The Anger of Conservatives in Manitoba

The Conservatives lost the last federal election and the Progressive Conservatives lost the last provincial election in Manitoba. As far as the federal election goes, the Tories were so certain they were going to, they were figuring out the wallpaper in the prime minister's office. After two years of relentless campaigning they almost saw the Liberals win a majority and their own leader lose his seat.

Polling in Manitoba now shows a majority of Conservatives supporting separation. It is a minority position in the overall poll. Some men are so angry and upset that they are all in on western alienation and separation. It is unclear how that translates into a win with a full referendum. It is worth noting that separation parties in the provincial byelections finished third.

There seem to be a lot of conservatives who embrace the 51st state. Certainly there is anger at the election results and in some cases, those that saw their party lost question the electoral system as fixed against them. And by fixed, the suggestion was that Liberals were changing boundaries and stuffing ballots. No amount of evidence could be presented to convince those that believe that. Thankfully, the actual Conservative party didn't make a call to the battlements over losing both the election and the leader's seat. That didn't mean they were happy.

The Liberals are pretty wily. By changing their leader and proroguing Parliament, they changed the calculus. But some of these tactic the Conservatives had done themselves with success. It think what caught Conservatives by surprise is how fast Liberals changes policy platform. Despite calling it cynical and a lie, it ignores how the Liberals have always had right and left components within the party. It is that right that is in power now.

Men are more likely to be separatist than women. And Alberta and Saskatchewan are more likely to have separatist segments of the population than B.C. or Manitoba. In Manitoba it is likely a rural male who thinks on the line of separation. This closely resembles the rest of the west. Those in the city, especially women, are more likely to be in support of a united Canada.

Polls are often snapshots looking backwards. Many conservatives are still stinging from Trudeau and are still stunned the Liberals won with Carney. The popularity if the Liberals and Carney have steadily risen. Even now though some conservatives are mad about Covid, vaccines, the electoral process on a host of issues social and economic. It is unlikely that some on the right will ever forgive the emergency measures. But then again, there is little sympathy from a lot of Canadians who regarded the convoys as being a threat to health and safety.

Carney appears to be managing the premiers fairly well by being open to projects of national importance. Still, Alberta's default position is to criticize the federal government often as a cover for their own performance. Trudeau authorized a full government pipeline that brought more money into Alberta than before and got no credit for it. Harper had no success getting the pipeline through.

Ontario has 15 million people living in the province. Even with the entire western Canada population included, it is smaller than Ontario. For would be separatists it should be obvious that the population of cities in the west outnumbers all of the rural and northern areas. This is important because a lot of separatists are often saying majority rule is unfair. They don't meant the just eastern Canada but cities over rural areas too.

In Manitoba this often mean rural men are angry at people who live in Winnipeg. Does separation mean separating from Winnipeg? These are legitimate questions. If Canada is divisible, does it not mean provinces are as well? And First Nations can easily say they won't separate. Does that mean the province sends the police in? This easily can lead to a civil war.

As mentioned, this is a snapshot on the past months and the present government is not even a year in. Federal-provincial relations seems to be in a much better place than they were a year ago and nation building projects seem to be a focus. Housing and inflation are also on the priority list. All these things combined are likely to take the steam of the separatist agenda.  As this most recent Canada Day has show, the Canadian flag has been reclaimed by those who want a unified Canada. The majority does not want to break up the country.