hard to take the American owned newspaper seriously.

In the end if Trump chickens out, the stopwatch starts again. In the meantime, no booze on the shelves.

Fuck Trump on Trade

The constant bullying and gaslighting of Canada by the U.S. on trade is relentless. Their trade negotiators tell Canada that they have to settle for second best, limit our trade with others and only trade with the U.S.

The free trade agreements made over decades was to supply chains crossed the border and that rules would make sense from a prosperity standpoint. CUSMA trade is nearly completely tariff free. Only a few areas like culture, dairy are set aside for specific reasons of ensuring support for farmers and culture industries. We have already backed down on policy a few times on culture legislation. On dairy, it is unclear what talks have taken place.

What is clear from the premiers meeting with the prime minister in PEI is that most premiers are not backing down on alcohol on the shelves. But don't expect much help from Saskatchewan and Alberta. They keep alcohol on the shelf and don't want any interference on potash and energy. They have agreed to direct to consumer sales within Canada this week which is a huge deal for Canadian beer and spirits. This is a big deal in bringing freer trade to the provinces which could increase gross domestic product internally. The longer U.S. liquor is off the shelf, the more it is changing consumption habits. It is for sure making the U.S. crazy about liquor off the shelf. They seem completely puzzled by it.

Trade negotiators in the U.S. seem shocked we just won't accept a permanent tariff on everything and that we are obedient and compliant. And because we have tried to remove some irritant, they likely think they can have it all and even more. The Canadian public is even more incensed and want to fight so premiers are actually holding them back from even more. I think the realization is that Trump is the unpredictable one. Still, you often hear Moe and Smith say that Carney has to get a deal but wont saw what concessions should be made. Just not any in their provinces.

Greer, Bessant, Lutnick and Hoekstra are all bootlickers for Trump. Perhaps they believe in or merely looking to get a pardon when their time is up for something. I seriously believe the desire for pardons is what guides many of the people who work for the administration. So fuck them now and later on. They should be ashamed in years after even if they avoid criminal charges.

Greer spoke before Congress and there is an even longer list coming. He wants bilateral deals that protect the U.S. on cheap energy and minerals but that's it. Expect huge tariffs on everything else. A number of the Senators put the pressure on but Republican Senators have no balls. Peter Navarro goes on the pages of the National Post with absolutely no rebuttal to his bullocks argument that it is Canada's fault.

If Canada does get hit with tariffs it sure seems like there will be a reply in kind. The two provinces that are allowing U.S. liquor sales will likely find a 50% tariff on bourbon and wine in those provinces. They can continue to buy but will there be consumers in the market? Is having a bourbon in Calgary worth paying 50% more? I guess some people will pay that price but many won't. There is already evidence that people are moving away from American wine even when available.

The latest indignity is a 10% tariff on Canada starting July 24 for forced labour. It is a catch all for 80 countries. There is no way to satisfy Trump on this even with the same law as they have. The U.S. exempts themselves from prison labour. Some countries like the UK will get a worse deal than they had previously with Trump. One wonders if they will take it lying down. Norway has said they will. If they are prepared to to take that, maybe they can give up some more too.

So Canada has to cobble together trade deals elsewhere. This week it was free trade with Ecuador. There always seems to be complaints about most deals and this is no different. Ecuador is not what many want in terms of human rights. Many advocates say Canada should not have trade with most of the world till human rights and environmental issues are settled. Conversely, we are asked for aid and criticized when that doesn't come. The balance is a difficult one but don't know bans or tariffs helps on banana and cocoa from Ecuador and airplanes from Canada. If we want to promote world peace, we have to keep talking, trading and finding common ground.

There are sometimes reasons for sanctions and tariffs but not for the reasons Trump has. Anti-dumping is a tariff for those countries that are dumping product that they are overbuilding in their territory so that they can undercut another country. It is anticompetitive practice. Tariffs can be used for national security reasons too. In general though, a tariff should be regarded as a tax on yourself and if kept in place can keep your home industry out of date and unproductive. It seems a dumb thing to keep taxing.

Trumps tariffs are to bully Canada. We should take him at his word he believe Canada is about to totter and become a U.S. territory. Fuck him on that idea. Many Canadians are horrified at the chaos down in the U.S. and want nothing to do with being strip mined. We really don't Target stores back in Canada that bad. In the mean time, we should remain calm and carry on. In the last week alone, free trade agreements with Ecuador and United Arab Emirates. There is a huge investment conference in Canada coming in September. We really need an internal response to to overcome what is happening down in the States and for the next two and half years.

Tree Wars

The first thing civic government's like to cut is the budget on tree planting, pruning or anything to do with trees. They are not the only government. Mark Carney might have cut too much so far but he cut the tree planting program as a carbon capture policy. At the vest least the program could help replenish the tree lost to forest fires in the last decades. The unsung heroes are the young tree planters out there. It is like a calling.

Most time tree budgets get cut and there is no publicity. This time $1.2 million on forestry in Winnipeg was to be diverted to Journey to Churchill to cover a shortfall by orders of the province. It outraged so many. And with an election this year, the turnaround came fast.

Four city councillors are not running again and the last thing they want to do before they leave is to torpedo for an entire year, trees being planted or pruned. Households and schools have embraced tree planting all over the city. The heat dome we are presently experiencing is much worse when you are out on the bald prairie. The heat in some new suburbs is merciless. The trees there are just not high enough to even count.

The canopy trees Winnipeg has are amazing. The city from his origins were bereft of these trees although some seem to have nostalgia for those. Every street in Winnipeg has trees that are recorded in a registry. The kind of tree is listed. And those trees were all planted by us. It appears that residents of the city are no longer satisfied with the city being denuded and then waiting years for a tree to be planted. 

Because this is an election year, councillors and mayor races are deeply influenced by moves like cutting down trees. There will be new councillors no matter what happens this election. Some of them will advocate for a billion to expand Peguis and Kenaston. Where that money comes from in uncertain. The hope is that the federal fairy godmother will pay for the work. It is unlikely. They might pay for sewers but not so that the city can pay for superhighways while cutting spending on parks and recreation.

This is early rounds for trees. With this dreadful heat, it is easy why we need the trees, least of of all for shade.

Sun Publisher Meets U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra

Heather Klein, Pete Hoekstra and Kevin Klein attend 4th of July party at Ambassador's residence 2026.

In an opinion piece Kevin Klein says he accepted an invitation from U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra for the Independence Day ceremony at the ambassador's residence in Ottawa. Around 200 people were there, including Convoy leader, Tamara Lich. A fly by of CF-18s and F-35s took place.

