tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5854734498362657333.post2119403943524653706..comments2024-03-18T14:23:35.602-05:00Comments on Observations, Reservations, Conversations: Brian Pallister - Leader of Progressive ConservativesJohn Dobbinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16469872007840292315noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5854734498362657333.post-5658470271667844112012-07-29T23:31:05.019-05:002012-07-29T23:31:05.019-05:00Analyst: Daycare might take some political capital...Analyst: Daycare might take some political capital. Kindergarten wouldn't. And the NDP would be on the defensive.John Dobbinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16469872007840292315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5854734498362657333.post-12695961809605634342012-07-29T23:30:01.266-05:002012-07-29T23:30:01.266-05:00Seven: The polls at around 2006 had the Liberals t...Seven: The polls at around 2006 had the Liberals trailing and this continued right up to the election. Howard came under tremendous pressure for the war, the environment and for arrogance.<br /><br />They were headed for a fall to be sure.<br /><br />Paul Martin calling an enquiry into sponsorship was the body blow that kept on delivering. A lot of things hurt the Liberals but the anger over this led to an impending defeat.<br /><br />The issues of toll roads was so strong and so red hot in the campaign in New Brunswick that the PCs finally had gotten an issue with legs. They thumped the Liberals as a result and propelled Lord into office. <br /><br />George Bush senior had a recession at hand, massive military cuts and his own party mad as hell at tax increases. They threw Bush under the bus.<br /><br />Major issues can push out long serving governments to be certain. However, we can see long term governing parties like the former federal Liberals, former Ontario PCs and now, Alberta PCs.<br /><br />Might the NDP be one of those long term governing parties?<br /><br />Tory insiders writing off the new Tory leader without putting up an alternative? Let me state the ass kicking should be self administered for such griping.<br /><br />I agree caucus should elect the leader. The federal Liberals would save a ton of money and might actually produce a leader supported in a meaningful way.John Dobbinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16469872007840292315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5854734498362657333.post-43012515981916354642012-07-29T14:04:57.692-05:002012-07-29T14:04:57.692-05:00McFadyen pledges to pave back lanes and not cut se...McFadyen pledges to pave back lanes and not cut services were viewed as a betrayal by conservative Tories. There's no way Pallister would get away with provincial daycare and remain party leader for long.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03478584067447488835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5854734498362657333.post-42764502651109325552012-07-29T12:06:10.908-05:002012-07-29T12:06:10.908-05:00It is often when an administration appears to be u...It is often when an administration appears to be unbeatable that it is at the greatest risk. <br /><br />During a long L.A.-Sydney flight in October 2006, I remember reading an Australian newspaper article suggesting that the Liberal-National coalition government seemed to be permanent, complete with a cartoon showing then-PM John Howard driving a steamroller over his opponents. Within 14 months, his "permanent" government was out of office, with Howard himself having lost his Sydney constituency.<br /><br />Other governments have also seemed invincible, but turned out to be anything but. As Paul Martin prepared to take office in 2003, a Liberal government seemed sure to remain in office until the decade's end. <br /><br />As Camille Theriault, long considered a man destined to be premier, took over in New Brunswick in the late '90s, few thought his career would be cut short by a 33-year old former student politician named Bernard Lord. <br /><br />And then there was George Bush Sr., who seemed a sure bet for re-election as the Gulf War ended in 1991, only to lose to an obscure Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton in 1992.<br /><br />The best medium-range predictor of whether or not a government will get re-elected is its age. People get bored with old governments the same way they get tired of old clothing styles, old TV shows and old fads. Once the "it's time for a change" mindset sets in, it's extremely difficult to reverse. By late 2015, the NDP administration will be the second-longest serving government in Manitoba history.<br /><br />Another good predictor is organizational strength. The NDP clearly had the upper hand in the 2011 election, gaining control of the agenda early in the campaign and leaving the PCs on the defensive. Their ongoing sense of discipline will help them in 2015, but they will still be weakened by the absence of Michael Balagus as campaign director. <br /><br />Pallister's hopes of becoming premier will be tied to whether or not he can make the PCs the more organized and disciplined of the two parties. If he succeeds, he could be premier in 2015-16. If he fails, the NDP could win an exceptionally rare fifth term.<br /><br />In short, though some (including one Tory I know) have written off Pallister for the next election, as an independent myself I'm not so sure it would be wise to do that.<br /><br />A brief word on the leadership race: I received comments in response to one of my previous posts on this same subject that suggested that finances are a major concern for prospective leadership candidates, both in terms of the actual cost of running and in foregone private sector income. Though I doubt we'll see much change here in Canada, this would seem to make a case for a party caucus electing its own leader as is done in the U.K., Australia and New Zealand.The View from Sevenhttp://theviewfromseven.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5854734498362657333.post-56267489661240004862012-07-29T11:22:03.269-05:002012-07-29T11:22:03.269-05:00Very good post John. You raise some very applicabl...Very good post John. You raise some very applicable points.PLPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484029361366857553noreply@blogger.com