The B.C. Election and What it Means for Manitoba

B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix in Defeat

Despite Losing Her Own Seat, B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark Wins

What can you can about Tuesday's Liberal majority win in the B.C. election?

Some are calling it the upset of the century in Canadian politics. Perhaps. We have seen a few reversals in fortunes over the years. To be fair to B.C. though, this was a rather stunning turn of events.

By all accounts, the NDP expected to win the provincial election. They expected to win big. Some figured it was a moral imperative that they do win against a Liberal party that was wrong, wheezing, unloved and in need of a time out.

The Liberals had so many knocks against it the last years that people started to lose count. The Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) struck down, party staffers linked to controversial political notes, the economy and a whole host of others things seemed to tag the Liberals time and time again on the chin.

The political opinion polls had given wide support to the NDP. Adrian Dix, the leader looked to be the man to takeover the premier's office and hand Liberal leader Christy Clark a devastating defeat.

So what went wrong?

Well, I don't live in B.C. and won't presume to know everything about the politics there. However, let's look at a few things.

First: It is generally a difficult task to unseat a sitting government

The government has all the advantages before the writ is dropped. It can run ads on TV for government service that promote its work. It can deliver money to various areas and be there for all the glad handing. It has a large staff, better resources, better access to funds, better access to new candidates than other parties.

In short, being in government is like a runner who is allowed a few strides out of the blocks even more the starter's gun is fired.

Second: Negative ads work

The NDP leader Adrian Dix said he was going to run a positive campaign. It failed. The Liberals hit hard and they hit mean and the NDP took a drubbing. It is a fine line to decide just how far to take things in an ad campaign. While Canadians say they don't like the ads, it is surprising how they will quote back from them when asked for an impression.

It is often thought that Jack Layton ran a positive campaign.

Remember this ad?

It was a effective and despite Ignatieff indicating that he needed to meet Canadians directly after becoming leader, it played on a carefully constructed narrative that Layton was hard at work in Ottawa.

One can imagine the attendance record of the NDP during their campaign as Tom Mulcair took over. Or of the Liberals today with Justin Trudeau taking over.

In any case, negative ads work. It is something Justin Trudeau must accept or looks like Adrian Dix in the next election.

Third: Political opinion polls can be wrong

Or at the very least cause people to change their vote, lose their interest and maybe not show up. Voter turn out was awful. Did some people assume a NDP victory and figure their vote was not needed.? Did Liberal voters get scared and run to the ballot boxes to stop an NDP victory?

Or is there something more fundamental? Are the poll callers not getting through to enough electorate? Are they routinely missing people? Is the measurement of opinion failing terribly?

Fourth: Voter turn out is imperative

Even if polls are super accurate, they can be undermined by a lazy and unmotivated voter.  Liberals got their vote out, the NDP did not.

Fifth: Don't count your chickens

A good political campaign depends on many things. Sometimes it is because your opponent slips. In B.C., the provincial Conservative struggled and had a few candidates dropped.  This kept people from considering voting for them rather than Liberals or NDP. A vote Conservative was more likely to help the NDP.

The NDP didn't know how to fight the negative campaign and looked weak when having to defend themselves.

Luck, skill and timing are important. A campaign can turn on a dime with an economic report, scandal, a debate or a perceived gamechanger.

It should be mentioned that elections rarely turn on one key policy. It is more about the the perception of what your overall focus will be rather than specific ideas.

Analysts might scratch their heads for some time with this one. We may never know what main turning point changed everything. Suffice to say, it may have been all of the above or none of the above.

***

So what does this mean for Manitoba?

We had our election in 2011 and although the Tories led initial polls heading into the vote, their support was spread out inefficiently. The NDP staked a claim on seat rich Winnipeg and continued to target voters with money and policies that would make Stephen Harper proud as it comes from his playbook.

Any potential Liberal threat was mitigated and despite what some once again called good policies, the thinking was that Jon Gerrard was not the man to challenge the two main parties.

For better or for worse, it is usually about the leader in provincial elections. In provincial politics in general, it is hard for people to identify their own local elected officials.

In the past Manitoba election, the decision was generally about who should leader. Hugh McFadyen just didn't connect with people. And although Greg Selinger wasn't lighting up the skies, he was the premier and it was enough to carry the day.

It obviously came down to more than that. The Progressive Conservatives caused some suspicion and lost credibility with their promise to have a longer deficit than the NDP.

The negative NDP campaign about Manitoba Hydro was something the PCs just couldn't defend against. The problem was they had no election platform to challenge the NDP where they lived and breathed on health and education.

