Canadian Armed Forces artillery soldiers on exercise in Latvia, June 2018.
Canada has long been regarded as the laggard in military spending and its commitment to NORAD, NATO and UN peacekeeping the last few decades. It isn't limited to Liberal governments. It has been shared by Conservative ones as well. NATO makes 2% of GDP spending it's goal for military spending and Canada is around 1.3% despite some big purchases in recent years. The Trudeau government is committed to 1.7% GDP by 2029-30. The new policy plan is $8 billion in more spending in the next five years and $73 billion in next two decades.
It is unknown what the other parties such as the Conservatives and NDP are prepared to support. Presently, with a minority government, the NDP have supported the Liberals with their NATO presence in Latvia and support for Ukraine. The Conservatives haven't said what they would do but there are elements in the party that don't want to continue sending money to Ukraine and want to scale back. This is a tendency being seen with U.S. conservatives as well.
It would be a mistake to think that Conservative times are better times for the Forces when it comes to money and support. For the last few decades, both Liberals and Conservatives have drawn down numbers to what it is. The last prime minister to have 2% of GDP going to the military was Pierre Trudeau. Yes, that Trudeau.
Canada has a significant force in Latvia. It means that the country has no choice but to get more boots recruited as there are shortages up and down the system. Equipment is literally older than the forces using them but decades. And procurement is one of the biggest failures easily over several governments. The government cut the procurement department and there is not enough people there to ensure it isn't a delayed and expensive fiasco every time. Every regional government wants spending in their area and each branch of the military wants every bell and whistle in their equipment till it is a bloated mess.
Meanwhile, the military is short on recruitment by 15% and most it's force capacity of available army, navy and air force assets is around 50%. That is a pretty sorry state of affairs. If Canada requires army help for flood or fire, there is nearly nothing available for that effort. There is a lot of complacency and a general feeling that world threats don't really affect Canada. It takes events such as September 11 to strike home possible dangers. The Russian/Ukrainian conflict demonstrates that fighting elsewhere can result in a massive refugee influx in Canada. It is possible that once the conflict ends in Gaza/Israel that refugees will be arriving here as well. So far the one thousand refugees Canada say will be allowed in and have not been able to leave.
This is the rub of trying to ignore what happens outside of Canadian borders. Whether it be war, pollution, trade or immigration/migration, it doesn't stop from affecting Canada. Don't have an adequate defence? Well, a possible future U.S. President might just ignore Canadian borders and decide for us. That could involve U.S. encroachment or letting others push us around. We have seen that countries like China and India have increasingly taken aggressive stances including with Canada.
The escalation with Iran and Israel is making for a very jittery world response. Too many times we have see how this leads to bigger world problems. Ignoring it is not a viable solution. And policy changes taking years to make is just not fast enough, especially when it comes to recruitment numbers. There are simply too many things going on for Canada that they can't respond to any crisis at the moment.
Ensuring that military ranks are filled has to be an immediate priority. If Canada can't even send troops to battle a fire or flood, it will likely bring down the government. Not being able to provide basic care in times of emergency is what, in part, led to George Bush's demise. Hurricane Katrina showed how stretched out resources were. Fighting on two fronts in Iraq and Afghanistan and now being able to help till it was far too late domestically was a stark moment.
Canada is not only country fretting about their military. Britain and much of Europe is as well. The U.S. always worries about readiness or willingness. It is a fantasy that good sense will prevail and countries won't fight for ideological, religious or any other reason. Russia could have been the biggest and most powerful democracy in Europe but it didn't. It became an expansionist autocracy. China has become expansionist as well and more nationalistic.
The west has it's problems too. The U.S. has not had an adequate immigration and refugee program in decades because it is easier to hammer one side or the other over it in Washington. Canada is no longer is a factor in peacekeeping. The U.K. pulled out of Europe thinking it would be better for them. Some of what they west is doing is selfish and ultimately self-damaging.
How wars are conducted is changing and in some cases reverting back to ways that are closer to WWI than Afghanistan. The use of artillery and long range drones and rockets has every military in the world re-considering their own ability to detect and launch interception but also re-evaluate mobile artillery versus tanks. The tanks in the Ukraine/Russia battle are not obsolete but they have been frequently decimated with losses of people in the tens of thousands. Not since WWII have losses been so devastating.
The recent speech by Trudeau indicates some priorities seems to be higher than others. Canada, for example, has put in orders for 14 P8 anti-submarine aircraft and quadrupled the 9 refueling and transportation aircraft order. The breakdown of the government of Canada plane in India twice was not just an embarrassment, it was security risk. The order of 88 F-35 jets should see first aircraft come in two years. However, the recruiting of pilots and support teams for these planes begins now.
It is the navy build up that will be the most painful in terms of how long and how much. It keeps pushing one class of ships out of priority in favour of others, The supply ships literally were kaput and the government had to push ahead with a single temporary refurbished ship. Work on two new supply ships has delayed the 2 Coast Guard ships by years. And this is kind of how it has gone on for decades with ships: Way behind schedule, way over budget and the ones built often have problems.
Governments have shifted back and forth between Liberal and Conservative multiple times during this sorry state. There is little reason to believe that NDP or any other policy might be better. In fact, there are elements within other parties that would likely accelerate the decline. The leader of the NDP has already said he believes the policy of 2% for military spending is arbitrary. The policy book has defence listed on the last page and not in very much detail.
If the NDP ever did get into power, they might not do the same as the Liberals and Conservatives. That isn't good. It often seems we go into war setting in dreadful shape. Our entry into WWII was marked by a disgraceful lack of people, training, equipment and purpose. Thankfully, Canada found itself but the sense of security in doing nothing is present today just as it was back then.
The amount of ice free days in the north presents opportunities as well as problems. Nuclear submarines already pass through the north under the ice and there is little Canada can do about it. Nuclear icebreakers from Russia crush through the ice and can go where no Canadian ship can go. Other countries, including the U.S., have stated their aspirations in the north. Russia has much more developed plan for the north and it doesn't stop at their border. It is worth keeping in mind how Russia thinks about the border with Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has made everyone think about how conventions are now broken. If Sweden and Finland give up their neutrality to come under NATO's umbrella, it is difficult to ignore. While it might seem far away, Russia is in our north. Very close. It certainly isn't lost on the Trudeau and the Liberal government. To their credit, they have been very supportive of Ukraine in terms of money, arms and getting people out to safety. And it isn't over by a longshot.
Germany used to say to Canada no tanks, no trade. We could hear those words again or something to that effect. Trump has certainly said a country' security may be in jeopardy if they don't meet the 2% threshold. Even with the increase announced we will still be $8 billion a year short from that. It may reach 2% when some projected are costed. New submarines have no price at all and yet government says they are considering it. We have four subs now, the Navy has asked for 12. Some want them to be nuclear. If Australia can go nuclear maybe Canada does too. There are already opinion pieces in Toronto saying Canada faces a bigger danger from climate change and is against the subs.
Still, other editorials are starting to acknowledge how unprepared Canada is in terms of engaging our forces for even things related to climate change such as support for communities in Canada. That starts with having people available which we do not have enough of.
The upcoming budget at least lays out increases in spending for the military. It remains to be seen if things can truly be accelerated.
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