Klein says the mainstream media makes out the Hoekstra is making a villain of the ambassador. He says he is a hard working diplomat and Carney is to blame. This puts Klein on far opposite of his own Conservative operators who are livid with the gaslighting by Hoekstra on the Gordie Howe Bridge when he said Canada has not really paid for it. Many Stephen Harper officials who were in the room are thoroughly disgusted. Not one of them blamed Carney for this as this a shakedown 101.

Now Klein has managed to save the Winnipeg Sun and other newspapers from certain closure and has a right to publish whatever he wants. It is right to believe that if only there was a Conservative in power, all would be well over the last 10 years and we'd never have a trade issue with the U.S. or Trump. He can believe that but no county has been unscathed in Trump's second administration. The only safety we've had in a trade agreement signed when Justin Trudeau was prime minister. 

Klein said he asked many of the 250 business leaders in attendance and they said Carney doesn't engage them. He said Hoekstra engaged them. Of the under 1000 in attendance, there are certain to be a number of businesses that are not happy with Carney. Conservatives should keep in mind that these past 4th parties used to attract 4000 people. Many businesses felt they could do better attending the Calgary Stampede. So did many politicians. Some are so furious about the bridge in Ontario, they hold Hoekstra accountable directly. The former Michigan Congressman received donations from the Ambassador Bridge owners and there seems to be a direct link to closure of the Gordie Howe Bridge.

Now Klein accepting the invitation to the party could be explained as seeking information on a major issue. But where is the accountability? Does Klein contend that it is all Carney's fault that there is no deal and the bridge is closed? It seems that is what his newspaper claims every day. The Sun writers seem to think that all we do is irritate the U.S. and it would be so easy to get a deal. 

Canadian irritation right back is not merely driven by media in Canada. It is actually greater than the Carney government. People in the country recognize the bullying and even some of the biggest conservatives are fighting mad. For some other Conservatives, they are far more supportive of Trump and even like his kind of politics. There is a fair movement in Canada that are not just separatists but angling for 51st state status.

Conservative media will have to dance on the head of a pin with separation in next months. They would continue to to like to berate the federal government. In many cases they are upset with conservatives elsewhere too. In Manitoba, that is translating into a new party. Since one of the owners Wally Daudrich is running in The Pas for the Keystone Party. It remains to be see whether The Sun endorses him and the party.

Pete Hoekstra is not helpful navigating the next moves Canada will take. He mirrors what Trump says gaslights us when we bristle at being told we need to be 51st state. The gaslighting continues when we are told we didn't pay for the Gordie Howe Bridge. Conservative media agreeing it is all the Liberals fault and Carney in particular only beggars disbelief and raises Carney's popularity. 

I appreciate Klein's purchase of The Sun. We need two newspapers in this town. They don't have to be identical. It is better that they aren't. But we need Team Canada when it comes to the U.S. whether in sport or politics. There is nothing wrong with going to the ambassador's fete. Coming out of it and saying he is doing yeoman's work and he is listening while Carney isn't is not helpful. What might have been helpful is finding out what truly was holding up the bridge opening. Do we really have to give envelopes of cash to the main players? Is it a warning we need to capitulate on everything, accept tariffs, the end of dairy, egg, chicken and cheese industry, our auto industry, buy only American equipment for military, join the U.S. in a fight in Iran, end newspaper and cultural supports, get approval for anyone we trade with, send oil only to the U.S. at a discount and any other things that might result in a deal that Trump changes month to month? This is the work of a diplomat? And this is all Carney's fault?

Six British Prime Ministers in Seven Years

It seems difficult to think of Britain as a stable place when yet another prime minister resigns two years into their government. Sir Keir Starmer joins a growing list of prime ministers who could not govern. The Labour leader was thought to be a tonic to the chaos of the Conservatives who were still reeling in the aftermath of Covid as well Brexit. The British economy has not been the same since breaking with the European Union.

Britain has had a long history of Game of Thrones tussles. The Reform Party, who are growing in elected members, are peeling off people who feel displaced and are motivated by that. It has led to boisterous protests. There has been violence at times. In Canada, governing parties usually get two tern between 8 to 10 years in length before they run out of steam. This applies to both provinces and federal governments. It is rare to get a third term. Only the exceptional campaigner and popular politician can do it. It also helps to have a weak and embattled opposition.

Starmer had a landslide two years ago only to score on his own goal repeatedly. Picking an ambassador to the U.S. linked to Epstein as well as financial shenanigans likely took him down in the polls in trust. Having Trump in office and the prickly relationship hurt Starmer in a way it didn't hurt Trudeau or Carney.

In the months after Trump was re-elected, support for Trudeau actually went up. However, the die was cast and his own Liberal party, was looking to someone who might be able to get a deal with the U.S. or at the least, have a plan to broaden the economy. To that end, the Liberals turned to Mark Carney and his support has not been this high for a leader in many a year.

I think the economy following Brexit and Covid has dragged Britain down quite a bit. In Canada, the reaction to the convoy of protestors was more negative towards them than supportive. There were a variety of parties in power at the provincial level when Covid hit. It is hard blaming any one of them without hurting your own party. Ontario has the same Premier Doug Ford because he seems to know how to navigate the tough times and has collaborated with the federal government to the benefit of his province.

What hurt Starmer was probably not making decisive actions early and the ones he did have haunted him like the ambassadorship. The staff in his office were very much needed to vette appointments, manage the party and set up a vision that was achievable and could help the people who had given them a mandate. The resignation today of Starmer is an awful result for a party 14 years out of office. The victory they had two years ago was the biggest win for Labour in decades.

Starmer ought to have known to avoid some of the pitfalls ahead of him. Free event tickets are never really free and the very active media are going to always ask how you got then. Starmer and his ministers ought to have known on free Taylor Swift tickets. Or free glasses or clothes or whatever. None of those things by themselves defeat you. It is the accumulation. And the appointing of an ambassador with such questionable ties. 

I think what made his own party mad enough was not picking a direction and committing to it. He didn't make the case for cuts to in budget to leverage an economic jump, he didn't look to reform tax across the board, he didn't look at defence needs or establish a response to growing Russian threats. Instead, he and his party reacted slowly and befuddled to crime stories, suffering and stagnant economy stories and in total confusion to Trump. It isn't like Carney hasn't had problems like this in Canada. However, he has acted quickly and on things like defence whereas Trudeau said Canada would never reach 2% of GDP on spending even though it has committed to it. Likewise, Trudeau committed to carbon pricing without it showing it brought down emissions or was able to meet Canada's energy needs.