In short, not enough contrast so that the PCs could hit hard on an issue or two favoured by Manitobans.

***

Lesson learned for the next Manitoba election? All the parties have to create a narrative for their campaign, the leader has to be sharp and a rapid defence initiated to every challenge. Don't be afraid to go negative but watch for over the top. Don't let the polls discourage and motivate your voters right to the last minute.

The final tally is all that matters in the end

Brian Pallister - Leader of Progressive Conservatives

Brian Pallister - Leader of Manitoba Progressive Conservatives


No one else wanted it. After years of sniping from the sidelines by various PC members through two leaders, no one else came forward to take on the mantle of leadership. Brian Pallister was the only one to declare. The demoralized and scared Progressive Conservative MLAs all scrambled to announce they wouldn't be running.

Talk about depressing.

I am not a Progressive Conservative but the slogan of Aim Higher ought to include a vital race for leadership.

At the moment, we face the prospect of a permanent governing party in the NDP. You can see a certain smugness in NDP circles that will be unchallenged for years to come. You can see this in the contribution to the Free Press from Sel Burrows, an NDP activist. He believes the NDP has a solid lock on center right and cannot be attacked by the Progressive Conservatives from the left or improve the NDP's position on other issues like crime and education.

Sel Burrows has been a tad restless on social policy from the NDP and he has sniped from the side. However, he remains an NDP loyalist and party brass know this and let him criticize because he will continue to deliver inner city ridings in elections despite any misgivings he has. Why Burrows continues to do the party bidding and be taken for granted is anyone's guess. However, if he has a fatalist view of things about others doing worse, maybe that guides his hand.

This isn't a critical piece on Sel Burrows. He is an activist and a loyalist despite his critical views of the government and has tried to help his community. However, one thing is certain: he is wrong that the NDP cannot be challenged on issues right or left and gain no success for the party that does so.

Sel Burrows says the PCs can't win on inner city issues. Well, since the ridings that befuddle the Tories on winning office are in the suburbs, it is there that they should concentrate their efforts.

In the past Hugh McFadyen and Stuart Murray have tried to campaign on tax deductions, law and order and healthcare. Much of the sound and fury focussed on crime and tax. Good issues, yes, but ones we saw time and time again not appeal to women voters.

Women voters have and will be the key to Progressive Conservatives winning office. It is likely that many women voters were looking for ideas on issues that mattered to them. They didn't find satisfaction with opposition on what they offered. And in the 2011 election, Hugh McFadyen couldn't turn the focus off of Manitoba Hydro and its possible sale. Moreover, he confused his own supporters with a less fiscally responsible policy on deficit and debt than the NDP proposed.

In polls leading to the election, the PCs seemed well positioned to turn the tide. It is shocking to see just how bad the policy platform was and how they couldn't respond to attack ads.

Anyways, I believe the NDP are vulnerable on issue of social and economic policy that the Progressive Conservatives can offer a different platform on. Many of these issues are important in particular to women, especially suburban women.

So, here is the winning formula for PCs to win:

Daycare


This is an out and out disaster. The registry doesn't work, is poorly managed, there are too few spaces, not enough being built and affordability is an issue. While some make Tories might ask: why are we paying for choices made by people to place their children in care, they should be saying: We are helping families save costs, helping employers by ensuring their workers have services to increase productivity, getting skilled men and woman back in the market, providing safe and enriching care for children.

But how to get there? How does one increase daycare spaces in a timely fashion. That comes with the next policy.

Full Time Kindergarten


We will be the last province to get it at this pace. If the PCs announce in an election they are committed to full time Kindergarten, it will change the debate. You can bet women are going to turn off any talk about selling Hydro or not selling Hydro when they hear this policy.

We need it. We should have it. It will win an election.

And moreover, full time Kindergarten opens up lots of space in daycares as children migrate from half days spent in daycare to move into the classroom.

Want to make the Manitoba Teacher's Society, the school trustees and parents happy? Tell them that Kindergarten will be full time within two years of taking office.

Full Time Homecare

Parents who have kids are sometimes being sandwiched between their own parents who increasingly need help because of their own health issues. Some families are being run ragged between kids and parents in need.

Full time homecare will help families.

It is a winning policy.

Housing

I don't know how anyone can say the NDP have succeeded on this one. The worst landlord in the province is the province. The solution for the NDP is to build more Manitoba Housing. Ick.

