The Forks Comeback 2023

Early in the new year, The Forks turned around their numbers for people coming the site to pre-pandemic levels. Measured by trackers at entrances and seen in actual numbers at events, January 2023 looked more like January 2019. Space to gather has been a hallmark of The Forks and key events, unique merchants, special food experiences and tourist attractions makes it different from other areas. Crime scares and protests groups have had an impact but renewed security may be helping. Random attacks cannot be dismissed as overreacting. If people are afraid they will stop going to a place. In fact, they will flee. And the recent occurrence of protest groups using The Forks for gatherings can and has resulted in problems. One of the reasons in the past we have not seen this is that the park area has been that it is intensely busy with festivals, concerts and recreation. Hard to have a protest when so many people are there already for other reasons. Usually celebrating.

The Forks has to walk a fine balance. Their next stage of development announced some time this year will probably be some sort of apartments across from the Human Rights Museum. The risk is that new residents take a dislike to some of the long term activities that have existed for decades such as concerts and festivals. Or perhaps new residents ask that the more than the century railway line be moved once apartments are up. It is not beyond the pale. It may be that new residents ask that the skate board park be removed. Certain we know that fireworks will no longer be part of Forks celebrations. Perhaps they will get an order for them to be stopped at Goldeyes Park as well.

Things evolve to be sure. Assiniboine Park no longer has fireworks and the same applies to The Forks. Tens of thousands used to go to both and stay for the fireworks. Arguments can be made about how it scares animals and annoys a great number of people but, in the case of Assiniboine Park, it means they shut down for the night quite early for activities. In recent years there have been calls to end concerts outdoors as well even if they earlier in the day. If The Forks goes down the same route, it is likely most outdoor activities might be limited due to residential complaints, especially at night.

The parkade at Portage Place continues to be cash injection every year at The Forks, They have at least moved to charge for parking that they do have including their own parkade which for the longest time was free. They have also started renewing leases at more market set rates. Local innovation in food, retail and recreation has differentiated it from a regular mall. Returning revenue into improving the area marks it differently as well since the money isn't sent to investors in Toronto.

The recent offer from True North to buy the land lease and parkade along with the mall at Portage Place looks to net The Forks $34.5 million. They have publicly stated that they would put it in savings and use the interest to fund things. Do the government parties have a say on this windfall? That is a lot of unassigned money.

Sustainability is important because after the last sections are developed, it is unrealistic to think that cash injections from three levels of government will come. There are indications that revenue to support the site and the programming therein is a priority.  That comes from charging for parking they have on site, lease money as landlord of the area and site rentals for festivals. Mandate creep could see The Forks tasked to develop other land but we have see what happen from the North Portage experience. The Forks diverts the money to themselves. In a lot of ways, North Portage would have better staying as a separate entity as revenue would have stayed in the area. The Forks, on the other hand, would have gone bankrupt in 1994.

Winnipeg downtown is not the only place trying to pivot during the pandemic for downtown areas. Toronto has found it very painful and the closure of Nordstrom's in Eaton Centre and many other retailer has hit hard. And like a lot of North America, people are slow to return to the office. Nevertheless it is growing and plans are for 100 new condo towers a year for the next ten years. But will people be working in offices or from home? And what will become of downtown office towers and attractions? Or old neighbourhoods? Below is Toronto in 1989.

In the 1980s through 1990s Toronto was like Winnipeg in that it had football fields of parking space and industrial land/rail yards open. Above from Toronto Archives in 1989 is what Toronto looked like. The area in red was the railyards. In 2023, the entire area is filled with offices, condos/apartments and the like. However, the 1990s were marked by a real estate collapse was pretty widespread across Canada including Toronto and Winnipeg. It really is the last years that Toronto residential towers have exploded so that they literally dwarf the five big banks downtown.

Both Toronto and Winnipeg developed their rail yards and in the case of Toronto, their port. It can be argued which did better. I think Winnipeg did better at creating public space and a sense of centrality to the city that Portage and Main lost or never had, Toronto certainly created big sport and convention centre facilities but in all that rail land, where is the great public space? It is all condos now.

Sometimes being about 20 years behind has helped Winnipeg avoid mistakes other urban areas have committed before us. For example, Calgary demolished its warehouse district. Toronto in a rush to fill waterfront area with condos had insiders grab units and the buildings created a wall of glass and concrete from the shore. At The Forks, development has been slow and thoughtful and each piece has been well considered. Once again, it was money from Portage Place that made it possible not too just fill it with condos.