As mentioned previously here, Canada doesn't have an age problem in politics like many nations. We generally have a time limit in our heads of two terms. An exceptional leader or political party that renew itself can extend that time. The Liberals did this by changing leaders and shifting. The Canadian public showed a willingness to do this. And the Liberals won an election and later a majority as a result. Perhaps Carney trips up and faces the same timeline as Starmer for popularity.

Canadian can only look on in shock at the revolving door at the Game of Thrones in the UK. We just don't have this type of turnover. And while we could have two provinces vote on separation, there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for it if the polls are to be believed. In some ways, there has been more unity than we have seen in some time. Part of it is as a result of Trump, some is sport such as World Cup and Olympics and some could be a sense of common purpose.

A leader appears to be in waiting in Britain. Perhaps that helps Labour find a direction without heading to an election. The biggest momentum in recent years has been Reform Party which seems committed to a rupture in the status quo. It remains to be seen whether the UK really wants that. Perhaps this summer the country will finally find the stability it has lacked for years. 

Canada About to Increase Fighter Purchase to Two Different Fighters

Be careful when military sources say that certain military purchases are not what some in military want. There is a strong chance that they are paid lobbyists or hope to be be paid lobbyists of chosen companies. To that end, military people will make specifications exactly matching Boeing, General Dynamics and a host of U.S. supplier. They will encourage complete integration and training with U.S. to the point that policies match. In other words, self serving in that they get a commission for setting the table for billions in military bids.

Not all military are like that. But fair to be concerned that when billions will be added to military budgets, you will find yourself buying $250 hammers. Ronald Reagan's people found that out when they plowed money into new equipment. It is discouraging and causes people to lose faith. In 2003, there will military advisers saying Canada should go to war despite our own intelligence questioning weapons of mass destruction. 

Stephen Harper took out a full page ad in the U.S. saying Canada should be fighting. Funny, how Poilievre today doesn't talk about this finest moment of his party. We really do need to do our own due diligence. Britain has still not full recovered from this breech of trust for their involvement in Iraq. They have literally eaten up prime ministers and invited chaos in the years since.

Over 50 countries operate more than one category of fighter jet aircraft. If you listen to critics in Canada, the consensus is that Canada should buy more F-35s if the budget is there for it. Remember again these same people are often paid lobbyists. The truth is that the F-35 is the most expensive option on the table. If Canada wants another option for NATO and other work, the Gripen from Sweden offers both a cheaper option as well as an industrial program for Canada.

The sole-sourced aircraft that Canada recently purchased (Poseidon) was uncompetitive. The military assured that no other choice, timetable or price was better. They said this is the one we wanted. No other choice will do. We are the experts. Trust us. But how can when the system is so gamed and when so many former military lobbyists get handsomely paid? This happens so routinely in every country that you come to realize what Eisenhower meant when he talked about the military-industrial complex. He didn't trust their motivations and desire for money.

On the other side of the equation is politics and economics. Some politicians are okay with military contracts so long as they help their communities. They don't care about the cost to taxpayer or if the equipment is on time or even the right equipment. Just as long as money is spent in their area. Safe to say that only a few provinces benefit from the bulk of spending on ship construction.

The reason some countries build their own weapons is because they sometimes find that other countries won't sell them what they want or need. Case in point is Israel and Ukraine. Each of those countries created industries to build them weapons when other countries refused to sell to them. However, some military equipment takes too long to develop and too much to build. Submarines fall in that category. Canada has generally bought submarines from nations that build them. However, the U.S. has vetoed some of our choices if they involved technology the Americans didn't want us to have or threatened their traditional dominance. This is the case of when we tried to buy nuclear submarines in 1987.

The F35 jets make Canada even more dependent on the U.S. and they still are not offering the best version of the aircraft there is. We have been part of the process of building the jet for 30 years and the Harper government attempted to sole-source the purchase with no details. It was widely rejected by the public. Even when it was cancelled in favour of a new bidding process, the military procurement refused to hear from other bidders. Sometimes it was hard to tell who the military and Conservative staffers were. Military were paid to lobby for the F35. The whole thing is a fiasco.

The military basically uses the specifications of the F35 as the basis of their choice. It is an excellent aircraft but sole-sourcing it and then taking money to lobby and as a commission means taking the taxpayer for granted and self enrichment. The relaxed attitude about sovereignty threats from the United States causes some worry. This isn't an idle statement considering the arrests of Canadian military in Quebec recently who looked to overthrow the government. The push to buy 40 or 50 more F35s after the initial 88 has to be questioned.

So here are the facts. The Canadian government has invested a lot of time and money into the F35. However, the aircraft is very dependent on the U.S. for servers, updates and training as well as parts. Any or all could be under threat when not based in Canada. The CF18s had a substantial repair and update contracts in Canada. The F35s require heavy American involvement on a regular basis. The "we are friends" argument feels a lot more hollow when we are fighting all the time to get our goods like aluminum and steel in the market and are called a security threat.

The F35 is like a Ferrari. It is very expensive to operate. Not surprisingly, many Ferrari owners have another car to do things like ship at IKEA. Canada could probably use another aircraft to do that. It isn't the first time we have used other aircraft either. Back in the 50 years ago, we updated our fighters and used older fighters for other tasks until they were retired. If more than 50 other countries do it, why can't Canada? And why is there horror that it is impossible for use to do and that we should go and buy more F35s? Oh, and untendered too.

It now seems highly probable that Canada will likely get most of the F35 order and then put in an additional order for Saab Gripens as part of a NATO industrial strategy. According to the Globe and Mail, the Canadian government is looking to go with two fights with Lockheed-Martin and Saab. How many jets? Well, to put it into perspective, Canada has generally ordered just under 140 fighters at a time delivered over years. The F35s Canada has ordered is 88. To put that in perspective, the UK ordered 60. Australia ordered 72. Japan has an order of 147.

Canada has one of the most significant orders for the F35 in the world. It is one reason the U.S. is angry we have not committed to buying them right away. Keep in mind that the U.S. has treated Australia like crap even after they have taken possession of all 72 aircraft. And you have to wonder if they ever get their nuclear submarines when the U.S. can't even produce enough themselves.

Expanding who Canada buys its military equipment from makes sense given the fact that the U.S. is so unreliable. As much as we can, we should buy in Canada and use Canadian steel and Canadian aluminum. Having American companies complain when we don't use their steel and aluminum is rich. We have a lot of ships and with U.S. steel tariffs, it makes sense we use what we have in Canada.