Rent control should end and renters who need assistance should be supported. Manitoba Housing should be sold and those who are on social assistance should be able to rent anywhere. To do this, the policy should be to provide some tax assistance to developers to provide various units in blocks for those on assistance.

The outcome of this will be: More rental units in more locations around the city, less bunching up of problems in provincially run Manitoba Housing.

Provincially owned landed that the province has been sitting on as parking lots should be offered up to developers for proposals that include lots of housing. The NDP have sat on these lots for more than a decade and continue to move slow on this issue.

***

Those are but a few areas that the PCs could and should propose a change in social policy that will win them female and suburban votes.

There are other areas they can use to hurt the NDP where they need to be hurt: Infrastructure. It is safe to say the NDP know they are vulnerable on this and yet they contribute huge amounts to urban sprawl with their own development of Waverley West all the while not helping to fix the high traffic they create with it.

They should be hammered on this issue.

What we have seen so far from the PCs is a wasted opportunity. A non-vital leadership race ends in a whimper. Zero profile gained for the new leader. No policy or organizational discussion. Awful.

This doesn't need to be the end of the story. However, unless we wish to get what Sel Burrow's and other NDPers are thinking: a permanent NDP majority; the Tories have to think and act differently.

The beauty of this is that much of it can still remain with stated PC principles.

Manitoba Election 6 Predictions

In the last election the NDP won a majority government with 36 seats won to the Progressive Conservatives 19 seats. The Liberals came away with 2.

In the terms of change, it was a 1 seat addition for the NDP and a triumph for the NDP. Little did anyone know that Gary Doer would not serve his entire term. Did anyone ask?

There was only one seat gained by the NDP but it affirmed the popularity support that Gary Doer had as leader of the NDP.

The difference for the PCs to unseat the NDP seems too great at this point to make a difference in ending NDP rule.

First, the Liberal predictions.

Jon Gerrard should should hold River Heights. It has been a tough fight but people appreciate his presence in the riding and in the legislature.

Kevin Lamouruex is gone to represent federally. But his people are working hard to gain Roldan Sevillano a seat.

Tyndall Park and River Heights will be gains.

Spirited campaigns by other Liberals will have difficultly breaking through.

Liberals Hold: 2 Seats.

The Progressive Conservatives will hold all their present seats or the proximity to the old boundaries. Hugh McFadyen and the PCs will make some gains.

The NDP made a wash with in St. Norbert. They screwed up the nomination and with no incumbent there, they are vulnerable. Gain for Karen Velthuys. Shocker will be if name recognition puts Marcel Laurendeau of the the Liberals there instead.

I think the NDP are vulnerable in a few places in western Manitoba. Brandon East will go PC. I think with Rosann Wowchuck in place, Swan River will go PC. I think Interlake will go PC.

In a shocker, re-distribution may deliver La Verendrye and the new Dawson Trail to the PCs.

Progressive Conservative Gain: 6 seat

That puts them at 25 in the Legislature.

The NDP drop to 30 in the Legislature.

NDP Lose: 6 seats

House split 30 NDP, 25 PCs and 2 Liberals.

Manitoba Election 5

Fear

And Charleswood

It has been an election campaign about fear. Fear of change. fear of the other guy.

The vitriol in this election comes more from the NDP than pretty much any other quarter. The Blackberry Addicts and Just Damm Stupid are instructive in this matter.

Aside from The Black Rod, the sealed from the outside world, written in a dark basement somewhere with doors bolted and shotgun across the lap, there is not a lot of right of center blow the barns door off blogs.

I am not likely to vote Progressive Conservative in this election. I am in the Tuxedo riding. Some River Heights and Charleswood people get thrown into this mix, me among them.

Not since 1988 when Gary Filmon squeaked out a win against Jasper McKee has the riding been threatened with not having a Progressive Conservative MLA. Given the amount of signs for Heather Stefanson, it is hard to see fall in the riding.

I have nothing against Stefanson personally. She is solid enough and likely a cabinet contender should the Progressive Conservatives get into office. I don't fear her. The fear or secret agenda of the NDP don't wash with me.

However, I have simply have not seen outstanding ideas from the PCs or from her when it comes to the future of the province. The PCs under Hugh McFadyen have come a long way. However, they still have not articulated outstanding ideas that have the wow factor in them. And when they have possible strength in saying they would have better financial management for the future, it is tempered with spending promises and deficit reduction that says "not quite conservative."