Developers would love to build in The Forks. There are really only two spaces left but is unlikely a large tower or two that will be built because of the scale. Public and political pressures will limit the height and frown on restricted public access. It will more clear what comes soon enough. Presently, the parking lots are revenue generators so The Forks are not in a rush to see them closed for development that could take two to three years. The question of having public parkades below the new development and/or public transit/active transportation is still being discussed. 

The above picture sourced from The Forks. The Human Rights Museum is a national museum next to a national park. The expectation is that the area will always have school buses, public transit and active transportation to it. Accessible parking, loading zones, tourist parking need to be accounted for. When Railside and Parcel 4 are removed, will they have a public component for a tourist/visitor to park, walk through, get a meal and access The Forks attractions be part of the equation?

Picture from Forks documents. The rail line makes for a walled area for the The Forks and Goldeyes Park. The shaded red area is where announcements will be made in due course of what will go up on the surface parking lots. There is certainly enough parking just outside the rail wall. However, it is beyond the mandate of The Forks so matters of security, accessibility and availability end at Main Street. Why this matters is that should be of high concern to The Forks of how people come to The Forks. Do they avoid it because it is too far away, too unsafe, hard for for those with mobility issues? Is it too expensive? No place to bring a tour bus in? A school bus. No place to have buses waiting? The very long term success of The Forks turns on these questions.

Ironically, the other charge in the North Portage Forks mandate, Portage Place might have a more solid future once it is sold and have more opportunities for future public and private investment. The above picture from Forks documents shows the huge area it covers. And yet other parts of downtown are in need of some sort of planning to help with sustainability.  It is a little bit like whack-a-mole. One area of downtown gets attention only for another are to collapse. Recent example, the closure of the The Bay.

The 2023 comeback for The Forks will have to focus on safety with the large numbers of people that come through. This is not just limited to crime but in terms of crowd control, traffic control, water safety and events that are celebrations of community. It would be a shame if the Forks has to shut out mid-evening for events because of noise concerns. As mentioned, fireworks will just continue somewhere else...like Assiniboia Downs. They just won't be accessible to those without a car.

Sometimes your success causes you to cancel things because of neighbourhood rejection. Things like Days of Wine on Roses were cancelled on Corydon and New Year's celebrations in Osborne Village because business and residents reject them. And so the concern at The Forks is that someone says: no more parades. And maybe that happens as people push to make the area less friendly to those outside their region.

There seems some certainty that in 2023/2024/2025, The Forks will have tens of millions from Portage Place sale. And even without much of a coordinated development plan for downtown, there are a number of projects that will all likely be coming on stream at the same time. Expanded hotels, apartment buildings and office towers are going up within blocks of The Forks. This contributes to more people living and working close to the largest green space by the Red River. Moreover, more traffic on riverwalks/sidewalks, skating paths and biking lanes are a reflection of how close some people are to the area. It doesn't make sense if you live in an apartment in St. Boniface a baseball throw away from a festival in The Forks to drive your car less than several minutes away.

If safety and public access to The Forks remain a priority, it can succeed in attracting people and unique stores, restaurants and festivals. The success of the area going forward should trigger further exciting development in nearby opening spaces. Surface parking lots are a poor use of downtown space. This is why True North chose to develop the former Eaton's parking lot into buildings and a square to enhance the value of their entertainment district. There are 200 parking spaces underground which is about the amount that the same amount occupied by the surface lot.

Winnipeg remains a car city but certain neighbourhoods like Osborne, St. Boniface, parts of Henderson and others make it possible to actually walk to a grocer, bank or pharmacy. That is to say, they are closer and easier to step out of your door and walk to than to get in your car and drive. Even in Brightwater, there are plenty of people who are in walking distance of the grocery store and other amenities.

The Forks is many things but it isn't that neighbourhood described above. If people live across from the Human Rights Museum, The Forks Market nearby is not a full grocery, nor pharmacy or local bank. More of the empty spaces near The Forks will have to be filled with such things or residents will have to head out of the area to patronize them. It isn't likely that a large national grocer will be built on the site but numbers of residents spreading out along Waterfront and two apartments built on Main in the last year means means a place like Winnipeg Square might service nearby residents longer hours and offer more grocery items at their Shoppers Drug Mart.

The real test this year for The Forks will be how they handle summer starting in June. There will be many assessing the safety of large festivals, how Canada Day will be celebrated and if protests and rallies become increasingly part of the public space as a substitute for the Legislature. And most importantly, will attractions becomes less public or require a charge, Will their hours be reduced? Will attractions be pushed out? All eyes will be watching on this. The comeback will only become permanent if the vast majority of people believe we all have ownership in the area.