Most NATO countries predict that by 2029, Russia will be in a position to move against a member country. Most intelligence reports indicate it is the Baltic area that faces the biggest danger. Canada has thousands of military people in Latvia and there have already been Russian incursions into the territory. Unlike the present U.S., Canada seems more committed to NATO than any time in the past decades. At one point prior to the Berlin Wall coming down, Canada had up to four squadrons of fighters based in Germany.

A decision is likely coming soon. It isn't likely before July 1 as the trade deal reaches a new phase at that point. So far any concessions have been met with no quid pro quo. Announcing a purchase of 140 F35s might gain nothing and still have the U.S. demanding more. Why not add to your industrial base and ally with NATO friends. Create an export market for Ukraine to have fighters. Have an aircraft that is not the sports car you have to take out for the regular work. The United States under normal circumstances shouldn't care what NATO aircraft that Canada buys. At some point Canada will make a decision. It seems weird that the purchase might be linked to the Gordie Howe Bridge but we exist in strange times.

Royce Koop Seeking Conservative Nomination in Winnipeg South Centre

 

University of Manitoba professor and Winnipeg Sun columnist has indicated he will be seeking the nomination for the Conservatives for Winnipeg South Centre. The riding is presently held by the Liberal under Ben Carr, son of the last Jim Carr, former MLA and MP from the area. Carr was recently re-elected in 2025. The riding has been one of the most consistent federal Liberal riding for nearly five decades. The next election is, at best, three years away now the Mark Carney has a majority.

By all accounts, Koop has been a well liked professor at University of Manitoba. He has degrees from all over Canada and has taught at many Canadian  universities. When he wrote at the Free Press, there was insightful analysis. His columns in The Sun and sometimes National Post are all opinion pieces. His focus pretty much all the time is the Liberal party and why it is bad for Canada. He also writes for the conservative digital news service call The Hub. Just this week, Conrad Black, a frequent contributor said Trump is a good president and his name in the Epstein Files is irrelevant.

Koop is known as a fairly partisan conservative. His Sun columns and podcasts with Kevin Klein have been focused against the NDP in Manitoba and the Liberals in Ottawa. As an academic he is well aware of the micro and macro of the political economy. He knows how the Westminster system works. He is well aware of the ideology of every political party in the country. Knowing all this, his political opinion of things overlooks the failures of his own party and focuses on the failures of the other guys.

It it is unclear if there is competition for the nomination for the federal riding. The last candidate for the Conservatives in the riding was Royden Brosseau, an engineer and businessman, who hasn't indicated that they will run again. Joyce Bateman won for the Tories in 2011 but lost to Jim Carr the following election. It has been a very Liberal since the 1980s even through many Conservative governments.

The Conservatives have felt this riding, with a mix of wealth and high education, has been ripe for the plucking for decades but have continually come up short. And by a long ways most of the time. And some of the right who campaigned in the riding have often shown a level of racism and anti-Semitism dating back to the Reform party. Given the  Jewish strength in the riding, conservatives often think they take the the seat. But that assumes a monolithic viewpoint of Jewish Canadian votes. It dismisses Jewish roots in a spectrum of views rather than single issue politics.

Royce Koop will likely face challengers for the nomination which is might might fight off being more right of center. He will then have to show the riding he can represent all the people that live there. There are many government workers, artists and small business people who live in the riding. Many will be ever alert to threats to health, education and and areas they feel passionate about.

The lesson learned from Pierre Poilievre's defeat in his own riding is that many people in the Ottawa area were afraid of slash and burn policies that could affect their jobs and workplaces. It is possible that if Trudeau had still been in power in 2025 in the election, even Winnipeg South Centre would have turned blue. However, the Liberals turned to Carney and the Trump changed the election into an existential threat. That threat still hangs over Canada.

I suppose the benefit of Koop getting the nomination early is that he can get a feel of the riding. You can bet they will be reading his columns, watching podcasts and so will his opposition. If Carney nose dives in the polls, it is possible this seat can turn over. But it is likely it will only be a narrow window and the community will be watching like hawks the whole time.

Loudmouth Lutnick

Howard Lutnick is a billionaire who routinely mouths off about Canada in his Trump role as Commerce Secretary. He and Jamieson Greer, the trade representative are sold on tariffs and manufacturing in the U.S. and this approach has been for every country in the world. Some countries rushed to make deals only to find Trump changes the deals.

Both Lutnick and Greerson have pretty much said the deal Canada must accept is that their auto manufacturing must move to the U.S. and that we buy cars from America and no where else. This, and pretty much every other industry, are to move to the U.S. and we buy from them or risk punishment. There is absolute fury in the administration that Canada went to China and made a deal to end the ban canola and other ag products and quota for EV automobiles in Canada. Strangely enough, Trump is going to China soon. How will his deal be different than Canada's?

Lutnick might be trying to impress Trump now so he can get a pardon later for behavior kinked to Epstein. This isn't just an idle observation. He seems to only disclose when under oath and Congress is about to question him again. It often seems that most of the cabinet and political appointees perform for an audience of one. It is all about Trump.

Canada had not risen to the debate as it might once have done. The U.S, seems to want to scare Canada into a deal while stripping out our tech and manufacturing industry at the same. The U.S. negotiating team seems bewildered why we don't jump at such a bad deal. Or ask to become a state in the U.S.

The mid-term elections in the U.S. this November likely mean change is coming for both elected officials and administration. The loss of the House of Representatives, and possibly, the Senate. It is the Congress that makes trade deals. It seems very likely that Canada just has to wait till January 2027 for when the newly elected members are sworn in.

There is usually changes in cabinet and other appointees as well. We have seen Trump fire a few cabinet secretaries and more may be on the way. Some will quit before getting fired while others will quit to get media jobs, lobbyist jobs or to run for office themselves. The last two years of a presidency is called the lame duck part of the term. It is when even the President's party is not likely to pass the agenda if it means a possibility of them not winning or moving on to another office in the next election.

The possibility of the president running a third term is remote because of two term limits. Any attempt to bypass that is likely to be struck down at every level of the courts. The Supreme Court knows that if they strike down term limits for Trump, it could result in multiple terms for other presidents, including Democrats.

The term limits work to Canada's advantage because tariffs are not likely to be as much on the agenda of any future U.S. president. It could be why the U.S. negotiating team is putting a rush on talks. They want to lock in terms favourable to them. The U.S. is particularly focused on pharmaceutical and online companies. They may have dropped bringing up supply management in things like dairy. It is possible that they fear Canada might bring up U.S. subsidies in ag and manufacturing.