The NDP candidate Dashi Zargani is no stranger to the riding. He ran for city council although he played down his NDP roots when questioned about it in that election. He is an improvement from the last candidate the NDP ran who was a student from across town. I had nothing against that candidate in the last election except I could not help wondering why the NDP party, the government in power, could not attract a single local resident to run under the party colours. It isn't like they were the opposition who might not have any local presence and had to send a candidate from outside to ensure a full slate.

This time the NDP have a local candidate in Zargani. Still, I remember from two council forums in the last election, he fell short of wowing the audience with ideas for the riding. I was initially impressed with him as a candidate but he needed polishing then. This time, I have not heard too much of what his ideas for the riding are.

Zargani's problems don't come alone from having very little on his website or campaign literature or door knocking. It comes with the long term party he represents in power. I simply cannot abide the fear that drives it.

The NDP could have said they were proud of what they had done but they were planning on renewal and change in the future. They didn't do this. Instead they have been on the attack like never before. Nasty, venal, bullying with the power they have and brutish in various forums they try to shout down others.

The Green Party has Donald Benham running. He is the son of former River Heights councillor Donald Benham. He is from outside the riding and is waving the flag for a stronger provincial effort on the part of The Greens. More power to the Greens but their stand on bans, restrictions and the like on a wide range of items make them unpalatable to me. Much like Prohibitionists, they don't seem to realize the backlash they would create. Much better for them to concentrate on their strengths of offering ideas that might save more money but wouldn't feel like a bitter pill shoved down one's throat.

The Liberals are running their past party president Linda Minuk as Tuxedo candidate. She is a bilingual lawyer.

Like Zargani, the Liberal candidate doesn't have a lot on her website about what she might do in the area. To be truthful though, hardly any of the candidates do. Minuk appears to be, like everyone else, standing behind the leader.

Jon Gerrard has been around a while. His platform does have difference from the other two parties, sometimes touching on policies the others don't wish to discuss such as Sunday shopping.

There is still time before the election for local candidates to make their presence felt so I won't say more till the date draws close. I really hope to see something either on a website, news article or elsewhere that gives me more information.

Until then, fear rules the day. Anger and nastiness prevail. And people looking to know more about their local candidates struggle. They try to sort through the chafe and for many, they try to care at all.

Manitoba Election 3

Trust the Winnipeg Sun to get it wrong.

They want to support the Conservative party in whatever jurisdiction they are in and no amount of crime legislation or policing is enough for them, they will ask for more. And only one political party ever gets it right for them and that is the Conservatives. All the other parties support criminals in their view.

Never does the paper look at crime prevention overall. They want bigger sentences, no pardons, no paroles, more police, more prisons and more spending.

It is highly doubtful they will ever truly ask how effective the police helicopter is compared to how the money might have been spent on officers on the ground. Seeing as how they were the driving force behind the helicopter, we shouldn't be surprised.

In their editorial to support Hugh McFadyen and ankle bracelets, they decide to trash Jon Gerrard and the Liberals as hugging thugs. Gerrard's crime: Wanting to spend money on recreation programs to help prevent kids from being attracted to crime.

What we don’t want to hear is talk about how community club programs are the answer to our crime woes, a preposterous suggestion put forward by the Liberals on Tuesday. There’s nothing wrong with handing out some money for such things, of course, but to suggest it will have much of an effect on curbing crime is a stretch.

So I have to ask the Winnipeg Sun: Do you believe the Winnipeg Police Service hugs thugs? Well, do ya?

The reason I ask is because the Winnipeg Police Service believes in recreation for kids to turn them around.

A report by a Winnipeg Police Service officer and city employee to the Protection and Community Services Committee recommended free access for kids who are involved in the province’s Turnabout Program, which focuses on kids 12 years old or younger who have gotten into trouble or are at risk of doing so.

The program would cost about $60,000 and serve roughly 150 families of four people according to a financial impact statement on the proposal.

Now, the Winnipeg Sun might want to bring back the death penalty and lock up all offenders and by all means that is their right. However, if the Winnipeg Police and Jon Gerrard think it might be cheaper to act *before* someone becomes an offender, does that make them huggers of thugs?

The name calling that the Winnipeg Sun is doing is akin the bullying and tries to make everyone one up each other for most aggressive anti-crime stance.

In the same paper that criticizes Jon Gerrard, the editors tell a letter writer not to resort to vigilante justice.

Sick to the stomach

Re: ‘Welcome to Killerpeg,’ Tom Brodbeck, Sept. 2.

I agree with Tom and every other good citizen of this city who is sick to their stomach about of youth punks getting away with murder. To add insult to injury, we the public don’t even have the right to know who these youths are because it might be unfair to them.

Well, if any friend or family member of mine is ever brutalized by young punks, I won’t be lobbying our government or crying out and begging my MP to change our weak-wiled laws. I won’t for two reasons. One, there are simply too many bleeding heart liberals in this country to see any real significant changes occur, now or ever. Two, I prefer to take out my own garbage.

MARK STYLES

Appreciate your frustration, but vigilante justice isn’t a good idea.

So, is the Winnipeg Sun hugging a thug for not agreeing that the people should deal with crime the old fashioned way? Are they far left commies?

I guess it is too much to ask the Sun to maybe look into something before namecalling. Could have been a good idea to ask the police and police association of what they thought of Gerrard's idea before labelling it. However, that would not be in keeping with editorials that have to be approved by others in terms of how it supports their chosen party.

Manitoba Election 2

The negative ads turn people off and they often work. Even the federal NDP in the last election ran negative ads despite the impression that they ran a positive campaign.



Remember that ad?

However, it ended in the soft approach of Jack Layton saying he'd be different. That is easier to do than defend against a record in government.

Ultimately, the ads that were most effective for the NDP and the Tories were against the Liberals. Even before the election was run, the impression was set of Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals.

In the provincial election of 2011, the provincial NDP under Greg Selinger has pulled out the nastiest campaign we have seen in the 1980s when the PCs and NDP were all alone in the legislature to spout hatred of one another. It was awful. And polarizing.

The ad campaign the NDP are running on privatizing Hydro is particularly brazen.

Can you imagine if ad campaigns against the NDP ran like this:

NDP plan to nationalize MTS!

NDP to introduce HST!

And so on...

At this point, it probably will be an out and out campaign of nastiness.

One thing is clear: The NDP have been in power 12 years and they do have a record to run on and defend. This can be a good and a bad thing.

They can take credit for some good things but it is going to be hard to trumpet reductions in crime when this year may outpace past years for murder, arson, drugs and gang activity. How many fires has the police helicopter put a stop to? Some parts of the province are a war zone.

And as far as economic activity goes, we are not doing as well as other provinces. There is an increasing gap in now much tax Manitoba pays relative to other provinces.

Our education program which really is directed from the province down is not producing results. There are too many school divisions, too much interference when a division wants to close a small school, too much dependence on property tax to fund education and too few graduates.

Think of the two things above and we continue to see a net migration of people away from the province. Not good.

Greg Selinger can say that the province is making progress on a lot of things but people who have suffered crime, felt the tax sting and have had family move out of the province for better education or job opportunities are going to have to be convinced of the merits of having the NDP in another term.

The PCs under Hugh McFadyen tried scare tactics last election on crime but while it was a concern, the economy stability and popularity of Gary Doer was just too much to overcome for a new leader.

The NDP at the time used the most simple of attack techniques. They defined the leader before PCs could do that themselves.

The NDP commercials suggest they are going down this path again. The problem is whether the message will have the same impact as it did when no one knew Hugh McFadyen.

The NDP face their own problem of selling their leader whom the public doesn't know very well. Greg Selinger on the face of things seems joyless. Unlike Gary Doer, he doesn't look comfortable out in public and doesn't have the star appeal that the former premier did. In short, the man doesn't look like he would be comfortable having a beer at a Blue Bomber game.

Charisma and charm can go a long way. A negative campaign would likely work a lot better if Selinger had it as easily as Doer did.

The same applies to Hugh McFadyen. He has to be visible and people have to hear him speak. Television would appear to be the best bet. They might take a cue from Jack Layton's ad above.

As for the Liberals, Jon Gerrard has to be one of the more decent men in politics. He appears to have a few good people running and the Manitoba Legislature would be a poorer place with two polarized parties in it. The electorate would do themselves well to look at the policies of all the parties are and not fear who they vote for whether it be Greens or Liberal or whatever.

The NDP and PCs should guard against talking about wasted votes. The voice of Jack Layton could be embarrassing if used against the NDP on this matter. Likewise, the Tories would benefit from a stronger Liberal vote and shouldn't see it as harmful to their cause.

More NDP Re-Directing

Still seeing more NDP supporters going after the PCs and McFadyen about what he would do to end the deficit while saying nothing about what the NDP intends to do about themselves.

The truth is that they are hoping that the election does not focus on their lack of plan at all.

They keep announcing more and more spending and will likely keep announcing it through an election. However, as soon as the election is over, I think we might see what we saw when the NDP won in Nova Scotia. The NDP premier is promising big cuts to the budget.