Pierre Poilievre has been needling Carney that he has done nothing to make a deal and insists it is achievable if he was the prime minister. Interestingly, he doesn't reveal what compromises he would make that would be a win-win for both countries. He simply won't be PM if he throws supply management or pharmaceuticals to the Americans. And that is just to start.

Some of the U.S. demands are just being revealed. They want Canada to accept tariffs but also any attempt to diversify our economy from the U.S. or any regulation of our own economy. The fact that free trade exists at a level that is near complete in North America is not acceptable. They want free trade for U.S. into Canada while Canada pay high tariffs.

Lutnick says Canada delaying sucks and won't work but the truth is that he will likely not have his job soon enough. He will either quit or be fired soon. His appearance in future Congressional Epstein hearings in next days. The rush to submit to the U.S. in the negotiations is just not in Canada's interest. And despite what Poilievre says, Canada is not delaying. We just won't pay upfront costs anymore when the U.S. never gives anything back. Not will we accept the insults and threats of annxation.

Lowering Gas Tax

The continuing war has led to the new majority government of Mark Carney to lower the excise tax on gas 10 cents. For diesel and aviation fuel the drop is 4 cents In the next days and week, summer fuel comes on the market and it costs an additional fivc cents a litre.  And there is no telling how long the war continues. Even if oil begins to flow, resumption of pre-war prices is forecast not to happen this year and maybe never.

There is a lot of cynicism. Some are saying that the money should be used for other things to make life affordable. It is about $2.5 billion that is out of government coffers. The suggestion is that the money could be used to pay for 10,000 nurse for an entire year. If only that would end the nurse shortages. As with most things, it is very complicated.

With gas 40 cents higher than a year ago, some people asked to comment on media were begging government to somehow get it lowered back to that. Covid, global recessions and market manipulations have dropped gas prices way low from time to time. But what have we learned? Not much. It is when people buy the biggest vehicles. However, they can run into sticker shock if gas goes high which happens fairly often. Unlike the housing market, there are no guardrails against gas shooting through the roof. 

The war in the Middle East is outside Canada's control. What Canada can control is access to some critical supplies like helium where 30% is supplied by Qatar. Even before this there has been a shortage of this element that is central in things like MRI machines. Perhaps the private sector will take up the cause and invest here. There is a role for government in this.

As for reserves that other countries have such as the U.S., Canada has never needed since we are a net exporter. The price though is set worldwide. It doesn't matter if we have enough supply for ourselves. And we are not Venezuela or Saudi Arabia that subsidize fuel prices for locals. And where countries have subsidized, it hasn't helped their economies.

Reducing tax as a inflation relief strategy has to be measured against how much government revenue is lost versus how much costs of living. And once you reduce tax, the very act of doing show can in itself cause inflation. It is a balancing act. Most industries will all beg for tax relief while as the same time say the roads are terrible. Well, government revenue is required for infrastructure. 

The war has been a shock to the system so a temporary measure to help is understandable. The excise tax of 10 cents has been frozen since 1995. Adjusted for inflation, it should be 17 cents now. An argument for tax reform can be made, especially transparency and fairness. But some people, often richer, think taxes are only for the poor. No one likes taxes but they are a dense collection of fees that are confusing even to accountants.

The ceasefires in the Middle East usually have the same result every time. Civilians rush back to the smashed homes and re-build as do belligerents for the next wave of attacks. The incentive to actually resolve the problems is never really there. It seems for some, the war is a chance to shore up political support every few months. In some places like Lebanon, the state seems paralyzed to do anything as a nation.

For many Canadians, they will take the relief for now. They will wait till Monday to fill their cars. Some provinces might follow suit. Canada does not control the war. It might be involved somehow in a peace agreement but we seem far off from that scenario yet. The now majority government of Mark Carney will have to move fast to juice the economy and bring affordability to the market. If the world will stop fighting.

Artemis Moon Mission

Going to space changes how astronauts think about the earth. They advocate for the well being of the planet and the people on it. It is hard not to feel the awesomeness of seeing everyone and every thing from space. The picture above is from the Artemis mission.

The Artemis rocket is transporting three Americans and one Canadian to the farthest point behind the moon that any human has gone before. The figure eight trip around the Earth and the Moon is a test run. If all goes well, the same astronauts will be in line to be the first humans on the moon since 1972. The twelve Americans from the Apollo missions 1969 to 1972 are the only astronauts to walk on the moon surface. Since that time, all human activity in space has been confined to low earth orbit.

Canada and the U.S. have been long time friends and allies in space. Even the Apollo mission relied on landing gear and communications as well as numerous engineers for its success. Canada was the third country in the world to put satellites in orbit.

To get our seat on Artemis, Canada was to build Canadarm3 for the station that was to orbit the moon. The cost was about $1 billion. However, the Lunar Gateway Mission has now been cancelled so Canada gets the seats to the moon and no Canadarm3 will be built. The adaptation to moon use is already being contemplated and certainly the future Mars mission is expected to include a robotic arm. Trudeau was able to get the agreement back in Trump's first term and Carney has committed to the space program in Trump's second term.

As with all things on a spaceflight, you sometimes have a "Houston, we have a problem moment." In this case, it is the toilet. Hope they figure this one out. It wasn't built in Canada.

Some say the excitement of the mission is blunted by the U.S. fighting in Iran. The criticism is not wrong. Thankfully, the joy and enthusiasm of the astronauts is infectious. As they approach home, the excitement will grow but for those on board, it will be to get down safely and then to go over all the knowledge they've gotten on how to make trips to the moon a regular and safer activity.

We are getting closer to the completion of the moon trip. However, it has captured the imaginations of so many with the amazing pictures of earth and the moon that will be treasured. Saving landing, crew of Artemis!

How to Survive the War

Parliament in Canada returns this week and the economic situation as a result of the war in Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Iraq, Syria, UAE, Qatar and elsewhere doesn't look to end soon. And even if it things were to end immediately, there has been enough of a disruption that it will take some time to get prices down to pre-war levels and security overall doesn't seem to be seriously in the cards.

Even if the United States backed out, Israel and Iran might continue to trade fire. And Israel also has Lebanon its Hezbollah front they are engaged in. Trump is deploying Navy, Air Force, Marines and Army assets even as he talks about some kind of deal. He did this in the earlier assault as well when saying a deal was imminent. Given the stock manipulations, it is possible this is just a way for some to extract billions on the market. No one will be held accountable for this.