The NDP in Manitoba has no such plans. The deficit will continue to grow.

Like the NDP of the Howard Pawley government of the 1980s, the government of Greg Selinger and his predecessor Gary Doer have been marked by rising deficits.

I remember the waste in MPIC, MTS and Workers Compensation under the NDP. The same thinking is now trying to sink Manitoba Hydro.

So expect more NDP fear and screaming and accusations of terror. However, they will likely do the same thing Nova Scotia's NDP is doing after an election if they win. They will say: "We had no idea it was this bad" despite the fact they were in power for 11 years.

The NDP must answer the question of what they will do to end the deficits. All we hear is them howling about everyone else.

NDP And the Deficit

The NDP on blogs and forums are still in full attack. They are either making bold claims about the massive majority they are going to win and sloganeering with "moving Manitoba forward" or they are attacking the PCs and Hugh McFadyen.

We are looking at five years of deficits and the only way the NDP could avoid breaking the law on deficits was to change it so that they could run deficits for a few years before balancing the books.

In 14 months, Greg Selinger has continued to spend and spend and his NDP supporters continue to tell us how brilliant it all is from the stadium to the human rights museum to the west side path of Manitoba's Hydro bipole III. So many worthy projects, so many more to come. It unlikely we are going to see a budget of restraint nor are we going to see a frugal election.

The NDP supporters are shouting the PCs will cut everything and people will lose jobs all over the place. They scream what will you cut?! It would appear that the shouting is a cover for not answering the question themselves. Make people fearful about the opposition and not answer the question that the government should be answering themselves.

Off the top of my head, the government ought to be looking at every department of government for ways to hold the line. They should be looking at holding wages down as a first option over cutting workers. They should stop saying yes to every call for money from the human rights museum to the stadium. They should stop making political decisions such as with the hydro line. They should drop the ethanol program as a failed policy.

Perhaps if they did some of those things, they might not have to look at harder options of raising taxes, cutting services or hoping for a runaway rise in the economy and burgeoning transfer payments. Hope from the Feds seem iffy given the fact slower growth and better control on spending seems to be the order of the day.

The opposition will indeed have to present their platform when the election happens but the NDP is the government now and they have shown no signs of controlling their high spending ways.

The very aggressive tactics of their supporters is going to intensify with every poll that puts their party behind. After 11 years, the hysterics and histrionics are not being well received. However, it seems the marching orders have been given to the party faithful to go for the gutter when it comes to attacking.

Some have been attacking Hugh McFadyen's personal life. Pretty awful but I expect we'll see more of it.

The PCs should try to avoid the most muddy of the tactics. They need to work on a solid platform, talks about the tough road ahead but emphasize the positive.

It is difficult to know what the Liberals will do. Jon Gerrard needs to find good candidates and present a platform that is different from the other parties. Not everyone is comfortable voting for the two major parties in the province for the simple fact that they can act out in this left/right free for all battle. The Liberals need to present a centrist platform and indicate that even a few Liberals in the legislature can help change the tone.

One thing is clear though. The NDP attacks will only draw attention to the lack of a plan on their own part. People will be less forgiving than they might have been even 14 months ago. Most in the province know that while the province might be doing better than other places, we can't depend on transfer payments booming and that the deficit cannot be imagined away.

Provincial Political Polls

A series of year end polls have shown the Progressive Conservatives continue to place first in polling. The NDP are in second and the the Liberals are in third.

The Liberal support has risen slightly. It is the NDP and the Progressive Conservatives numbers that have moved in different directions.

Women seem to be changing their vote. Much like how women gave the Progressive Conservatives the thumbs down on bringing back the Jets, women are not that enthusiastic about the big money bringing a stadium to the University of Manitoba. In short, it is not an issue that moves them. I have no idea how the NDP can sell the deal but it is hard to buy for those who place higher value on other issues. As for men who might like a stadium, it is the costs and lack of any private backers like was seen on the MTS Centre that is suspending the huge cheers and possible support that might come from the project.

Greg Selinger knows that he can't afford to reveals the number being paid to David Asper and Creswin Properties and won't. Not very transparent and not likely to earn kudos from people for open government.

The Blue Bombers are on the hook to pay for a lot of the stadium. To do that, they will have to raise prices on every item beyond what some NDP blue collar supporters will find comfortable. Even their beer will be a premium price. Moreover, as long as the Bombers owe money to the province, the team cannot be bought by anyone.