The most recent call-up is for 3,000 Airborne troops. The debate among MAGA is the most ferocious between those are are super pro-Israel and those are not. Even for this supporting Israel's right to exist are not comfortable with a potential war with Iran. At the moment, Republicans are staying away from that term but eventually the public will make them pay if there is no support writ large for action.

In Canada, higher oil prices will mean higher royalties in oil producing provinces. Alberta and Saskatchewan may see their deficits end. Industrial provinces like Ontario might suffer with higher energy prices. However, it may also drive a movement in the U.S. to sign a free trade agreement, especially if there is a recession south of the border as a result of chaos from the war. The stock market keeps thinking Trump will chicken out at some point on Iran but he may have stirred the pot too much for it to cool down right away.

Israel's Prime Minister does not want the war to end. Netanyahu wants to occupy southern Lebanon as they once did from 1982 to 2000. Most Israelis tired of the endless stream of deaths of Israeli Defence Forces there. However, there have always been elements of Israeli religion and politics that has pushed for a larger Israel. The religious Republican Mike Huckabee who is the U.S. Ambassador has plainly said he supports a greater Israel that includes large portions of Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and further afield. Israeli cabinet ministers have suggested that even Turkey is a threat that needs to be dealt with. It is unhinged.

There has been a lot of talk about Israel directing U.S. policy in the region. Netanyahu has wanted America to crush Iran, even occupy it. And all the while this is going on, Netanyahu says a war is not right time to change the draft rules for Orthodox Jews. This must be frustrating to those Israeli forces who actually do the fighting. Some of citizens of both Israel and the U.S. believe the wars are distractions from other political issues that could put Trump and Netanyahu in legal troubles.

Canadian military forces in various areas of the Middle East that are facing aerial attacks have been moved back. The Strait of Hormuz supplies only a small part of energy needs of North America. However, oil prices are world prices so the supply lost in the choke point of the Persian Gulf means even Canada can't shelter from the price jolt. In Winnipeg, gas has risen to $172.9. The result is impacting energy process across the board as airlines jack rates up 20%. 

Sadly, the decline in inflation in February (much from gas prices dropping) have all but disappeared. The Bank of Canada will have some big decisions on interest rates. Raising them could result in a deep recession. Lowering them could raise inflation higher. Keeping them the same might do nothing. A world-wide recession and high oil prices hit everyone.

All the Carney moves on expanding trade are going to be needed as oil prices may be higher than the beginning of the year just because of damage already to oil infrastructure. And that is if the war ends this week. Going into two months and there will be real downturns everywhere as well as rationing and outright power outages. It is impossible to read anything from Trump's proclamations. Netanyahu is pretty much begging him to go to a ground war and occupation of Iran. He knows that if the U.S. shuts down aggression, he will not be able to continue attacks against Iran. And support for his push into Lebanon might be squelched.

So how do the rest of us survive all this? Well, there is no escape from high gas prices. The bigger your vehicle, the bigger your commute, the more you feel it. The stock market is also where people feel it as it is mostly down. For those who depend on the markets for pension income, it can be nerve wracking. If gas is high, diesel is worse which means trucking and rail is highly affected and price increases will be passed on to all consumers on everything shipped. Already air travel is seeing energy fees being applied. This spring break travel might be the last big travel period before we see people seriously consider not travelling by car or by air if it is too expensive. In Winnipeg, young people will be free on Transit as of July 1. It will be a huge cost savings.

Cost of living has been an issue even before this crisis but now we appear to seem to have to worry about stagflation, inflation and stagnant economy. The Carney government is headed into year two and has been trying to diversify the economy. They have managed to get agriculture goods moving again to China and energy to India. It has been tough because each negotiation comes with pros and cons. Some critics say we should not be trading with India and China because of human rights and foreign interference. Some critics don't even want us to have a trade relationship with Europe. It leads to some impossible standards to upkeep.  The point is the government needs to proceed with caution. Based on the world situation, we can't be overly reliant on any one country. And that is what we have been doing with the U.S.

On a personal level, people in Winnipeg really need to look for gas cheaper than the other guy. While some people complain about prices, they often shop at Shell and pay the highest price. Ditto for groceries. Looks for best prices to try and get some competition even with the supply issues. If there was ever a reason to to shop around, it is now. Canadians have already shown they will change their purchasing and travel decisions when it comes to the U.S. so they will have to do that at home to seek out best prices. It may be the best year to do a vegetable garden or insulate those house.

Large regional wars and conflicts in the past have resulted in rationing and some countries are already doing that with rotating blackouts and curfews. Canada has enough energy supply to not see that but that doesn't mean it won't get expensive with the world price. Some airlines are reporting they may go bankrupt. Some will shut down flights even for areas not affected by the conflict. It is hard to see how this will hit Canada.

If inflation does rise, this is where it will really hurt. Even an end to the war now will take some time to settle. Inflation could be around all year. The federal banks will have to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Housing prices might sink fast causing both positive and negative impacts. Housing prices need to come down but the suddenness of it might have people just leaving keys in the mailbox.

So the question is: How do we survive a war we didn't start, are largely not involved in but have world implications? Very carefully. If things get bad, expect that Canada begins a program to support the Canadian economy, avoid being part of the problem of aggression but possibly a solution for trying to deescalate. What that will be is hard to say. It just doesn't seem like this will end quickly.

U.S. Makes It's Position on Trade Clear

Figuring out the the Trump position on anything is a difficult one. He can contradict himself in the same day. But fair to say that his tariffs on Canada for steel, aluminum, lumber and cars is not just a negotiating position but the actual position he is taking so long as he is president. Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Traded Representative has made it very clear. He has stated that Canada's manufacturing sector has to move to the U.S. and Canada will have at least 10% tariff on all goods and possibly 15% tariff and Canada can't have any corresponding tariff or face punishment. He says the U.S. wants the liquor ban abandoned (even though it is in response to U.S. sectoral tariffs), they want access to Canada's dairy

The conservative viewpoint in Canada is that Trudeau and now Carney were just playing games on a deal. It is apparent that Poilievre in 2026 has seen popularity drop even steeper for not even mentioning Trump by name for few of alienating his base who, in some cases, support Trump and even advocate for the U.S. to annex Canada or for parts to separate. The steady migration of his MPs to the Liberals and low poll numbers could indicate that made in his own party see Trump as a drag on their support and chanced of government.

July 1st is the day that CUSMA, the free trade agreement is to be negotiated in earnest although discussion are going on non-stop since Trump came back into office. NAFTA and now CUSMA have been around since 1994 and aside from a few areas such as culture and supply management, it is almost entirely tariff-free. As such, Canada, Mexico and the U.S. have configured supply chains so that we are all supplying elements to an overall economy. The end of free trade means those supply chains disappear.

It would appear the U.S. thinks that all manufacturing will be in the U.S. and we will buy the products. However, the U.S. car companies of Ford, GM and Stellantis have already indicated now high priced the cars will be and that they are likely to go under as a result. For Canada, we are likely just to stop buying those products and get cheaper ones elsewhere. Chinese electric cars are far cheaper.

Many Republicans know how damaging tariffs are but the fear they have of Trump is so high, they will say nothing. The strategy of waiting or dragging out negotiations has been mentioned a few times. The Supreme Court has struck down some tariffs and others have time limitations on them. All the while, the mid-term elections are coming and some Republicans fear they will lose the House and possibly the Senate. By then it is game over and the House will take responsibility for tariff control again and Trump will see more Republicans distance from him.

Or at least that is what the Carney and the Canadian government is probably hoping for. Signing a bad deal is worse than no deal. As most countries are finding, Trump changes the deals he has in place every week.  With this in mind, Carney has been going to country after country to begin the process of restoring old trading relations and beginning new ones. In this past week, a deal with India on energy has been made despite misgivings about Indian involvement in the death of Canadians.

There is probably no trade deals out there that don't have some sort of naysayer. Sanctions for countries like Belarus and Russia because of Ukraine invasion. Tariffs, boycotts and tensions with the U.S. with Trump. Issues with China and India because of foreign intervention. And the list goes on. Any attempt to change those dynamics comes with challenges. And conservative media keeps says Carney is holding up real work on a U.S. trade agreement.

It starts to feel like gaslighting as we often see from Conrad Black contributions from the National Post. Or puff pieces from Postmedia about Poilievre. It is no wonder why Ford Progressive Conservatives get so annoyed. Ford knows that the deal the U.S. wants is to close down all car manufacturing in Canada and have a 15% tariff on top of that. Some federal Tories seem convinced Carney is holding up the deal but the provincial ones know that only a quick bad deal is in the offing.

Time is on Carney and Canada's side. Tariffs are unpopular among Americans. War fares even worse and the United States is doing both. The mid-term election in November possibly means the House of Representatives and Senate go Democrat. And while Democrats are not always trade friendly, they are not likely to pursue blanket tariffs on Canada and the world. Trump seems pretty set on his path and for the foreseeable future, Canada is likely to try to stay off his radar while leaving negotiating to the backrooms.

Harper Nostalgia from Conservatives

The Conservatives have been have been all mushy nostalgic for Stephen Harper this past week during the Calgary convention to affirm Pierre Poilievre as party leader. It is the Conservative convention so they can mush all the want. However, the Conservatives certainly leave out a lot of stuff when they talk about Harper, not the least of which is how he got thumped by Justin Trudeau for a terrible campaign and based on his record. And thereafter, Trudeau beat the new two Conservative leaders. It was the Liberals themselves who replaced Trudeau and thereafter Carney beat yet another Conservative leader in Pierre Poilievre.

The last time the Conservatives held power was back when Harper was Prime Minister. The National Post are been particularly strong in singing the praises of Harper the past weekend crediting him with a golden era in Canadian governance. They are very strong in condemnation of Trudeau. There is plenty to criticize Trudeau about but on things like military spending, Trudeau's government easily surpassed Harper who had .08% GDP spending even while we were in Afghanistan. Trudeau was at 1.3% and Carney is to bring it to 2% by March and head past that to 5%. Somehow the way the conservative media frames it, Harper was superior. He wasn't but they seek to downplay that. 

In terms of deficits, Harper media supporters say it was the result of the 2008 stock and economy crash. They credit Harper for managing the crisis while saying that Carney had nothing to do with it. I expect if Carney didn't help, Harper would not have offered him the job of Finance minister or be so effusive in praise of his job as Bank of Canada governor. It is all such nonsense. Such obvious digs sound just like they are: blindly partisan.

The seeds of most leaders demise show themselves early. The electorate initially appreciates or tolerates it in the early going. Most voters are are not extremists. They tend to vote for their own reasons. Having said that, the seeds of Harper's demise came from the social conservative side and his desire to end collection of data in some quarters. The cancelling the long form census and gagging government departments from reporting stuff not approved by his office was very concerning. The focus on immigrants and what they wore turned off a number of people as well as associating with the extremist side with the cultural barbaric practices hotline. Holy ICE in Canada! For Trudeau, it was the performative side of things. He went to India and was annoying in his costume and family holiday. Serious trade and security issues needed to be talked about and they were outshone by superficial stuff. Eventually, with high cost of living, the charismatic Trudeau looked destined for a thorough defeat.

Usually the leader are blind to their own weakness. And why would they think that anything other than victory was possible. Both Harper and Trudeau clobbered opposition. Liberals are not nostalgic for Trudeau insofar that they want him back. I personally believed that some of his personal foibles would have resulted in loss of position by almost every other Liberal MP if they had committed them. Still, I approved in general the change in cannabis law, the handling of the pandemic and the free trade agreement in Trump's first term. As for the cost of living and handling the crime and drug addictions, I was like many people not very happy.

It has been interesting to note in recent days that Harper and Chretien were on stage together talking about national unity. It is hard to imagine this in the U.S. right now. In fact, both men mentioned the issue of Donald Trump and how the country should come together. It was fairly funny to but it also emphasizes Poilievre's problem. While he can embrace nostalgia for Harper, he is having a hard time being critical because there are so many Trump supporters in his party, some who even welcome being the 51st state.

Based on the way the Conservatives are acting, it is clear they don't want to pull the trigger on an election right away. If the act with bravado and block things, Carney might be compelled to call a snap election and call their bluff. Minorities don't have long. If no more floor crossers join the Liberals, the election could be in 2026. Poilievre is meeting Carney to discuss the session. It doesn't seem likely he would do that if he was going to vote non-confidence in the next month.

In the mean time, conservative media will continue to say what a grand time a Harper conservative government was and say nothing bad ever happened. The relationship between Canada, the U.S. and China was never as good as some on the right have said. Harper never did get a pipeline in Canada or the U.S. either. Trudeau got the one in Canada completed. Harper kept the worst instincts of the party down until he didn't. 

Carney and Chretien were present this week when Stephen Harper had his portrait unveiled in Ottawa on 20th anniversary since he was in office. Peter McKay was present too. But no Poilievre. It was probably not a thing he wanted to show a non-partisanship appearance at. A missed opportunity to grow his base. However, his base in furious and angry. About everything. They want to control the courts and judges. They want to end bilingualism. Go to zero immigration. They will go to extremism if they see the Conservatives give on these issues.