As for the hydro project of bipole III, the costs remain nebulous and the reasons for running down the west side of the province hard to rationalize when the province is thinking of running a road up the east side. Hard to say one is better than the other environmentally when you don't even have an independent assessment done.

This time the PC support isn't a sudden wellspring from having a new leader. It has been steady growth over months and from the public having a chance to see Greg Selinger. There are no coattails for the NDP that they can ride on like they did with Gary Doer.

Can the NDP turn things around? Sure. It would help to have an economy on fire and a deficit that was being pared down to nothing. However, even then people will judge on the future. If they don't feel that the government looks to get a handle on spending or its priorities, they will drift away. For want of something different, they will look to a party that represents "change."

Voter fatigue is a real event in Manitoba. Most parties are done after 10 years in favour of someone else.

The PCs could still blow the election and do something dumb. Liberal votes could collapse by half. This would benefit the NDP. However, the NDP will have to do more than run a negative campaign and unleash their unofficial attacks on forums and blogs.

People are looking for change and that will require some innovative thinking and offering some vision.

The Life of Former Premier Sterling Lyon

Former Premier Sterling Lyon died yesterday after a short illness. He had a long history of public service to Manitoba including 16 years on the Manitoba Court of Appeal.

Lyon came from the right contingent of the Progressive Conservative party and rose to leader in 1975. The jury is still out on Hugh McFayden but by most reckoning, Lyon was the last from the right to command the PCs. When he won in 1977, it was more about fatigue with the NDP government of Edward Schreyer than an endorsement of a return of a time that existed before Duff Roblin.

The free enterprise laissez-faire approach of Sterling Lyon ran smack into the reality of a recession that hit Manitoba particularly hard. Large manufacturers such as Swift's and Canada Packer went under during their watch. The Winnipeg Tribune also collapsed. Thousands of Manitobans were out of work and an exodus of people to the more recession proof energy provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta accelerated. Most embarrassing for the Progressive Conservatives was that their restraint program still produced a huge a deficit and didn't produce a big economic turn around.

To make matters worse, Sterling Lyon was engaged in important but distracting national meetings on the Constitution. While Lyon was able to get the "not withstanding" clause added to the document, he did so while away from his province at a critical time economically. The pugnacious attitude of Lyon during this time certainly had its critics. Still, in 1981, the PCs led in the polls that is until Lyon referred to women as "good breeders."

The "Don't Stop Us Now" campaign slogan for the PCs was in reference to some of the megaprojects they planned to build Manitoba but for many people, the slogan felt like further brutal cuts were pending. Liberal support in Manitoba collapsed and this proved to be the boost the NDP needed to push Howard Pawley's party into power.

Lyon was tossed from power after one term. It would be the last time a right of center faction member of the PCs would lead the party till this day.

There is no doubt that the Sterling Lyon was a committed Manitoban. His time spent on the Constitutional file helped assert that elected legislatures had a final authority over the Charter.

Lyon's departure and the return of the NDP emphasized an urban, rural and northern divide. Nowadays elections are fought over only a few key ridings.

The Progressive Conservatives, always strong in rural areas, realized that they needed to focus on Winnipeg. And to do that usually entailed looking for more progressive and urban members of the PCs.

The years that Lyon spent as a judge were certainly less controversial than those spent in elected office. By all accounts, he was a hard working and respected member of the judiciary.

The latter few years of his life were marked by the ill affects of a car accident suffered years earlier. When he passed away, he was surrounded by his large and extended family.

The Angry and Fearful NDP

Increasingly, we are seeing more aggressive and nasty NDP attacks both on the official and unofficial levels. The TV and print ad campaigns have attacked Hugh McFadyen. This has been the official party response.

The unofficial response is to attack the media for not cheerleading their party. They lash out at the CBC, CJOB and Kick-FM. They fill the comments columns of Free Press and Sun with angry and fearful responses.

The bloggers of the NDP personalize and attack the Tory leader by calling him Hughie. They set up anonymous blogs to attack radio hosts and make accusations that could see them in court. I tried to pose a question on one of the blogs about whether the NDP planned on protesting any of the political shows on campus radio elsewhere across the country and within Winnipeg and was ignored. It would seem their concern was just for The Great Canadian Talk Show.

CBC reporters are referred to as:

individuals posing as reporters but are really just douche-bags

The NDP in Saskatchewan were thoroughly spanked for acting like spoiled brats for their fear and loathing campaign.

I believe some in the NDP are unaware of what a negative ad is. These ads fall into that category. I have explained before and will repeat again: contrast ads are negative ads.