It is hard to believe that the Harper nostalgia doesn't teach anything new to present day Conservatives. They certainly don't seem to be listening to Harper now.

Carney in the Post Davos World

 

Much has been made of Mark Carney's speech in Davos, Switzerland about the current situation the world sees itself after one year of Donald Trump's return to office. It is interesting to note that is has had a world-wide response and the speech was re-printed in Le Monde and the New York Times. Donald Trump has reacted negatively and disinvited Carney to his Board of Peace. This may be a blessing for Carney. And Trump is escalating. He says he will launch 100% tariffs on Canada for the recent trade deal with China which does not involve sending any goods to the U.S. but a lowering of tariffs to pre-2024.

In Canada, Pierre Poilievre credited Carney with with an excellent speech and then went on for pages after criticizing him and his government. His main argument is that Carney has done nothing and his party has done nothing. This could be posturing for the election leadership review that Poilievre faces in two weeks. Every opportunity to bring down the minority government he has passed on. We'll see if he is ready to take the government down in February.

We don't have as many silos of only right wing or left wing views as the U.S. has. The American-owned National Post just doesn't have the reach nor does right wing radio or podcasting media in Canada have near the influence it does south of the border. Our bookstores have smaller politics section than U.S. ones where every politician or media person has a book out, it seems. Even social media is light on politics in Canada even on X (Twitter), TikTok and YouTube. Most Canadians seem to get their news from a diverse number of sources and stubbornly hug the middle in most things.

Nevertheless, Conrad Black, who received a pardon from Trump, says that Canada and NATO countries have been have been letting the U.S. do all the work. He seems to forget Afghanistan when Canada honoured Article 5 and went to fight. The first four Canadians killed in Afghanistan were killed by "friendly fire" from American forces. A total of 158 Canadian Forces killed along with 6 civilians seem to have been forgotten. Not just by Trump but by Conrad Black. The Super Conservative forgetting all this is appalling as is the soft pedaling of the disgust many Canadians feel about the threats that Black largely ignore. He gaslights us by calling it derangement syndrome.

The election in 2025 very much felt like a vote for stability when Mark Carney was elected. Canadians seemed to have a visceral response to the chaos south of the border. Many are angry at the aggressive bullying from Donald Trump. It has changed travel and shopping patterns and continues to alter them. It seems like whatever conservative media there is clearly is not reading the room at the rage against the U.S. and Trump in Canada. Every time the Conservatives blame Carney, they are likely setting their own prospects back.

The Winnipeg Sun seems to recognize that Trump's criticism of Carney helps the Liberals get their majority. The editorial believes it might be a conspiracy. The truth is a lot of conservatives are not looking for a united Canada. Some want separation. Some want 51st state. Polls consistently say that the majority in every province are against that. Even when Conservatives have power provincially and federally, there has been a separatist minority so blaming Liberals for them doesn't wash.

Pierre Poilievre had said the Liberals under Carney are not doing anything which is not exactly true. The budget passed but other pieces of legislation have been held up in the minority parliament. Parliament seems stalled as so often happens in a minority. The Carney government has announced GST relief that Poilievre says he will support. Since it is a financial measure, a vote down would likely trigger an election which Conservatives don't seem prepared for.

Trump might be miffed with Carney and his ambassador and cabinet are uttering threats and encouraging separation of Alberta. The ambassador seems perplexed why we won't just surrender our industry to the U.S. or why we'd consider them a threat? Not entirely sure some in Trump's team will every get why were not on board with their plans. Ultimately, it could be Carney is waiting for the Supreme Court to weigh in on the tariffs. Based on the questions the Supreme Court had for Trump officials, it seems likely they are worried that it might be an overreach on Congress and their constitutional power. However, given how the administration looks to dump the Second Amendment when it is a anti-Trump rally and shoot a protestor, who knows?

Although Poilievre has been critical of it, Carney has been travelling lots. He will continue to do in 2026 with India and Australia in search of business and security deals. The Europeans just signed a massive trade deal with India this week and Canada may be close to doing so as well. In Australia, Canada is buying a billion dollar defense system to be used in the north to detect intrusions. It is hard to believe that Poilievre would sit at home in some chauvinistic way to appeal to his base rather than making business, security and business deals around the world. His fear of being called a globalist would do harm to Canada.

Poilievre using the same talking points of the last election may not serve him well. The Canadian public has pivoted and it has a lot to do with Trump. And Poilievre still doesn't know how to respond well to Trump because a lot of his base loves the man. As we swing to separation talks in different regions, the fear is that the U.S. will meddle. They already are. And Poilievre can't be seen to lead the conga line for that. 

The Trump people have so many fires to put out that they started and the mid-term elections are happening this year. Time is running out to run on a winning message. The Supreme Court is to weigh in at any time on tariffs any time up till mid-February. This could result in a reversal of Trump tariffs. As it stands now, China has ordered many shiploads of canola at a reduced tariff and should stay within American red line limits. Prime Minister Carney might just have to wait things out till then.

For now we have to put up with Treasury Secretary Bessant and Commerce Secretary Lutnick gaslighting us about how it is Canada that started this fight with drugs crossing the border and our unfair trading practices. A list of Trump officials will have nothing good to say no matter what concessions are made. And Trump himself is likely to take it as weakness to try for a takeover. It isn't just negotiating strategies. After Venezuela, everything has to be looked at as a shakedown.

The Conservatives in Canada have been saying they are not Trump MAGA while re-posting MAGA comments. Liberal support is up mostly at the cost of the NDP and Bloc in the post Davos speech polling. The Conservatives have called it virtue signaling and said if the Liberals are not adopting the the Poilievre plan, they are doing nothing. Given the tax and GST cuts, the Liberals are not exactly doing nothing. And the canola shipments are hard to argue with except if Conservatives are saying they wouldn't sign tariff reduction deals with China.

A number of media outlets have indicated that Carney has a long list of additional travels in 2026, Some Conservatives are critical saying he should be back in Canada in Parliament facing a blocking opposition. This ignores the amount of Team Canada trips that Stephen Harper did that Conservative are extolling now. India and Australia trips are coming up and there are hints that trade agreements are pending. We can't completely replace American trade. It is simply too big and North American is too integrated to not reach a deal. However, we can't act like we are the ones blocking a deal.

It is still likely an election happens this year unless there is another few floor crossers to the Liberals. Minority governments never last long. Until then, Carney will run a government trying to mitigate the chaos in the U.S.