There isn't anything wrong with negative ads but don't deny that you're doing them by referring to the truthiness of them. And don't pretend that that your unofficial campaign isn't making claims and namecalling in support of the NDP.

My guess is that this is likely to backfire if it continues to be over the top as it seems to have been over the last months.

No one is going to appreciate the claims that the NDP government will pay for a stadium no matter how far the cost will rise. Even a Blue Bomber fan is likely to have issues with that.

I suggest the official and unofficial campaigns cool it on the NDP front and maybe the party should come up with an exciting and perhaps, visionary policy platform.

Progressive Conservative AGM Aftermath

The Progressive Conservatives are heading home after their annual general meeting. If there was any disagreement about the direction of the party, it was done behind closed doors.

It helps to have a lead in the polls and an indication that there is a hunger for change in the province.

The CBC is reporting this Sunday that there is a turn to the right in a lot of the country, especially in the suburbs. The federal Tories have to tried to link their fortunes to Tim Horton's. God forbid someone is shown having coffee at Starbucks.

The NDP made some inroads in the suburbs in the last election taking advantage of the strength of a popular leader, mistakes of the opposition and a confident economy.

While the Manitoba economy has performed well, the deficit weighs now on the minds of many. The future expenses of things like the stadium and hydro's power lines from north to south are in flux and the desire for change seems stronger now than any time in the last number years.

All of this spells challenges to the NDP.

Hugh McFadyen met with 200 members this past weekend to chart out the next year in terms of an election campaign. In broad strokes, the Tories will make the issue crime, Manitoba Hydro, hog barns and the stadium.

A few of these issues are well treaded ground for the PCs but they might more resonance now with the rising costs for hydro and crime that is worse now than four years ago.

However, none of this will be enough for the PCs to win an election if they don't have a solid platform. Make a silly promise like on bringing back the Winnipeg Jets and they will pay a price. The platform should be sound, it should be bold and it should be confident.

There are 331 days till the election and the PCs are flush, have 10,000 party members and many are seasoned after the civic election this October. If they run a smooth campaign and present themselves as the agents of change with a sound platform, the NDP will hard pressed to counter. After ten years, it is hard to tap into the desire for change.

As mentioned, I expect the NDP plan a campaign of fear. Fear of the PCs getting into power.

NDP's Month Long Negative Campaign

As I mentioned a while back, I expect there to be an increasing amount of ads from the NDP. It will be interesting to see the spike in them in the next months.

For the next month though we are going to see a negative ad attacking Hugh McFadyen and the Progressive Conservatives. Party brass are going to great pains to call the ads contrast ads.

I think the old adage of if it walks like a duck applies. In fact, most definitions of negative ad campaigns says contrast ads are indeed negative ads.

The ads start Monday and attack McFadyen with the typical fear campaign about the failures on the leader on a raft of policies.

Negative ads often work. They work so well that parties run them with greater frequency than positive ads about themselves.

Who are the ads aimed at? They are aimed at independent voter in an attempt to discourage them from voting one way or the other. The net effect though according to studies is to keep independents at home feeling alienated from the process and allow the base of support of each party to win or lose the election.

There can be consequences to negative ad campaigns. Two of the world's best examples happened within Canadian federal politics in 1993 with a Progressive Conservative ad critical of how Jean Chretien looked and a 2006 ad that the Liberals thought of running about military in the streets if the Conservatives were elected.

The last provincial election had an ad campaign by the provincial PCs that went negative on crime. It fell flat. The over the top fear aspect of it was dismissed despite whatever views people had on the issue to begin with. That, and a poorly run campaign and McFadyen's Tories lost even more than they started with.

The most recent polls have the provincial NDP behind the Tories. We have seen an increasing amount of belligerence from the NDP and from their supporters over the last months. I expect to see it reach a boiling point and stay there the longer the campaign runs.

It remains to be seen whether there will be a backlash as we have seen in other elections from time to time. I expect the NDP government will be flooding the airwaves with more ads touting Manitoba and the plan the government is taking. It will be interesting to see the comparison between this year and last. It is worth a freedom of information request if the government isn't interested in disclosing it.

The PCs won't be exempt from going negative but they have been burned once already in Manitoba by going that way. They will have to be more cautious. Their best bet it to continue to propose change and emphasize the things that seem to be their best asset.

The NDP could have campaigned on change when Greg Selinger was elected by they have opted for a continuation of what we have seen before. This might not be enough for a province that routinely kicks out a party after ten years in office.

Here is the ad: